New York Knicks 2011 Offseason: Where We've Come From and Where We Go from Here
At the beginning of this past season, New York was buzzing with talk of Amare Stoudemire (STAT), Raymond Felton, Anthony Randolph and Timofey Mosgov turning a Knick team with Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari and Toney Douglas into true contenders. We didn’t really know what we had in Landry Fields and a troubled former No. 1 pick named Shawn Williams was the 15th man when Patrick Ewing Jr. was the last cut.
The season ended with the Knicks swept by the Celtics in the first round of playoffs with Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony joining Amare Stoudemire, Landry Fields and Shawn Williams in the starting lineup.
So, the 15th man and a second round pick were in our starting lineup.
This isn’t necessarily bad news, because it comes as the consequence of having two superstars and a top point guard.
It also is indicative of the low level of flexibility the Knicks have in moving forward.
Fact is, any Knicks fan (and Mike D’Antoni for that matter), after seven years without playoffs and, essentially, a lost decade under leadership of Scott Layden and Isaiah Thomas, would absolutely have signed up for 42 wins and a No. 6 seed if given the option at the beginning of the year.
Madison Square Garden has a positive vibe once again.
Now, the writing is on the wall for a lot of the roster—what the Knicks need to do in the offseason is clear, but by no means easy.
Untouchables (Stoudemire and Anthony, 2011 Salaries: $36.7 Million)
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Amare Stoudemire: Took the risk to join the Knicks before anyone else had come. NYC has taken to him and he has taken to NYC.
Carried the team until the trade deadline. While not a classic post player (Carmelo Anthony has a better post game), he has developed a mid-range jump shot, blocks shots, provides leadership and, even while scoring less after Carmelo’s arrival, is still a second team all NBA choice. His 1.9 blocked shots per game (No. 7 in the NBA), is just evidence of his ridiculous athleticism.
Fact is, he needs to rebound more and play better positional defense. Pairing him with a defensive paint-clogging big man and developing some pick and roll chemistry with Billups could make him first-team all-NBA.
Carmelo Anthony: Carmelo is perhaps the best scorer in the league and a very good rebounder.
He showed in Game 2 against the Celtics (42 points, 17 rebounds, six assists) that he can put up LeBron-like numbers.
Anthony had 16 go-ahead field goals in the last two minutes of the games—most in the NBA. That is why they got him and he has proven to be everything as advertised—a superstar who can score, rebound and, when he wants, distribute and play defense.
If he just played with consistency on defense he would be without a doubt a first-team all-NBA selection every year.
Cheap Talent (2011 Salaries: $9.7 Million)
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Toney Douglas: Has worked hard and developed his game. Needs to add consistency to his game and he will be a key contributor for years. Ideal off-the-bench guard who can inject some offense and play great defense and handle the ball for small periods. Has gotten better after Chauncey arrived. Only costs $1.1 million in 2011 and has two years before he is a restricted free agent.
Landry Fields: Hit the rookie wall at around 50-60 games and isn’t as involved when the ball doesn’t move like it did before Carmelo arrived. Still, he went from being booed on draft day to arguably the No. 2 true rookie in the NBA (behind John Wall as Blake Griffin is a second year player). Showed that he can be a starting SG in the NBA. Needs to work on three-point shot all summer and taking people off the dribble to create his own shots when necessary. Only costs $789,000 next year as a second round pick, but is a free agent afterwards. Knicks should sign to long-term inexpensive contract, especially if he works on his game hard during the offseason.
Shawn Williams: Another guy not many thought of early in the year, but has turned out to be a hidden gem and another brilliant move by Donnie Walsh. Plays tough defense and is automatic from the corner three-point line. Perfect second unit guy. Free agent in summer of 2011, but Knicks should re-sign him to a three-year contract in the $2-3 million per year range to secure his bench presence. Despite all the positives, he should not be a major minutes guy if the Knicks want to be a championship contending team.
Bill Walker: Can shoot and is tough. Another good off-the-bench guy. Played more minutes since late March and averaged about nine points and five rebounds while hitting two three-point field goals per game. He had a $917,000 salary in 2011. Can be re-signed during next season for not much more, especially if CBA is more strict on salaries.
Ronny Turiaf: Great teammate and when healthy he gives the team a good spark. It is not clear that he is cheap when you take his $4.4 million 2011 player option and then adjust its effective cost for the fact that he only plays in about half the games and only can play about 20-25 minutes per game. That said, team is committed for 2011 and he is a good contributor.
So Where Are We?
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Before any major offseason decisions, the Knicks have two superstars in 'Melo and STAT, costing $36 million, and five role/bench players in Douglas, Fields, Williams, Walker and Turiaf costing about $9.7 million, (assuming Williams gets $2.5 million).
