World Series Manifesto: Rangers vs. Cardinals

Every year thousands of experts and fans make World Series predictions in April. And, every year, virtually every single person is wrong. I would imagine 2011 was no different. While many people may have picked the Texas Rangers to return to the World Series, I doubt that there are too many people (outside of St. Louis) that genuinely thought the Cardinals were going to win the National League Pennant. That's the beauty of baseball; anything can happen during the 162-game season, and even crazier things happen in October. With that in mind, I've broken down the 2011 World Series matchup by position, in order to determine which team has the edge at every spot and, of course, make my prediction on which team will be MLB Champions.

Catcher

Mike Napoli—Rangers

Yadier Molina—Cardinals

Napoli has been solid for Texas all year, but the edge goes to Molina. He is the best defensive catcher in baseball and has been hitting the ball really well. Napoli is serviceable behind the plate and can hit the ball out of the ballpark, but Molina controls the game from behind the plate and makes even the best base runners think twice about stealing. Plus, Yadier has been driving the ball as of late, making him even more valuable to St. Louis. Molina may very well be the best catcher in the game.

Edge: Cardinals

First Base

Michael Young—Rangers

Albert Pujols—Cardinals

I love Michael Young, and he’s been a really good player for a long time, but clearly the edge goes to Albert Pujols. Not only is he the best first baseman in the game today, but he’s probably one of the five best right-handed hitters of all-time. He was absolutely on fire in the NLCS and I see no reason why that’ll change in the World Series. So, Young may be pretty good with the bat and above average in the field, but Pujols is arguably the Greatest of All-Time with the bat and a Gold Glove fielder. This one’s a no-brainer.

Edge: Cardinals

Second Base

Ian Kinsler—Rangers

Nick Punto—Cardinals

Two very different players, but both have been crucial to their teams getting this far. Kinsler is your atypical second baseman and leadoff hitter. He hit 32 home runs during the season while only hitting .255, but his defense is pretty good and he can run. Punto only played in 63 games this year but is a tough-nosed all-around baseball player; the type of guy Tony La Russa always gets the most out of. He goes balls to the wall at all times, but lacks the talent to be any more than a complementary piece in this series. Kinsler has the ability to be the most valuable player in any series, and that’s why he unquestionably gets the edge over Punto.

Edge: Rangers

Third Base

Adrian Beltre—Rangers

David Freese—Cardinals

How about David Freese? The St. Louis native overcame minor League injuries to make the Cardinals' postseason roster and be named the NLCS MVP. He’s hit .425 in October and leads the Cards in postseason RBIs, all while manning the hot corner for St. Louis very well. However, Adrian Beltre is the best defensive third baseman in the league, and rakes in the heart of the Rangers' order. His performance will be paramount in the Texas lineup because he’s responsible for protecting both Josh Hamilton and Michael Young. He struggled a bit in the ALCS with the bat, but I still have to give him the edge over Freese because of his defense and his season, and career, long track record behind the plate. Although, this position is a lot closer than anyone would have guessed a month ago.

Edge: Rangers

Shortstop

Elvis Andrus—Rangers

Rafael Furcal—Cardinals

Maybe I’m crazy, but it feels like Rafael Furcal is going to be the X-Factor in this series. He struggled with injuries all year and hasn’t swung the bat well this postseason, but he’s played tremendous defense and it seems like every time he does something good offensively, great things happen for the Cardinals. St. Louis doesn’t need him to hit great this series, it would just be a luxury. The same holds true for Andrus, actually. He’s hit a lousy .205 in the playoffs, but the Rangers have managed to overcome his slump. Both guys play Gold Glove-caliber defense, but Andrus gets a slight edge because he’s a little more dangerous on the base paths than a soon-to-be 34 year old Furcal, and has a higher ceiling on the plate. It’s close, but Texas has the better of the two shortstops.

