NBA Power Rankings: Final Regular-Season Edition Entering 2019 Playoffs
For our final regular-season edition of NBA power rankings, we're still considering each team's record, advanced metrics and health. Though it may seem like all it should take to organize the 30 teams into an order reflective of the league's hierarchy is a glance at the standings, we know that's not true.
Some teams stumbled into the postseason, while others surged late to secure a seed. Even those in the lottery aren't necessarily as good or bad as their final record shows.
Recent play, then, still matters. Weighing the last few weeks against a team's full-season numbers is the only way to get an accurate picture of where each team ranks right now. And, as a point of clarification, this week's games barely matter at all because, with seeding largely decided, many teams rested their stars.
Just like that, the 2018-19 NBA regular season is over.
If you blinked, you missed it.
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Last week's ranking in parentheses.
30. New York Knicks (30)
It seemed like every other Mitchell Robinson highlight this year featured the swat-happy rookie blocking a three-point attempt. No surprise: He set the NBA record in that statistic.
The Knicks finished 2018-19 with the worst record and lowest offensive efficiency in the league. They spent more time at No. 30 in our rankings than any other team. But hey, at least they have a rookie center worth watching.
29. Cleveland Cavaliers (29)
It feels right that Cleveland surrendered 124 points to the Hornets in its final game of the season on Tuesday. That loss, the Cavs' 10th in a row, is exactly how you'd expect the team with the worst defensive rating in league history to go out.
On the plus side, Larry Nance Jr. quietly developed playmaking chops and a serviceable three-point shot this season. Even more encouraging, Collin Sexton dramatically altered his shot profile for the better over the final two months of the year, swapping out mid-rangers for threes and layups.
Finally, Cedi Osman leaves you with this: a strong metaphor for the Cavs' 2018-19 season.
28. Phoenix Suns (27)
You'll struggle to find a stranger stretch from 2018-19 than when the Suns beat the Bucks and Warriors six days apart in early March. That was a departure from Phoenix's broader M.O. this season, which was to lose. Often. And by a lot.
The Suns finished 29th in net rating, ahead of only the Cavs, and secured a win total in the teens for the first time since the franchise's inaugural season in 1968-69.
Jamal Crawford, however, proved a long year in Phoenix hadn't sapped his bucket-getting prowess—finishing the Suns' season-closing 120-109 loss to the Mavs with 51 points.
27. Chicago Bulls (26)
The Bulls won just 22 games, finished 29th on offense, 25th on defense and tied for the league low with only nine home victories all year. That represented a new franchise low.
With a high lottery pick coming and returns to health for Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr., 2019-20 looks promising. Chicago needs to add a point guard to grow with its young core and find ways to generate consistent offense. Three years in, Kris Dunn appears to be more of a capable backup going forward.
26. New Orleans Pelicans (28)
Jahlil Okafor closed out the Pelicans' season with 30 points in a 112-103 loss to the Warriors on Tuesday, finishing one short of the career high he set in 2016. Few probably noticed, as everyone's attention was on Anthony Davis' shirt.
New Orleans wrapped its season up with a 33-49 record and the No. 23 defense in the NBA. Only the Knicks won fewer games after the All-Star break.
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25. Los Angeles Lakers (24)
Team president Magic Johnson capped off a chaotic year by stepping down from his position in an impromptu press conference ahead the Lakers' final game of the season on Tuesday. His announcement came before he'd informed team owner Jeanie Buss and after a Saturday meeting with LeBron James in which he gave no indication of his intention to resign, according to Ohm Youngmisuk and Dave McMenamin of ESPN.
The Lakers concluded one of the more disappointing years in recent memory with their franchise-record sixth consecutive playoff miss. They beat playoff-bound opponents on consecutive nights just once all year, this past week, as they downed the Clippers and Jazz on Friday and Sunday.
A massive offseason looms, as does the possibility of a talent infusion via trade or free agency. But it's never been harder to believe there's a coherent plan in place to clean up this mess.
