Chris Paul to NY Knicks Trade Speculation: 10 Crucial Aspects of Negotiations

Amar'e Stoudemire is a Knick, Carmelo Anthony is a Knick and if James Dolan has his way, Chris Paul is not far off from donning orange and blue.

There is only one problem. Remember last season when it was believed that—albeit unjustly—the New York Knicks' assets weren't enough to acquire Anthony? Well, New York finds itself in the exact same situation in regards to Paul, only worse.

The Knicks' best trade assets are Chauncey Billups' expiring contract, surprise contributor Landry Fields and rookie Iman Shumpert, who hasn't even seen real NBA action yet.

Not exactly a plethora of coveted talent.

To make matters slightly more complicated, barring a completely cancelled season, Paul is unlikely to just hit the open market where the Knicks can sign him outright. The New Orleans Hornets are sure to want value in return for their star, and it's doubtful what New York can offer will fulfill this desire.

Pessimism must be tossed aside though, because optimism is the dominant aura running rampant through the in-progress renovation of Madison Square Garden. Whether the Hornets like it or not, and in all likelihood they don't, they are going to have to enter in-depth discussions with New York.

This obviously comes as great news to the Knicks and their fans, but while Paul holds a mountain of leverage, the Knicks' shallow pool of desirable assets means that any other hitch in negotiations is crucial. 

Logically, New York should be an outside chance to acquire Paul, but thanks to his relationship with Stoudemire and Anthony, the Knicks will stay in the discussion. However, it is far from a lock as this is an extremely sensitive situation New York is entering. 

And with this in mind, let's take a look at 10 crucial aspects of any potential negotiations that may ensue post-lockout.

Chris Paul's Willingness to Exert His Leverage

As previously stated, Chris Paul holds an abundance of leverage in this situation, but as we saw in the Carmelo Anthony negotiations, leverage isn't always everything, especially if the player in question is unwilling to exert it.

Privately, Anthony made his desire to play in New York clear, but publicly, he was evasive at best. Additionally, he allowed his potential loss in compensation to get in the way, exhibiting a willingness to accept a permanent move to New Jersey.

Unlike last time, the Knicks can ill afford for Paul to do this.

When Anthony failed to properly exert his leverage, it was a matter of how much New York would have to give up. In regards to Paul though, failure to exert his leverage will more than likely lead to talks falling apart completely.

Hopefully, Amar'e Stoudemire and Anthony learned a lesson from last season's saga—the lesson being it's not always worth it to endorse a deal that decimates a roster. This is a lesson they would do well to share with Paul, especially considering thanks to the aforementioned trade, the Knicks have virtually nothing appeasing to relinquish, let alone fall back on.

New York can inquire about Paul's availability until its front office personnel is blue in the face, but unless it plans on dangling Anthony as bait, the Hornets' only reason to return any phone calls lies in Paul's willingness to exert whatever leverage he possesses.

New York Knicks Approach to Dealing with Rumors Publicly

It's no secret the Knicks want Chris Paul, but for all intents and purposes, they need to appear publicly as if their desire for the star point guard is the best kept secret in the NBA.

This of course, mostly involves the front office. New York boasted a cool, calm and collected Donnie Walsh last season, who on the surface appeared as if he was almost indifferent to where Carmelo Anthony landed. We all know had James Dolan been involved from the beginning, New York would have had to relinquish Landry Fields and Toney Douglas in addition to what it actually wound up trading.

This time around, Walsh is not going to be in charge of the negotiations, and in all likelihood, Dolan will have more of an input, and even though no one outside of Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire are off-limits, the last thing New York needs to have is a wealth of unprotected information and plans.

The entire league may know of the Knicks' interest in Paul, but the organization itself should not add any fuel to the fire. Denver played hardball with New York even though Walsh did not overemphasize the team's interest in Anthony. Imagine how incredibly bad negotiations will go for the Knicks if rumors and speculation are handled inadequately.

