New England Patriots: A One-Man Show That Won't Go Far in the NFL Playoffs

I've looked at ESPN, Fox Sports, CBS Sports and several other major sports news outlets to see their take on the New England Patriots.

Turns out, every sports media pundit in America is saying the Pats are the second-best team in the NFL, right behind the Green Bay Packers.

It's true that New England has a quarterback in Tom Brady who might just turn out to be from another planet. But a closer look at their other position groups reveals that this is a team that lives and dies on the arm of the only man in America who could wear UGG boots and get away with it.

Okay, Terry Bradshaw can, too.

New England will cruise into the playoffs, but this one-man show won't win more than one game.

Why? A closer look at all the position groups on the Pats reveals that other than the offensive line, the team is either limping, under-performing or both.

Offensive Line: The Only Reason Everything Else Works

The reason the Patriots put up points is because their offensive line wins the battles in the trenches.

The New England Patriots live and die by Tom Brady, who lives and dies by his offensive line. According to an AdvancedNFLStats.com advanced algorithm that takes into account pressures, sacks allowed by the front seven, tackles for a loss and more, New England had the best offensive line in the NFL last season.

This season it's more of the same, as Brady has only been sacked three times in the first two games. He's also been given enough to time to throw for 940 yards and seven touchdowns. This is against a Miami Dolphins team that sacked him three times last year and a San Diego Chargers team that sacked him four times last year.

But an injury to center Dan Koppen may throw a wrench into everything. Can New England's offensive line hold together, especially against tough opponents like the New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles?

Running Back: Grounded After Repeated Malfunctions

Let's start with BenJarvus Green-Ellis. After a couple of years as a backup's backup, the fourth-year man out of Mississippi exploded for 1,008 yards and 13 touchdowns last season.

But those stats are misleading. He racked up over 200 of those yards against the Buffalo Bills.

Against opponents with a balanced run and pass defense? Almost always terrible. Against the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Green Bay Packers, he had 74 yards combined. In three games against the New York Jets, he only managed 134 yards.

He managed most of his yards last season (676 to be exact) when Brady had already put up big numbers and the lead was established. 

Danny Woodhead was used as a change-of-pace back, running for 547 yards and catching for another 379. But again, misleading stats. Of his 547 yards rushing, 135 of them came against a terrible Buffalo Bills team.

Did you also know that Green-Ellis and Woodhead didn't have a single run between the 40-yard lines last season? What does that tell you about the strength of their running game?

Receivers: Average Players in a Terrific System

Yes, those wide receivers for the New England Patriots look good. They're part of the No. 1 passing offense in the league, and there are four guys (including two tight ends) who are on pace for 1,000-yard seasons.

But putting up video-game numbers doesn't mean that Wes Welker, Deion Branch or anyone else on the Pats is a great player.

In two seasons with the Miami Dolphins, Welker had 96 catches for 1,021 yards. Then he comes to New England and caught 112 passes in 2007, 111 in 2008 and 123 in 2009.

Welker is an average player who is benefiting from poor pass coverage, the best quarterback in the game and an offensive line that gives him more time than it takes Sarah Palin to answer a question about the Supreme Court. 

Deion Branch is an over-the-hill wide receiver whose best season was in 2005. Since then he has not played a full season for a team or caught for 800 yards. Branch is an average player who, like Welker, is benefiting from Brady's golden arm and a terrific system.

Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are great pass-catching tight ends, but again, can't hack it in big games. In last year's playoff loss to the New York Jets, they only managed to combine for 69 yards on seven catches. If you're a tight end and you are obviously not used as a run blocker, you need to be able to take advantage of the mismatch of going up against a linebacker. They haven't done that.

You know what happens with average players who put up great numbers against weak opponents? They're exposed.

When a pass defense like the Jets came to town in last year's playoffs, only Gronkowski had at least 60 yards. Welker had a pathetic 8.0 yards per catch, and Branch's touchdown came in garbage time with 24 seconds remaining and the Jets up by 14.

The Ravens came the year before in the 2009 wild card game, and Patriots receivers and tight ends managed to combine for less than 100 yards receiving.

New England's quarterback is great. Their offensive line is great.

Their wide receivers would be mediocre on most any other team in the NFL.

