NFL Odds: Setting Super Bowl Odds for All 32 Teams

With three weeks down and 14 left in the 2011 NFL season, we are starting to gain a decent handle on who really could emerge as contenders. What are the odds that each team will figure out their problems and play in Super Bowl XLVI?

We will proceed to look at all 32 teams and scrutinize the updated odds. I was asked to write a Super Bowl odds story for the 2011 season back on July 25; safe to say that things have really changed drastically from then to right now. 

We used Vegas Insider.com to establish our preseason Super Bowl odds, but don't have access to their updated odds and we went with Football Locks.com.

Arizona Cardinals (1-2)

Preseason Odds: 50-1

Current Odds: 60-1

There was a sense of excitement for the Arizona Cardinals when the team acquired Kevin Kolb to throw the ball to Larry Fitzgerald. Not only that, but they were playing in the weakest division in the NFL, the NFC West. 

But then the season started. Getting shut out by the Seattle Seahawks in the second half is hard to imagine, especially with Fitzgerald as a nearly unstoppable force. By not doing anything in the second half, the Cardinals are starting to dig a little hole already, falling to 1-2 on the season. 

They have time to turn their season around, but dropping two of the first three games, and losing to a Seahawks' team that was shut out the week before, is not exactly a ringing endorsement.

My personal ranking: Leave the Cardinals where they are for now, until they start showing some marked improvement. 

Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

Preseason Odds: 5-1

Current Odds: 30-1

The Atlanta Falcons have to be one of the more disappointing teams coming out of the gate in 2011. They have almost equaled their total of three losses in the regular season from last year, and we are only at Week 3. Unless the Falcons turn in a long winning streak, it looks like the 2010 team was more of a mirage than the real thing. 

The playoff loss last year exposed weaknesses in the Falcons' defense, and now they are having trouble putting up points on the road, scoring only 12 at Chicago and 13 at Tampa Bay. So much for the dynamic Falcons' offense. 

The lack of scoring is of a real concern. In the current NFL, 12 and 13 points are going to make you a loser most of the time. There is time to turn this thing around, but they better start getting the offense going. 

My personal ranking: 20-1

Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

Preseason Odds: 6-1

Current Odds: 10-1

The Baltimore Ravens' offense is improving. They are currently ranked 10th overall in the NFL. Rookie wide receiver Torrey Smith exploded for over 150 yards against the St. Louis Rams in Week 3. 

Terrell Suggs is among the league leaders in sacks. The Ravens look to be solid on both sides of the ball again this year. I don't think their odds of winning should be dip below 10-1. If they ever do, I would consider buying. 

The Ravens host the New York Jets this weekend, before they hit their bye week. The Raiders showed the Ravens how to beat the Jets, so we will see if they can follow the formula.

My personal ranking: 7-1 

Buffalo Bills (3-0)

Preseason Odds: 50-1

Current Odds: 30-1

The Buffalo Bills are becoming one of the most exciting teams in the NFL, and they've done it practically overnight. The Bills lead the NFL in scoring, have given up the fewest sacks in the league and boast a balanced offensive attack, currently ranked third in the NFL. 

If a defensive mastermind like Bill Belichick can't find a way to slow your offense down, you know they are for real. The Bills still need to generate a pass rush and they are giving up too many big plays in the secondary. But, if the offense continues to show they can move the ball and score points in bunches, they can play with anybody. 

The Bills also play with tremendous heart and they display their team character every week. Those things are hard to measure when you are figuring out odds. 

My personal ranking:  20 -1 

Carolina Panthers (1-2)

Preseason Odds: 60-1

Current Odds: 80-1

Cam Newton is off to a much better start than anyone imagined possible. Unfortunately, Cam can't play defense. Losing starting linebackers Jon Beason and Thomas Davis is going to be very difficult for the Panthers to overcome. 

Steve Smith is enjoying life as a Panther again, and that is thanks to Newton. The Panthers will need to continue adding some talented weapons around Newton, and this team will be scary if Cam continues to grow as a quarterback. 

Panthers' offense is ranked No. 6, which is a good sign that better days are ahead for the team. 

