NBA Playoffs 2011: Can Derrick Rose and Chicago Bulls Represent East in Finals?

Right now the Chicago Bulls are playing as well as anyone in the NBA. Since they started 9-8, they've won 51 of 63. In NBA history 15 teams have won 51 or more of their final 65 games. Of the 14 teams who have completed postseasons, 10 won the NBA championship. Can the Bulls be the 11th?

The truth is there are a host of reasons to believe they could and another host of reasons to suggest they don't. 

On the positive side, the Bulls are a number one seed with a number one defense. Of the last 31 NBA champions, 15 were number one seeds and 15 were top five in defensive rating. 

The Bull are only the fourth team in NBA history to have a defensive rating below 101, and an offensive rating of 108 or higher. The previous three, the 2008 Celtics, 2007 Spurs and 1983 76ers, all won the NBA Championship.

There is a good chance that Tom Thibodeau will win the Coach of the Year and Derrick Rose will win the MVP. In the history of the NBA, that's been done 11 times. On six of those occasions, the same team also was a top-three defensive team, and four of those times, the team won the NBA Championship.

On the other hand, there's some history working against the Bulls. I can only find two teams that have won the NBA championship without having advanced at least to the second round the prior year, the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers and 2008 Boston Celtics.

There are only 12 teams, counting this year's Bulls, who have won 60 games without winning 50 in the season before. Of those 11 who have completed their postseason, only four have won the title. 

Of the last 34 NBA Champions, 18 have had two players in the top 15 in PER, the Bulls only have one. There were 25 champions that had two players in the top 25 in PER. The Bulls only have one. The Bulls do have Carlos Boozer, who ranks 33rd, and Joakim Noah, who ranks 44th though. Only one team has won without at least two players in the top 50. 

The bottom line is that the Bulls are good enough to win an NBA championship, but there is a valid question as to whether they are experienced enough. There are some who make it out that the Bulls have almost no playoff experience at all and no successful playoff experience. That's not quite accurate either.

There have been over 320 games of collective postseason experience. Carlos Boozer has been to a conference finals. Luol Deng has been to the second round. Keith Bogans has been to the second round. There has been some second round and beyond playoff experience among the Bulls starters.

The real question is with Derrick Rose. The unquestioned leader of the team has not been out of the first round.  Some make the argument "he's never won a series." It's something of a misleading argument.

In 2009 they were a seventh seed and gave the defending champion Boston Celtics a battle for the ages, taking the Celtics to seven games in what many consider to be the greatest first-round series in the league's history.

In 2010 they were pitted against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the number one overall seed. The team was gutted near the end of the season and had no chance of winning but the team still managed to steal a game from Cleveland.

Over his first two regular seasons, Rose averaged 18.7 points and 6.2 assists. Over his first two postseasons, 22.7 points and 6.8 assists. Rose played better in the postseason in spite of the fact that in both cases, he was going against two of the best teams and best defenses in the NBA.

The Bulls didn't lose because Rose buckled under the pressure, they competed because he stepped up to it. 

His second-half performance against the Kansas Jayhawks was one of the more memorable in NCAA history.

He's second in the NBA in clutch scoring, defined by 82 games as less than five points remaining, and the score five points or closer. He is the only NBA player averaging a triple-double per 48 minutes of clutch time play.

He's made four of seven field goals on the season to tie or win a game, the most of any player in the NBA this season.

There is nothing on Rose's résumé that suggests that he shrinks when the stage grows. In fact, all the evidence is to the contrary. This is a huge point, which I will follow up on momentarily.  

The argument that he's "never won" is misleading.  It's like the argument that people used against the Packers and Aaron Rodgers before the postseason this January, and we all saw how that turned out. 

Does that mean Chicago will win the Larry O'Brien Trophy? No, of course not. It does mean that Derrick Rose has shown a history of stepping up in the playoffs though. It does mean that Derrick Rose's not having "won a playoff series" automatically disqualifies him from ever being able to win one, or to beat the more seasoned teams like the Heat and Celtics this year.

Here's the huge part. The deal is that the "never done it before" dissipates every time someone does something. If by some miraculous twist of fate the Bulls manage to eek out a win with their NBA's best defense against the worst offense in the playoffs, and beat the Pacers in four out of seven, then suddenly, Rose will have won a playoff series. 

As he advances three things happen automatically. First, Rose will have won a series. Second, the stage will grow. Third, Rose will rise to the challenge. It's something wired into his DNA. When he does rise up, his team will follow. 

The Bulls are a team that has dealt with adversity with the kind of discipline you'd expect to see from a team of seasoned veterans. On the other hand, the teams with the seasoned playoff experience have shown signs of not dealing with it well. 

The Heat have shown weakness. The Bulls literally made the Heat cry after beating them. There have been other signs too—such as the real or perceived shots at their coach delivered by the team that indicate a team that could start falling apart if they fall behind in a series, or the failures in last shot situations.

The Boston Celtics' struggles aren't the same as last year. They aren't losing because they are resting; they were dominated by the Bulls and the Heat within a four-day period. They've been in downward spiral since the Kendrick Perkins trade.

The Magic aren't the team that has made it to the finals. Since the trade, they're 35-21. It's not bad, but it's not championship material. They're 19-22 against teams with winning records. That doesn't bode well for postseason contention or speak to a team that rises to the challenge.   

Does that mean the Bulls are a shoe-in to win the title? Of course not. The Magic are still led by Dwight Howard. The Heat still have Chris Bosh, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, and the Boston Celtics still have their own big four. 

And really, this is what it all comes down to. There are three teams realistically that have the talent to win the East (sorry, Orlando does not, but they do have the talent to pull an upset). What it is all going to come down to is whose talent steps up the most, and there's sufficient reason to believe that Chicago could be that team. The emphasis is on the word could.

On the one hand it would be historic for the Bulls, freshly assembled to go from a 41-win team to being in the NBA Finals in a single season, and for that reason skepticism is not only rational, it's expected.

However, there's a number of things that are rightly positioned for the Bulls to achieve that kind of history. They are the right kind of team, with the right kind of players and the right kind of mentality. There are the right kind of kinks in the other contenders' armor. 

The chances that the Bulls can win the Eastern Conference are somewhere between possible and probable. If they did it, it would be undoubtedly historic, but this team has already accomplished historic things.