NBA Rumors: The Biggest Speculation from Every Team and Its Credibility

This is the "Seinfeld Summer" of the NBA. It's "offseason about doing nothing." With the lockout in force, and with nothing happening, there's still room for talk though. It's almost as though with the rumor mill all that there is to talk about, it's become a force of it's own.

It's gotten to the point where the line between "rumor," where actual things have taken place to support a notion, and "speculation," where fans just sit around thinking wishfully are one in the same. 

So what's credible and what isn't'? How can we bring a little sanity to the insanity? Here is the biggest rumor for every team, and the likelihood it's authentic. I will score the "Credibility Factor" of every team on a scale of one to 10. 

Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks have several aspects that make them particularly susceptible to gossip. Virtually every player on the team has been traded by one fan or another, but the player most mentioned is Josh Smith.

The fans seem to want Deron Williams, Dwight Howard or Chris Paul in return, or some other superstar. 

Then the question becomes, who can they get for Smith? For a player who only makes 12 million dollars his talent level is pretty high. On the other hand he's a hard person to figure out how to work in. He's not quite big enough for a power forward and not quite fast enough for a small forward. 

He also has a good skill set, moves well with and without the ball and plays both ends of the court well. It all makes for good trade discussion. It's easy to see him with lots of teams.

The problem is while it's easy to come up with intriguing scenarios due to Smith's talent and versatility, along with his undersized contract, it's hard to see where they're going to get more talent in return for the money. 

Is it possible he will get traded? Considering that new owner Alex Meruelo will be looking to make a name for himself, it's possible. The question is what can they get for him. The answer is that they could get a good player, but not a great player. 

The general hope is that somehow they can get back a superstar for the team to lead the other talented players. Smith has indicated he would be willing to go to Orlando, a team that has expressed interest in him. 

It's in the realm of possibility (at least in the sense that it passes on the ESPN Trade Machine) for Hawks to send Joe Johnson and Josh Smith to Orlando for Dwight Howard and Gilbert Arenas. The Hawks could then have a starting five of Jeff Teague, Arenas, Marvin Williams, Horford and Howard. 

It's not entirely impossible but it's not likely that the Hawks obtain their superstar. Howard fits the team best but is Orlando going to help Atlanta to get better?  

Credibility Factor: 5

Boston Celtics

The question the Celtics fans are throwing around is whether or not it's time to blow it up.

The "Boston Three Party" have won a ring, and led the Celtics to the NBA Finals twice, but now they are  a combined 102 years old. Kevin Garnett (second), Ray Allen (third) and Paul Pierce (seventh) are all in the top 10 of all active players in career starts. 

Between them the three players have a total of over 120,000 minutes played. At a point, age catches you and the argument in Boston is whether or not that time has passed. 

The question might be moot though, as the reality is it might be more about whether they can make a trade than whether they will. Even if they decide to blow it up, can they find takers for Garnett, Allen or Pierce?

Garnett has 21 million on the final year of his contract. Other than Jason Kidd, he has more minutes played than anyone in the NBA right now.

What motive would any team have to trade for him? Just to meet the 17 million dollar threshold would mean giving up someone who is a bad contract, a younger star, or a combination of players. 

The only reason to obtain him would be to get over the top or to get the expiring contract.

The problem is that the price to get him and the reason to get him doesn't mesh. What team is a 21 million dollar power forward away from the championship? What team, not in contention is going to send off it's young players for a 35 year old shooting guard?

The Celtics are in the awkward position of having three aging Hall of Fame players. They do have draft picks coming up. They do have young players to develop. It's best to go into rebuilding mode, and have their Hall of Famers mentor their young players.

There's always the possibility that in a strike shortened season they can have an "Indian Summer" and win another title on rested legs. In 2013 they will have both Garnett and Allen fall of the books and have considerable money to chase a Howard or Paul. 

Don't look for any major trades from Boston. Look for them to push for one last ring and then make their move next summer through free agency. 

Credibility Factor: 2 

Charlotte Bobcats

Charlotte fans are actually on the opposite end of most teams when it comes to their rumor speculation. Consider that they have the most important thing for next season when Howard, Paul and Williams hit the free agent market: cap space.