My personal ranking: 50-1

Chicago Bears (1-2)

Preseason Odds: 8-1

Current Odds: 40-1

Maybe the better question for oddsmakers is whether or not Jay Cutler finishes the season as the Bears' QB. At the current rate he is being pounded, harassed and knocked silly, I don't know how he possibly could. 

The Bears have talent at a number of positions, but the fact that they have allowed their offensive line to become so poor is alarming. The offensive line has set the Bears back greatly, and whatever type of playoff threat or contender they were in 2010, that is now in the past. Until they fix their line, their odds will continue to plummet. 

My personal ranking: 25-1

Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)

Preseason Odds: 40-1

Current Odds: 125-1

I think these newest odds are quite harsh. The Bengals are a young team that is learning and they have a ways to go to become a winning team again, but they have a few nice players in Andy Dalton and A.J. Green and the defense is third best overall in the NFL after Week 3. 

The Bengals aren't going to the playoffs this year, but to list their odds at 125-1 is really a slap in the face. I will bring them in higher than that. 

My personal ranking: 50-1

Cleveland Browns (2-1)

Preseason Odds: 40-1

Current Odds: 50-1

The Cleveland Browns held the Miami Dolphins to only one touchdown and three field goals and that was enough defense to eek out a win on Sunday. They won despite quarterback Colt McCoy completing less than half of his passes, which is a red flag. 

Of course, they weren't planning to be without Peyton Hillis, but good teams have to find ways to get it done when they lose a key player. The Browns' defense has been stepping up this year, and that unit is ranked No. 9 overall in the NFL. 

The Browns are making strides and need to continue to add more pieces. 

My personal ranking: 35-1

Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

Preseason Odds: 6-1

Current Odds: 20-1

The Dallas Cowboys were able to win their Monday Night Football game thanks to converting a long third down late in the fourth quarter. Tony Romo had to endure a number of bad snaps from his center, who had trouble distinguishing from the defense calling out the cadence and Romo doing it. Good thing they were playing at home, huh?

The Cowboys have talent on both sides of the ball, but they have some holes now on the offensive line due to the salary cap maneuvers made in the preseason.

The Cowboys still have a stout defense, which was ranked at No. 5 overall coming in to Monday night's game. They have a chance to go to the playoffs, but they have to bring their receivers up to speed quickly. They didn't know which side to line up on last night, nor were they sure of what routes to run. It is actually amazing that they won the game with all of their issues.

My personal ranking: 20-1

Denver Broncos (1-2)

Preseason Odds: 50-1

Current Odds: 125-1

The Denver Broncos are dealing with the Kyle Orton vs Brady Quinn vs Tim Tebow issue and it is still a distraction to the team.

The Broncos' defense is definitely improved over the 2010 team, but the offense is now lagging behind. The Broncos are ranked No. 26 overall on offense, while the defense has moved up to No. 16.

This looks like another rebuilding year for Denver and in terms of Super Bowl aspirations for 2011, they're not on the immediate horizon.

My personal ranking: 100-1

Detroit Lions (3-0)

Preseason Odds: 30-1

Current Odds: 8-1

The Detroit Lions are one of the best stories of the 2011 season, along with the upstart Buffalo Bills. As two of the only three unbeaten teams remaining in the league, the Lions and Bills both pulled off major comebacks in the second half of Week 3.

The Lions have the distinction of having both a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense. The only other team that can say that right now is the San Diego Chargers. The Lions' offense is ranked at No. 9, while the defense is ranked at No. 6.

Having won seven straight games dating back to the end of the 2010 season, the Lions are on a roll and gaining more confidence every week. As long as they keep Matthew Stafford upright, they are a threat to contend this year. They don't face the Green Bay Packers until Weeks 12 and 17, at which point they will find out how much they have improved, or not.

My personal ranking: 10-1

Green Bay Packers (3-0)

Preseason Odds: 4-1

Current Odds: 9-2

The Green Bay Packers continue to roll out a very strong offense every week (ranked No. 7 overall) but the biggest concern about the Packers ability to repeat as Super Bowl champions appears to be their defense.