Edge: Rangers

Left Field

David Murphy/Endy Chavez—Rangers

Matt Holliday—Cardinals

Even 80 percent of Matt Holliday is better than the left field platoon the Rangers have. Texas may have the better defensive outfielder, but Holliday’s bat is so superior that it gives the Cardinals a huge advantage in LF. Holliday appears to be 100 percent now and is starting to drive the ball to all fields. He’s hit .375 in the playoffs and has to keep swinging well so Berkman sees more fastballs early in the count. I suspect David Murphy will get all the starts in left for the Rangers, but stranger things have happened. Murphy has been swinging the bat well and, even though he seems to struggle with lefties, it’s not like Endy Chavez is a left-handed killer. Whichever one Texas decides to parade out there, Holliday will be far and away the better left fielder in the series. This positional edge goes to the Cardinals.

Edge: Cardinals

Center Field

Josh Hamilton—Rangers

John Jay—Cardinals

John Jay seems like one of those guys you can’t help but root for, but he’s struggled at the plate this postseason and, compared to Josh Hamilton, he loses every time. Hamilton is the reigning AL MVP and the 2010 ALCS MVP and, when healthy, one of the most dangerous hitters in MLB. Watching him play defense defies physics. Nobody that size should be playing Gold Glove center field like that, but Hamilton is the total package and the best CF in the game today. So, Jay is a nice story and may be somebody you root for, but Hamilton is the center field king and gives Texas a huge edge at this outfield position.

Edge: Rangers

Right Field

Nelson Cruz—Rangers

Lance Berkman—Cardinals

Lance Berkman is the NL Comeback Player of the Year, but seems to be wearing out in October and has struggled at the plate. So much so that Alan Craig started a game in right field over Berkman in the NLCS. Even so, he’s one of the five best switch hitters in baseball history (Mantle, Chipper, Murray, Rose and him) and can still hit any pitch out of the ballpark. Nelson Cruz is David Freese, but three years earlier. Cruz was riddled with injuries his entire professional career, but finally figured out how to stay healthy and is proving why it was worth waiting on him for so many years. As much as I love Berkman, the edge goes to Texas in right field. Cruz has been on fire at the plate (6 HRs in ALCS) and is way better defensively than Big Puma. Don’t think for a second that Berkman isn’t capable of hitting .500 for the series and driving in 12 runs, but Cruz is the better baseball player right now and appears to a major X-factor for Texas.

Edge: Rangers

Starting Rotation

Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson—Cardinals

CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison—Rangers

After the pitiful pitching performances we saw in the Championship Series, and the capabilities of both teams’ lineups, the official over/under for quality starts in this series is three. I’d strongly suggest the under considering that, of the eight starters, only Carpenter has pitched a dominant game this postseason. Wilson has an ERA over eight and their bullpen has more wins in the playoffs than the starters. Actually, the best Rangers' starter has been Colby Lewis (3.86 ERA, 1 quality start), but he can give up the gopher ball with the best of them, and is always a threat to surrender the five-run inning. The Cardinals' staff hasn’t fared much better. Sure, Carpenter threw a complete game shutout against Philadelphia in Round 1, but he’s given up seven runs in eight innings in his other two starts and hasn’t looked like the ace of the staff. The rest of the rotation has been nothing short of a disaster. Garcia (5.74 ERA), Jackson (5.84) and Lohse (7.45) have all been train wrecks in October and have been bailed out by the St. Louis bullpen in every start in the playoffs. One of them, at the least, will have to right the ship and have a great start or the Cardinals are going to be in serious trouble.

Based on what we’ve seen this postseason, I have to give the starting pitching edge to the Rangers. The Cardinals may have the best pitcher in the series (Carpenter), but Texas has four of the next five best starters. Of course, saying Texas has a better staff than St. Louis in this World Series is like giving credit to the Dolphins for being better than the Colts right now. Both are absolutely horrendous. The side that corrects its starting rotation and shuts down the opposing team in multiple starts will be the team that wins this series. Nobody is expecting anything from these rotations, so anything either team does get is considered a bonus. Maybe this won’t be the highest scoring World Series in history, but it’s definitely a possibility. However, at this point, the Texas rotation is the lesser of the two evils.

