Odds of Landing Each Team If the Big 12 Collapses

With the ongoing drama over Texas A&M's apparent move to the SEC, there continues to be debate over whether or not the Big 12 will collapse. 

If it does, who might want to call the Big Ten home?

There's little doubt that the remaining BCS automatic qualifying conferences will be tripping over themselves to get the very best "scraps" from the defunct Big 12. There are good television markets to be had and even better recruiting opportunities. 

Certainly, the Big Ten has a lot they can offer. The equal-sharing platform that it employs in regards to its coffers is undoubtedly preferential to those programs that have long felt left in the cold of Texas' rather large shadow.

Even Oklahoma—giant that they are in their own right—isn't happy with what is going on with the new Longhorn Network (LHN).

Can the Big Ten snag the mighty Sooners in yet another home run expansion scenario?  What about Texas Tech? Is there anyone else they might want?

What about the schools that might want to join the Big Ten, like Iowa State or Missouri (assuming the latter doesn't get invited to the SEC)?

What are the odds?

Notice: These are my odds, not Vegas odds; I'm not a bookie, I don't gamble and if you do gamble using these odds, that's on you, not me. I'm just a writer. Take that for what it's worth.

Texas A&M: 100-1

Why the Big Ten Might Want the Aggies:

As the old saying goes, the secret to a successful business is location, location, location—and there's no bigger football haven than Texas.

Friday Night Lights. Varsity Blues. 

They didn't choose Texas as the backdrop of those stories for nothing. Folks down there are almost pathetically fanatic about their football (though both of those movies were about high school football and not college). 

Any school from Texas (even TCU) brings with it a rabid fanbase and guaranteed viewership for the Big Ten Network. It also might open some recruiting doors for existing conference teams into one of the biggest hotbeds in America.

The Aggies had a 9-4 season last year and another one in 2006. The years in between have been considerably slimmer, but they wouldn't bring a "loser" program into the conference. They would compete—at least initially.

Why the Aggies Might Want the Big Ten:

They don't.

Well, the Big Ten isn't their first choice, obviously.

If they did, it would be because they know they'd get equal revenue sharing with everyone else in the conference—which is a considerable chunk of change—and would get equal exposure on the conference network.

All of that might be nice, but it's not good enough. 

The Aggies want the SEC, and there's money in the SEC. 

There's exposure in the SEC too, and the SEC is a more logical geographical fit for Texas A&M. 

Why go way up north to play in the frigid tundra of Wisconsin, far from home, when they can potentially play in the bayou of Louisiana? 

Why deal with the long trips to Ohio or Pennsylvania for "rivalries" that have no real meaning when they can battle it out in Mississippi or Alabama?

That doesn't even touch the prestige that comes with joining the conference that has dominated the National Championship in recent years.

Why These Odds:

The Big Ten has virtually no shot at landing Texas A&M. They'll hitch the first wagon to SEC-ville by sun up and won't look back.

If that fails, the Pac-12 might be an option before the Big Ten ever gets a shot at the Aggies.

The SEC said "not now" Sunday, but they left the door open if things change. The Aggies will hold out for that change, unless things are really so bad that they absolutely can't wait to get out of the Big 12.

These odds might have gotten a little too steep now that the SEC has vetoed A&M's move, but I don't think the Aggies are looking to go north. They want to stay in the South, and the Big Ten would have to put up quite a sales pitch to change their minds.

Iowa State: 80-1

Why the Big Ten Might Want the Cyclones:

They don't. Iowa State offers nothing to the Big Ten, except warm bodies.

The Cyclones have had a few good years, but they're routinely in the lower tier of the Big 12. Ames doesn't open any doors that the University of Iowa hasn't already unlocked, and Iowa isn't exactly a recruiting hotbed. 

Iowa State doesn't have an historic name, and they don't command a large national audience. 

Truthfully, the Big Ten has no concern for the plight of the Cyclones.

Why the Cyclones Might Want the Big Ten:

I should think that would be obvious. 

Iowa State is in no position to demand more from the Big 12 than they're currently getting and definitely cannot compete with Texas in terms of what they bring to the table.

In the Big Ten, they would be equals. The exposure alone could pay huge dividends in recruiting, and the additional funds couldn't hurt the program either. 

Perhaps the biggest advantage, though, would be security. Some fans think the Big 12 will pull in a couple of mid-major schools (like Air Force) and be just fine. Plenty others think the conference is falling apart under the weight of Texas' Lone Star deal with ESPN, and programs are fleeing the conference as a result.