The Packers' defense has dropped down to No. 29 overall. Teams have been able to pass like crazy on Green Bay (359 yards per game), but have trouble running on them (55 yards a game).

The Packers have a very strong shot at repeating in the NFC but, unless they shore up the secondary, it seems like they will have trouble repeating.

My personal ranking: 7-1

Houston Texans (2-1)

Preseason Odds: 20-1

Current Odds: 12-1

The Houston Texans were starting to make believers of NFL fans who were skeptical about their revamped defense. Then they played the New Orleans Saints, who dropped a 40-point bomb on them, and now questions are arising again as to how good this defense is.

The Texans boast a solid offense (ranked No. 8 overall) and they will continue to put up points week in and week out. The defense is definitely improved, but is it a defense that can win in the playoffs? While the Saints were a good test, the jury is still out.

Houston should benefit the most from Peyton Manning's injury to capture the AFC South division. What they do with it remains to be seen. Over the next three weeks, the Texans play Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Once those games have come and gone, we will have a better handle on how good this team really is.

My personal ranking: 15-1

Indianapolis Colts (0-3)

Preseason Odds: 5-1

Current Odds: 125-1

Lose one player and look at how the odds change. When you consider that that one player is Peyton Manning, former MVP of the league and the guy the team is built around, then it makes more sense.

The Colts demonstrated that they are not willing to shrivel up and die when they battled the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3. But, if the offense continues to sputter behind either Kerry Collins or Curtis Painter and the losses keep piling up, it will be harder to come in every week with the same degree of fight.

The Colts will at least be able to develop a backup quarterback this year for their future, if they desire. In regards to being able to see the Super Bowl host city have their own team playing in the game, they will be just as disappointed as Dallas was last year. The Colts will not be playing in the Super Bowl this year.

My personal ranking: 100-1

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)

Preseason Odds: 25-1

Current Odds: 125-1

Once the Jacksonville Jaguars decided that David Garrard wasn't the answer, the odds greatly changed for the team. It now appears that the team is ready to hand the reigns of the offense over to Blaine Gabbert and, although there will be some growing pains, it is probably the best thing for his personal development.

The Jaguars' offense is in the bottom five of the NFL (ranked No. 28 overall), but the defense has been impressive, as they are ranked at No. 4 overall. This year will have to be a rebuilding year for the franchise, which might not do much for head coach Jack Del Rio.

My personal ranking: 100-1

Kansas City Chiefs (0-3)

Preseason Odds: 15-1

Current Odds: 125-1

The Kansas City Chiefs were clearly one of the surprise teams of the 2010 season. But the surprise of last year has turned on them and they have been dealt a cruel blow by some serious injuries to their better players.

But all good football teams have injuries to deal with. The better teams find a way to move past them and the weaker ones get exposed. After getting bombed 89-10 in the first two weeks, the Chiefs got their act together and gave the San Diego Chargers a battle last week. That was good to see.

But without Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry and Tony Moeaki, I just don't think the Chiefs have enough talent to seriously contend this year. The Super Bowl is just not in their cards this year.

My personal ranking: 125-1

Miami Dolphins (0-3)

Preseason Odds: 25-1

Current Odds: 100-1

It was bad enough that Tony Sparano had to worry about his job security during the offseason, but then he coached the Dolphins to an 0-3 start to begin the 2011 campaign. The fact that the rest of the AFC East has gone 7-2 is not helping the cause, so the Dolphins are buried in a deep hole already.

What is surprising is that the Dolphins' offense is ranked No. 11 overall, which is much better than most people thought. But the defense has gone in the opposite direction, plummeting down to the No. 30 rank overall.

The Dolphins couldn't win at home last year but, so far this season, they can't win anywhere. The Super Bowl in 2011? Not happening.

My personal ranking: 125-1

Minnesota Vikings (0-3)

Preseason Odds: 30-1

Current Odds: 100-1

Donovan McNabb has led the Minnesota Vikings to three reasonably good first half performances, and three second-half collapses. The Vikings are now riddled with the unenviable task of trying to play catch up with two of the three undefeated teams in the league right now, the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers.