Most of the Charlotte rumors are centered around trading their mediocre players for someone else's mediocre players. 

Forget about everything else for a minute. When you're talking about the possibility of adding Howard and one of the point guards, that means you need a lot of cap space and the Hornets have it.

If you factor in the potential retirement of Corey Maggette along with the player and team options, and the Bobcats could have only eight million in contracts in 2013.

Then, factor in that Chris Paul is from North Carolina and has said he wouldn't be closed to the idea of playing there.

If you're Dwight Howard and looking at that, imagine what you're thinking. After years of having to be an entire defense by yourself, you're looking at playing alongside Tyrus Thomas in the post and you have Chris Paul as your point guard?

Tyrus Thomas might not be a player who is going to lead a team to a championship, but he's better defensively than anyone Howard's ever played with.

The speculation could get  even more optimistic for the Bobcats though. They could always re-sign Boris Diaw for less money, and add Jason Terry who will be an unrestricted free agent. In addition, they are likely to be bad enough this year that they will not need to give their pick to Chicago.

Even if Matt Carroll and DeSagana Diop exercise their player options, a starting five of Paul, Terry, Diaw, Thomas and Howard is not unfathomable. The team could still have Carroll, Diop, DJ Augustin, and DJ White coming off the bench.

The thing to learn from Miami is that players are looking at what kind of team is going to be around them. That's got to be pretty darned attractive if you are Paul and Howard. While most fans tend to dream too big, the Bobcat fans aren't dreaming big enough.

Credibility Factor: 1 (But because it's too little, not too much.)    

Chicago Bulls

The Chicago Bulls are a player a way form a championship, so it's not a tough one to figure out what all the offseason talk in Chicago is. Who will replace Keith Bogans? That's all of it. 

The names and rumors are pretty ubiquitous but the one that seems to be the most popular consensus is Jason Richardson.

He's a veteran with some years ahead of him still. He has the ability to score inside and out. He handles the ball well enough to take pressure off of MVP Derrick Rose. He plays defense well enough to fit in to Tom Thibodeau's system. 

He's not an All-Star. He's not Michael Jordan. He is solid though. He's enough. He doesn't pose the threat of chemistry issues. 

There are other names tossed around like OJ Mayo, Courtney Lee, and so on. Who it will be is a matter for discussion but the reality is that the Bulls will be adding a new shooting guard. While it's most likely going to be Richardson, it could be someone else. 

These rumors are completely valid.

Credibility Factor: 10 

Cleveland Cavaliers

In Cleveland they are being smarter than their owner. The general theme in Cleveland is best described by the adage: "Slow and steady wins the race."

Cleveland has a lot of youth, and a lot of picks. They don't need to try and win a ring before LeBron James does and trying to do so is not only unrealistic, it's dangerous. If they try and do too much to soon, they'll give up too much talent to get marginally better and get stuck in a perennial bottom of the playoffs mode.

Nope. Be horrible! Let your young talent develop. In three or four years you'll be back where you are.

The Cavs fans seem to be saying this, and looking forward to just watching their young players grow.That's smart. Are you reading Dan Gilbert?

Credibility Factor: 10 

Dallas Mavericks

In Dallas, there's no concern about what they need to do to get to the top, it's all about how to stay there. Coming off the first championship in history, the general tone out of Dallas is "stay together." That's not an unreasonable goal.

However, there is a problem.  

One of the players most responsible for their ascendancy, and arguably the player who put them over the top, Tyson Chandler, only had a one year contract. Caron Butler, a key player who missed the second half of the season, is also no longer under contract. 

Meanwhile the Mavericks are already essentially at 62 million in salary. That's about what the owners are proposing. 

So how do you retain 20 million in contracts when you're already over the cap?  Previously it wouldn't be a problem as owner Mark Cuban really doesn't care about going over the cap, luxury tax or anything else. He's going to spend as much as he wants on his favorite toy. 

However, if there is a hard cap, they actually may not be able to sign both. 

So, now you see the problem. Who to retain? Both might not be possible.

In fact, based on what we know of the negotiations, it's within the realm of possibility that the Mavericks might not be able to sign either player, depending on how things turn out. 

Considering Chandler was on the court in the finals and Butler wasn't, if they had to chose, they should chose Chandler. Keeping both is unrealistic. 