Either way, the conference isn't particularly stable right now. Even if it does pick up a few new faces, it's hard to believe it will be as attractive to the media markets as it was in the past. Eventually programs such as Oklahoma will begin looking for greener pastures as well.

The future of the Big 12 is strongly in question. The Cyclones would love to join a conference like the Big Ten, knowing that it is financially strong and its member institutions are truly committed to seeing their "home" endure well into the future. 

The conference has been around for a very long time, and the schools take great pride in the traditions forged over the century (plus) of competition they've shared. That's something the Cyclones would cherish greatly in these uncertain times in the Big 12.

Why These Odds:

In the end, there's no reason for the Big Ten to extend an offer. The only positive the Cyclones might bring would be the security of their in-state rivalry with the University of Iowa. 

That, however, has existed quite nicely even with the two teams in different conferences and should continue to in the future.

Even if the Hawkeyes went to bat for the Cyclones, it wouldn't really help. Not that Iowa isn't a respected member of the Big Ten, but the Hawkeyes need the Big Ten far more than the Big Ten needs the Hawkeyes. They only have so much pull, and it's not enough.

When the Big 12 finishes going Supernova, expect the Cyclones to be one of the teams left out in the cold, frantically searching for a new home. 

Don't expect it to be in the Big Ten.

Kansas State: 75-1

Why the Big Ten Might Want the Wildcats:

The Big Ten doesn't have an entity in the state of Kansas, so there might be an argument for breaking into that market—except Manhattan, Kan. doesn't really have a "market," so-to-speak; the larger Kansas market would be Kansas City, which the University of Kansas calls home. 

The Wildcats had a 7-6 record in 2010 that included a 17-13 victory over No. 21 UCF. Unfortunately, that's the first winning season they've had since 2006, and that was another 7-6 campaign. 

That's not going to turn any heads in a conference that is used to pulling in names like Penn State and Nebraska—teams that traditionally go bowling. 

Much like Iowa State, K-State just doesn't bring much to the table on the football side of the coin.  Yes, they're a basketball power, and that can't be overlooked, but let's be honest here: Football earns far more money than basketball.

Geography does help them a little though, as they would be yet one more Midwestern state the Big Ten could call home. 

Why the Wildcats Might want the Big Ten:

Again, I have to draw comparisons to Iowa State. 

In all of the expansion talk that has been swirling over the last two years, Kansas State is a name that routinely pops up as one being left out in the cold.

You can be sure that Kansas State isn't particularly happy about getting such a small overall piece of the Big 12 pie, but they put up with it because they don't have the draw to just jump ship like Nebraska and Colorado did (and like Texas A&M is apparently going to do). 

The Wildcats would undoubtedly love all the perks they would receive by being a part of the Big Ten. I don't think I have to lay those out yet again.

Geographically-speaking, there are some natural rivals that could also bolster K-State's program; a renewed battle with neighboring Nebraska would be welcome. Iowa and Illinois are also close enough to create a natural regional draw, as is Minnesota.

Why These Odds:

I just don't see it happening. 

Kansas State is only slightly more coveted than Iowa State thanks to their basketball program, but that's not enough to sway many voters. The Big Ten could grab Kansas State as a means to a bigger end, but I see much better options out there than the Wildcats.

Texas: 50-1

Why the Big Ten Might Want the Longhorns:

The Big Ten is all about adding big names, and they don't get a whole lot bigger than Texas.

The Big Ten is all about adding viewership, and there aren't too many bigger audiences and market than Texas'. 

Texas has everything the Big Ten would love to have in their conference. They're a proven commodity.

Why the Longhorns Might Want the Big Ten:

For all of the talk about going Independent, there are a couple things Texas can't ignore.

First, getting into a BCS bowl could become a bit more difficult than anticipated—ask Notre Dame how tough it is. Really.

They would undoubtedly get the same "sweetheart" deal the Irish supposedly have, but they would still have to finish the regular season ranked in the Top 12. 

Not a problem? No, it wasn't a problem in 2010 either. 

Oh, that's right...

Yes, that was just one year, and every other year Texas has been solidly in the Top 10. 

Great, but...

The other problem could be scheduling. 

The Big Ten has announced that they're going to nine conference games in the future. If/when the SEC expands, there's a chance they too will increase the number of conference contests they play each year.

What if the Pac-12 and other conferences expand again? What if they all start playing more conference games each year?

That leaves fewer non-conference games teams can schedule. What's more, programs are very careful about just how many tough opponents they will schedule out-of-conference.

