FJM'd of the Week: "Naysayers Are Wrong on Ryan Howard"

Recently 97.5 The Fanatic's Mike Missanelli has been defending Ryan Howard ardently on his radio show. Now he's written about it. Even though there's some fluff at the beginning, the heart of the article deserves some Fire Joe Morgan treatment.

Cutting to the good meat and potatoes.....

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"I confess to being a simpleton, but to me, bottom-line numbers have always measured a player's worth. In the five seasons previous to this one, Howard has averaged 46 home runs and 136 runs batted in. That average includes last season, when he missed 19 games and finished with only 31 homers and 108 RBIs, which means his average total might have been closer to 50 homers and 140-plus RBIs. Here is a quick list of players with the most seasons of at least 45 home runs and at least 135 RBIs: Babe Ruth (eight times), then Sammy Sosa, Lou Gehrig and Ryan Howard (four times each). I don't even have to quantify Sosa. And oh, by the way, only Ruth and Howard were able to do that for five seasons in a row. That's Babe Ruth we're talking about."

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At least he admits he's a simpleton. I know he's generally very knowledgeable, and is at least aware of some sabermetrics concepts, so his dependence on a statistic like RBI and past performance from too long ago is surprising to me.

Yes, Howard's year-to-year averages are high, but he is no longer a 46-home run hitter. He no longer has the power of his 2006-self, or even 2009. His current isolated slugging percentage of .236 is the second lowest of his career (his lowest being in 2010), and is a far cry from 2006's ridiculous .346.

Wonder how many others would make it on that arbitrary cutoff list as well if they had the same amount of opportunities that Ryan Howard has had over the years. Ken Griffey Jr. was a single RBI away from this cutoff. And the "only Ruth and Howard were able to do that for five seasons in a row" is just a flat out mistake, as Howard did it just four seasons in a row, the same amount as Sammy Sosa.

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"In the last two weeks, I have received communiques and have spoken to folks who insist they would rather have the following players than Howard: Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira, and Miguel Cabrera. I figured at least one of those guys could boast a five-year chunk of numbers that would top Howard. But I couldn't find one."

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Again, five years in the past does not make him better than anyone in that group right now. It would be similar as pointing to Rollins' 30 homer season in 2007 as a way to judge him as a player currently. Everyone knows he's no longer that same player, either. Howard is no longer a 45-home run player.

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"Fielder has averaged 38 homers and 105 RBIs; Teixiera 34 and 114; Cabrera 34 and 118; Votto 29 and 94 (body of work only three seasons); and Gonzalez 32 and 100. For those of you hiding behind the "Well, Adrian Gonzalez played in a bigger ballpark in San Diego," I suggest that a bigger ballpark also yields more doubles and doubles also drive in runs."

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There are more to players than just home runs and RBI. What he also does not take into account is the many more opportunities Howard has had to drive runs in.

Since 2006, Howard has had 2,802 runners on base with him at the plate. The next closest is Teixeira at 2,685 with Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez, and Prince Fielder hovering between 2,507 and 2,569.

Votto is far behind everyone. His 1,394 runners on base is over half that of Howard's. Votto has yet to have a season with over 400 runners on base, while Howard has not had a season with fewer than 450.

His suggestion of San Diego allowing more doubles is flat out wrong. Sadly, his readers won't bother to check the numbers and assume his word is gospel. All you have to check is the park factors on ESPN.

The cavernous Petco Park have consistently suppressed doubles just as much as home runs...by roughly 15 to 30 percent.

Here are averages of his group of first basemen since 2010. I don't want you to be swayed by each player's name, so I am withholding that, even though you could probably still guess who is who.

	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA	wRC+
Player A	.323	.427	.563	.241	.426	166
Player B	.321	.401	.532	.211	.394	151
Player C	.266	.348	.498	.232	.361	123
Player D	.277	.407	.508	.231	.393	148
Player E	.254	.357	.499	.244	.371	131
Player F	.322	.422	.593	.270	.423	168

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"It is a fascinating phenomenon, this Ryan Howard angst, deserving deeper analysis. So here goes:

The strikeouts. Though outs are outs in any form, strikeouts bother fans more than most, and Howard does this a ton. He has had two seasons of 199 whiffs and it is especially maddening to fans the way he can't make better contact against left-handed pitchers.

If he would only cut down on his swing. If he would only punch the ball the other way sometimes, especially when the opposition puts on the shift.

Fans would like to see Howard's batting average rise a little more, and I get that. But this just in: Power hitters strike out. They swing hard, which sometimes makes them pull off the ball. But they swing hard in order to generate run production. Take the gift of 45-135 and shut the heck up."

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I wouldn't want Howard to reduce strikeouts at the expense of power, but it is these same strikeouts that separate him from the top tier first basemen. More strikeouts means less balls in play thus reducing average and on-base percentage.

The best guys, such as the ones he listed earlier, don't strike out nearly as much as Howard. Of the top 18 power hitters (by isolated slugging) since 2010, only four strike out over 20 percent, so this is not simply something that all power hitters do. Howard's 25.4 percent is the second worst of the group, behind only MarK Reynolds.