Credibility Factor: 4 

Denver Nuggets

In Denver there are eight players who are either restricted or unrestricted free agents. So you can imagine that's going to be what gets talked about.

Then when you add to all that confusion over what all those various players are doing in the lockout, you have even more to talk about. 

Determining who the Nuggets should keep and not keep is part of it. They have an abundance of wings and shooters, but they may be in trouble in the middle. Both Kenyon Martin and Nene are unrestricted free agents. 

That leaves Chris Anderson, Al Harrington and Danilo Gallinari as the only players taller or at least 6'9" on the team. Small ball is one thing, but that's munchkin ball by NBA standards!

Most of the talk seems to be around the smaller guys. Should they re-sign Wilson Chandler? Where will JR Smith go? Will Aron Afflalo be the next star?

There is some discussion about the need to keep Nene, but it seems to get lost in a lot of the other noise. That 20 percent is accurate. While the Nuggets do need to keep some of those shooting guards and small forwards, there are an infinite number of combinations that work. 

One thing worth considering would be a sign and trade with the Bulls. Sending Aron Afflalo in exchange for Taj Gibson would be an intriguing idea for both sides, though both sides might shrink from the idea of giving up their budding stars. 

The Nuggets fans are talking about the right subject, but the wrong people. 

Credibility Factor: 5

Detroit Pistons

Reading up on the Detroit Pistons is like reading the bathroom stalls in a convent. There's just nothing there. Whether it's interference or honesty, I don't know, but Austin Daye's appearance on Rome is Burning seems to be the biggest source of gossip.

In fact, the thing that they seem to be discussing more than anything is how long it will be before the new coach, Lawrence Frank gets canned. Those not speculating about Frank getting fired are speculating about GM Joe Dumars getting fired.

There's just not much to analyze, so I guess that's what I'll analyze. They do have potentially 15 million dollars to spend. In the draft they added Brandon Knight.

There's a little bit to perk interest there, but why isn't there anything happening?

It's probably because of the whole soap opera last year that was a championship team just a few years ago. That some of the keys to those rings were not the ringleaders to the soap opera could understandably put off the Piston fans.

Detroit's best course of action, even from a business standpoint, is to cut ties with Richard Hamilton and buy him out. Then they can hand the PG responsibility to Knight, smooth things out with Ben Gordon and let him be the starting shooting guard. Put Daye in as the starting small forward and keep Greg Monroe as the starting center. 

Then all you need is a real power forward, and as it happens, the best free agent available is a power forward. Adding David West through free agency, and restructuring the starting lineup would give the fans something to talk about. 

I guess though, if I'm judging the accuracy of what the rumors are, it's true. Not just because they aren't saying anything wrong, but because not saying anything is saying exactly what is happening.

Detroit doesn't seem concerned with personnel moves, though they should be. Still, they could at least try!

Credibility Factor: 7

Golden State Warriors

Where will Monta go? I don't recall a time when it seemed a hometown was so eager to get rid of their best scorer. Perhaps it's his lack of defense, or perhaps Stephen Curry is the more popular player and they feel Ellis is getting in the way. 

Either way, it seems there is a lot of discussion about Ellis going somewhere and who they get for him. 

Unfortunately, a lot of people are overstating his worth. I think that there's a syndrome in the sports world called "Fantasy Trade Syndrome" or "FTS."

FTS occurs when you try and treat real General Managers like the rookie in your fantasy league who you think you can convince that "he's really worth it." Pretty much whatever reasons you want to trade any players are the same reason that other teams are going to want to take him. 

If you think that a player on the other team is worth the player on your team, chances are, the other team does too. 

Golden State fans tend to be looking for an elite center for Ellis, such as Noah or Bogut. GMs in the NBA tend to shy away from "small for big" trades meaning that in general, giving up a center to get a guard isn't usually accepted. 

Warrior fans need to also realize that Ellis' numbers are a bit inflated by the system he plays in. Ellis took a lot of shots last year, the second most in the NBA. He struggles to get to the line, with a FTA/FGA ratio of only .268 (compared to the .300 league average).

One thing to protect you from FTS is actually looking at players whom other teams are looking to trade.

