Seattle Seahawks 2011 Predictions: Outcome for All 16 Regular Season Games

The Seahawks surprised most by making the playoffs in 2010 with a sub-.500 record. They head into 2011 rebuilding, yet still intent on owning the NFC West; many would say rebuilding and winning don't go hand in hand, and rightfully so.

The Seahawks got "lucky" in 2010; so naturally something's got to give, right?

Pete Carroll lost six games in his first season as Trojans head coach; it took him five seasons to lose his next six games. Once the "always compete" philosophy clicked for the program and he was able to acquire the right talent, there was no looking back.  

Heading into 2011 the Seahawks have lofty goals, but face higher expectations as a result.

We haven't even reached game two of the preseason; the quarterback situation is ambiguous and the “competition” hasn’t even begun; the first wave of cuts is yet to occur and the Seahawks' staff is just beginning to learn a team that has only 17 players remaining from the old regime.

We’re a long way from week 1, so any predictions must remain in context; there is widespread uncertainty around the league, most teams merely trying to make up for the lockout. The Seahawks are among the group of most uncertain.  

They believe they can “own the division"; Seattle is also extremely young, unproven and implementing widespread personnel changes on the coaching staff.

Starting with the opening kickoff, the season has the potential to go down very divergent paths; let's explore two of those routes.

Week 1 @ San Francisco

It’s Jim Harbaugh’s first game as an NFL head coach and Carroll's first chance at redemption for a stale homecoming in week 14 of last season, a 40-21 loss that was a mismatch from the start.

The difference is this time Carroll's team comes in as division champions; for the second year in a row, momentum for the division crown is in the balance week 1.

In the 2010 season opener, the 49ers went to Seattle as division favorites—but not as defending division champions—looking to complete step one in Mike Singletary’s short-lived conquest to win the NFC West.

Instead, the Seahawks surprised everyone and jumped out in front of the division. 

The Seahawks' defense of the division starts here; Jim Harbaugh wants to play the role of spoiler and perhaps more in his first season.

A short-lived but tough rivalry between Carroll and Harbaugh will be renewed Week 1.  

Path A: Win 

Path B: Loss

Week 2 @ Pittsburgh

The last time these two teams met in the regular season, Mack Strong’s career ended. The time before that, the Seahawks lost the Super Bowl.

Last season, Carroll claimed that he was not one to look too much into past records and performances from the old regime; either way, this is a history that Seahawks fans would like to see the new regime re-write.

The Steelers have won their home opener in overtime the past two seasons; they haven’t opened with a loss at home under Mike Tomlin (4-0). 

Is it possible something gives and a jacked up Pete Carroll and the Seahawks start the season hot, setting the course for a raucous home opener by winning their first 10 AM PST game?

Or will the Terrible Towels wave the Seahawks right out of Pittsburgh?

Path A: Loss

Path B: Loss

Week 3 vs. Arizona

This will be the week in which the inevitable “the Seahawks should have traded for Kevin Kolb” cries come out, especially if the first two weeks’ quarterbacking leaves a bit to be desired.

With Kolb on the other side, the scrutiny will be placed squarely on whoever starts for Seattle to perform well. Will the difference between $65 million—not to mention a talented corner and a second-round pick—and $8 million be on display?

One advantage for Seattle: they presumably spent a good deal of time evaluating Kolb this offseason and know how to make life difficult for him; especially given it will be his first time starting in the hostile CLink atmosphere.

No matter the results of the first two weeks, this will be a charged game as the Seahawks finally open their home schedule.

Path A: Win

Path B: Win

Week 4 vs. Atlanta

The Seahawks lost to the Falcons in Week 15 last year; the first 28 minutes were among the highest intensity stretches the Seahawks played all year, but they fell flat on their face into and out of halftime.

The Falcons underachieved in their eyes in 2010; a strong start to 2011 would include another victory on the road, in Seattle.

On the flip side, the Seahawks know this is another tough test against one of the league's best. They will need to contain the Falcons offense and convert on fourth down, a battle the Falcons won last year.

A home win would signify a form of progress, while a loss for the Falcons would be a disappointing result. The Seahawks wont be back home until Week 8; leaving here with an unforeseen win would send the Seahawks east with significant momentum, but is Atlanta too much to handle? 

Path A: Loss

Path B: Loss 

Week 5 @ New York Giants

The Giants have travelled west to Seattle in recent seasons, with mixed results. The lost in 2005 while registering a staggering 11 false starts in record-setting fashion; New York beat Seattle in 2010 to the tune of their second worst home defeat in franchise history.

Seattle struggled with "bringin' it on the road" early in 2010 and notably worked on their road routine and attitude during the bye, between the loss in St. Louis and win in Chicago. 

Similar to 2010, they face back-to-back games on the road into and out of the bye; this will be an early season litmus test for Seattle and will be an important game to gauge the effectiveness of their routine for 10 AM PST games—they have five in 2011.