Traditional rivalries won't be scrapped just so Texas can play a schedule strong enough to keep them in the running for a national title. 

Being a part of an automatic qualifying conference eliminates the possibility that the Longhorns may be left with a bunch of "scraps" for opponents throughout the later stages of the season—just when the BCS voters are paying the most attention.

The SEC has a ton to offer. However, what would be better: meeting a fellow SEC opponent for a shot at the national title, or meeting an SEC opponent in the national title game?

Texas could come into the Big Ten and compete right away. Win the conference, and they could be playing for another crystal football.

Why These Odds:

So, if the Big Ten and Texas are such a legendary match, why are the odds so against it happening? 

I'll try to keep this brief.

For starters, the Longhorn Network and the Big Ten Network can't coexist. The Big Ten wouldn't go for that deal, and they absolutely would not go for anything other than an equal split of revenue.  

On top of that, Texas isn't seeing the big picture right now. They've got a sweet deal, and they're working on making it even better. That's about as far as they can see right now.

The football landscape is changing, and some very good programs are having to make some very tough decisions. 

Can Texas really stand alone? Can anyone?

I'd bet they're willing to find out, fully believing they can—if anyone can. 

They don't really want to join the Big Ten. They don't really want any conference.

Lastly, it makes no geographical sense at all. Texas would have to travel across at least three states just to reach their closest conference competitor. Against teams like Penn State, they'd have to travel halfway across the country.

Sure, TCU joined the Big East, but that was TCU. They were in desperate need of an AQ conference, and the Big East was the only one willing to extend an offer. 

Texas isn't desperate for a home; they don't have to jump through those kinds of hoops.

On the one hand, Texas looks like a great fit, but on the other, they don't really fit at all.

Kansas: 30-1

Why the Big Ten Might Want the Jayhawks:

As mentioned before, if the Big Ten is looking to break into new markets, there could be far worse than Kansas City. Kansas also brings a perennial Final Four basketball program.

However, their football program has been down the last couple of years (finishing 3-9 in 2010) and were never really a national power to begin with. They don't have the draw Nebraska (or Penn State before them) had.

As far as Kansas City goes, would that really be breaking into a new market?

I mean, the Big Ten Network can be found nationwide on any number of vehicles. Along with that, Kansas City is close enough to Iowa and Nebraska to already be covered, so-to-speak.

Why the Jayhawks Might Want the Big Ten:

All the previous arguments still apply. Kansas has occasionally been a threat for the conference title game, but rarely and not often enough to make demands of the rest of the conference, and the stability of the Big Ten has to be awfully inviting right now.

Why These Odds:

Once again, Kansas just doesn't bring enough to the table. Pretend for a moment that the ultimate end-game of all of this is going to be four 16-team conferences—just pretend.

If that ends up being the case, does the Big Ten want its current members, plus four teams that only slightly increase viewership and do nothing for competitive edge? 

Or do they want four programs that will add to the financial stability of the conference and give the Big Ten an even better opportunity to have representation in the national title discussion?

Kansas doesn't fit either bill, so what makes them a slightly better fit than those who came before them?

They have a better market than the others (except Texas A&M) and aren't being wooed by the SEC or Pac-12. If the Big Ten just needs someone with a regional feel to fill out their roster, Kansas would obviously be an OK fit, and their basketball program would be a great addition to the conference.

The Big Ten doesn't have to get desperate, though. The SEC may be the fan and media darling, and they may be the front-runner for every national title until they're knocked off. 

Still, the Big Ten is strong and competitive. They can afford to throw their best shot at bigger football fish. 

Texas Tech: 25-1

Why the Big Ten Might Want the Red Raiders:

The Red Raiders could offer a pipeline into the coveted Texas market. The Lone Star state is home to more than 25 million people and is the largest state in terms of area in the continental U.S. 

While the Big Ten Network can be seen nationwide, people have to have a reason to want to tune in.  Red Raider fans might be willing to look up the channel to catch a glimpse of their upcoming opponents, giving the network a larger share than it already has.

Other member institutions would love the opportunity to sneak into the very lucrative recruiting pool Texas has to offer.

That's really the sum of it. Texas Tech hasn't had a team strong enough to command a national audience, but the other perks might be enough to sway some voters.

Why the Red Raiders Might Want the Big Ten:

I really don't think the SEC is going to come calling unless they were part of a package deal with someone bigger. Perhaps if they were lumped in with Texas A&M, I'm sure the Red Raiders would jump at the chance to move east.

