The Biggest X-Factor for Every NBA Title Contender
Don't you just love the first few weeks of the NBA season? Between watching players fit in with their new teammates, seeing rookies impress and figuring out which teams are for real and which might disappoint, it's an exciting time of the year.
Of course, this 2019-20 campaign feels especially interesting because for the first time in years, the Golden State Warriors are not the heavy favorites to win the Finals. The league is as wide open as it's been in recent memory, and several teams have a legitimate chance to claim the Larry O'Brien Trophy next June.
However, none of these contenders* are flawless (at least on paper), and that's one of the reasons to tune in every night. We all want to see if or how they are able to counteract perceived shortcomings and achieve the ultimate goal.
X-factors determine a contender's relative ceiling or floor and whether these teams will bow out in the first round or win 16 games and raise the final trophy. They can often be smaller-scale storylines, but they're extremely important.
Let's take a look at some X-factors for the NBA's elite class.
*In this article, contenders are defined as teams with an over/under of at least 50 wins, per Caesars Sportsbook.
Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray
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On their best days, the Denver Nuggets will look like the deepest team in the NBA. But at the league's highest level, a good bench can only mean so much. Your best players must come up big when it matters.
For Denver, that means reliance on newly minted first-team All-NBA center Nikola Jokic and his sous chef, combo guard Jamal Murray. Jokic put all speculation about his elite status to bed last postseason, producing stats only matched by the great Oscar Robertson, but Murray still warrants some questioning.
Yes, he rained fire and fury upon the San Antonio Spurs during an epic fourth-quarter performance in April, but streakiness remains a staple of Murray's game. He famously missed the first 17 field-goal attempts of his career and shot just 33.7 percent from three in last year's playoffs.
Eruptions like his Game 2 performance against the Spurs are extremely valuable. But to get closer to his full potential, Murray must emulate microwave scorers such as Kyrie Irving or Lou Williams. Both can take over games for quarters at a time or fade into the background, but their valleys usually aren't as dramatic as his 4-of-18 outing in Denver's season-ending Game 7 loss against the Portland Trail Blazers.
If he can sand the edges off his inherent inconsistency, then the Nuggets could be for real this time.
Houston Rockets: Russell Westbrook
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It's strange to call a perennial All-Star and future Hall of Famer an X-factor, but Russell Westbrook truly is one for the Houston Rockets.
We all remember the 2016-17 NBA season. That's the year Westbrook first averaged a triple-double, winning MVP and frustrating many basketball fans in the process. And though he has not seen much playoff success, he still remains one of the most polarizing players in the NBA for the same reason as three years ago.
He plays a very particular way, and it involves him having the basketball far more than anybody else and taking inefficient mid-range jumpers at the expense of offensive rhythm. Concern is understandable now that he's on a team that both already has an extremely ball-dominant scorer in James Harden and eschews mid-range jumpers almost entirely.
Still, there are reasons for optimism about the on-court relationship of Westbrook and Harden.
They're childhood friends and former AAU teammates, and Westbrook seems to be making a sincere effort to integrate himself into this Harden-centric offense. But old habits die hard, and his habits are as ingrained as can be. They were a massive talking point when Kevin Durant was also with the Oklahoma City Thunder, and that partnership feels like a lifetime ago.
If he and Harden are in sync by April, Houston will be fun to watch and a likely frontrunner for the title.
Los Angeles Clippers: Health
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There are on-court things to nitpick with the Clippers, whether it's the lack of playmaking guards or a rebounding deficiency at the center position. But top to bottom, they have a fairly complete roster that is among the best in the league.
However, injury questions, which begin with the two best players on the roster, will nag at this team all season.
Paul George is set to miss at least the first 10 games of the campaign as he recuperates from offseason shoulder surgeries. He played through a partially torn rotator cuff at the end of last season and looked like a shell of the player who earned a third-place finish in the MVP voting.
Kawhi Leonard is likely to join him on the sideline at times this year.
Per the Los Angeles Times' Dan Woike, the Clippers are unlikely to rest Leonard as aggressively as the Toronto Raptors did. But he didn't participate in full-contact practices until early October, which suggests that while he may ostensibly be healthy, Los Angeles will still be extremely cautious with the reigning Finals MVP.
Secondary players like Patrick Beverley and Landry Shamet also have fairly lengthy injury histories, though both played full campaigns last season.
If the Clippers are healthy come playoff time, they should be considered the title favorites. But don't brush off that "if." It's a real worry for a franchise that has so often seemed cursed.
Los Angeles Lakers: The Other Guys
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LeBron James and Anthony Davis could become one of the best two-man combinations in modern NBA history. However, they are just that: two players.
As great as they are, they'll need an effective supporting cast to maximize the Lakers' chances of returning to glory. And on paper, that is still in question.