Path A: Win

Path B: Loss

Week 7 @ Cleveland

Last year the Seahawks came out of the bye week with a crucial victory in Chicago; in 2011 they visit the Browns, a rebuilding ball club with a raucous fanbase.

The post-bye week game is crucial as is, a chance to set the tone going into the second half of the season. Add the fact that Mike Holmgren is the new czar building the Browns and this game has added meaning for the 12^th man.

Will Seattle choose to use a similar travel formula they used last year for the Chicago victory? This is a game that could be tougher than anticipated and the bye week will give the organization ample time to prepare for what some may see as a “shoe in” game.

I see this as a possible trap game and a healthy Peyton Hillis as one of the few backs who can play the power game versus Seattle's potential size.    

Path A: Loss

Path B: Win

Week 8 vs. Cincinnati

Besides the final score, this game has some potentially interesting story lines:

The Seahawks will get to see the plug and play quarterback they passed on in the draft, Andy Dalton; how many "please trade us Carson Palmer" signs will we see? Does Carson Palmer go to the game, as he has relocated to the Seattle area? 

This is one of those shoe-in games that the team need will need to win to make the playoffs. Even if the Seahawks are struggling heading into this one, the 12th man will be discouraged without a win.  

Path A: Win

Path B: Win

Week 9 @ Dallas

The Cowboys are a wild-card team for 2011. Jason Garrett has been with the Cowboys as a coach since 2007 and spent 1993-1999 as their backup quarterback.

For a bit of background; the Princeton grad retired as a Dolphin and went straight onto the coaching staff in 2005 as quarterbacks coach, to give an indication of the expectations surrounding his coaching abilities.  

He is an intelligent, no-nonsense, driven young coach who Jerry Jones believes will bring a ring back to Dallas.

Since the Tony Romo botched snap and resulting tackle by "big play" Babs in January of '07, Seattle is 0-2 in Dallas, losing by a combined score of 72-26.  

Rob Ryan is installing a tough-nosed defense for the Cowboys; recent history suggests they could be breathing down the Seahawks' necks all game, or does Seattle change their luck? 

Path A: Win

Path B: Loss

Week 10 vs. Baltimore

The only time the Ravens visited Seattle, Ray Lewis did not play and the Seahawks won 27-6.

Lewis is on a Super Bowl mission and the CLink will be the ultimate test for the all-time great middle linebacker. Ed Reed recently admitted age and wear are catching up to him; Joe Flacco no longer has his main, veteran weapons in Derrick Mason or Todd Heap.

Given the Ravens’ Super Bowl goals, the CLink atmosphere is as good a regular season litmus test, in terms of dealing with opposing crowds, the Ravens could ask for. Health will be a key factor for them.

One key factor for Seattle is who will play quarterback in Week 10, and have they recently taken over that job? A fresh target to hit would certainly be a welcome site for the Ravens, but I'm not convinced Seattle loses this game.

Path A: Win

Path B: Loss

Week 11 @ St. Louis

The Seahawks’ offense put up a stinker at St. Louis in Week 4 last season, ultimately letting a hobbled Steven Jackson lead the Rams to victory; the Rams were 4-1 before the bye in 2010.

This season, they meet twice after November 1^st. Instead of getting Sam Bradford as he is just learning the NFL, they will see a second-year quarterback intent on knocking the Seahawks from their perch atop the division; he will be leading an improved and hungry team.

After the Rams won in Seattle in the 2005 Wild Card round, Seattle ripped off 10 straight wins before losing in Week 4 of 2010. This will be the Rams’ first chance at payback after their Week 17 “playoff” loss. No matter Seattle’s play to this point, walking away victorious from this contest should prove difficult.

Path A: Loss

Path B: Loss

Week 12 vs. Washington

The Redskins are another team I'm interested to see in 2011. Conventional wisdom says this is a team rebuilding, transitioing at quarterback and replacing major pieces on defense.

But Mike Shanahann is a Super Bowl-winning coach. He moved on from a potential Hall of Fame quarterback into this season, a firm sign that he operates under his own rules.

To me, this sets up as the Carolina, 2010-type game for 2011; a losing team that plays tougher than their record and potentially gives Seattle problems.

Last time, Walter Jones raised the 12^th man flag, which "inspired" a 31-unanswered-point onslaught; does the organization try to employ a similar strategy in 2011?

Path A: Win

Path B: Win

Week 13 vs. Philadelphia

Frankly, I cant wait for this game; Andy Reid and Pete Carroll both like to scheme, tinker and create explosive plays.

This should be a battle of big-armed quarterbacks and aggressive defense, as well as two athletic, fast teams that focus on creating mismatches. If both teams play to their potential and are healthy, this could be a very juicy game.

The Seahawks are not a team usually in the national spotlight; though they certainly made their presence felt in the recent past. This is the first of two national games against strong competition, at home; this is the exposure Seattle has been waiting for, but unfortunately they currently stand as the underdogs in the first game.