Considering that Atlanta is looking to trade Josh Smith and he would mesh well with the athletic Warriors, they are similar in having All-Star talent but somewhat wearing out the welcome with their teams. 

The Warriors might be trading Ellis, but they won't get as much as many Warrior fans are hoping. 

Credibility Factor: 5

Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets were the 11th best team in the league last year based on SRS, basketball-reference's computerized ranking system. It's not hard to make a case they are the best team to miss the playoffs. 

The buzz around Houston is who they can get as a permanent solution as a full time starting center. While only 6'6" Chuck Hayes filled in admirably at the position last season, but it's hard to see him as a long term solution. He literally and metaphorically can't fill his predecessor's shoes. 

Who is available? Nene is the most attractive option to the Houston fans. The main problem is that while he is on record as saying that winning is more important than money right now, it's hard to see him thinking his chances are significantly better in Houston than in Denver.

Other options that could work for Houston are Tyson Chandler and Samuel Dalembert.

They should have in the neighborhood of 15 million to sign a big man, so they will be able to make one of their big man a big fish. This is a very reasonable rumor, but the Nene emphasis might be too optimistic. 

Credibility Factor: 9

Indiana Pacers

Indiana finished strong last year to get into the playoffs and then they fought hard and admirably against the top seeded Chicago Bulls. They are a team that will just get better if they don't make any moves, as they are young and improving. 

For the Pacers, the rumors aren't about players, they're about management. Specifically, who will be the general manager. The name most bandied and hoped for is that of former Pacer legend Reggie Miller. 

"

Miller's take: “After playing my entire 18-year career and spending the better part of my adult life affiliated with the Pacers; I’m honored to be mentioned as someone Mr. Simon, whom I respect a great deal, would consider for such an important role within the organization. I have had no formal discussions or meetings at this time with Mr. Simon or Pacers management.”

"

My take on this is "If they ask me I'll do it, or at least really, really think about it, but I haven't been asked." 

In other words, it's a good possibility.

Credibility Factor: 8 

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are arguably the worst franchise in the history of professional sports.

In their 41 year history they have never topped 50 wins and they've failed to top 20 on nine occasions. 

So when you say that they could be on the precipice of entering into a "Golden Age" understand the bar is not very high. They are still the Clippers and they still have Donald (insert expletive here) Sterling as their owner. That's the bad. 

Here's the good. Right now, apart form the fact that they are the Clippers and Sterling is their owner, they are the most attractive option for free agency in the NBA. No, I'm not an idiot, and yes, I know I just said that about the Clippers. 

But consider what you're looking for if you're a prime free agent that's going to be job hunting in a post CBA market. You're going to be looking for two things. First, money and second, elite teammates. No team fills that pair of qualifications better than the Clips. 

In Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon they have a real pair to build on. With just 24 million obligated in 2012, they have a lot of money to add free agents. There has been a lot of talk about Howard and Paul or Williams pairing up somewhere. From a purely basketball perspective, where would there be a better option?

Griffin and Howard would be an absolutely beastly pair in the post. They would be bigger and stronger and more athletic than any pair and it's just unthinkable as to how they would be defended. Griffin will improve defensively as he grows, but Howard would certainly help in that regard. 

Then you would have Paul/Williams and Gordon in the backcourt, giving them a combination of scoring and passing that would make it impossible for teams to cheat to the inside. 

In short, the team would be essentially unstoppable. They  would also be elite defensively. You could add virtually anyone to those four at the small forward, even me, and they'd still be a contender for a ring.

What's scary is that mathematically anyway, it's possible. Of the few teams that have the cap space to add Howard and one of the elite point guards, the Clippers have the best young talent in house. 

But the Clippers fans aren't really talking much about anything.  Perhaps it's because they don't believe in Sterling's ability to pull it off. That would be understandable.

Perhaps they are just cautious about getting their hopes up for anything. The fact is that I'm having hard time finding much Clippers buzz about anything more than Griffin's comic internship. 

Credibility Factor: 3 Come on Clippers fans! It's your time to talk it up!

Los Angeles Lakers

Rome was not built in a day, but it didn't fall in one day either. It was a process. Sadly for him, Mike Brown is Romulus Augustulus.