Edge: Rangers

Bullpen

After reading about the starting pitchers, you’re probably wondering how these teams even got this far. The answer is simple: Their bullpens. Both bullpens have been lights out all postseason, but skeptics are beginning to wonder if both sides can keep it up. Count me as one of those skeptics. It just doesn’t make sense that the Cardinals' bullpen, an Achilles’ heel all year, can suddenly be the most dominant bullpen in the league. That’s what has happened though; sometimes things just defy all logic. The success of the Rangers' relievers is more explicable. They had a solid bullpen all year and, with starters on such short leashes, Alexi Ogando may be the single most important pitcher in the World Series. So far in the playoffs he has 2 wins, 4 holds, 12 strikeouts in 10 innings and an ERA of 0.87. That’s dental floss thin. He has bailed out Texas time and again this October and, with the much-needed rest before the Series starts, there’s no reason to suspect his dominance won’t continue.

Both closers, Feliz and Motte, have electric stuff and should be able to protect any lead come the ninth inning. Of course, that’s what we thought of Mo Rivera in 2001 and we all know how that turned out. Neither team is good enough to give away games and still win the series, so it’s imperative that both closers take care of business when they’re called upon. That will be easier for Feliz because he was with Texas last year and knows about the pressure of the World Series. Jason Motte was a minor league catcher that happened to throw 98 mph and is now the closer for the NL Champions. If anyone is going to get rattled in the spotlight, it’s him. With that in mind, I have to give the edge to the Rangers in the bullpen. St. Louis has been fantastic but Texas has the better setup man and closer, and both are more proven than the relievers the Cardinals have.

Edge: Rangers

X-Factors

I’m not alone in this belief, but Ron Washington being one of the worst managers in baseball is a huge factor in this series. You can hide poor decision making in the American League because you have a DH and never have to worry about taking out your pitcher or a double switch. Now, Washington is going to have to manage by National League rules for, potentially, four games and I’ve got this strong inkling that he’s going to screw up a managerial decision at some point in this World Series. If he costs them a game, Texas’ title hopes will be doomed.

I touched on this earlier, but Rafael Furcal is going to have to play a major part in this series if St. Louis is going to win. When Furcal gets on base, good things happen. He’s exciting to watch on a ball in the gap, and his leadoff success will set the tone for the rest of the St. Louis lineup. They can still win without him, but Furcal having success in this series will make the Cardinals very difficult to beat.

For the Rangers, CJ Wilson is going to be the key. Not only is he expected to be their ace and go toe-to-toe with Chris Carpenter, but his success or failure will be the difference of about $25 million as a free agent this winter. As it is, Wilson will pitch games one and five and, if he loses both those, Texas is going to have a hard time winning this series. Besides that, Wilson isn’t going to get the five-year/$80+ million deal he’s seeking. That’s a lot of pressure on one guy, but it’s pressure the Rangers fully expect him to handle.

Verdict

So I guess at this point you’d probably like a prediction. I’m going to have to take the Texas Rangers to win the series. They have a slightly better starting rotation and bullpen, and a comparable lineup to the Cardinals. Considering St. Louis has the best player on the planet (Pujols) and possibly the two best players in the series (Pujols, Holliday), it wouldn’t surprise me if the Cardinals won it, but the Rangers are the better baseball team. At some point, the St. Louis bullpen has to implode and they don’t appear to have the starting pitching to take the pressure off the relievers. So, while I have as much faith in Ron Washington as a manager as I do in the government to fix the economy, I still believe the Rangers win the World Series and atone for last year’s loss to the Giants. Even if it is in spite of their manager.

Prediction: Rangers win in 6

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