Chicago Bears 2011 Predictions: Outcomes For All 16 Regular Season Games

The midweek task is daunting.  Rosters aren't set.  Injuries have yet to occur.  And yet, here we are.

We are going to take a stab at predicting the 16 games regular season schedule for the Chicago Bears.  

Unfortunately, I smashed my crystal ball last year when it showed the the carnage that was to come in the 2010 Week 4 meeting between the Bears and the Giants.  I mean, who wants to watch that?

So this year, we'll take a look at the teams as we know them now and try to make some educated guesses on what is over the horizon for the Bears.

So remember, these predictions are based on the current rosters and coaching staffs, what teams accomplished last season and how those roster and coaching changes will evolve those teams. We'll also try to access the quality of depth in case of injury.

The Bears improved over the offseason.  But this didn't happen in a vacuum.  The Packers, Lions and Vikings all improved as well, and so did the majority of the rest of the teams in the league.  

Many will look and say that the Bears acquired Gabe Carimi, Stephen Paea, Roy Williams and Marion Barber and that has to count for "X" number of wins gained.  But that assumes that other teams stayed the same, which we know is not the case.  There is no mathematical formula to determine how many wins new acquisitions will garner or fresh departures will cost.

Taking all of that into account, let's dust off the magnifying glass rather than the crystal ball and take a stab at predicting the 2011 Chicago Bears regular season games.

Week 1: Falcons @ Bears

The Falcons could be the team to beat in 2010, and most predictions aren't giving the Bears much of a chance against the Dirty Birds.

The loss of Harvey Dahl to free agency is a sting to the Falcons running game but likely won't result in a huge obstacle to their improving passing game.  And while the Falcons put a lot of stock in Julio Jones, it is rare for a receiver to be an immediate game-breaker in his rookie season, so don't expect Jones to be much of a factor in his first NFL game.

The Bears secondary will get a coverage boost, as run-stuffing SS Danieal Manning leaves and clutch safety Chris Harris moves into that spot.  Either Major Wright or Chris Conte will end up starting the season in the free safety position and whichever is teamed with Harris is a better coverage option for the Bears at safety than they fronted last season.

The Bears defensive line also is seeing a boost.  Defensive tackle Henry Melton came to camp 30 pounds heavier than last season at the request of the Bears and the team resigned Anthony Adams, who is one of the leagues best at clogging the middle.  Stephen Paea will also be in the rotation, as will Amobi Okoye and Matt Toeaina.  This should take some of the pressure off of Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije and allow them to create more havoc in the backfield.

On the other side of the ball, the Bears did more improving offensively than the Falcons did defensively.  A full year into Mike Martz's offensive strategy will help the team that struggled to learn the complex scheme last year on the fly.  Roy Williams, who was a Pro-Bowler in Martz's scheme in Detroit, was brought in to help the passing game.  The young offensive line was bolstered by the addition of RT Gabe Carimi, but lost veteran center Olin Kreutz.  This offense will live and die by this offensive line.

Meanwhile, the only major addition to the Falcons defense comes in the form of former Vikings DE Ray Edwards.  Edwards was a decent DE who benefited greatly from Jared Allen, Pat Williams and Kevin Williams.  Without that type of distraction, it remains to be seen whether Edwards will be able to put up similar production.

I'm going against the grain on this one.  The Bears defense seems to match up well against the Falcons offense, and I think the Falcons defense takes a step backwards this season.   The Falcons will be a force to reckon with this year.  But both teams are going to be looking to make adjustments, and the Bears are more used to compensating for their deficiencies than the Falcons are.

Prediction: Bears win 24-17 at home.

Week 2: Bears @ Saints

The Saints were among the best passing teams in the league last year.  They also sucked rushing the ball.  So what do they do?  Draft Mark Ingram in the first round and let Reggie Bush walk away, nabbing up Darren Sproles, who can do everything Bush did for less money.  

