Panic Meter for NBA's Fringe Playoff Hopefuls
Someone, somewhere, will invariably tell you this is no time panic if you're rooting for a fringe NBA playoff team that actually wants to crack the play-in tournament.
That person is, unequivocally, wrong.
Every team has fewer than 25 regular-season games left on its schedule. This is crunch time—the 11th hour. If you're not going to worry about immediate hopes run astray and how these potential misfires impact the longer outlook now, then when?
Not every could-be playoff squad is losing sleep over its status quo. Some are right on schedule or close to it. That's why we're dusting off the ol' panic meter: to determine how much teams fighting for seventh, eighth, ninth or 10th place in their respective conferences must chafe and fume over their current spot within the postseason hierarchy—assuming they even need to fret at all.
Panic Meter on Low: Eastern Conference
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Charlotte Hornets
Agonizing over the Hornets falling outside of the play-in picture will be fair game if it happens. Regression of that kind means they've ceded a top-10 spot to either the Bradley Beal-less Washington Wizards or sad-sack New York Knicks. That's no bueno.
Personally, though, I cannot convince myself that Charlotte should be facing any real urgency. This is Year 2 of LaMelo Ball, a legitimately transcendent building block but someone who's not even old enough to legally order adult beverages all the same. The Hornets will eventually be playoffs-or-bust. They're not there yet.
Save the concern for the offseason, when they will potentially need to max out Miles Bridges (restricted) and have to more aggressively figure out permanent solutions at the center spot. (Though, to be fair, the Mason Plumlee-Montrezl Harrell minutes have been surprisingly killer so far.)
Toronto Raptors
Toronto doesn't technically belong here unless you're in the business of overreacting to the ass whooping Charlotte handed it Friday night. The Raptors have a three-game hold in the loss column on seventh place and are many moons away from dropping out of the top 10.
But rules, as they say, are rules. Toronto is sitting within play-in territory, so it must be here.
Sticklers will harp on the top-heaviness of the Raptors roster construction or the vulnerability of their half-court offense, which relies too much on cleaning up friendly misses. Color me unconcerned.
Maybe the perpetually short-handed Brooklyn Nets will figure out a way to leapfrog them for the top play-in slot, but the Raptors have an equally realistic chance of catching the Boston Celtics (sixth) or Cleveland Cavaliers (fifth) and perhaps even the Milwaukee Bucks (fourth) or Philadelphia 76ers (third) in the standings.
Panic Meter on Low: Western Conference
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L.A. Clippers
By-the-book purists will insist the Clippers should actually fear retreating outside of the play-in tournament. The top six in the Western Conference are essentially set, and L.A. owes its unprotected first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Closing up shop without even one fake playoff game under its belt would be a disaster.
Or not.
The Clippers are dealing with injuries galore. Kawhi Leonard has yet to play this season while recovering from a partially torn right ACL. Paul George is still working his way back from a right elbow injury. Recent arrival Norman Powell is on the shelf indefinitely with a fractured left foot.
Frankly, the Clippers are lucky to be so firmly entrenched in the postseason discussion. And it's hard to envision them vanishing from it. Teams outside the top 10 aren't close enough to them in the loss column, and George could still return. Plus, even if the Clippers suffer an implosion of epic proportions, they juiced up next year's ceiling with the acquisition of Powell, someone worth more than a mid-to-late lottery pick.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Similar to the Raptors, the Timberwolves don't need to be here. They'd need to caps-lock, command-B, command-I COLLAPSE down the stretch to forfeit seventh place in the West, let alone drop out of the top 10.
Whether they can make a ruckus in the postseason is a separate matter. They need to recapture their defensive flair from earlier in the year. But they still seem to be on to something overall.
Karl-Anthony Towns is closer to a top-10 star than top-20 player, and the offense has found a neat-o balance between featuring Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell. The starting five has slipped off its world-beating pace but remains a net-rating dream. And both Jaden McDaniels and Jarred Vanderbilt move like they have nitrous-oxide tanks attached to their shoes. Minnesota's 2021-22 campaign counts as progress.
San Antonio Spurs
Nobody should worry about the Spurs missing the play-in tournament. They have not acted like a team trying to make it. They moved on from DeMar DeRozan over the summer and then doubled down on their direction by jettisoning Derrick White at the trade deadline.