It is possible that the Vikings could go on a winning streak and turn their season around. But if they drop the next two games and are looking at 0-5, I would not be surprised to see them pull the plug on the McNabb experiment and turn the offense over to Christian Ponder.

What are the odds of the Vikings making the playoffs and then advancing to the Super Bowl? Slim to none.

My personal ranking: 100-1

New England Patriots (2-1)

Preseason Odds: 4-1

Current Odds: 9-2

What is the fallout from the New England Patriots' loss to the Buffalo Bills? Will defensive lines start dropping off more, trying to get their hands and arms up to deflect more of Brady's passes? What will happen to Chad Ochocinco, who dropped a sure touchdown pass and ran a lazy route that led to an interception?

The Patriots' secondary is a mess, and they had enough blown coverages last Sunday to keep Bill Belichick up for a long time. They are allowing an average of 377 passing yards a game, which is just insane. I had considered the Patriots to be the favorite team to emerge out of the AFC prior to last Sunday, but now I am not so sure.

The Patriots will always be a threat to beat anybody as long as Brady has weapons like Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker to throw to. But if they can't fix their secondary issues, this is a team that might not go very far in the playoffs again. After all, they aren't invincible, as they have lost their last three playoff games and counting.

My personal ranking: 10-1

New Orleans Saints (2-1)

Preseason Odds: 5-1

Current Odds: 10-1

The New Orleans Saints knocked off an undefeated Houston Texans team this past Sunday, which shows that the Saints' team is still a threat for the postseason. Drew Brees is commanding the No. 2 overall ranked offense right now, and the additions of Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles has allowed them to not miss a beat since Reggie Bush split town.

The Saints' defense is ranked at No. 21, and some experts will point to this unit as the biggest area of concern. The secondary is giving up 282 passing yards a game and that is a red flag. The rush defense is allowing 90 yards a game, which is fine.

The Saints have enough weapons on offense, but they have to keep Drew Brees healthy. If Chase Daniel was forced to run the offense, I am not convinced that they would do so well.

My personal ranking: 10-1

New York Giants (2-1)

Preseason Odds: 8-1

Current Odds: 20-1

So far Eli Manning has only thrown two interceptions on the year. Keeping the turnovers down is a good start and one of the reasons that the New York Giants are 2-1.

The Giants have one of these weird statistical phenomenons going on with their team, which I will refer to as perfect symmetry. Check this out: the Giants are No. 20 in passing yardage, and their pass defense is ranked No. 20. The Giants have the No. 15 ranked rushing offense, and the rush defense is ranked No. 15. If that wasn't weird enough, the Giants overall offense is ranked No. 18, and their overall defense? Yes, you got it, ranked No. 18.

The Giants have a good chance to get back to the playoffs this year. By defeating the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday, they now own a tiebreaker over them. Everyone knows how important tiebreakers are in the NFC East. The Giants learned that the hard way in 2010.

My personal ranking: 15-1.

New York Jets (2-1)

Preseason Odds: 9-2

Current Odds: 15-1

The New York Jets were 2-0 to open up the year, and then they traveled to play the Oakland Raiders. The Jets were basically ran over by Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, so their vaunted run defense lost some of its shine.

As things stand, the Jets have the No. 14 offense and the No. 12 defense, so they will be in most games just based on having on overall solid team.

But they have to be able to take advantage of each opponent's weaknesses. The Bills proved that the Raiders' secondary could be beaten, yet the Jets only targeted wide receiver Santonio Holmes twice for the entire game against Oakland. If I were Holmes, I would be upset as well. The Raiders are a bottom five defense (No. 28 in the NFL) and those are the teams that you pad your numbers on.

The Jets now have two tough games in a row, when they travel to the Baltimore Ravens and then the New England Patriots. We will see if they bounce back or if they aren't as good as they thought they were.

My personal ranking: 12-1

Oakland Raiders (2-1)

Preseason Odds: 40-1

Current Odds: 40-1

The Oakland Raiders aren't getting much respect from the Las Vegas odds-makers, as I think they are a much better team than a 40-1 pick. They have been able to air it out with Jason Campbell to Denarius Moore, and the physical running of Darren McFadden and Michael Bush can wear a team down.

