NFL Picks Week 1: 2 Underdogs Sure to Cover the Spread

The New Orleans Saints were likely a yard away from covering as 4.5-point road underdogs in last night’s 42-34 defeat to the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. 

It’s difficult to say if the team would have converted the necessary two-point conversion that would have sent the game to overtime, but a 42-40 loss would have been a victory for backers that took the points.

Looking over last year’s Week 1 results, I find that favorites posted a 9-7 against-the-spread record.

Let’s take a closer look at two NFL underdogs that bookmakers do not want you wagering on this weekend.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets (-5)

The betting on this primetime contest is evenly split heading into the weekend, as the New York Jets have moved slightly higher over the last 24 hours—from a 4.5-point home favorite to its current spot at 5.0.

Public perception has really driven up this number, as it opened at 3.5 after the NFL lockout was lifted. 

Bettors are likely thinking that there’s no way that the Jets, a team that has reached the AFC Championship Game in consecutive years, will lose on the 10th anniversary of the Sept. 11th attacks.

The real question is: Will they cover the spread?

New York is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7.0 points over the last two seasons, which is countered by the Cowboys perfect 2-0 ATS mark when playing on the road as an underdog with the same amount of points.

Dallas scored a 38-35 overtime win as 5.5-point road underdogs over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13 last year and surprised the New Orleans Saints by handing them a 24-17 defeat as touchdown underdogs during their Super Bowl season in 2009.

The return of starting quarterback Tony Romo is also a plus, as he has compiled a 27-12 straight-up record against teams outside of the NFC East.

Recommendation: Dallas Cowboys (+5)

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3)

Bettors haven’t really gotten involved in the second scheduled Monday Night Football broadcast, as twice as many bets have been placed on the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins.

It’s safe to say that the casual bettor is placing his bankroll on earlier games in hopes of making a larger score down the road.  It always happens.

From a handicapping standpoint, I’d normally take a long look at the triple revenge-minded Denver Broncos, but dropping last year’s meetings by a combined score of 98-37 happened for a reason.

Also, it’s important to point out that both teams are under the direction of two new head coaches, but one was actually on the sidelines of this rivalry in 2010.

Oakland head coach Hue Jackson served as the squad’s offensive coordinator a year ago, leading the Raiders to an overwhelming 1,010-475 advantage over the Broncos in total yards.

The Raiders have also enjoyed great success within the division, registering a 10-2 ATS mark since the 2009 season, while also covering their last five trips to the Mile High City.

Fox was a terrible coach to back when favored in Carolina and will not turn around Denver’s 8-26-1 ATS mark when laying points overnight.

Recommendation:  Oakland Raiders (+3)