NFL Picks Week 6: Minnesota Vikings and More Underdog Locks to Cover

When it comes to betting on NFL football, most of us don't really know what we're doing, and that's why new casinos are seemingly being built on a daily basis in Las Vegas. With that said, though, even the world's best oddsmakers make mistakes, so there are certainly games that are ripe to exploit every week.

Whether we can identify those games is a completely different story, though. There are a lot of interesting lines for Week 6's games, but I see plenty of upset potential as several underdogs are being a bit underrated in my opinion.

Here are four underdogs that I consider to be locks to cover this week, and in some cases, locks to win outright.

Miami Dolphins

Despite an 0-4 start, the Miami Dolphins have played much better than many would think. They were able to keep it close against the likes of the New England Patriots, Houston Texans and San Diego Chargers and let a win slip away against the Cleveland Browns.

The Dolphins lost starting quarterback Chad Henne for the season, so Matt Moore will take over under center. Miami had its bye week at a good time as Moore was able to get better acclimated to the offensive system and rookie running back Daniel Thomas was afforded some time to recover from his hamstring injury.

Miami will face the reeling New York Jets on the road on Monday night in what is a near must-win situation for the Jets. New York has lost three straight games and is beginning to fall behind New England and the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East race.

Because of that desperation, the Jets are seven-point favorites, but that seems awfully hefty for a sliding team like New York. The Jets have been awful against the run this season, so the Dolphins will certainly pound the rock with Thomas. Because of that the Dolphins have a good chance to win the time of possession battle and keep the game close.

Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts have predictably started off the 2011 season very poorly due to the absence of All-Pro quarterback Peyton Manning. The Colts may be 0-5, but they have quietly played much better in recent weeks with Curtis Painter at quarterback over Kerry Collins.

If one or two plays had gone differently, then the Colts could have easily beaten the Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs over the past three weeks and could be sitting at 3-2 atop the AFC South rather than in the league's basement.

The Colts will have another challenging game on Sunday against the upstart Cincinnati Bengals. The young Bengals have surprised many by starting 3-2 under the leadership of rookie quarterback Andy Dalton and a very underrated defensive unit.

Even though the Bengals are better team than the Colts right now, it is interesting that they are favored by seven. Cincinnati was expected to be one of the league's worst teams prior to the season and have flown under the radar as underdogs. This reversal of roles may prove too much for the youthful Bengals on Sunday.

Buffalo Bills

Along with the Detroit Lions the Buffalo Bills are probably the NFL's most pleasant surprise thus far in the 2011 season. The Bills are 4-1 and could easily be 5-0 if not for a blown call late in their loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Even so, the Bills have impressive wins over the New England Patriots, Oakland Raiders and Philadelphia Eagles and are in the driver's seat in the AFC East. With all that said, many still don't believe in Buffalo's rag-tag group, and that notion is buoyed by the fact that they are three-point underdogs against the New York Giants this weekend.

The Giants are coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Seattle Seahawks and are a turnover machine on offense, but they are still favored for whatever reason. The Bills lead the league in interceptions and Giants quarterback Eli Manning throws picks like its his job at times.

Also, New York's defense is still compromised by injuries, and even if both Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck play, Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is capable of getting rid of the ball quickly. Every advantage points to Buffalo in this game, so I fully expect them to win outright.

Minnesota Vikings

With a record of 1-4, the 2011 season hasn't been kind to the Minnesota Vikings thus far, but there is reason to believe that they are ready to turn things around after a dominant 34-10 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5.

The Vikings held leads in each of their first four games, but blew all of them in starting 0-4. All of the games were close, though, as Minnesota has yet to lose by more than a touchdown. One of the biggest reason for their collapses was the fact that they didn't stick with Adrian Peterson and the running game long enough.

Minnesota fully committed to Peterson last week, though, and it paid huge dividends. In all likelihood the Vikings will employ the same gameplan on Sunday night against the Chicago Bears. The Bears were killed on the ground by the Detroit Lions and Jahvid Best last week, but they are still three-point favorites against the Vikings.

If the Vikings run the ball at will, then there isn't much Chicago will be able to do to stop it. Also, the Vikings have an excellent pass rush with Jared Allen and Brian Robison on the ends that will probably give Chicago's struggling offensive line big problems. Because of those factors, I think Minnesota will win on Sunday and win comfortably.