The Raiders have the No. 13 ranked offense in the NFL but their defense at No. 28 will be their Achilles' heel. Being No. 28 in passing yards allowed and No. 26 in rushing yards allowed is showing that the Raiders are suspect to being attacked by either the ground or air.

The other surprise was the defensive line play. They were No. 2 in the NFL in sacks in 2010, but came up with no sacks against a supposedly weaker Buffalo Bills' offensive line. Then they rebounded with four sacks against the Jets. After losing Nnamdi Asomugha, the Raiders' secondary was going to be suspect, so they need the pass rush to protect them every week. If the pass rush is not there, the Bills proved that the secondary can be taken advantage of.

My personal ranking: 20-1

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2)

Preseason Odds: 7-1

Current Odds: 16-1

After losing two of the first three games, the "Dream Team" has fallen on some hard times. They have seen their quarterback, Michael Vick, miss some snaps due to taking too many hits in the pocket.

The Eagles have a very talented offense (ranked No. 5 overall) and the defense is performing fairly well at No. 13. But there are still some holes on this team. LB Casey Matthews is not as good as the Eagles were hoping he might be.

The Eagles are the No. 2 rushing offense in the NFL, generating 182 yards per game on the ground. But they are also the No. 30 defense against the rush, which is a clue that there are some problems that need to be fixed. There is still time for the Eagles to get their act together. Can they make it to the Super Bowl? My rankings reflect how realistic a shot I think they have.

My personal ranking: 12-1

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

Preseason Odds: 4-1

Current Odds: 10-1

The Pittsburgh Steelers opened up the 2011 season by laying an egg against the Baltimore Ravens. That was the worst game I have seen from the Steelers in quite some time. But they were able to forget that game like good teams do, and have now won two in a row, including a shutout of the Seattle Seahawks.

The Steelers are No. 12 in offense and No. 2 in defense. Those kinds of rankings suggest that there is still a very good football team here. The offensive line play against the Colts was pretty shaky, however, and they were getting to Ben Roethlisberger far too often.

But the real ace up the Steelers' sleeve is their schedule. From now until the end of the regular season, they appear to only have four major tests, which are Houston, Tennessee, Baltimore and New England. That is it. I am not saying they can roll over on the rest of their games, but the vast majority look very winnable for Pittsburgh. That makes them a good threat to repeat as AFC Champions.

My personal ranking: 8-1

San Diego Chargers (2-1)

Preseason Odds: 5-1

Current Odds: 10-1

The San Diego Chargers are 2-1 but I wonder if this team is as good as the team that failed to make the playoffs last year. They moved the ball fairly well against the New England Patriots, but couldn't convert the drives into touchdowns. They couldn't figure out a way to get the ball to Antonio Gates against the Patriots, and the Patriots' secondary has been torched all year.

Then they followed that up by narrowly getting by the Kansas City Chiefs, who had been previously outscored 89-10, with only a three-point win. Is that a case of playing down to the level of their competition? If so, that is a recipe for a team that won't go very far.

The Chargers have loads of talent, and are one of two NFL teams that have both a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense (Detroit is the other team). The Chargers are No. 4 on offense and No. 8 on defense, yet they still have a hard time putting it all together. This year appears to be more of the same.

My personal ranking: 12-1

Seattle Seahawks (1-2)

Preseason Odds: 30-1

Current Odds: 100-1

The Seattle Seahawks have the distinction of going to the NFL Playoffs in 2010 with a losing record. They will have a losing record in 2011 as well, but the playoff run will not continue this year. The reason is that their offense is pitiful. They are ranked No. 31 overall, and watching the Seahawks on offense is like getting your teeth pulled. It is that painful to watch.

The defense on the other hand is quite solid, as they are ranked No. 10 in the NFL. The Seahawks have some talent and they will get to add to that talent base at the next draft when they will be honored with a very high draft pick.

That is fine, just as long as they don't make another James Carpenter reach with it. It is going to be a long year in Seattle.