The Lakers aren't a dynasty, they are an empire. To me, one of the most impressive numbers in all of sports is 31. That's 31 times in 63 years the Lakers have played in the NBA Finals. 

But all empires fall. Is it the Lakers' time? With the new CBA, as much as the Lakers fans would like to think that things will continue as normal, they won't. The Lakers are at a 91 million dollar payroll—that's 17 million more than anyone else. 

They are going to be getting older, and so much money is going to aging players who will become less productive. In 2014 they will pay 50 million dollars to a 36 year old Kobe Bryant and a 33 year old Pau Gasol. 

Due to their ages and voluminous contracts, both players are virtually untradeable. They don't have many other tradeable players either. The Lakers have rewarded their players well financially for bringing home the championship, but that has the effect of making other teams disinclined to seek out trades. 

Then because of the cap, the tightness in salaries, and the less than promising future, any talent they've nurtured may be ready to bolt. Shannon Brown didn't exercise his player option. 

Then because of all these things, free agents looking at the future won't see much beyond the name on the front of the jersey to entice them to sign for the Lakers. 

The Lakers rumors are about which player they need to get to replace Kobe. They would live to acquire Howard, Paul or Williams, but the fact is that there's no realistic way they could obtain them.  Lakers fans appear to be in denial. Rome will fall. 

Credibility Factor: 1

Memphis Grizzlies

Last postseason Marc Gasol might have become the best Gasol in the NBA. He and teammate Zach Randolph dominated the paint by leading the Grizzlies to their first postseason franchise series win. 

The Grizzlies are in a fantastic position for the future. The only core player not locked up long term is Gasol, a restricted free agent, and they have the money to match any offer. In essence, this is your Grizzlies. There's some consideration concerning the future of OJ Mayo, but that's about it. 

No, the concerns in Memphis are the behavior of Zach Randolph, or more specifically, his "Hoops Posse" left over from the "Jail Blazers" days. The posse recently came under investigation again this summer. 

The future of Memphis depends largely on Randolph's ability to stay out of trouble. The fans concern is not only relevant, it's understandable. Hopefully, it won't be validated. One would think he'd learned his lesson by now, but the recent reports, though he was not personally involved, still raise red flags.  

Credibility Factor: 6

Miami Heat

In a classic illustration of "dammed if you do, dammed if you don't," LeBron James was criticized this year for not having a post game.

ESPN analysts wailed about how someone of his size, speed and strength should be a beast in the post. They criticized his work ethic and commitment. 

Then, this postseason he works with Hakeem Olajuwon on his post game and the same analysts decree it a waste of time, and that he'll never use it. 

At a certain point you'll forgive Heat fans if they start to feel like some sportswriters have two articles for every situation on James, so that no matter what he does they can have something to yell and scream about. What can you say? Hate sells. 

The reality that James is working on his post game is frightening.

This is more than a rumor, it's a reality, and a reality that will make the Heat an even better team in 2012. 

Credibility Factor: 10

Milwaukee Bucks

Remember "fear the deer?"

That was just last year.

Injuries put them in arrears.

Now their in a different gear. 

Toward which players should they steer?

And from which ones should the team veer?

Moute, Bogut and Jennings appear 

From my reading of the blogosphere

Are the ones the fans endear.

The rest it seems could disappear

The fans for them won't shed a tear.

And Michael Redd and his career?

As for that it's finished here. 

And as for me, from what I hear,

This all makes sense so I won't leer.

Credibility Factor: 7

Minnesota Timberwolves

You know that song, "All we need is Love." 

It doesn't work in the NBA. For starters, you kind of need a coach. 

And the Timberwolves are in need of one.

Now let me point out that you don't need to have the lockout end in order to sign a coach. They aren't players. So there's no real reason they haven't named one yet. 

Now, the buzz on that is Rick Adelman. That makes a lot of sense since he is actually getting called back today, and may very well be named the starter before I finish writing this article. 

It also makes sense to hire him. He's seventh all time in coaching wins making him a proven winner. He is a great option to step in and mentor a very young team that will be adding new players in Ricky Rubio and Derrick Williams. It's a team that will need a defensive mentality, which he has.

It's a good rumor and a smart choice.  