If this isn't a full-on rebuild, it's at least a gradual build.
Feel free to mope at the prospect of the Spurs stumbling into a top-10 spot when they should be souping up their draft pick. That's your prerogative. It's also needless. San Antonio has basically no shot at bagging top-four lottery odds. Drafting somewhere between Nos. 13 and 16 instead of Nos. 8 and 12 isn't that much of a concession.
Panic Meter on Moderate: Eastern Conference
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Atlanta Hawks
Set the Hawks' panic meter to high if you're still measuring them against last year's Eastern Conference Finals appearance. My recommendation: Don't do that. It's a different season, and Atlanta has real problems getting back on defense after missed shots and turnovers.
Expectations should be adjusted accordingly. The Hawks maintain a higher ceiling than the average postseason steppingstone, but they're not above the wafer-thin margin for error everyone else in the East's middle class finds itself operating under.
Granted, tumbling outside of the play-in tournament would be a basketball catastrophe, even when factoring in the hodgepodge of key injuries with which they've dealt. But their worst-case scenario must be actualized by a Wizards team without Bradley Beal or Knicks squad that genuinely has no idea what the hell it's doing.
So long as Trae Young remains available—*feverishly knocks on heavy oaken table*—the Hawks will have at least one additional game to play after the regular season.
Washington Wizards
Washington can no longer measure the success of this season by whether it earns the right to get smoked as play-in or first-round fodder. The Spencer Dinwiddie experiment went belly up. Bradley Beal is out for the rest of the year after undergoing left wrist surgery. Kristaps Porzingis, who came over as part of Dinwiddie's exit, continues to battle a right knee injury.
For all intents and purposes, the Wizards are better off putting as much distance between themselves and the playoffs as possible. A higher draft pick will do more for their outlook than a momentary postseason appearance.
This is not to say they're free from concern altogether. They started off the year hot and initially assembled the roster with the goal of emerging as a playoff fixture. They have failed. And while that affords them the freedom to plumb the depths of their supporting cast, they don't have an obvious path to re-signing Beal this summer (player option) and climbing out from the bottom of the middle.
Panic Meter on Moderate: Western Conference
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New Orleans Pelicans
Others will ascribe a higher level of urgency to the rest of the Pelicans' season. You don't trade for CJ McCollum at the deadline while surrendering a first-round pick that conveys if it lands between Nos. 5 and No. 14 when you're not married to making the play-in tournament.
There's no guarantee they will make good on that implicit promise. And, well, whatever. Anyone bemoaning the cap flexibility the Pelicans sacrificed needs a reality check. Spending power only goes so far in a market like New Orleans. We just saw the Pelicans lose out on, if not never really enter, the Kyle Lowry sweepstakes last summer. Acquiring a human bucket who addressed a glaring lack of backcourt depth is far from indefensible.
New Orleans' play-in pursuit also gets a boost from some of the teams in front of them. Neither San Antonio nor Portland is concerned with winning now. The path to 10th place may soon be unimpeded. If the Pelicans are going to worry about anything, it's the health of Zion Williamson, who has yet to play this season and may need a second procedure on his injured right foot.
Which, fair! That's why moderate panic mode is engaged. With or without the McCollum acquisition, though, the Pelicans were never a team invested above all in its immediate fate.
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers should not be terrified at the thought of missing the play-in tournament. They should be scared of accidentally ending up inside it. Their midseason redirect is clearly aimed at maximizing their draft-lottery odds and keeping this year's first-round pick while grinding out an ultra-lean cap sheet.
Successfully following that path shouldn't be an issue. McCollum and Norman Powell are gone. Both Damian Lillard (abdominal) and Jusuf Nurkic (foot) are sidelined with injuries. Head coach Chauncey Billups is turning to youngsters and experimental fliers. Avoiding the West's top 10 should be a given.
And yet, they remain inside that top 10 as of now. It may only be by a hair, but they're still a play-in candidate. Their commitment to reverse-engineering this roster isn't done.
Sacramento Kings
Landing Domantas Sabonis doesn't put any additional pressure on the Kings to wedge their way into the West's top 10. They are too far outside of the play-in fracas, and for the time being, his arrival merely diversifies the way in which they play rather than substantially bump up their ceiling.