They also re-signed top free agent guard Carl Nicks and brought in a few other linemen to try and bolster their trenches, including former Bear Olin Kreutz and Dallas tackle/turnstile Alex Barron.  How will all of that work out?  

Probably pretty well.  Ingram is a beast, and while Olin won't help much in the running game, he will provide veteran leadership and good pass-blocking to a line that could use both.

The Saints also worked to improve their already seventh ranked scoring defense.  Signing CB Fabian Washington should help their fourth ranked passing defense, and Aubrayo Franklin should help shore up the DT rotation and solidify the run defense.

The media is going to try to make a big story about Olin Kreutz facing the Bears for the first time, but it will really not make much of a difference to the game.

This is going to be a speed game played on a fast field.  And for two pass-heavy schemes, it will likely come down to the running game and the offensive lines.  Chicago has consistently been one of the best teams in the league against the run over the past decade, while New Orleans has bounced around the mediocre middle.  Both offensive line units are questionable, though New Orleans is only so in their run-blocking.

Prediction: Saints win 24-21

Week 3: Packers @ Bears

Oh, and here's were it gets really interesting.  

While the Bears will have already played two of the best teams the NFC has to offer, this is the game that will be looked at as the "test" even if the Bears were to lose the first two.

Last season, these teams played three games against one another, and no game was decided by more than seven points.  

The Bears couldn't figure out the Packers defense, and the Packers had the same problem with the Bears, with neither team scoring more than 17 offensive points in any of the three games and no more than 30 offensive points scored together in any of the three contests.

The Bears figure to have taken a step forward offensively this season, while the Packers are not likely to see the number of injuries this year that they did last season.  In all, expect at least two more close and hard-fought games by the leagues most fierce rivals.

Prediction: Bears win 17-14 at home.

Week 4: Panthers @ Bears

The Panthers were last years doormats, costing John Fox his job and ushering in the Ron Rivera era in Carolina.

But with so much work to do, don't expect the Panthers to pull a 2008 Miami rebound.  The Panthers will have a rough year, and it won't be pretty when they come to Chicago.

The Panthers worked to improve, drafting quarterback Cam Newton first overall and defensive tackle Terrell McClain along with re-signing James Anderson, DeAngelo Williams, Jon Beason and Charles Johnson, signing quarterback Derek Anderson as insurance for their two young quarterbacks and trading for former Bears TE Greg Olsen.

But the uphill climb will be too steep for Rivera to drag the Panthers up in his first year.

The Bears beat the Panthers 23-6 in 2010 without Jay Cutler and with the backups throwing 19 passes and completing only eight.

Expect a big win for the Bears in Chicago.

Prediction: Bears Win 31-13

Week 5: Bears @ Lions

The Lions have made steady improvements since bringing in head coach Jim Schwartz, and this year appears no different.

Grabbing value in the draft even in the first round, the Lions added DT Nick Fairley, WR Titus Young and RB Mikel Leshoure in the first two rounds.  Leshoure was lost to injury for the season already, and Fairley comes with character concerns that allowed him to drop from a possible No. 1 overall pick down to 13th, where the Lions snapped him up.  

The Lions hope that pairing him next to DT/Superman Ndamukong Suh will help his attitude and create an inside wall, the likes of which have not been seen since the Williams Wall in Minnesota was young.

The Pride also bolstered their defense through free agency, bringing in linebackers Kevin Durant and Stephen Tulloch and defensive back Eric Wright.  

Will these moves be enough for the Lions to actually compete for the division in 2011?  The Lions are no longer a team that can be counted as two automatic wins when peering down the schedule.

That being said, the Lions aren't quite there yet, and the Bears have improved as well.  Chicago won't likely keep Detroit in the game the way they did last year with another year to learn Mike Martz's system. 

Questions still surround Matthew Stafford's ability to stay healthy, though he reportedly bulked up in an attempt to endure impacts.