Credibility Factor: 8

New Jersey Nets

The New Jersey Nets shocked the basketball world when they announced their acquisition of Deron Williams at the trade deadline last season. 

There is no question that he is a great player, and that he is a player you can build around. Over the last three seasons, if you count assists and points, only LeBron James has produced more points per game for his team than Williams.

So now that they have him, the topic of conversation for the Nets is whether they can keep him. With the Nets having a recent history of being one of the worst franchises in the league, it's no wonder that the general assumption outside of New Jersey is that he's leaving.

On the other hand, new owner Mikhail Prokhorov negotiated the deal. He has the team ready to move to Brooklyn and open their new digs in 2012. It's a team whose history could change and Williams could be the key to that change.

A decent run, or even making the playoffs could convince Williams to bring help rather than to go somewhere and be help. For them, everything rests in having a season. Sadly for them, the prospects of that happening dwindle with each passing day. 

Credibility Factor: 4

New Orleans Hornets

In New Orleans the major part of the conversation is where to set the panic meter. It is quite possible that over the next two season the team will lose it's two greatest players in franchise history. First is David West. 

No one is going to argue that West is on the level of Amare Stoudemire or Pau Gasol, but West might be one of the more unappreciated players. Only three players in the NBA have scored more points and grabbed more rebounds than West since 2007, Dwight Howard, Chris Bosh and Amar'e Stoudemire.

So you can understand why Hornets fans are worried about losing him.

But then you throw in Chris Paul into the mix, and yeah. That's time to not just hit the panic button, but beat on it until it breaks.

New Orleans is in a bad financial situation as it is, and losing it's two star players isn't likely to make things better. In fact, even if they stay with the Hornets, they still might leave town as New Orleans is probably moving soon.

Credibility Factor: 10 

New York Knicks

Speaking of Chris Paul and where he might go, one of the places that would like to think they are getting him are the New York Knick. Others debate that Chris Paul, not Dwight Howard would be optimal to complete their big three. 

Frankly, it's not realistic. The fans are committed to 41 million next year and the more liberal scenarios for a CBA have a 62 million dollar cap. The Knicks would have four players under contact, meaning that they'd have only a little over 2.6 million to offer each player on average. The more of that which Paul or Howard takes, the less is available to the others.

Even a team with Amar'e Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony and either Paul or Howard would still need to fill out the roster. Depth matters more than just elite talent. If you don't believe me, go watch last years finals again.

Knicks fans are setting their sights too high. Mathematically it just doesn't seem realistic.

Credibility Factor: 2  

Oklahoma City Thunder

Russell Westbrook's confusing playoff performance has the Oklahoma City crowd wondering the best course for the Thunder.

There are essentially two camps. There are those who suggest trading him might be the best option, and then there are those who think that Kevin Durant needs to put his foot down and take over the reigns. 

Durant's summer tour has been drawing rave reviews, but he isn't just doing it for fun. He's developing his game, in particular his ball handling.

Add in that James Harden dropped 46 points on Kobe Bryant in a summer league game and you start getting the picture. (Yeah, I know it's summer league but you have to figure with his competitive nature, at some point Kobe's juices got flowing.)

Westbrook can score, but so can the guys around him. He needs to get comfortable as the number two. Durant is the best player on the team. There might not be more than a dozen teams in the league where Westbrook wouldn't be the best player, but he's on one of them.

That's a good thing and he'll come around. Look for Durant to bring him under control. Durant's first MVP is a very real possibility this season.

Credibility Factor: 8 (Marked down for those that are saying trade Westbrook.)  

Orlando Magic

Let's put things in perspective for the Orlando Magic. In 2013 the combined salaries of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade will be about 34.5 million dollars. The combined salaries of Hedo Turkoglu and Gilbert Arenas will be 32 million dollars.

Who do you think is getting more bang for the buck. 

The Orlando Magic have the second highest payroll in the NBA, and after Dwight Howard, very little to show for it. It's baffling how one team can do so much to stockpile bad contracts. 

So when you hear about how Dwight Howard probably leaving, he would leave because there's little chance of the Magic being able to build something around him.

Even after he's gone there won't be much to build around. Sure the Magic can probably pull a sign and trade and get something for him, but not enough. 

