College Football Week 13 Preview: 10 "Sure" Picks Against the Spread

So you're looking at the college football games this weekend and wondering who will—or who won't—cover the spread.

Well, I'm here to tell you the 10 "sure" picks.

The guys in Vegas obviously do this for a reason. But let's see if I can outsmart them.

They have to slip up somewhere. Last week, the over-under on the Cornhuskers-Aggies game was 50 points.

Only 15 were scored, though.

And you better believe I had the under in that game.

10. Michigan +17 @ Ohio State

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ANN ARBOR, MI - NOVEMBER 20: Denard Robinson #16 of the Michigan Wolverines puts his shoe back on while playing the Wisconsin Badgers tackles at Michigan Stadium on November 20, 2010 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Wisconsin won the game 48-38. (Photo by Gregor

Michigan's worst loss of the season came last week, when they fell to Wisconsin by 20 points.

Michigan doesn't really have a defense. But they have a heck of an offense as you may know. 

I can see Michigan losing this game by 17. That would be a push, but not much more.

Take Michigan against the spread.

9. Marshall -9.5 vs. Tulane

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COLUMBUS, OH - SEPTEMBER 2: Martin Ward #29 of the Marshall Thundering Herd runs with the ball against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium on September 2, 2010 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

Marshall is better than their 4-7 record indicates, while Tulane is worse than their 4-7 indicates.

Last week, Tulane was absolutely decimated by UCF.

Expect more of the same when Tulane visits Marshall this week.

Take Marshall against the spread.

8. UCF -26 @ Memphis

UCF trounced Tulane last week by 37 points last week.

Memphis is even worse than Tulane, if you can imagine that.

The transitive property (I haven't taken math in a while, but I think that's the right one) doesn't always work in football.

But I think it will in this scenario.

UCF has, by far, the best athlete on the field in rookie quarterback Jeff Godfrey.

Take UCF against the spread.

7. Michigan State -1.5 @ Penn State

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IOWA CITY, IA - OCTOBER 30- Quarterback Kirk Cousins #8 of the Michigan State Spartans looks down field for a receiver during play against the University of Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium on October 30, 2010 in Iowa City, Iowa. Iowa won 37-6 over Michig

The oddsmakers are giving Penn State a little too much credit in this one.

Yes, Penn State has won four out their last five games. However, all four of those wins came against middle-of-the-pack Big Ten teams, at best.

Penn State is still yet to beat a ranked team. That won't change against Michigan State.

Michigan State is playing for something important: A share of the Big Ten title. Even though, as it stands, the tie-breaker would go to Wisconsin.

It would also give the Spartans their first 11-win season.

Expect Kirk Cousins and Michigan State to cover the minuscule spread. 

6. Auburn +4.5 @ Alabama

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AUBURN, AL - NOVEMBER 13: Quarterback Cameron Newton #2 of the Auburn Tigers celebrates after a touchdown against the Georgia Bulldogs at Jordan-Hare Stadium on November 13, 2010 in Auburn, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

I agree with the oddsmakers that Auburn is likely to lose this weekend.

But, even at that, I'm giving Alabama a 51 percent shot at winning, and Auburn a 49 percent shot.

Which means I see this game being decided by a field goal. Auburn controls its own destiny, and you should be expecting the best they have to offer.

Take Auburn and the 4.5 points.

5. Arizona +19.5 @ Oregon

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BERKELEY, CA - NOVEMBER 13: Darron Thomas #1 of the Oregon Ducks in action during their game against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium on November 13, 2010 in Berkeley, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Oregon is good.

But are they 19.5 points better than Arizona? I don't think so.

Arizona has one of the most underrated Pac-10 quarterbacks in Nick Foles. I expect them to compete with Oregon.

Keep in mind Oregon won by two against Cal last week. That 19.5 points would have been enough to cover the score differential in their games against USC and Stanford.

Take 'Zona and the 19.5 points.

4. Iowa -15.5 @ Minnesota

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IOWA CITY, IA - NOVEMBER 20: Quarterback Ricky Stanzi #12 of the University of Iowa Hawkeyes scrambles for yards under pressure from the Ohio State Buckeyes at Kinnick Stadium on November 20, 2010 in Iowa City, Iowa. Ohio State won 20-17 over Iowa. (Phot

What's there to say?

Iowa is an underrated team, mostly because they've suffered four tough losses.

Minnesota is downright awful.

Iowa will take the frustrations of a tough season on a struggling Minnesota team and crush them.

Take Iowa against the spread.

3. FAU +4.5 @ Middle Tennessee State

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NEW ORLEANS - DECEMBER 20: Dwight Dasher #9 of the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders celebrates after throwing a touchdown pass against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles during the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl at the Louisiana Superdome on December 20, 2009 i

This game features two teams with 4-6 records.

Neither team has a signature win, and they're both evenly matched.

It's borderline shocking that FAU is getting more than a field goals worth of points in this game.

As stupid as it sounds, FAU is super pumped coming into this week. Their former quarterback, Rusty Smith, is starting for the Titans this week.

I expect FAU to win this game. Even if they lose by a field goal, you still win with the spread.

Take FAU.

2. Texas A&M -3.5 @ Texas

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AUSTIN, TX - NOVEMBER 27: Quarterback Ryan Tannehill #17 of the Texas A&M Aggies runs the ball against the Texas Longhorns on November 27, 2008 at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas. Texas won 49-9. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images

The Aggies beat the highly-respected Nebraska Cornhuskers by a field goal last week.

They will better that margin against the Texas Longhorns this week.

Since Ryan Tannehill took the starting job from Jerrod Johnson, the Aggies have yet to lose. On the other hand, Mack Brown's Texas squad has admittedly quit on their season.

The only reason for concern is that the game is played at Texas. But there should be plenty of A&M fans in the crowd.

Take the Aggies against the spread.

1. Missouri -24.5 vs. Kansas

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COLUMBIA, MO - NOVEMBER 13: Quarterback Blaine Gabbert #11 of the Missouri Tigers passes during the game against the Kansas State Wildcats on November 13, 2010 at Faurot Field/Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Missouri has to win their game against Kansas and pray the Cornhuskers lose to Colorado on Thursday to have a shot to win the Big XII North.

Will Missouri let up if the Cornhuskers win against Colorado?

I'm betting no.

So either way, I see them covering the spread against an awful Kansas team that has been blown out many times this year.