Van Persie: Why Arsenal Has the Upper Hand

The press has temporarily eased off its campaign to have Arsene Wenger placed in stocks outside the Emirates before being ritually sectioned under the Mental Health Act (an event which Sky Sports would no doubt broadcast in 3D).

Instead, it has returned to its more traditional sport of predicting the conveyor belt exodus of Arsenal’s best players, as a prelude to the Collapse Of Arsenal Football Club. This is a sure sign that, after a disturbed summer and a poor start to the EPL season, things are returning to normal as Arsenal begins to climb the EPL table and new players become accustomed to the team and the injured return.

Robin Van Persie is, of course, the next player on the conveyor belt. It won’t matter if Arsenal wins each of its next 20 games 5-0. The only thing the press will be interested in is the angle of the human drama,  portrayed as the continuing story of the personal betrayal of Wenger's flawed "project."

To this end, with each passing day that Van Persie does not sign a new contract (his current one ends in the summer of 2013), we can anticipate reports that the usual predators are polishing their bank notes and briefing their stars on how to twitter their eyelashes at Van Persie. Expect also to read that Van Persie is “flattered” by the attentions of Barcelona/Madrid/El Manchesteros/Milano and other assorted members of the Billionaire Club.

Precedent is, of course, on the side of the press. Perhaps the most compelling evidence that Van Persie is heading for the lottery winner's exit door is that Wenger has made him captain. This is, as Arsenal fans know, an ominous sign.

Equally ominous is the fact that, FIFA's Financial Fair Play Regulations or otherwise, Arsenal can no longer offer its best players the wages that are available elsewhere in the EPL. This is the simple, boring, harsh and depressing reality of the world as it currently exists.

Forget the nonsense about surly players being “concerned” about winning silverware, or of their club not signing players whose surnames end in a vowel for tens of millions. Just like all working people, footballers are in it for the money. And whether they are to be regarded as overpaid, fat cats, greedy, disloyal, ungrateful or “all that is wrong with capitalism” is really not the point.

Arsenal’s only means of keeping the predators at bay is to dangle loads of money in front of it’s prized players long before their contracts expire, in order to induce them to grab what extra is on offer now, extend their contracts and to keep doing so .

Take Wilshere as an example. At the end of his current contract, one or more of the predators would offer three times what Arsenal could offer him. And, being human, he would without hesitation accept such an offer (with the usual platitudes about his gratitude to Wenger and love for the fans).

But as things stand in 2011, he still has several years to go before his contract expires and he can cash in his lottery ticket. And much can happen in those years, not least an Eduardo-type catastrophic injury.

So, if you are Wilshere, you either resist any Arsenal offer of an enhanced and extended contract, on the basis that by foregoing a bit of extra money at present you achieve the big pay day when the current contract expires in a few years time. Or you take the extra money on offer now, extend your contract by a few more years and postpone the speculative big pay-day.

Taking the cash now is clearly a less risky option than gambling that all will be well in several years time. It is, after all, a short and precarious career, as Wilshere will reflect with a steel plate currently in his 19-year-old ankle...

One thing the examples of Vieira, Henry, Overmars, Flamini, Hleb and Nasri have surely taught us is that the player's contract game is won or lost by bargaining power. Given Arsenal’s relative financial weakness by comparison with the financially doped members of the Billionaire Club, it cannot allow its best players to get the upper hand in contract negotiations.

Once a player can see the triple-pay-day cheque looming, then it’s game over. The club knows that and the player knows that. And each knows that the other knows...

Indeed, aside from curing the defence’s propensity to concede more goals than any attack could  reasonably be expected to score, it seems to me that Arsenal’s greatest  priority must be to remedy a lack of  strategic cunning in dealings with its own players. It may be that this is something that has worsened since the departure of David Dein, although this is mere speculation.

But what of RVP? Well, of course he will refuse to sign a new contract at the present time. He will say that there is no rush to do so and will privately hope to have an exceptional season and manipulate events into the Nasri model, i.e. provoke an eye popping offer from the Billionaire Club and test Arsenal’s resolve to allow him to leave for nothing in summer 2013.

The problem RVP has, however, is that he will be 30 in the summer of 2013. That is not necessarily that old for an EPL player, however Robin hardly presents himself to future employers as an example of a reliable investment, bearing in mind his history of long term injuries. £180,000 per week for a player approaching 30 who routinely sees out the winter months in the sick bay might well seem a bit rich for even the most financially doped...

And while Arsenal would no doubt prefer to be able to cash RVP in at the end of his useful EPL life rather than allow him to walk (or perhaps limp) away from the Emirates in 2013, he is not a player (unlike Nasri) who cost significant money (£2.75 million in 2004 to be precise). Is a cash transfer for RVP really an integral part of Arsenal’s financial model?

Thus there is a sound case for keeping Van Persie for the next two years, whether or not he extends his contract and, if necessary, allowing him a free transfer pension-fund type move when he is 30 in lieu of an old style testimonial. Such an arrangement could be attractive to Van Persie too, as going on a free transfer will inevitably divert more into his wage packet.This would at least keep him happy in his last season.

On the other hand, a fairly strong case for selling 29-year-old RVP in summer 2012 can also  be made.

If he has a good injury-free season, Arsenal could perhaps reap £10-15 million and create a war chest to buy somebody “hot." I have no idea who that might be, nor how anybody that hot might be persuaded to come to Arsenal when financially doped  rivals will invariably muscle into any proposed Arsenal deal and offer to double or triple his wages.

Be that as it may, to Mr Kroenke, £10-15 million in the bank next June might seem a better bet than an impending "Bosnan free" 29-year-old on the payroll with a history of nasty injuries. And how would Arsenal feel if a substantial offer for RVP was declined in July 2012, only for the player to succumb to one of his long term injuries for long stretches of the 2012-2013 season?

This is the conundrum of the EPL in the era of big money and why Wenger is under so much pressure and strain. To Wenger, trying to develop and maintain a winning squad must feel akin to filling up a bucket with a hole in it while being attacked by a swarm of wasps.

Thus, while a more pressing issue is going to arise in respect of Wilshere and possibly Walcott, the position with regard to Van Persie appears to give Arsenal the strategic advantage. Arsenal could, in the summer of 2012, just as readily justify selling to a rival with more money than sense as decide to keep him until his contract expires in the summer of 2013.

Perhaps this is a situation where the Billionaire Club and the press can be told, in no uncertain terms, where to go and who is in charge. How enjoyable that would be...