The third-best player for the Purple and Gold may be two-time NBA champion Danny Green, and he will play a vital role leading L.A.'s defense and effectively spacing the floor. But beyond the swingman, everything is up in the air.
Kyle Kuzma is out indefinitely with a stress reaction in his foot and is fairly one-dimensional when healthy. Avery Bradley is frequently injured, and it's tough to believe Rajon Rondo, JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard can be trustworthy and consistent contributors to the winning cause at this point in their careers.
It's possible James and Davis are good enough to transcend their teammates. But the former is nearing his 35th birthday, and the latter has been notably susceptible to nagging injuries, so they may require some help.
If Playoff Rondo can show up in October, if Bradley can stay healthy and in shape, if Kuzma can elevate his game on both ends of the floor and if Howard can finally adapt to the modern NBA, then the Lakers will solidify their spot in the title race. But until that happens, their ceiling this year is as volatile as any contending team's.
Milwaukee Bucks: Guard Play
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The Bucks won 60 games last year and mostly maintained roster continuity this offseason, especially compared to some of their counterparts in title contention. They're built to excel in the regular season and should have no problem claiming a top-two seed in the Eastern Conference for the second straight year.
It's those pesky late-spring months that might cause them problems once again.
On paper, the Bucks have constructed a perfect team around Giannis Antetokounmpo. He can drive to the basket and pass the ball out to a cadre of shooters if necessary.
But that strategy proved problematic against the Toronto Raptors in last year's Eastern Conference Finals when Antetokounmpo was stonewalled in the paint and several of his usual bail-out options went AWOL. Most notably, Eric Bledsoe was atrocious against the Raptors, shooting just 29.4 percent from the field and 17.2 percent from three.
And now, Bledsoe will be relied on even more, as former backcourt partner and steadying force Malcolm Brogdon has departed for the Indiana Pacers. Milwaukee's guards this year will be Bledsoe, George Hill, Pat Connaughton, Wesley Matthews and Kyle Korver, most of whom are easily exploited on defense and aren't shot-creators.
Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton could always take another step forward. But realistically, the reigning MVP can't actually get much better at basketball beyond improving as a shooter, and the 28-year-old Middleton likely is who he is skill-wise.
It's on this motley collection of guards to show up when it matters this April, May and (hopefully) June.
Philadelphia 76ers: Shooting
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The Philadelphia 76ers have arguably the best starting five in the NBA. It's massive, it's potentially game-wrecking on defense, and it also has a huge question to answer over the course of this year: Where will the shooting come from?
Though Philly successfully rebounded from losing Jimmy Butler and JJ Redick this summer by adding Josh Richardson and Al Horford, last year's starting lineup may have been even better, in part because of the spacing Butler and Redick provided.
Now, Philly is left with Joel Embiid (30.0 percent from three last year), Richardson (35.7 percent), Horford (36.0 percent), Tobias Harris (39.7 percent, but 32.6 percent with Philly) and Ben Simmons (still not a shooter despite preseason excitement). Those are average numbers at best. And though the Sixers will likely be an elite transition team, the lack of shooting will cramp their half-court scoring efficiency.
Of course, there are avenues through which this issue can be remedied.
If Simmons' made three-pointer is a sign of things to come, then he would be able to open up the offense significantly. He doesn't even have to be a good long-range shooter; he just has to be willing to take shots from beyond 15 feet so defenses at least respect the threat of a jumper.
Harris, Richardson and Horford could also benefit from more open shots on a star-studded team and might be more accurate from distance this year.
But if those developments don't take place, the blueprint to slow Philly down is obvious.
Utah Jazz: Donovan Mitchell
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The Utah Jazz are a lot like the Denver Nuggets.
They have a deep team with many sources of offense, but they need to lean on their stars to go far in the playoffs. We already discussed how Jamal Murray is Denver's X-factor, and Donovan Mitchell is his analog in Utah.
Make no mistake, Mitchell is far more accomplished than Murray. He's one of nine players ever to average 20 points per game over at least 10 playoff contests as a rookie. But he's still as streaky as they come.
Mitchell shot just 39.2 percent from the field over the first two months of his career and just 41.1 percent over the first three months of the 2018-19 season. And while that might suggest he's merely a slow starter, his inefficiency has reappeared in the playoffs, as he's shot a dreadful 34.0 percent from the field over Utah's last 10 postseason games.
Thankfully, Mitchell now has a better supporting cast to help shoulder the load.
Emmanuel Mudiay and Jeff Green are bench spark plugs, Bojan Bogdanovic is an excellent secondary scorer and playmaker, and Mike Conley remains one of the best players never to make an All-Star team. That quartet, combined with incumbents Rudy Gobert and Joe Ingles, will take pressure off Mitchell, though none of them will replace him.
When Utah needs offense in the last few minutes of a playoff game, it will still turn to Spida. But is he ready for that moment?
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, courtesy of Basketball Reference.