That doesn't appear to be anywhere in the thought processes of either the SEC or Texas A&M, though. The Red Raiders have little hope of piggy-backing with the Aggies to the SEC (which isn't happening now), and if Oklahoma were to go east, they'd likely take Oklahoma State with them before they'd take Texas Tech.

So if the Big 12 really were to collapse, who would the Red Raiders turn to for help? 

While it may not make sense geographically, Texas Tech would be more than happy to find a home in a conference as stable and rich as the Big Ten, rather than be left looking for a chair when the music stops.

Why These Odds:

Texas Tech doesn't really want the Big Ten, but they'd take them if better options weren't available. 

The Big Ten doesn't really want Texas Tech, but if they were the only in-road to the Texas market, they'd take them and let their marketing gurus work their magic.

The Red Raiders don't have nearly the allure of Texas or A&M, but there's virtually no chance either of them will be available to the Big Ten. 

They're not as competitive as Kansas or K-State, but don't underestimate the draw of the Texas market. St. Louis and Kansas City are nice, but the Big Ten already brushes those markets and doesn't stand to gain as much with them as they would in Texas. 

On top of all of that, Texas Tech might hold out just long enough—in hopes of somehow landing in a place where they can preserve their best rivalries—that the Big Ten will move on before the Raiders come back around looking for a home.

There's a chance that they could come north to play ball, but it's not that likely. It would be a settlement for both parties, not a top choice.

Oklahoma State: 10-1

Why the Big Ten Might Want the Cowboys:

On their own, they're not a bad grab. The Cowboys have not won fewer than nine games since 2007 and have had winning records the last five years. 

The Big 12 may or may not have been as competitive as the Big Ten, but that's a very nice streak nonetheless. The Cowboys could immediately make the Big Ten even stronger on the field.

Their market may not be as good as others on the list, but the conference network can get some mileage out of their initial inclusion and can could hope to skim into the market just to their south for the long term. 

Partner this team with Oklahoma, and suddenly the Cowboys become a win-win situation.

Why the Cowboys Might Want the Big Ten:

No Texas, no Longhorn Network and no more squabbling over whom deserves what. The drama can end, and the Cowboys can just get back to playing good football.

Nebraska's inclusion helps a little. No, the Cowboys didn't have the same kind of rivalry with the Cornhuskers that the Sooners have had, but it would still feel a little like home to have a familiar face on the docket.

If Oklahoma came along for the ride (or, more likely, were the real reason for the move in the first place), then it all becomes the better.

Why These Odds:

On their own, Oklahoma State is a decent draw, but they're not great.

Sure, they're competitive, and that's one of the criteria the Big Ten would want. However, they're not a huge TV market unless the BTN believes they can push south.

I haven't even begun to touch on the academic requirements the Big Ten typically pulls out of the hat when making these decisions. I haven't done so because, at some point, it's going to have to go by the wayside. Nebraska is not a member of the AAU, breaking the Big Ten's record of having all member institutions.

Oklahoma State isn't the big fish the Big Ten wants, but they're a nice grab. Keep in mind that anywhere Oklahoma goes, they'll likely demand that the Cowboys come too. The Big Ten would gladly roll out the carpet for the Cowboys if it meant getting the Sooners. 

Still, these odds have to be figured on the team by itself. By itself, it's a good grab, but not a great one and still doesn't quite meet the Big Ten's goals. 

It comes a lot closer than some of the others, though, and could very well be available.

Baylor: 5-1

Why the Big Ten Might Want the Bears:

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Baylor is a Texas school and all that implies; same market as the other Texas schools and same recruiting pipeline. 

Their 7-6 record in 2010 aside, Baylor doesn't have a winning tradition, and they certainly don't bring a strong national appeal. They're not going to make anyone sit up and say, "Wow, that's a great fit for the Big Ten."

No, the real draw for the Big Ten might be that they can get the Texas connection "cheap," so-to-speak.

Baylor won't come in making demands as Texas might, and they wouldn't require a tag-along like Oklahoma might.

If (and I stress if) Notre Dame is still a high priority for Jim Delany and the Big Ten, they don't want to burn expansion chips bringing two teams on board simply because they don't want to be in different conferences. 

Baylor won't come in and upset anyone, and they won't require anything other than an invite to be a part of the league. Meanwhile, they'll provide in-roads to a new area, and they could at least compete with the second-tier teams in the league.