And I cannot take the gift of 45 homers with those strikeouts because he is no longer a 45-home run hitter.

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"That strikeout. Some fans still can't sleep at night, haunted by the vision of Howard's standing there and taking strike three against the Giants' Brian Wilson to end the NLCS. But more than that, the perception is that Howard, in his comments afterward, didn't hurt like we did.

"Would it have made us feel better to see Howard flog himself in Rittenhouse Square? Or walk around town like Hester Prynne, wearing a scarlet backward "K" on his jersey?"

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I do not really care as much about that strikeout as most do. Chalk it up to variance. A single at-bat does not define a player. And I'm sure he was very disappointed in himself.  

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"Clutchness. The notion that Ryan Howard isn't clutch is a blatant falsehood. Sabermaticians have besieged my e-mail account with factoids about Howard's declining production. They point out that he has had the most opportunities with runners in scoring position of any player in the majors this year and hasn't delivered to the extent he should."

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No counters to his declining skills and the fact that he gets more RBI opportunities than anyone in baseball.

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"All right, I'm ready to go geek-to-geek. Here's what I know: In Howard's career, he has four game-ending home runs, 105 go-ahead home runs, and 31 game-tying home runs. He has played exactly 162 games in his career in September and October, where he is hitting .314 with 52 homers and 141 RBIs, with an OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of 1.100."

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*104 go-ahead home runs. There is more than just home runs when judging "clutch" players. In late and close situations, Howard has produced .269/.390/.531 with a 100 tOPS+, meaning he did exactly the same in this situation as he usually does.

In high-leverage situations his 114 tOPS+ (14 percent better than what he usually does) is much better, but what you must consider is that most of those high-leverage situations come with runners on base. With runners on base, teams no longer employ a shift, making it easier for Howard to get a hit than with no one on base.

Yes, Howard's been better in September and October, but games in April still count the same in the standings as games in September and October. In the playoffs he's been much more typical, hitting .278/.382/.517. However, his .417 batting average of balls in play in the playoffs is almost 80 points higher than his career norm, suggesting he's had some good luck.

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"And this notion that he isn't as clutch as his teammate Chase Utley just isn't true. Howard has a .278 postseason batting average to Utley's .243. Chase has 10 home runs (five against the Yankees in the 2009 World Series) and 24 RBIs to Howard's seven homers and 27 RBIs.

"Here are more telling numbers: Howard's OPS when the margin of score is greater than four runs is 0.817, but it jumps up to 0.965 in a tie game and to 0.995 if the margin is one run. That means he's more productive in closer games.

"Conversely, Utley has an OPS of 0.930 when the margin is four or more and that drops to 0.846 in a tie game and to 0.859 if the margin is one run. You make the call.

"And oh, by the way, this year Howard has put up these colossal RBI numbers despite the absence, for most of the season, of legitimate three- and five-hole hitters. He's hitting over .400 since Hunter Pence joined the lineup.""

Chase Utley's postseason line is .243/.383/.480. Opposite of Howard, his .250 batting average of balls in play is almost 70 points LOWER than his career norm, suggesting he's had some bad luck. Tack on 10 stolen bases and his wOBA (.384) is higher than Howard's (.374).  

In the regular season, Howard's numbers do suggest he's slightly better than Utley in the closer game situations, but he's not close to the overall player Utley is and has been. 49.9 fWAR compared to 22.6.  

This season, Phillies three-hole hitters have gone .266/.349/.391, not too bad. Phillies' five-hole hitters have gone .245/.320/.404. While that may not look good, it is still just 4 percent worse than league average for five-hole hitters.

I guess he didn't get the memo that protection is primarily a myth. Google it. And making judgements on such a small sample size is foolish.

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"The money. It always comes down to money, doesn't it? Fans expect more out of Howard because he makes $20 million a year (which will soon jump to $25 million).

"I hate to break it to you, but that's the going rate these days for power hitters. The Phillies correctly read the landscape when they signed Howard to that big deal. Wait until this offseason to see what Fielder is going to get and think about this: It's not your money, so why do you care how much Howard makes?

"Like Schmidt, Howard has become a victim of his own success. When guys hit a lot of home runs, we want to see home runs all the time. And when they don't deliver all the time, it makes us crazy.

"Know this: There is no such thing as the perfect player. Howard might not be Albert Pujols, but what you got isn't half bad.

"Now get out of here, you bunch of knuckleheads."

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That's the going rate for top notch power hitters, not second-tier ones who have below average defense and a skill set that will break down quicker. Prince will get paid more because he's better and younger.

And you're right; it isn't my money, but for the $10 million-$15 million extra per year he's getting than he should, it could be used on other pieces, such as re-signing Cole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins. Sagged with such a massive contract for a player getting worse each year limits what they can do.   

Looking at most of the comments, I agree there are a lot of knuckleheads. You are just targeting the wrong group.