Cincinnati Reds: Flawed and in Need of a Bold Move‏

The 2011 Cincinnati Reds have confused me more than any team I have ever followed.

I am a lifelong Indians diehard and have been following the Reds with increased regularity the last six seasons, since I moved to the Queen City area.

Last year, the Reds won the National League's Central Division and went to the playoffs for the first time since 1995.

I viewed the 2010 Reds as a great regular season team that lacked the ace(s) needed to win in the playoffs. Roy Halladay threw a no-hitter in Game 1 of the 2010 NLDS as I watched from the beach in Hawaii.

That single performance exemplified everything I had been saying during the 2010 season. The Reds lacked an ace.

Fast forward to the 2011 season, and the Reds have done nothing to fix that problem. I will touch on that issue in a bit.

With bringing back a young, talented team that won the division, I expected the Reds to win or at least come close to winning the NL Central again.

I figured they would get bounced in the NLDS again, but that is beside the point.

Currently, the Reds are nine and a half games out of first place. They just finished a six-game road trip against the Astros and Cubs (two of the worst teams in baseball) and went 2-4.

They lost three of those games by one run. That was preceded by a three-game sweep of the defending World Series champion and current NL West-leading San Francisco Giants.

Naturally, what preceded that was getting swept at home in a four-game series to a mediocre New York Mets team that was trading away some of its best players. That four-game sweep at home to the Mets was the first of its nature. Enough said.

Here is the weird part. The Reds haven't been riddled with injuries to star players this year. Their numbers don't equate to their record.

For example, the Reds run differential is a plus-35. To put that in perspective, that is the seventh-best run differential in baseball.

Of the six teams ahead of the Reds, the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers and Atlanta Braves would all make the playoffs if the season ended today.

Only the St. Louis Cardinals would miss the playoffs, but they are only three games out of first place. The Reds are nine and a half games out of first place. They are four games under .500, for crying out loud!

To drive home the importance of run differential as an indicator of success, only two teams have a positive run differential coupled with a losing record. One is the Reds, and the other is the previously-mentioned middling Mets, who have a plus-10 differential at only one game under .500.

On the flip side, only two teams with winning records have a negative run differential—the San Francisco Giants and the Detroit Tigers.

To be fair, the Giants only have a minus-seven differential, and their team is built completely around pitching. The Tigers have a paltry minus-six differential themselves. Both of those teams could be back in the black in the near future.

So what is causing the Reds' record to buck the statistical odds of losing more often then winning while simultaneously outscoring their opponents over the course of a season?

Good question! I am glad you asked.

First, let me tell you what isn't the problem. The hitting is fine.

The Reds have scored the second-most runs in the National League. Hell, they have scored more runs than every American League team except three (Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers), and they don't get to use a DH on a regular basis.

I could nitpick on some players not hitting in the clutch, but it would be just that: nitpicking.

The bullpen has been fine as well. Only one relief pitcher has an ERA over 3.72 while having pitched more than five games out of the pen all year.

That guy is Jordan Smith.

Last year he showed he was at least capable of being a serviceable bullpen arm. Regardless, show me another bullpen that falls into that same category. Every year, each team has at least one dud in the bullpen.

The issue this year has been the starting pitching.

More specifically, the lack of an ace. Yes, Cueto leads the NL in ERA. That is a huge positive.

However, he is just one part of a five-man rotation. Furthermore, how many people really believe Cueto is a true ace and not just a solid No. 2 man?

Mike Leake and Homer Bailey have put up solid numbers for  No. 4 and No. 5 starters respectively.

However, they are currently the second- and third-best pitchers on the team. Major red flag here, people.

Further complicating matters are the pitchers who have made the bulk of the starts for those two remaining rotation spots.

Bronson Arroyo, throughout his previous five years with the Reds, had an average season of 14-12, an ERA of 4.00 and work-horsed 200-plus innings.

That is solid No. 4 starter material. On a sub-par team, he could even masquerade as a No. 3 starter. This year, he has stumbled through a 7-9 record while sporting a 5.48 ERA. Yuck.

Travis Wood had a solid debut last year as a promising southpaw starter. He went 5-4 with a 3.51 ERA.

This year, he regressed to a 5-5 record with a 5.11 ERA and had to be sent down to the minor leagues to work on his mechanics.

Edinson Volquez went 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA in his debut season with the Reds.

In the two injury-shortened seasons that followed (he had Tommy John surgery that cut the first year short and the second season got a late start from said surgery) he posted nearly identical and mediocre seasons of 4-2 with a 4.35 ERA followed by 4-3 with a 4.31 ERA.

After his injury issues were firmly in the past, many fans hoped he would return to his Reds-debut season numbers.

Instead, he was an abomination. He somehow managed a winning record of 5-4 while puking out an ERA of 5.93.

He has been sent to the minors multiple times this year to work on his mechanics. This season, he has been more wild than a Hollywood socialite.

Let's review the in-house options for 2012.

You have guys like Dontrelle Willis, Sam LeCure, Matt Maloney and Daryl Thompson, who all might be able to step in and be a No. 5 starter. Leake, Wood, Arroyo and Bailey could all be No. 4 type of guys.

