UEFA Champions League: Manchester United vs. Barcelona an Unpredictable Affair

In preparation for what promises to be another exciting Champions’ League Final, pundits throughout the globe have worked tirelessly to identify the key factors which should influence the outcome of Saturday’s contest.

Will the Ryan Giggs scandal distract United? Can the Fergie conjure some strategy to control Messi? Will Barcelona ultimately dominate as they did in the 2009 CL Final? Who will end up scoring the game-winning goal?

As sportswriters, it is our responsibility to thoroughly research the answers to these questions before presenting our findings to the general public. 

Though we do our best with information available to us, how often are we actually right?

Let’s use the 2010 World Cup as an example. Who could have possibly predicted that Diego Forlán, a horrible failure at Manchester United, would lead Uruguay to the semi-finals while collecting the Golden Ball as the tournament’s top player.

Who could have foreseen Holland dominating a characteristically invincible Brazilian side in the tournament quarterfinals?

How many people would have expected the same Dutch team to fare so poorly against Spain?

When comparing the results with our pre-match expectations, it is apparent that despite our vast knowledge of the sport, we actually know very little. 

How could we? Each match is an independent event influenced by an immeasurable number of variables. 

While quality sides such as United and Barcelona are talented enough to overcome an array of adverse situations such as playing more games than less successful league sides, facing tremendous pressure to win almost every contest, and even simply playing away from home, they cannot compensate for all possible events.

En route to capturing a record-breaking 19^th league title, Manchester United finished with a nearly perfect home record of 18 wins and only a single draw. 

The single blemish to the otherwise pristine record came in an October contest against recently promoted West Bromwich Albion.

Leading 2-0 at halftime, United was cruising to a comfortable victory over the lowly Baggies when stalwart defender Patrice Evra helped the visitors along by scoring an own goal. Supremely reliable keeper Edwin Van der Sar quickly followed up Evra’s mistake by inexplicably mishandled a tame cross directly into the path of a surprised Somen Tchoyi who tapped home from short range.

Van der Sar? Evra? Since when have either of them given away cheap goals?

Though this draw proved to be quite embarrassing, Barcelona endured an even more humiliating result upon losing to recently promoted Hercules 2-0 at the Nou Camp in the opening home match of the season. 

Despite possessing the ball for over 75 percent of the match and generating eight more shots than a team which was eventually relegated, a Barca side featuring the much heralded quartet of Lio Messi, Andrés Iniesta, Xavi and David Villa uncharacteristically could not score.   

While both teams have undeniably demonstrated their quality by advancing to the Champions’ League Final in addition to winning their respective leagues, their head-scratching results to such lowly teams reveal that no football match is ever truly predictable.

In 2009, a loaded United team featuring Cristiano Ronaldo, Wayne Rooney, and Carlos Tevez was expected to simply outplay a Barcelona side which just barely squeaked past Chelsea into the finals. 

Naturally, we were all flabbergasted when Barcelona not only won, but completely dominated play for the majority of the match.

What’s in store this year?

Heck, for all we know, the second half might end with the score deadlocked 2-2 with Evra and Michael Carrick scoring for United and Puyol and Mascherano scoring Barca.

Or this match might even play out like the 2010 College Football BCS National Championship game, which was pegged as a contest between star University of Texas quarterback Colt McCoy and Alabama Heisman trophy winning running back Mark Ingram. 

Having explored this storyline for weeks, pundits were shocked when McCoy was injured early in the first quarter and could not return to the game. 

In a brief series of events the much anticipated matchup was suddenly deemed moot, and bewildered television commentators and sportscasters scrambled to compile as much information as possible about the 18-year old kid now tasked with leading Texas, virtually unknown backup quarterback Garrett Gilbert.

What happens if Rooney, Messi or any of the other key figures are seriously injured? Has anyone even considered this possibility?

Instead of preparing a series of predictions for Saturday’s contest which would surely prove to be wrong, I will simply go ahead and admit that I have no idea what will happen in Saturday’s contest. 

In my advanced state of ignorance, I can only hope for both a United win and a thrilling Champions’ League Final worthy of a contest between these two legendary sides.