Ranking the Luckiest NBA Champions Since 2000
What's luck got to do with it?
If it is winning an NBA title, then maybe a fair amount.
Every champion has been the beneficiary of good fortune. But some catch more good breaks than others.
Before going any further, it's worth noting that being lucky is by no means synonymous with being undeserving. Some of the teams presented here are among the best we've seen over the past two decades.
This is all about examining title treks to see which were nudged just a bit more by luck than others. That's sort of a catch-all, tough-to-define term, but it includes everything from health and competition to comebacks and miracle shots. The six teams—which, again, deserve the championship banners in their home arenas—selected were each ranked by the amount of luck they received along the way.
6. 2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers
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These Cavaliers were dead in the water—until they weren't.
Trailing 3-1 in the Finals had always been as good as losing it. Thirty-two teams had been in that predicament before, and all 32 were defeated. And remember, Cleveland was fighting against history on multiple fronts. This wasn't merely a 3-1 deficit; it meant having to defeat the Association's all-time wins leader three straight times—twice away from home.
But Cleveland, a city that went more than five decades without a championship of any kind, finally found some overdue fortune.
It started with Draymond Green's ill-advised groin shot to LeBron James in Game 4 that drew a flagrant-1 foul and triggered an automatic suspension based on Green's previous transgressions. The Dubs ran out of steam without him in Game 5, scoring just 13 points in the fourth quarter and falling by a 112-97 count.
Their starting center and top rim protector, Andrew Bogut, suffered a knee injury in that contest and never returned to the series. Andre Iguodala, their designated LeBron-stopper, battled back pain and moved with a noticeable stiffness. Stephen Curry hurt his knee in Golden State's playoff opener and added ankle and elbow injuries to his ailment list. His player efficiency rating plummeted from 31.5 in the regular season to 22.3 in the playoffs.
Cleveland, of course, still needed to win these games, and it got all-time plays from LeBron James (The Block) and Kyrie Irving (The Shot). But no one could wiggle out of a 3-1 hole without some major fortune in their favor.
5. 2006-07 San Antonio Spurs
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While the "We Believe" Golden State Warriors won't soon be forgotten, there isn't enough discussion on what their success meant for the 2006-07 postseason. The headline was their becoming the first No. 8 seed to upset a No. 1 in a seven-game series. The more significant development, though, was the removal of the NBA-best 67-win Dallas Mavericks from the playoff field.
That effectively left the Spurs and Phoenix Suns to fight for the crown in their second-round showdown. The Suns were playing perhaps their best basketball of the Seven Seconds or Less era, as they won 61 games and even paired their No. 1 offense with an upper-half defense.
As Phoenix was putting the finishing touches on a Game 4 win that knotted the series at 2-2, Robert Horry hip-checked Steve Nash into the scorer's table. That brought Amar'e Stoudemire and Boris Diaw off the Suns bench, and even though neither made any contact with a Spurs player, they both received one-game suspensions that kept them out of a pivotal Game 5.
"You know we do have the most powerful microscopes and telescopes in the world in Arizona," then-Suns coach Mike D'Antoni remarked. "You could use those instruments and not find a shred of fairness or common sense in that decision."
The undersized Suns nearly stole Game 5, but they dropped that game and the next. Just like that, the Spurs waltzed to a title, needing all of nine games to defeat the 51-win Utah Jazz and 50-win Cavaliers.
4. 2012-13 Miami Heat
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Miami's first championship hurdle was cleared before the 2012-13 campaign tipped. Derrick Rose was lost for the entire year with a torn ACL suffered the previous postseason, meaning the Association's wins leader from the past two seasons was plucked out of the contender ranks.
That left the Heat fending with the 49-win Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, and the Circle City should've drawn first blood. The Pacers had a one-point lead with 2.2 seconds left in overtime and the NBA's best defense to protect it. But Paul George lost containment of James on the ensuing sideline inbound, and James raced to the rim for the game-winner as interior anchor Roy Hibbert could only watch from the sideline.
The Pacers eventually took the series to seven games, but that was their only shot to grab the lead—the Heat's other three wins were all by double digits—and they couldn't seal the deal.
In the Finals, the San Antonio Spurs did everything other than take the title. They held series leads of 1-0, 2-1 and 3-2, and in Game 6, they carried a 10-point lead into the fourth quarter and a five-point advantage into the final 30 seconds. But James' three-pointer and Kawhi Leonard's 1-of-2 showing at the free-throw line set the stage for Ray Allen's improbable heroics.
After James missed a triple with 7.9 seconds left, Chris Bosh controlled the offensive rebound—as Tim Duncan watched from the sideline—and found Allen retreating to the corner. The veteran sharpshooter splashed a series-saving triple, and even though it was a sequence he had improbably practiced before, he recognized the fortune in his success.
"When you win championships, it involves a little luck," Allen told reporters. "That right there was luck shining on our side."
The Spurs never recovered, dropping the overtime session 8-5 and Game 7 by a 95-88 score.
3. 2004-05 San Antonio Spurs
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The NBA was in a weird place in 2004-05. Michael Jordan retired for good in 2003, while Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal split the following summer. The league had no Goliath, and teams weren't exactly scrambling to fill that role.
