NBA Playoffs 2011: Chicago Bulls Season Sweep of Miami Heat Really Matter?

The Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat have reached the point where it seems they've been predestined to meet since the preseason: the Eastern Conference Finals. The story lines are prevalent, from the spurning of all three of the big three to the season sweep the Bulls enjoyed,  which culminated with at least some Miami Heat in tears. 

The general regard now given to that season sweep is that it matters little to none. That supposition denies a certain amount of history. According to basketball-reference, since the merger the team that won the season series and holds home-court advantage has won 78.2 percent of the time in the second round or later.

Compare that to teams that lost the season series but had the home-court advantage and it's only 68.3 percent of the time. A similar disparity exists when the team has the won the season series (for obvious reasons—same numbers but flipped around). Winning the season series increases the chances of winning the postseason series by about 10 percent. 

Does this mean that the Bulls will win the series? No, of course not. Many will make the spurious comment that "That doesn't mean everything." I'm not saying it means everything. However, that doesn't mean it means nothing either. 

Some people, like Skip Bayless on 1st and 10, will point to the fact that the Heat have turned things around since then and that they've gone 23-5 since that loss. They deserve credit for that. All the same, it should be acknowledged that the Bulls have gone 27-5 over the exact same time span.

What about the postseason though? After all, while the Heat were ringing up Philadelphia and Boston, the Bulls were struggling with the Pacers and the Hawks. At least that's what we're told. It's not quite true though.

You would think that the Bulls have been barely eking out wins in the postseason, but that's only if you stretch the word "struggle" to mean "blow out." Every single game the Bulls won against Atlanta was by 12 points or more and their last five wins have been by an average of 17.8 points. That's hardly "struggling." Apparently, the Bulls are overrated because they didn't sweep everyone.  

If you look at the postseason as a whole, the Bulls have actually scored more points on average than Miami (94.9 to 94.7) and given up fewer (87.7 to 88.8). Put together, Chicago has a 1.1 larger average margin of victory than Miami.

Miami did it against better competition though, right? Not quite. Indiana had a better record under Frank Vogel than Boston did after the Perkins trade. On top of that, the Vogel Pacers beat the sans-Perkins Celtics.

And yes, the Hawks were playing horrible coming down the stretch, but they beat the Magic in the first round—which they weren't supposed to do—and the Bulls really didn't struggle with them nearly as much as some would like to make out they did.

The Bulls aren't going to be able to bring their 3-0 record of course. However, they will be able to bring the knowledge that they beat Miami three times in three tries. The Heat aren't going to be able to intimidate the Bulls the way they might be able to intimidate a young team that they'd swept. 

Furthermore, the Heat are an emotional team. The first two games are at the United Center, where the Bulls have the best home record in the NBA. If the Bulls win the first game, it can get into the Heat heads. If they win the second game, it can get into their heads even more. 

In that sense, it matters a lot. The Bulls know they can beat the Heat, and so do the Heat. If the Bulls start the series 2-0 though, the Heat may start to wonder whether they can beat the Bulls, and it's not impossible that the Bulls will win the first two games of the series.