It is no secret New York covets Paul, but the Knicks have to hold a stellar poker face throughout the negotiating process in order to ensure rumored players do not lose their composure and they conserve what little assets they have left.

Landry Fields' Stock

Landry Fields emerged as quite the surprise last season, averaging 9.7 points and 6.4 rebounds per game and starting in 81 of 82 regular season games.

Fields exhibited that he was quite the defender and one of the best rebounding guards in the league. He will be at least as valuable as any other asset the Knicks have in negotiations, and how he fares next season will be extremely crucial to how talks pan out.

Fields turned many heads the first half of the season, but once Carmelo Anthony joined the team, he visibly struggled in adjusting his game to coexist with Melo's. The Knicks need Fields to regain his confidence and effectiveness so that he appeals to the Hornets.

If New Orleans becomes uninterested in Fields, it essentially kills the Knicks' chance of landing Paul.

Billups is only valuable as an expiring contract, Toney Douglas may never develop into a true point guard and Iman Shumpert, while impressive, has yet to get any meaningful burn. Fields is the only asset the Knicks possess that gives the Hornets a player who is ready to make a significant contribution.

And as the Knicks progress through next season, Fields' stock, whether it be on the rise or bottoming out, will prove very crucial to any Paul negotiations.

Iman Shumpert's Real First Impression

Iman Shumpert has been turning heads leaguewide this summer, but unfortunately, it has come at a time when it matters very little. Until Shumpert sees legitimate NBA action and is put in an actual game situation, his ability to make an impact is virtually unknown.

That being said, hopes of New York trading for Chris Paul rest largely on Shumpert's unknown abilities—unknown in the sense of NBA action and not overall.

While at Georgia Tech and over the course of the summer, Shumpert proved to be an extremely athletic player, with the ability to create offensively and dominate on the defensive end. He is widely viewed as one of this year's draft-day steals, yet that doesn't guarantee anything.

What if Shumpert, especially in the midst of trade speculation, fails to live up to his rapidly rising expectations? Not only will the Knicks' rotation suffer, but their ability to put together a package for Paul that isn't completely laughable suffers as well.

The fact that the bar has been set so high for Shumpert is great news, especially considering the draft-day busts New York and its fans have become accustomed too, but the Knicks would be remiss if they patted themselves on the back already.

Shumpert could prove to be quite the addition to the Knicks' rotation, as well as a valuable tool in the complex Paul negotiations that will eventually take place, or he could fold under the pressure and become a non-entity in any talks.

The latter could prove to cost New York any opportunity it has of trading for Paul.

Toney Douglas' Development

Toney Douglas could prove to be more crucial to Chris Paul negotiations than most people realize.

When looking at the Knicks' most intriguing assets in Landry Fields, Iman Shumpert and Chauncey Billups, they are visibly handicapped in one area: a point guard for the future.

Billups is a capable floor general, but it is unlikely he remains in New Orleans after a trade. Fields is a shooting guard and Shumpert, while he possesses great ball-handling skills, is better suited at the 2 as well.

Enter Douglas. He is the right size, has good ball-handling skills and is extremely quick, but he hasn't picked up on how to handle the responsibilities of running an offense. He struggles to distinguish between when to pass and when to shoot, and while a great defender, doesn't read opposing defenses nearly as well as one would expect.

Douglas did show some improvement last season, but when Billups went down in the playoffs, his immaturity and inexperience was evident. Many believe he is an undersized shooting guard, but for the Knicks' sake, they better hope he continues to develop.

New York is sure to give Douglas the opportunity next season, and if he can show he is a capable floor general fit to lead an offense, this increases the Knicks' chances of acquiring Paul. New Orleans is certainly going to want someone who can fill the void left by Paul at least somewhat.

Billups may be a half-season solution, but something more long-term would obviously be more enticing.

If there was ever a time for Douglas to prove his critics wrong, next season is it.

