5 Scenarios Where the 49ers Don't Win the NFC West

The San Francisco 49ers might actually be in the unenviable position of being the favorites to win the NFC West. It is unenviable because we have seen this dance before, San Francisco has been the trendy pick to win the division over the course of the last few preseason's prior to 2011.

A lot of this has to do with San Francisco being in the weakest division in the NFL, but more of it actually has to do with the talent this team possesses. They are the most talented team in the division. 

Still, it isn't like San Francisco doesn't have major issues and concerns moving forward. They are unable to put up big plays on offense, the running game hasn't gotten going, the offensive line is one of the worst in the league and their pass defense is average. 

Today, probably to the chagrin of most of you, I am going to focus on five scenarios where San Francisco doesn't take the NFC West crown. 

5. The Secondary Regresses and Doesn't Hold Up Down the Stretch

You cannot help but be impressed by the 49ers new additions to the secondary. Carlos Rogers is doing a stand-up job covering receivers on the outside, mostly in one-one situations. Through three games, he is among the league leaders with five passes defended and actually caught an interception, imagine that. Donte Whitner also impressed a great deal before being injured early on against Cincinnati last week. These are the 49ers two best players in the secondary right now.

Who is going to step up at the corner position opposite Carlos Rogers? Shawntae Spencer has barely seen action in the first three games and doesn't appear to be much of a factor right now. Tarell Brown has played adequate in coverage, but probably isn't more than a nickel corner at this point. Tramaine Brock does have two interceptions (one on a hail mary) and might be the long term answer, but still needs more seasoning.

The free safety position has to worry you a little bit too. Madieu Williams just hasn't been that good in coverage thus far this season, which continues a downward trend for the veteran safety. Almost everyone was happy to see Dashon Goldson back on the field last week against Cincinnati, but I don't think he is suited well to be a cover safety in the NFL. 

San Francisco has games coming up this season against teams with far superior talent at wide receiver than they have in the secondary. Philadelphia, Detroit, Baltimore and Pittsburgh come to mind first. 

If the 49ers are unable to get the coverage necessary to succeed down field, it could be the downfall to their season. 

4. Coaching and Play Calling

No one is happier to see Jim Harbaugh manning the sideline more than me right now. After all, that previous coaching staff can be defined as (expletive here); it is a breath of fresh air.

Still, I found myself scratching my head and having flashbacks of Jimmy Raye and Mike Singletary from last season. I understand that Jim Harbaugh is a rookie head coach and still needs to gain valuable experience, but some of these "mistakes" and "bad calls" seem obvious to the educated football mind. 

From his mis-communication with Frank Gore on the coin flip prior to San Francisco's season opener to not challenging the Michael Crabtree touchdown last week, there has been a couple different bone-headed mistakes. Still, those are going to happen every once in a while.

My major issue has been with the play calling. Alex Smith has more than shown himself capable of handling more of a role in the offense, but Harbaugh appears intent on holding him back some. A lot of this could have to do with San Francisco's confidence in their defense and lack of confidence in their offensive line. Still, it makes you wonder. 

Alex Smith needs to be given the reigns of the offense and San Francisco needs to start utilizing more spread formations. It is obvious that this is where the comfort level sits with Smith, Vernon Davis, Josh Morgan and Michael Crabtree. Why not do it then? 

My other primary concern is with the play of the offensive line (I will get into more detail about that later), but it doesn't seem that Mike Solari and Tom Drevno have really improved this unit with their "coaching up."

Instead it seems that certain players have even regressed over the course of the first three games: Chilo Rachal and Anthony Davis come to mind first. You can blame the players all you want, but coaching needs to be able to help fix some of the offensive line issues. 

3. Alex Smith Reverts Back to Old Form and Disappoints Once Again

You have to admit that Alex Smith has played relatively well early on this season. He has a quarterback rating of over 90 and has committed only one turnover. Still. the 49ers aren't asking him to do too much at this point. Instead, they are depending on the former No. 1 pick to be a game manager and nothing else. 