Why the Bears Might Want the Big Ten:

They've got to be more than a little tired of being the little brother to all of the other Texas schools.  Even TCU has made a name for themselves elsewhere, and Baylor will likely never get out of the shadows of Texas, A&M and Tech. 

The SEC doesn't need them if they grab hold of the Aggies, and the Pac-12 will likely try to land the Longhorns, if possible. With rumors swirling last year about the Big Ten possibly going after Rutgers or Syracuse, it's been made clear that the conference is OK with taking a semi-competitive team if that means getting into a new market.

Joining the Big Ten would get Baylor away from their "bigger" brothers and allow them to make a name for themselves on their own. 

The Texas legislature shouldn't be so uptight about the deal. Wouldn't it be better for the state to have their teams representing the state in two or three conferences, rather than just one?

Why These Odds:

It's all about the ease of the move. 

Texas sounds set on Independence over joining a conference outside of the Big 12. The Aggies have already approached the SEC, so they're not likely to switch allegiance so soon. The Red Raiders might shop themselves to the Big Ten, but are they really any better than the Bears?

Baylor accomplishes the conference's desire to break into a new market. They do so without some of the baggage others might bring to the table—they just don't bring the kind of competitive advantage teams like the Sooners would add.

Baylor would want the Big Ten, and the Big Ten would be willing to take Baylor (I would think). This would be an easy grab to get into Texas.

Oklahoma: 3-1

Why the Big Ten Might Want the Sooners:

Oklahoma Sooners and championships—the names just go so well together. 

One of the main goals of the Big Ten in expansion times is to close the gap on the SEC in terms of competition on the field. 

Oklahoma provides a winning tradition, a long and rich history, and a national appeal. They open up a new market and provide in-roads to great recruiting. 

They are another "home run" type of grab.

Why the Sooners Might want the Big Ten:

Bob Stoops played and started his coaching career as an assistant at Iowa. He knows the Big Ten and wouldn't have the least bit of culture shock taking his team into Ann Arbor or Columbus to play. 

Oklahoma wasn't too happy with the whole Longhorn Network deal either and suddenly feel kind of like a heel for sticking around when the Pac-10 came calling a year ago.

Sure the (now) Pac-12 will certainly call again, but the Big Ten might be a better fit for the team from Norman. Their rivalry with Nebraska could resume once more, and Stoops could get a kick out of beating his alma mater. 

Why These Odds:

Oklahoma would be the near-perfect grab for the Big Ten. Sure, they're not geographically in the same region as the rest of the Big Ten teams, but when we're talking about Oklahoma, who cares? 

The problem is, Stoops doesn't call the shots in such things. Would the University be as excited to head north as Stoops might be?

Considering it would put Nebraska back on the schedule without having to burn a non-conference game, yes. They just might be.

However, don't think that the SEC and Pac-12 won't also come calling, and they'll each present some strong arguments. Just how strong is the pull of playing Nebraska, Ohio State and Michigan versus Florida, LSU and Alabama?

Missouri: 2-1

Why the Big Ten Might Want the Tigers:

The only question surrounding the Tigers is whether or not they can convince the SEC to take them. 

Heck, right now, they'd probably join the Big East if they thought they had a chance of getting an invite.

Missouri has a solid fanbase and a decent football program. They already have a yearly rivalry with Illinois and would resume one with Iowa in a heartbeat. Nebraska would make another logical rival for the Tigers, who would fit in perfectly with the Big Ten ilk. 

They may not open up markets like New York or Texas, but St. Louis isn't bad, and the Big Ten can continue their domination of the Midwest.

Why the Tigers Might Want the Big Ten:

No doubt, there are probably some hard feelings amongst some of the school officials that the Big Ten overlooked them a year ago when they chose Nebraska rather than Mizzou. The Tigers practically begged the Big Ten to take them in.

Missouri wouldn't have to burn a non-conference game to play Illinois and would get to face former Big 12 mate Nebraska. 

All of the old arguments about revenue sharing and exposure still apply. The Big Ten is geographically a more natural fit for Missouri than any other conference besides the Big 12. 

It just makes good sense.

Why These Odds:

This is the safest route to go.

You want a team that will compete right away and into the future? Missouri may not stack up well against Ohio State or Michigan every year, but they'll hold their own against Illinois, Iowa and the rest.

You want to expand the conference footprint? They do that better than Pitt or Notre Dame, even if they don't do it as well as Texas or Oklahoma. 

If the Big Ten wants to grow without hassle and bring in a program that would fit easily into the conference mold, Missouri is the logical choice.