Magic fans are rightly focused on what they might get in return. You would think that the Jazz got the haul of a lifetime in return for Deron Williams but consider what they really got in return, Derrick Favors, Devin Harris and two first rounders.

In other words, a competent point guard, a back up power forward and what will probably turn out to be two high picks that will be at best late teens. 

So expecting as some of the Magic fans do, to get two All-Star caliber players and the chance to offload Arenas' contract are just completely unrealistic. 

Howard is already taking on a 17 million dollar contract. Teams would have to either be way under the cap or way over the cap to even consider it. However, that would also mean they'd be sending back 38 million dollars worth of player, and not many teams have bad 20 million dollar contracts on their team. 

Those that have 20 million dollar players that are wroth their contracts aren't really looking to trade them. 

On top of all that, Howard is going to be a free-agent. Teams are just as likely to wait and buy, rather than trade now. Teams aren't going to give up the franchise to get Howard for a strike shortened season. 

Magic fans are looking rightly at the trade, but need to be more realistic on the return. It's not what he's worth over the next four years that counts, it's what he's worth over a four month season. 

Philadelphia 76ers

Andre Iguodala is a strange phenomenon in the NBA. He is one of the best all around players, particularly when you take into consideration both ends of the ball. The 76ers are a team on the rise and were among the most improved last season.

It brings up thee question as to why so many 76er fans are looking into trading away Iguoadala, who is a great stat sheet filler and also the leader of the team. Sometimes it's the case where the best player on the team is not the best scorer on the team. 

The 76ers need a premier scorer but they shouldn't be and doubtfully will be trading Iggy to find one.

Credibility Factor: 4 

Phoenix Suns

Since before the All-Star break the rumor that persists around Steve Nash is where he might get traded to. It's a rumor that is hard to justify since neither Nash nor Phoenix have ever indicated that he would be traded or wants to be. 

In fact it's the complete opposite. They not only deny it. They insist upon it. Steve Nash is staying in Phoenix and he wants to. There's nothing to indicate that he won't retire there, and when he does, don't be surprised if he continues to work in the front office or as a coach.  Steve Nash is a very smart man, and will still be an asset after his playing days are over. 

And there's nothing to suggest that time has come yet. Nash quietly had another great year last year, leading the league in assists in spite of passing the ball to what essentially amounts to Larry, Mo and Curly. And oh yeah, he's arguably the best shooter in the history of the game. 

Markieff Morris should move into the starting spot improving the Suns defensively without taking away anything on offense. Look for the Suns to build and chase a playoff spot behind the continued leadership of Steve Nash who isn't going anywhere.

Credibility Factor: 2 

Portland Trail Blazers

Can I just go on record as saying that I absolutely love the Gerald Wallace trade? Now they have Raymond Felton and they're think of adding Carl Landry. 

The Trail Blazers could have the most balanced starting five in the NBA next year, and on both sides of the ball. The main thing being discussed is whether to offer an extension to Greg Oden.

It seems that due to the new CBA it's going to be either Carl Landry, and the general feel is that it's probably going to be Landry. 

The general state of the Portland team is pretty good.

The fact is that the reason they aren't talking much about trades is that they've already been done. The general shape of the Trial Blazers is set, and they should push for 60 wins next season.

They will be a team that is easily seven or eight deep in terms of players that are starting quality.

That's why the biggest rumor is Carl Landry, and with LaMarcus Aldridge having given the nod, look for it to happen as soon as it can.  

Credibility Factor: 9

Sacramento Kings

The rumors about the Sacramento Kings isn't so much about the "Kings" part as it is about the "Sacramento" part. The Kings barely avoided being shipped off to become the third team in Los Angeles this year. 

People forget that it was only a few years ago that the Kings were topping the league in sales. It's not the city's fault that the team was horrid. Chalk that one off to ownership, management and rebuilding. 

Now they have a young nucleus in Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton, and if he can stay out of trouble, DeMarcus Cousins. They also have the exciting young rooking, Jimmer Fredette who could make for an exciting sixth man. 

So now that the team is looking up a bit, maybe the town can come out and fill the stadium again. This year the season will be about the fans more than about the team. 