These games won't be automatic, but the Bears should be able to come out on top. Strangely enough, I think the Bears have a bigger advantage in Detroit than they do at home.  With the fast playing surface at Ford Field and Chicago's timing and precision based offense being built for speed, the Bears stand to perform better on artificial surface.

Prediction: Bears win 30-24

Week 6: Vikings @ Bears

The Vikings did a lot and at the same time not much in the offseason in 2011.

Brett Favre is gone, but he's replaced by another veteran who is coming off a poor season in Donovan McNabb.  

McNabb had his worst season in 2010 and was benched for Rex Grossman, of all people.  But the Vikings think he can be their stop-gap, while first-round rookie Christian Ponder gets up to speed.

In truth, it's a great move.  McNabb was in a poor situation in Washington and stands a good chance of rebounding with the Vikings.  Additionally, he's known for taking younger players under his wing and helping them take the next step.  Michael Vick gives McNabb a ton of credit in his rebound, and Kevin Kolb owns plenty to McNabb, as well.  He's a consummate professional and one of the leagues true good guys.

But the Vikings didn't do a lot to help him out offensively.  They let their top receiver get away and weren't exactly active in free agency.  Also somewhat baffling is the use of their second-round pick to take admittedly good TE Kyle Rudolph when the team had so many whole, most notably on the offensive line, when Visanthe Shiancoe on the roster.  

I'm all for draft value, but....really?

The Vikings also lost defensive end Ray Edwards, cut CB Midieu Williams and didn't re-sign DT Pat Williams.  Additionally, DT Kevin Williams has publicly stated that he expects to be suspended part of this season after a conclusion to the long fought banned substance (related to Star Caps, not steroids) disciplinary action that the league has been trying to impose for two seasons and the Williams Wall has fought in court ever since.

The Vikings are in rebuilding mode and this will be a tough year for them to finish anywhere but fourth in the division.  I honestly don't see them winning a division game.  So.....

Prediction: Bears win 27-10

Week 7: Bears @ Buccaneers (in London)

The Bucs are a young team on the rise.  They have a very good young quarterback in Josh Freeman and an equally good young rusher in LeGarrette Blount.

Tampa added top defensive ends to their line through the draft in Adrian Clayborn and Da'Quan Bowers and felt comfortable allowing their young team to develop rather than plunging into free agency.  Instead, they re-signed their own and rested on their draft and the current roster.

The Bears don't match up well with the Bucs, and I think the Bears end their NFC South series with a low scoring loss.

Prediction: Bucs win 20-10

Week 9: Bears @ Eagles.

Last year, the Bears' coming-out party came against the Eagles, as the Bears quieted the doubters for at least a little while with a quality win over Mike Vick and the Eagles.

The Bears have improved since last season, but the Eagles were also a great team last year.  And the Eagles have done more in this offseason than any team in the league.

After a fine draft that saw the Eagles net top guard Danny Watkins and promising DBs Jaiquawn Jarrett and Curtis Marsh, the Eagles busted free agency wide open by nabbing CB Nnamdi Asomugha, DT Cullen Jenkins, DE Jason Babin, RB Ronnie Brown, QB Vince Young and T Ryan Harris.

Frankly, the Eagles are being called the "Dream Team," and it's hard to argue the point.

Prediction: Eagles win 31-17

Week 10: Lions @ Bears

As discussed before, the Lions are no longer the league's pushovers.  Also discussed was the possibility that the Bears have more of an advantage at Ford Field than they do at Soldier Field.

Rather than rehashing the same things, let's just get to the prediction.

Prediction: Lions win 24-20

Week 11: Chargers @ Bears

San Diego's offseason was about as good as it gets.  Not only did they re-sign every important piece except Darren Sproles, but they managed to add LB Takeo Spikes, S Bob Sanders and WR Laurent Robinson and Kelley Washington.  