This total of $46 million represents almost 80 percent of the current $58 million salary cap and leaves only about $12 million to address your remaining needs and the remaining five to eight roster positions.
This is the reason that the most important personnel decision may be signing Donnie Walsh to an extension. He has done a masterful job and is one of the few GMs who can work this group into a contending team with solid decisions.
He has made some good decisions (drafting Gallo and Fields, signing Mosgov and Williams, purging the roster and gaining cap flexibility) and some not so good (drafting Jordan Hill, trading away too much in Tracey McGrady deal, overpaying for Carmelo).
Yes, I include the Carmelo Anthony deal here because although the owner was involved so was Donnie and he is the President and therefore he is accountable.
Overall, I would give Donnie Walsh an A- and want to see him complete the job.
Critical Needs and Key Decisions: Chauncey Billups
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Chauncey Billups’ $14 million 2011 option
Billups still has enough gas left in the tank and can still hit clutch shots and run a team. He has complete respect of every player in the locker room and around the league, and will serve as an important mentor to Toney Douglas and leader for entire team.
All the talk of Toney Douglas taking the starting point guard position is misguided—Toney Douglas is getting better but he is a combo guard and is not a starting guard on a top contender.
Billups’ true market value is less than option contract value but hard to assess given CBA uncertainties and Billups’ unwillingness to go to just any team.
The Knicks have already exercised this option but, in my opinion, the ideal scenario would have Billups signed to three-year, $8 million annual contract—that way, he gets the security of the longer term contract for total of $24 million and the team gets to spend the extra $4 to $6 million annual salary on a big man and then use the mid level exception on other needs.
That being said, now that the Knicks exercised the option, they have a top point guard for 2011/12 and keep some cap flexibility for 2012.
How Do You Get Big Man Help?
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The Knicks interior defense has been Swiss cheese this year and represents the most urgent need for the team.
How many times can you tolerate the J.J. Hicksons of the world looking like all pro players against the Knicks?
The answer is, a combination of measures and players.
Get as many cheap bodies as possible
The exercise of the Billups option takes the Knicks past last year's cap and leaves only the mid-level exception and draft picks/free agents and ways to improve the team.
None of the players discussed above are real trade assets, except perhaps Fields, therefore trades are unlikely to yield any real talent infusion.
First, they need to buy as many draft picks as possible to put out numerous bets and hope to get another Landry Fields.
They also need to leverage their expansive (and expensive) recruiting and senior management ranks to get another Mosgov-type signing.
Their No. 1 pick is critical, and another bust would be a big setback. Markieff Morris would be a nice piece, perhaps Kenneth Faried. Jimmer Fredette is not the answer at point guard for the Knicks.
How Do You Get Big Man Help? Free Agent Centers
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Use the Mid-Level Exception for a Big Man
The MLE starts at around $6 million per season and can be in total, $30-plus million.
The Knicks should be able to get a good big man for this kind of money, particularly if the new CBA is more restrictive.
However, they need to be wise as any mistake with this money could throw away the little flexibility they have.
Marc Gasol and Tyson Chandler are not coming for that money and the Knicks don’t have the trade assets to get them.
Samuel Dalembert and D’Andre Jordan are the realistic options and would fit in nicely with the existing lineup.
Emphasize a Defensive System with New Assistant Coach
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There has been talk of D’Antoni being on the hot seat and possibly being fired.
He is perhaps the best offensive mind in the NBA but, fact is, you need stops down the stretch to win games and put Carmelo, STAT and Billups in the position to hit game-winning shots.
Many say D’Antoni is stubborn and that his system can’t win in the playoffs.
He is stubborn, but his offensive system does not preclude the team from being a top defensive side.
It just needs an investment of time and coaching to set a solid defensive scheme.
A new defensive assistant coach (in the role Tom Thibodeau and Lawrence Frank played with the Celtics) will also be a good way to shake things up a bit in the coaching ranks without changing the head coach.
The Knicks offense will be one of the tops in the NBA. Just average level defense will make them a top team overall.
If there isn’t an improvement in this regard next year, I would fire D’Antoni and pay Doc Rivers $10-plus million per year to come to NYC.
Conclusion
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The Knicks have a lot less flexibility than people think. It is going to take some shrewd maneuvering to get them into contention to win the Eastern Conference.
There is no more time to waste waiting for future free agents or trades that are very unlikely to happen (Dwight Howard, Deron Williams, Chris Paul).
Dolan should give Donnie Walsh full control to finish the job.
The window with STAT and Carmelo in their prime is shorter than you think, and we can't lose any more time.