Byrant's Los Angeles Lakers didn't make the playoffs, and neither did their 2004 Western Conference Finals counterpart, the Kevin Garnett-led Minnesota Timberwolves. LeBron James' playoff debut wouldn't come until the following season. The Sacramento Kings waved the white flag by trading Chris Webber in February, lost in the opening round and haven't won more than 44 games since.
The Pacers probably should've been basketball's next in line after a 61-win breakout the prior year, but the Malice at the Palace derailed their season. Shaq's new running mate, Dwyane Wade, hurt his rib in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, didn't play in Game 6 and shot 7-of-20 in Game 7. The top-seeded, 62-win Phoenix Suns didn't have their third-leading scorer and top shooter, Joe Johnson, for six of their 15 playoff tilts.
The Spurs never really encountered a major threat. Granted, they went seven games with the defending champion Detroit Pistons in the Finals, but that series was an eyesore—there was only one triple-digit final score—and the reigning champs weren't the same.
"It's difficult to get excited about the '05 Spurs when they barely squeezed by a seven-man Pistons team that had peaked a year earlier," Bill Simmons wrote for Grantland in 2012.
The Spurs had solid championship credentials (59 wins, No. 1 defense, No. 8 offense), plus an in-prime superstar in Tim Duncan. But Tony Parker was still finding his footing, and the bench had next to nothing beyond Robert Horry's shooting.
2. 2014-15 Golden State Warriors
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This is where we remind you (again) that lucky does not mean unmerited.
The 2014-15 Golden State Warriors were by far the season's best team. Their statistical peers are only found in the history books. Their 67 wins are tied for the seventh-most ever recorded. Their plus-10.1 margin of victory ranks 12th all-time.
The Dubs led the NBA in defense and pace, and their offense ranked second-best. They had the season's MVP in Stephen Curry, an All-NBA third-teamer in Klay Thompson and Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Draymond Green, who actually collected the most first-place votes.
They didn't need luck to take the title, and yet, it still poured over their entire playoff run.
Their first opponent, the New Orleans Pelicans, had diminished versions of Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans, who both battled leg injuries. The next, the Memphis Grizzlies, opened their series without floor general Mike Conley (facial fracture) and closed it without defensive dynamo Tony Allen (hamstring). In the conference finals, Golden State drew a Houston Rockets team missing Patrick Beverley and Donatas Motiejunas and featuring a hobbled Dwight Howard.
The championship round saw more of the same. While LeBron James stayed upright—and drew MVP votes from the losing side—the Cleveland Cavaliers were already without Kevin Love (shoulder) and lost Kyrie Irving to a fractured kneecap during overtime of Game 1.
"Golden State was the best team in the league, but they also had everything go right for them," JJ Redick told Zach Lowe that October. "They didn't have one bad break."
1. 2018-19 Toronto Raptors
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Last season's Raptors—still the reigning champs indefinitely—completed perhaps the greatest Hail Mary pass in NBA history.
Toronto never sniffs the championship conversation without Kawhi Leonard tiring of the Alamo City and potential suitors being scared off by the uncertainty of the free-agent-to-be's contract status and recent injury woes (nine appearances in 2017-18). LeBron James' decision to leave the East for the too-raw-to-contend Los Angeles Lakers probably greased the Raptors' runway, too.
No one may have realized it at the time, but Danny Green's role as a money-matcher in the Leonard deal increased the Raptors' championship odds. Same goes for the Memphis Grizzlies keeping Marc Gasol too long and then trading him at a discount after the Charlotte Hornets declined a deal for him. Ousting Coach of the Year Dwane Casey for first-year skipper Nick Nurse proved beyond brilliant.
Toronto's good fortune was just getting started.
The Raptors actually lost their playoff opener, but then the Orlando Magic turned back into pumpkins—Nikola Vucevic, Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross all shot below 38 percent—and crisis was averted. The Philadelphia 76ers loomed as a major challenge in the conference semis, and they mostly looked the part. But All-Star center Joel Embiid battled injuries and illness, and Toronto found a way to sneak out of the series on Leonard's four-bounce series-clincher in Game 7.
The 60-win Milwaukee Bucks were up next, and they sprinted to a 2-0 lead with a 22-point victory in Game 2. But Leonard found ways to bother MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the Bucks couldn't find a countermove. The Raptors rolled to four straight wins from there.
The Warriors awaited them in the Finals, where oddsmakers expected Golden State to three-peat. But Kevin Durant had been missing in action since straining his calf in the second round, and it was unclear when he could return. He finally hit the hardwood in Game 5—with the Dubs already down 3-1—but played fewer than 12 minutes before rupturing his Achilles. The next time out, the Warriors lost fellow All-Star Klay Thompson to a torn ACL.
Not even Golden State could overcome that level of turbulence, and Toronto secured its first title courtesy of strong two-way play, bold moves from the front office and the most luck bestowed upon a champion in at least 20 years.
"We got lucky with a lot of things, but the timing of it, getting the pieces we got even at the deadline like Marc Gasol, staying healthy and other teams not being healthy," Green told reporters last summer. "... Things kind of fell in line for us. It was just our time, it seemed like."
All stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