Path A: Loss

Path B: Loss 

Week 14 vs. St. Louis

The Rams come back to Seattle for a prime time rematch, the game when the championship atmosphere under Pete Carroll was first unveiled.

When I sat in my seat before kickoff at the CLink Week one of 2010, it was exciting; but the mood was tense and nerves overwhelmed.

I arrived about an hour before kickoff for Week 17 and it felt like football season wasn’t over—Pete Carroll had a visibly different energy in the Week 17 press conference than he had in prior weeks, and the attitude was visible as the players warmed up before the game.

Pete Carroll is a man of many methods; if this game has championship implications, such as controlling one’s own destiny within the division, does Carroll try and draw upon their past experience?

It could be a similar situation from a playoff perspective; the game is the same time of day and there is equal potential for cold, inclement weather—welcome back, Josh Brown. This is a game the Seahawks will need to win for their season to continue successfully.

Path A: Win

Path B: Loss

Week 15 @ Chicago

Rams and Bears back to back, again? Not quite the exact same scenario as in 2010, but noteworthy the Seahawks make another cold weather trip to Chicago so soon in the Pete Carroll era.

This game should have playoff implications for at least one team; anything otherwise would be a disappointment.

Seattle faced a similar situation last year heading into Tampa in Week 16 and got a freebie; Matt Hasselbeck got injured, but the result was irrelevant in the end.

This game begins the three-game stretch to close the season; it’s the last game outside the division and an end-of-season litmus test, measuring how prepared this team is to play championship football in less than ideal conditions.

Or, it will be the first of three games in which the team can take a peek towards 2012 and potentially test the depth of the program, and even steal a win?

Path A: Loss

Path B: Win 

Week 16 vs. San Francisco

Whether the Seahawks go into the season’s final two games with the chance to retain their division crown or are playing the role of spoiler, I’d expect Pete Carroll to field a competitive team.

On the other side, it’s possible rookie Colin Kaepernick is just learning the ropes of the NFL; the CLink isn’t friendly to  rookie quarterbacks—just ask Cardinals 2010 Week 7 starter Max Hall, who was pulled in the second half.

But if Jim Harbaugh has a Pete Carroll-like first season, Alex Smith could still be in the driver seat and attempting to conquer demons from his past at the CLink—such as the 49ers' six total first downs on Monday night in ’07 or last year’s implosion to open the season.

Given the style of both coaches, this game has the potential to be a brawl, even if both teams are out of contention and late season frustrations are flowing.

Path A: Win

Path B: Win 

Week 17 @ Arizona

The Seahawks' Week 10 win in Arizona last season is the road victory that gave the them the confidence to lose proudly in New Orleans in Week 11; it was a glimpse of football that ultimately helped the Seahawks believe they were capable of winning in Week 17.

Plus, wouldn’t it be ironic if the Seahawks and Kevin Kolb squared off for the division title in Week 17? Or the Seahawks get the chance to prove he wasn’t worth the price tag, at least for now? Not to mention the Seahawks and Cardinals “competed” for Charlie Whitehurst in the 2010 offseason.

Pete Carroll acknowledged late last season his mindset would be skewed if he was thinking about the potential top-15 draft pick instead of winning football games.

Does a failed quarterback experiment lead to similar questions heading into Week 17 or do both teams encounter a unique chance to judge their "competing” personnel decisions, with the division on the line?

Path A: Win

Path B: Loss

Preparing for the Playoffs…or Preparing for a Premium Draft Pick

The Seahawks have played one game thus far in 2011, and ultimately the result doesn’t matter.

We saw them fight for a full 60 minutes and win in the final minute; but they also showed they are a young team undergoing transition at multiple positions and are still searching for leadership.

If leadership materializes and Seattle finds their groove throughout the preseason, there is a chance Carroll’s formula works and the Seahawks are unexpectedly off and running to defend their division crown—something similar to Carroll's ascent at USC. The coaching changes prove to be for the better, immediately, and the extreme personnel turnover found players who fit the scheme, now. They most likely win the division.

This is "path A," a final record of 10-6

Otherwise, the Seahawks will struggle for one of many reasons: the quarterback situation will remain in flux, the receiving corps won't come together as it's looking right now, a rebuilt offensive line won't gel, the defensive line will continue to battle injuries, the linebacker corps will be too thin to hold the defense together, or the Seahawks will simply be too inexperienced in the secondary.

They will play hard, win a couple of unexpected games, but ultimately fall victim to a brutal schedule and gain the perk of a top 15-ish draft pick. A season where always competing doesn't always have winning results, or at least one without the same fortune they received last year.  

This is "path B," a final record of 6-10

After one quarter of the 2011 preseason, the regular season projection has already met a fork in the road; the next three games will lead to a final projection, which will put the Seahawks atop the NFC West or somewhere towards the bottom of the pack.