Sacramento's panic level is only a cut above the minimum because the Sabonis acquisition demands the team clarify an otherwise fuzzy direction over the offseason. Can it add more actual wings? What becomes of the suddenly redundant Richaun Holmes? Do they have the supplementary assets to get involved in other meaningful trade talks? Can they keep De'Aaron Fox away from NFT ventures? The questions go on—and none of them have obvious answers.
Panic Meter on High: Eastern Conference
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Brooklyn Nets
This is non-negotiable. The Nets entered the season as title favorites—as potentially inevitable. They have since seen their certified superteam devolve into a gargantuan what-if that could feasibly enter the postseason as a freaking play-in participant.
Many will maintain that finishing much lower than expected on the Eastern Conference ladder is a bigger problem for Brooklyn's opponents than the Nets themselves. Spare us. Please. That's borderline galaxy-brain. It awards Brooklyn a level of faith it nowhere near deserves.
Will Kevin Durant hold up when he returns from a sprained left MCL? What will Ben Simmons look like when he takes the floor for the first time in nearly a year? Is his fit within the offense really a given? Will New York City phase out COVID-19 vaccine mandates, or will Kyrie Irving remain a part-time player through the postseason? What's the Nets' ceiling with him appearing in only three to four games per playoff series? Would they even make it far enough to play out an entire series?
Looking beyond this year doesn't inoculate Brooklyn against rampant concern either. Durant's durability will never be a nonissue again, and Kyrie's free agency (player option) hardly profiles as a settled matter. This team is not irredeemable. Let's make that clear. But it is living on the brink.
New York Knicks
Forget about the Knicks resurrecting their season and cracking the play-in tournament. It isn't happening. They are better served cannonballing into a developmental stage highlighted by lots and lots of Obi Toppin, Immanuel Quickley, Miles "Deuce" McBride, Cam Reddish and even more RJ Barrett—just not in needless garbage time. (Quentin Grimes belongs here as well, but a recent patella injury suggests limited availability.)
Shoutout to anyone who believes head coach Tom Thibodeau will oversee a partial-season rebuild—or even cease playing Alec Burks at point guard or maybe try, for once, to play Toppin and Julius Randle together. There seems to be a real disconnect between himself and front office, and it isn't going away overnight.
And even if it does, then what? The Knicks will get a middling lottery pick but still enter the offseason as the Mayor of Nowheresville. They haven't made one singularly damning move or investment, but the sum of their choices will require a thorough overhaul if they're going to pave a concrete direction, be it rebuilding or slingshotting themselves into fringe title contention.
Panic Meter on High: Western Conference
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Los Angeles Lakers
All is not well with the Lakers. And we don't need to pretend otherwise. Or keep holding out hope that Anthony Davis (currently out with midfoot sprain) will remain healthy long enough for him and LeBron James to paper over the team's painfully glaring issues. Or imagine a scenario in which Russell Westbrook is suddenly a fantastic fit for this roster.
Those ships have sailed. Default optimism is no longer stubborn. It's just plain unrealistic. Klutch Sports CEO Rich Paul, the agent for LeBron and AD, just needed to have a sitdown with Lakers management to assure them James wasn't focused on forcing a trade this offseason or getting general manager Rob Pelinka fired for crying out loud.
This is not normal stuff. Closed-door meetings and disagreements happen all the time, but the ease and frequency with which they spill out from Los Angeles is a classic case of Control the Narrative chicken. The odds of this season ending in anything other than a play-in or first-round exit are not great. And the future beyond this year is hazy.
Can the Lakers turn Westbrook's expiring contract (player option), their 2027 and 2029 first-rounders and perhaps some swaps into an impact player who reopens their title window? Should they even be willing to mortgage that much of their future ahead of LeBron's age-38 season?
Will Pelinka actually keep his job? What about head coach Frank Vogel? Is LeBron really committed to the Lakers long term? And is L.A., in turn, willing to act like a flagship franchise rather than pinch pennies and assets as it (presumably) tries to reinvent the supporting cast around its two superstars?
This team is exhausting—and, most damningly, without immediate or big-picture clarity.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Friday's games. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by NBA Math's Adam Fromal.