If Volquez can get his control under command, he could certainly be a No. 3 man in the rotation. Cueto best fits as a No. 2 starter in the rotation.

There is a glaring hole for a staff ace.

One guy I haven't mentioned that has legit ace potential is Aroldis Chapman.

An ace should strike fear into the hearts of opposing team's hitters. Chapman came over from Cuba as a starter, and he certainly has the best stuff of anyone on the Reds.

The Reds need to dedicate their time and effort into turning Chapman into a bona fide staff ace. If he fails, they can always put him back in the pen as an ultra-expensive, left-handed set-up man.

Successfully converting Chapman into an ace is no sure thing. With that said, I propose the Reds make the following Godfather offer: Yonder Alonso, either Devin Mesoraco/Yasmani Grandal, Homer Bailey and Travis Wood to the Seattle Mariners for Felix Hernandez.

Why do the Reds make this deal? Quite simple.

Yonder is blocked at first base by Joey Votto. As many people can tell, he has no business playing left field. He became trade bait the moment the Reds drafted him, with Votto already at first base.

Mesoraco and Grandal are superfluous. The Reds certainly don't need both long-term. Trading one brings no harm, as the other is still the long-term solution at catcher. The only difference is that if Grandal is traded, Mesoraco should step in as the starting catcher for the Reds next year, while if Mesoraco is the one traded the Reds will have to bring back Ramon Hernandez for another year until Grandal is ready. Hanigan would be the backup in either scenario.

Bailey and Wood are two guys who could turn into solid major league starters, but the odds they ever turn into aces that will haunt opponents are slim to none.

In return, the Reds get a guy in King Felix who is a legit staff ace. With him at the top of the rotation, the Reds can trot out King Felix, Cueto, Arroyo, Leake and Volquez/Chapman.

Suddenly the rotation has some sizzle.

Everyone fits into their proper slot, and it gets downright scary if Chapman or Volquez can grasp their potential. Even if both flame out as starters, Chapman can go back to the pen and the Reds have a multitude of options to plug into the fifth starter role.

The Reds need to make this move this offseason because their window to compete for a championship runs out the second Votto's contract expires.

Realistically, they can't win a ring unless they trade for an ace or Chapman blossoms into one pronto.

Why do the Mariners make this deal?

They are in contention for going down as the worst-hitting team in terms of batting average in the DH era in the American League.

Read that sentence again.

To make matters worse, they don't have a flock of young hitting prospects on the horizon to turn their fortunes around.

In the first round of the 2011 MLB Amateur Draft, they even took yet another pitcher in Danny Hultzen from Virginia.

They are hitting .225 as a team this year. That is not a misprint.

The only two players on the roster that can hit at a decent rate are rookie second baseman Dustin Ackley and aging right fielder Ichiro Suzuki.

Realistically, the Mariners can't become a decent-hitting team for another five years minimum, unless they start shelling out serious dollars in free agency.

By that time, King Felix would be long gone. They need to trade him now so that ace-in-waiting Michael Pineda has some hitting around him before he is set to leave as well.

Yonder Alonso could step in at first base from day one. Even if Mariners fans want to claim they have a "first baseman of the future" in Justin Smoak, they can put Yonder at DH.

It isn't like they have Edgar Martinez in his prime currently manning the DH spot for the team.

Mesoraco could step into the starting catcher role from day one as well. If the Mariners preferred Grandal they would simply have to remain patient for an extra year.

Either way, they would be landing a stud hitting prospect at catcher. With those two guys plus Ackley and Ichiro, the Mariners may not be a good hitting team, but they certainly would be much improved.

Bailey and Wood help fill out the rotation around Pineda at a cost-effective price. Pitching in Safeco Field will certainly help their numbers as well.

This deal compares favorably to the recent Ubaldo Jimenez blockbuster. You are simply substituting two stud hitting prospects for two stud pitching prospects—which is what the Mariners need anyway.

Hitting prospects have more value as a whole, given their safer nature, so this should equate to enough value for King Felix—since he is better than Ubaldo. Honestly I can't see why either team shouldn't make this trade.

The Reds' 25-man roster could look like the following for 2012 if this trade goes down.

Starters

1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips (re-signed this offseason)
SS Zack Cozart
3B Scott Rolen
RF Jay Bruce
CF Drew Stubbs
LF Chris Heisey/Fred Lewis (resigned this offseason)
C Ramon Hernandez or Devin Mesoraco depending on who gets traded to the Mariners

Bench

Corner Infield Todd Frazier
Middle Infield Paul Janish
C Ryan Hanigan
OF Chris Heisey/Fred Lewis (whoever didn't start that day)
OF Veteran Free Agent TBD

Rotation

#1 Felix Hernandez
#2 Johnny Cueto
#3 Bronson Arroyo
#4 Mike Leake
#5 Edinson Volquez

Bullpen

Closer Francisco Cordero (re-signed this offseason)
RH Nick Masset
RH Logan Ondrusek
RH Sam LeCure
RH Jose Arredondo (re-signed this offseason)
LH Bill Bray
LH Daniel Ray Herrera

There are still plenty of position players and pitchers at AAA Louisville who are there for depth if injuries crop up.

The Reds need to realize they have a short window of time to make history and make a bold move.

Reds and Mariners fans, feel free to discuss.