Their draft was among the best in the league, as well.  The Chargers managed to snag DT Corey Liuget, CB Marcus Gilchrist and LB Jonas Mouton in the first two rounds of the draft, bolstering their already strong defense.

But San Diego has been tops in talent for quite a while.  The problem has always been putting all of that talent together, not amassing it.  In that, coaching seems to be a key to the issue.  Is this the year that Norv Turner finally pulls it together in San Diego?

Prediction: Chargers win 31-27

Week 12: Bears @ Raiders

The Raiders have been panned for their offseason moves this year.  Somewhat unjustly so.

Yes, they lost their best player in free agency.  Nnamdi Asomugha jumped ship and the Raiders were the victims.  They also lost TE Zach Miller.  They were forced to overpay to re-sign Kamerion Wimbley to keep from losing their two best defensive players. 

But the Raiders did a lot to help their offensive line, drafting C Stefen Wisniewski and T Joseph Barksdale in the second and third round, respectively.  They also added TE Kevin Boss to replace Miller and signed Derek Hagen to help out the wide receiving corps.

But while the Raiders might be taking steps forward, they are still a long way from being a contender.

Prediction: Bears win 21-7

Week 13: Chiefs @ Bears

The Chiefs are another team on the rise who will improve again this year.

Not incredibly active in free agency, the Chiefs still signed a few notable players in WR Steve Breaston, DT Kelly Gregg and T Jared Gaither.  

Their draft also provided more offensive help when Kansas City nabbed WR Jonathan Baldwin and G Rodney Hudson in the first two rounds.  

And maybe most important was their retaining of LB Tamba Hali.

The Bears are going to have their hands full when the Chiefs come to town.

Prediction: Bears win 27-20

Week 14: Bears @ Broncos

Oh, the media storm that will surround this game.  Jay Cutler returns to Denver.

Let's face it, John Fox didn't have a ton to work with when he got to Denver, and he wasn't fantastic utilizing what he had to work with in Carolina.

That being said, Denver's offseason wasn't bad.  They were lucky in unsuccessfully shopping Kyle Orton and managed to sign RB Willis McGahee, TE Dante Rosario and DT Ty Warren and traded for DT Brodrick Bunkley.

While that be enough for the Broncos to show up their former QB?

Prediction: Bears win 35-13

Week 15: Seahawks @ Bears

The Seahawks did a lot this offseason to make themselves better.  

Seattle grabbed TE Zach Miller, QB Tarvaris Jackson, WR Sidney Rice, G Robert Gallery, DT Ryan Sims and S Atari Bigby after drafting guards James Carpenter and John Moffitt with their first and third- round picks in the draft to bolster their terrible offensive line.

Seattle did lose Lofa Tatufu, Matt Hasselbeck and Chris Spencer but, at this point, Hasselbeck and Spencer could be seen as addition by subtraction.

Pete Carroll has his team moving in the right direction. But it won't be enough to cover the ground against Chicago.

Prediction: Bears win 21-17

Week 16: Bears @ Packers

By this point in the season, this game may very well determine who wins the NFC North.  And the Packers are hard to beat in Lambeau.

Prediction: Packers win 13-7

Week 17 Bears @ Vikings

The final game in the season will see the Bears fighting for a wildcard spot and the Vikings trying to play spoiler.

The Bears play well with their backs against the wall, and the Vikings just don't have enough.

Prediction:  Bears win 31-17

Conclusion

The Bears will finish the season a better team, but will not win the division, and due to losses to the Saints and the Bucs, they will need help making the playoffs.

Final Prediction:  Bears end the season 10-6 in second place in the NFC North and will narrowly miss the playoffs by virtue of losses to the Saints and Bucs.

Now it's your turn, ladies and gentlemen.  Step up on the soapbox below, also known as the comment thread, and let your voices be heard.

Give us your predictions for this years schedule or for this years record.  Or tell us why you agree or disagree.  We want to hear what you think, so sound off loud and proud!