Defensive Line: Underperforming and Overpowered

The New England Patriots are like night and day when it comes to their offense and their defense. On offense, they're spectacular, led by arguably one of the best to play the quarterback position.

When the Pats are on defense, it's probably a good time to make a sandwich and grab a beer. And maybe return that phone call you've been meaning to make. Oh, yeah, there's no milk in the fridge, gotta go get that. Need to stop by the ATM and get cash for tomorrow.

If you're a New England fan and Zoltan Mesko is on the field to punt the ball, you can be sure you've got about 10-15 minutes before anything else good is happening for your team.

The Pats only had 36 sacks last season, 13 more than last-place Denver and 12 fewer than first-place Pittsburgh. They also allowed a whopping 366 yards to opponents per game, fifth-most in the league last year.

Sure, last year's team led the league in interceptions, but that had less to do with the pressure the defensive line was creating and more to do with Tom Brady's effectiveness at making it a game where the opponent was forced to pass. The defensive line forced the least amount of fumbles in the league last year and allowed opposing rushers over 4.2 yards per carry.

Look at what happens when a tough opponent with a good rushing game comes to town:

When the New York Jets beat the Pats in last year's playoffs, they rushed for 120 yards and a touchdown.

In 2009, when the Baltimore Ravens beat the Pats in the playoffs, they rushed for 234 yards and three touchdowns.

In 2008, when the Pats didn't make the playoffs, they were run on for over 1,700 yards and managed only get 31 sacks. Both are mediocre numbers considering half their schedule consisted of two games each against the Dolphins and Bills, plus games against an Arizona Cardinals team that had packed it in for the winter, a St. Louis Rams team featuring Antonio Pittman (he literally gained 20 percent of his career yards  in his one game against New England), a Seattle Seahawks team with Maurice Morris as their feature back and an Oakland Raiders team that was 3-11. 

In 2007, when the Pats lost in the Super Bowl, playoff opponents rushed for a combined 291 yards in three games.

In 2006, when the Indianapolis Colts beat the Pats in the AFC Championship, they ran for 120 yards.

In 2005, the Denver Broncos beat the Pats with 96 yards rushing and two touchdowns.

In summary: the defensive line just has not been able to get it done when the pressure has been on over the last five years.

Secondary: With Chung Out, Things Only Go Bad to Worse

The New England Patriots secondary was never one to write home about. Sure, they led the league in interceptions last season with 25, but that stat is incredibly misleading.

If a team is terrible against the pass, what are you going to do to beat them? Pass the ball, right? And with every pass, what becomes more and more of a probability? An interception.

Sure, the Patriots intercepted the ball more, but that's only because games were more often than not shootouts between Tom Brady and the other team's quarterback.

Last season, New England scored an average of 32.4 points a game, easily the best average in the NFL. Opposing teams averaged 19.6 points a game (ninth-worst in the NFL) and passed for 4,136 yards (third-worst in the NFL). Opposing quarterbacks also managed an average of 14.1 first downs a game against the Pats pass defense, the worst in the NFL.

This season, it's more of the same. Through two games, New England has allowed 800 yards passing (second-worst in the NFL) and 39 passing first downs (worst in the NFL).

If safety Patrick Chung is out for a significant amount of time because of his thumb injury, look for things to get even worse.

How's New England Going to Do This Season?

It's going to look very, very pretty for New England as they go through the regular season.

Tom Brady is playing at an incredibly high level, the offensive line doesn't look shaken at the thought of losing center Dan Koppen, the wide receivers are taking full advantage of playing with the league's best quarterback and the running backs are picking up the table scraps of that high-powered offense.

But the defense doesn't look good, and it hasn't looked good since they won the Super Bowl in 2004. The run defense can't stop even average running backs, and the pass defense makes Chad Henne look like a Pro Bowler. Why?

A lack of pass rush.

New England's best pass-rushing draft pick in the last decade was Jarvis Green in 2002. He only collected 28 sacks in eight seasons with the Pats.

The Patriots will finish second in the AFC East to the New York Jets, but they won't win more than one playoff game.

I see the Pats hosting their wild-card game, and then Bill Belichick having to hug Rex Ryan or Mike Tomlin at midfield.