The Overall State of the Current New York Knicks

Some tire of reading about speculation concerning players that aren't in a Knicks uniform—although in almost every writer's defense, the team itself has put the utmost of emphasis on players not yet in orange and blue—so let's take a brief look at how far this current team can carry itself.

One little caveat though: New York's potential to succeed is directly related to the Chris Paul negotiations.

When the Knicks were pursuing Carmelo Anthony, they were a seesaw of a team at best, experiencing immense success and then disappointment reminiscent of a lottery team. It is this very inconsistency that led to an urgency to acquire Anthony, damaging part of the leverage the Knicks held.

In any Paul negotiations, virtually the only leverage New York possesses is the leverage Paul himself exerts, and his willingness to exert it is unknown. Consequently, the Knicks cannot afford to be a team in disarray when pursuing the star point guard. If New York reeks of even more desperation than usual, the Hornets are not going to be even slightly amenable to doing the Knicks anymore favors.

This may be difficult to wrap a head around, but the less the Knicks need Paul, the better their chances are of acquiring him. Think about it, if New Orleans deals Paul to the Knicks at all, it is doing New York a huge favor, and an even bigger one if the team is performing disastrously.

However, if the Knicks are perhaps in the top four or five of the East, the Hornets would be more apt to dealing with New York. New Orleans would relish at the possibility of disrupting a cohesive unit.

The more the Knicks show that Paul is not crucial to their team's success, the better their chances are of acquiring him.

Ironic, isn't it?

Amar'e Stoudemire's Faith in Current Squad

The Knicks' ability to succeed with their current roster and Amar'e Stoudemire's faith in the current squad are two completely different entities.

Last season, at the beginning of it anyway, Stoudemire exhibited no urgency for the Knicks to make a play for Carmelo Anthony. He believed the sky was limit for the team he took the floor with. However, after half a season of inconsistency, he outright endorsed any trade that landed the Knicks Anthony. He has to be careful not to do the same this season.

Not only did Stoudemire's endorsements potentially raise the price on Anthony, but if New York failed to obtain the small forward, rifts between he and his teammates could have been created.

No, Stoudemire did not drop any names directly, but he knew who the rumors included and he put his indirect stamp of approval on it. The Paul negotiations are not going to be as sure of a thing, and if he does something similar, it could create tension between he and the wafer-thin supporting cast New York has left.

Anthony may have become the face of the franchise publicly, but Stoudemire is the unquestionable leader. He had what it took to commit to New York in the face of adversity and was admired for it.

He just has to be careful not to let visions of a "big three" in New York cloud his judgement, as it opens him up to becoming the face of adversity in the locker room.

The Health of Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire

Believe it or not, Carmelo Anthony's covert surgeries can have a huge effect on the Chris Paul negotiations, as could the health of Amar'e Stoudemire. 

Anthony had surgery on his elbow and knee, repairing injuries that he had been playing through for a while, and as we all know, Stoudemire has knee and now back issues. Paul has a history of knee problems himself, and with two stars already boasting murky bills of health, the Knicks may not be so apt to add a third.

Anthony's injuries have not been deemed serious, yet they were serious enough for surgery. Paul is less than two years removed from knee surgery, and Stoudemire, though he plays through it, is a hotbed for pain. A combination of these three players creates an arguably more balanced "big three" attack than in South Beach, but it definitely is a riskier entity.

New York already has two stars whose health is of major concern, and as they look ahead, they could decide to explore a safer route. Perhaps they consider bringing in a variety of role players to surround Stoudemire and Anthony with, or maybe they will just set their sights on a more durable Deron Williams.

If Anthony or Stoudemire show the slightest inclination of uncertain health circumstances next season, the possibility of the Knicks rethinking their primary target is very real. This could obviously lead to a halt in the negotiating process, but it also shifts leverage—what has already been established as being insanely important—in the Knicks favor.