My personal ranking: 120-1

San Francisco 49ers (2-1)

Preseason Odds: 20-1

Current Odds: 30-1

Just like their NFC West rival Seattle Seahawks, the San Francisco 49ers have a similar type of team. The 49ers have a putrid offense (ranked dead last in the NFL with only 213 yards per game). The 49ers' offense is so bad that there are three teams so far who have actually doubled the 49ers' offensive production (New England, New Orleans and Buffalo).

The 49ers, like the Seahawks, have a very good defense (ranked No. 7) that keeps them in games. Coach Jim Harbaugh has his work cut out for him to turn the offense around and lead his team to the NFC West title. Once you get in the playoffs, you never know what can happen from there.

What do I think the 49ers' odds of getting to the Super Bowl are? Not so great.

My personal ranking: 35-1

St. Louis Rams (0-3)

Preseason Odds: 25-1

Current Odds: 100-1

The St. Louis Rams were thought to be the trendy pick for the NFC West coming into the 2011 season. But they have now lost three straight games coming out of the gate, losing by 18 points to Philadelphia, 12 points to the New York Giants and 30 points to Baltimore. It is one thing to lose by a field goal, but what is happening to them has to be taking the wind out of their sails.

The Rams' defense is in serious trouble. They are ranked next to last at No. 31 overall in the league. While the Buffalo Bills were the team that everybody ran on last year, that honor now goes to the Rams, who are yielding an awful 174 rushing yards per game. That is even worse than the Bills' average last year.

The Rams were concerned with surrounding Sam Bradford with more weapons, but it is clear that they have other areas to address in the next draft as well. Playing in the Super Bowl this year? Not going to happen.

My personal ranking: 100-1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

Preseason Odds: 25-1

Current Odds: 30-1

The Tampa Bay Bucs had a very nice statement win this past weekend by holding the Atlanta Falcons to just 13 points. That shows you how dynamic their young aggressive defense can be. Even though both sides of the ball are not ranked very high, (offense is No. 20 overall, while defense is No. 24 overall), they are a team that can compete and will get better as the year progresses.

The Bucs snuck up on the league in 2010, so that won't happen this year. Head Coach Raheem Morris still thinks his team can improve from where they finished last year.

We will learn a lot about the Bucs during a mid-season stretch that runs from Weeks 6-11, when they face the New Orleans Saints twice, Chicago, Houston and Green Bay. When the smoke clears from that run, if they are still above .500, then you know this team is for real.

My personal ranking: 25-1

Tennessee Titans (2-1)

Preseason Odds: 30-1

Current Odds: 30-1

The Tennessee Titans are off to a 2-1 start in spite of Chris Johnson looking like some old tired running back that can't seem to find his legs again. Johnson, the star running back who insisted he be paid like the greatest back ever, is off to a not-very-impressive start, averaging 2.1 yards per carry. It is not like they haven't been giving Johnson the ball, as he already has 46 rushes but hasn't managed to crack 100 total yards yet after three weeks. I wonder if the Titans had a three-week escape clause in the deal.

If I were them, I would be having buyer's remorse right now. What has led the Titans to a winning record is the play of veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck and the Titans' defense, which is ranked as No. 1 in the NFL overall.

What will be interesting to see is how Hasselbeck will move the Titans' offense now that Kenny Britt has been lost for the year. If defenses are able to contain Johnson like they have, the Titans will need that defense to come through every week to give them field position to work with.

My personal ranking: 25-1

Washington Redskins (2-1)

Preseason Odds: 25-1

Current Odds: 25-1

The Washington Redskins fell from the ranks of the unbeaten Monday night, when they dropped a game to the Dallas Cowboys 18-16. The Redskins only converted one of three trips inside the red zone, which came back to bite them. In addition, the Redskins converted only three of 12 third-down opportunities and that low of a success ratio will spell trouble.

The Redskins have done an admiral job of turning around their team in one short year. The Redskins' defense was ranked at No. 11 overall coming into the Monday night game, and that is a tribute to the aggressive stance they took at landing key free agents when the labor lockout was lifted.

If you listen to Rex Grossman, the Redskins are the favorites to win the NFC East. I prefer to take a wait-and-see approach to see if this team is for real or not.

My personal ranking: 20-1