While this has worked so far, at some point Alex Smith is going to have to beat opposing defenses down field and open up the offense. Of course, it takes a different schematic approach for that to happen. San Francisco started playing more spread sets against Cincinnati last week, which is a strength of Alex Smith. If they can continue to add that to the mix, his chances at success are greatly improved. 

Alex Smith has a track record of disappointing the fan base here in San Francisco. He usually follows a solid performance with an absolutely horrible display of quarterback play. Sometimes, Smith has even butchered the position so much that a player like Troy Smith gets the call instead. 

Although, Alex Smith has been extremely consistent and above-average over his last eight starts, I still have that evil monkey in the back of my head telling me "don't buy into the hype."

If Alex Smith regresses, isn't able to manage the game or makes a lot of mistakes when San Francisco does open up the offense, it will spell doom for their season. Once again, a major part of the 49ers success is relying on the enigmatic Alex Smith. 

2. Frank Gore and San Francisco's Rush Offense Continues to Struggle

I was willing to give Frank Gore the benefit of the doubt over the first two games, San Francisco's offensive line couldn't open up a hole if their collective lives depended on it. The 49ers conservative play calling also pushed eight men into the box and limited any daylight that No. 21 could get. 

Then last week came against the Cincinnati Bengals. Jim Harbaugh opened up the offense a little bit, there weren't as many eight man fronts, but still Frank Gore couldn't get it going. He looks to have lost a half of step or so this season, which makes a big difference in the grand scheme of things. 

I am okay with all this. However, the things that concerned me the most were mental lapses and a possibility that Gore wasn't playing as hard as he could have. This floored me, Gore is one of the most passionate players in the entire league, but he just didn't seem all that interested last week.

The missed block on an Alex Smith sack really had me irate. It looked like he didn't even try to block the on-coming pass rusher. Instead, he allowed the Bengals player a free shot at Alex Smith. This just isn't acceptable. 

Now, it appears that Frank Gore was injured during the game and not a 100 percent. So, I guess we are back at square one in terms of trying to assign blame. 

Either way, if San Francisco cannot get their running game going, they will not win the NFC West. I cannot emphasize that fact enough. The 49ers need to run the ball in order to succeed!

1. Offensive Line Continues to Play Like a JV High School Unit

This has gotten really bad and if it continues Alex Smith will be watching Colin Kaepernick or Scott Tolzien get hit from the sideline. At this point, I am not even sure where to place the blame.

After doing a decent job in pass protection against the Seattle Seahawks (zero sacks and one hit), San Francisco's offensive line has imploded, 11 sacks and 19 hits in the last two games. Yes that is right, 11 sacks!

Chilo Rachal must have had many of you screaming at your television sets, throwing a remote at the screen or punching your laptop monitor last week. If that is the case I surely hope that everything is fixed in order for you to read this article, I need the reads.

Don't fret, I had the exact same reaction. He looked completely lost out their on the field, committed stupid penalties, couldn't open up a hole and allowed a few different Bengals to go untouched into the offensive backfield. 

The issues don't end with Chilo either. Joe Staley has regressed a great deal this season and doesn't look like a starting caliber tackle at this point. To make things worse, Anthony Davis might look worse than he did as a rookie last season.

I really don't know what to make of it. San Francisco has three first round picks, a second rounder and a high priced veteran starting along the offensive line. It isn't like they don't have talent. The primary issue that I see is that they aren't playing well as a unit, get mixed up in protection schemes and continually lack the necessary footwork to hold down the fort at the line. 

As I mentioned above, some of this has to do with coaching, but San Francisco really needs to address this issue before it is too late. 

I have two opinions on this: replace Chilo Rachal with Adam Snyder and Anthony Davis with Alex Boone. It may seem like a drastic step, but what else can San Francisco do at this point?

Follow me on Twitter for more intelligent musings about the NFL.