Credibility Factor: 10

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are another dynasty in transition. The team had a great regular season but were ousted in the first round of the playoffs last season. Now it's a matter of whether they can make another run or if it's time to start disbanding their core.

Unlike some of the other dynasties in transition, they have some movable star assets. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili both have pretty reasonable contracts, are still playing at a high level, and aren't obligated for long term deals.

For example, one hypothetical trade would be Manu Ginobili to the Bulls for Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer and a first round pick. They could then either keep those two players or have to more assets to move for younger players along with more picks. 

The Spurs are well positioned to transition and could really rebuild in a short time if they manage their cards right. Since they've done that as well as anyone in the NBA over the last 20 years in terms of making the right moves, spotting talent and developing it, I expect they will continue. 

If the speculation is that they will trade one of their key players, Parker or Ginobili this year, then it's probably true. 

Credibility Factor: 7

Toronto Raptors

Cleveland got all the "shafted" press this summer, but honestly, Toronto right now is looking like they are going to be worse off long term. They really are in a bad situation.

First, the "best" player on their team, while debatable, is probably Andrea Bargnani, a 25 year old seven foot center who hauls in 21 points a game and a whopping 5.4 boards. If you're waiting or an "LOL" after that, trust me, it's going on internally. 

Actually, I think DeRozan is their best player, and while he won't be the cornerstone of the franchise, he's the one player I wouldn't trade, which is funny because that's who they most talk about trading. 

Other than that, Raptors fans are trying to figure out how they can bundle him together with Jose Calderon for Deron Williams. 

Now I can understand why Toronto fans might do that. They need something to dream about, but really? If Williams isn't going to stay in New Jersey why would he stay in Toronto?

The best course of action for Toronto is to aim to get worse, not better. Ship off the pair to Orlando for Gilbert Arenas and a first rounder. Absorb a bad contract or two. Get really, straight forward awful, but stock pile lottery picks. 

Basically it comes down to this: You can either still be a team struggling to get to 30 wins three years from now, or you can have a team that's entering into a golden age stocked with young talent that you can lock up for six or seven years.

The getting worse strategy eventually worked for the Bulls and it could work for the Raptors. Toronto fans need to dream nightmares, not day dreams.

Credibility Factor: 3 

Utah Jazz

Rarely have I seen a team fall so hard so fast.

In just a few weeks time Utah went from being a good team going through a tough time to being a bad team going through a horrible time.

They lost their Hall of Fame coach and their cornerstone in the blink of an eye and saw neither coming. 

The thing is that this team actually has a lot to be encouraged by. They have a lot of good big men who are either in their prime or about to enter it.  They have Al Jefferson, Mehmet Okur, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors, and now, Enes Kanter. 

The result is that most of the speculation is about which big man they move more than whether they move a big man. Al Jefferson and Mehmet Okur are the most frequently mentioned names. 

That's pretty big when you're talking about potentially making a move for a player like Chris Paul or Dwight Howard. They can deal for a position of strength and still not fill one hole to create another. A lot of the rumors seem to involve going after Paul. 

It's hard to imagine how they are going to keep all their big men on the bench and still get their use out of them all. Coupled with the fact that Okur could either have value as a sign and trade prospect or as a move to free up cap space, and it's easy to see how he could be moved. 

Whether Devin Harris or Chris Paul is the point guard of the future, look for the Jazz to move one of their big men to upgrade on the perimeter.

The one mitigating factor could be injuries. If one or more goes down they might think twice about pulling the trigger on a trade. 

Credibility Factor: 8 

Washington Wizards

For the Wizards at the moment the most intriguing and potentially disconcerting news is that their young shooting guard who really started to break out last year, Nick Young, is potentially headed for China. If he goes to China he would not be able to return to the NBA until after the season there is over. 

That's not good for Washington, who had extended Young an offer before the lockout. As a restricted fee agent, they'll be able to match any other offers.

With John Wall, the number one overall pick from 2010, and JaVale McGee who is an absolutely electric young center, they have the makings of a bright nucleus for the future. 

However the bad years are a good thing to go through together. The players need to learn one another and develop together.

Having Young on the other side of the Great Wall, and the potentially great Wall on this side of it means they won't be able to develop together. 

There's not much to do except resort to finger crossing. 

Credibility Factor: 9