Should New York's interest in Paul subside even slightly, and he still exerts his leverage, the Hornets may be forced to not only accept what the Knicks are offering, but take back even less than what they first believed they would have to.

Stoudemire's and Anthony's health bills speak volumes in this negotiating process, perhaps louder volumes than any vocally public support they may emulate in regards to making Paul a member of the Knicks.

Steve Nash

Steve Nash's situation is one that the Knicks have kept a close eye on all summer, as he has defied the rigors of age and continued to perform at a championship-leading level.

With the Phoenix Suns officially entering a rebuilding stage, Nash becomes an expendable asset if they can get any additional value in return. The Knicks can offer an expiring contract in Chauncey Billups to match the financial savings of Nash's, as well as a young player whom the Suns coveted prior to the draft in Iman Shumpert.

Both Phoenix and Nash maintain that he isn't going anywhere, but such stances, especially that of the Suns, could change based on how the team fares next season. If Paul negotiations are not moving forward, or even existent, the Knicks will not pass up the chance to acquire a heralded point guard like Nash.

And if New York lands Nash, all hope of acquiring Paul via trade vanishes.

Next season, the Knicks may approach a crossroads where they have to choose between a lock acquisition for the short-term in Nash and only a possible acquisition that is better long-term in Paul.

The amount of aggression which the Knicks use to pursue Nash will have a great effect on their chances of landing Paul. 

If the Knicks dismiss Nash as an option, Paul becomes essential, leading to desperation. On the other hand though, if New York shows too much interest, New Orleans could use it as a tactic to show Paul he would be better off allowing the team to ship his talents elsewhere.

And what are the Knicks to do in that situation?

Dwight Howard's Future

No, the Knicks are not trading Amar'e Stoudemire for Dwight Howard. It's an obscene trade that the Orlando Magic would never agree to and the Knicks shouldn't even consider.

That being said, Howard's future plays a big role in Chris Paul negotiations.

New York is viewed as a long shot to land Howard, but the Big Apple is believed to be one of his preferred destinations. If it becomes evident that the Magic is amenable to taking its chances with the superstar via free agency, the Knicks could slightly distance themselves from the Paul negotiations.

Why? For one, while the Knicks could use a star point guard, a prolific big man would be even better. Howard is a stalwart defender and a dominant low-post scorer, and his strictly inside game complements Stoudemire's inside-out one perfectly.

A Stoudemire-Howard pairing would be one for the ages, arguably better than the David Robinson-Tim Duncan affair that propelled the San Antonio Spurs to greatness. If it becomes evident he'll hit the free agent market, the Knicks would be foolish to pass up the chance to make a push for him.

Obviously in this case, Howard becomes crucial to negotiations because he could bring them to a screaming halt, but it is also crucial because it actually shifts leverage in the negotiations toward the Knicks.

We already acknowledged that New Orleans is more likely to trade Paul to New York if the Knicks don't seem desperate or have an immediate need for him. How do you think the Hornets would react knowing that Paul's most preferable destination isn't even knocking on their door?

While this could lead New Orleans to try and convince Paul to accept a trade elsewhere, such a tactic may backfire. If the Knicks believe they have a legitimate shot at Howard, it not only subtracts a team off of Paul's list, but a superstar off of his list of players to pair with. This could lead to a major sense of urgency on Paul's behalf, and he may force his leverage more than ever to ensure he is not left in the dust.

Still with me? Good. At this point, the Knicks, who have very little tradable assets, could land Paul at an even steeper discount. The Hornets, in fear of losing Paul for nothing, would be at New York's mercy if they prefer to pursue Howard.

It's a scenario that is unlikely, but not impossible. If New Orleans was to trade Paul to New York in the first place, it would have to do so accepting a lesser return, but Howard's future has the potential to shift most of the leverage in the Knicks direction, diminishing the Hornets' return even further.

You can follow Dan Favale on Twitter here   @DannyFavs2033.