24. Washington Wizards (25)
Washington dropped 10 of its final 12 games to finish with 50 losses on the season. Getting stops was a problem all year, as the Wizards finished among the bottom five in defensive efficiency.
Bradley Beal took a step forward as a do-it-all force on offense after John Wall went down for the season in December. He finished his second straight campaign without missing a single game and was one of just five players—joining Stephen Curry, James Harden, Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo—to average at least 25 points, five rebounds and five assists.
23. Dallas Mavericks (23)
Past and future collided on Tuesday in Dallas, as the Mavs feted Dirk Nowitzki, who finished with a season-high 30 points, while Luka Doncic logged the eighth triple-double of his rookie season.
As transitional seasons go, the Mavericks couldn't have asked for much more. Nowitzki completed his farewell tour as Doncic stepped into the spotlight, assuring the franchise of a worthy torch-bearer for its next era. This will be the first time since the '90s that Dallas will go two straight years without a playoff trip, but it's hard to be pessimistic with Doncic ready to take charge.
22. Minnesota Timberwolves (21)
The Jimmy Butler saga got the Wolves' season off to a dysfunctional start, but Tom Thibodeau's January ouster may have paved the way for a calmer future. ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reports Minnesota will keep general manager Scott Layden and head coach Ryan Saunders.
The Timberwolves fell 11 victories short of last year's 47, but for the 763 minutes in which they had Robert Covington healthy enough to anchor the defense, they produced a plus-3.0 net rating and defended at a top-three clip. That, coupled with Karl-Anthony Towns' stellar offensive performance, gives Minnesota a chance to improve substantially next year.
21. Memphis Grizzlies (22)
Delon Wright became the first player in Grizzlies history to record consecutive triple-doubles this week, and his late-season production was emblematic of a team that got contributions from a wide variety of sources.
The Grizz used 28 different players this season, which tied an NBA record. Despite shuttling bodies in and out of the lineup, Memphis still finished tied for ninth in defensive efficiency. With a full season from rookie standout Jaren Jackson Jr. next year, that ranking could get even better.
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20. Atlanta Hawks (17)
Trae Young shouldn't win Rookie of the Year over Luka Doncic because the former's dreadful start still factors into the decision. Also: Young was the worst defender in the NBA this year, according to ESPN's DRPM.
But if there were an award for the second half of a rookie season, Young would win it. His development into a high-efficiency deep threat with the vision and moxie to engineer solid scoring all by himself was key to Atlanta's strong finish.
The Hawks ranked 25th in offense before the All-Star break but were just a few decimal points outside the top 10 afterward. That's progress, and there's going to be a lot more of it in Atlanta over the next several years.
19. Charlotte Hornets (20)
As Kemba Walker ran himself ragged trying to sneak the Hornets into the playoffs, Nic Batum stopped doing anything at all, becoming a statue in the corner who didn't attack, shoot or facilitate. Not ideal for a dude set to collect over $52 million through 2021.
Ultimately, Walker's 43 points in Wednesday's loss to the Magic were for naught. The Hornets, 39-43, finished two games behind eighth-place Detroit and now face the possibility of losing Walker in free agency. They could also pay him a max salary that would extend through his early 30s, and it's hard to say which scenario would be worse for the franchise.
18. Sacramento Kings (19)
The Kings concluded their most successful season in more than a decade with 39 wins and a clear uptempo identity. De'Aaron Fox took a leap, Buddy Hield became the first player to hit 600 threes over his first three seasons and Marvin Bagley III showed flashes of being an offensive star. That's to say nothing of Harry Giles III staying healthy all year and displaying signs of a starting-caliber (at least) two-way game.
Unfortunately, the day after finishing a year with so many positives, familiar unrest returned with the firing of head coach Dave Joerger—executed by a newly extended and increasingly powerful Vlade Divac. Joerger doesn't have the best record as a relationship-builder, and there were reports all season of locker room and front office tension. So even in the wake of a breakthrough campaign, there's some sense to moving on from Joerger.
The Kings need to get their next hire right. A roster this promising means there are real stakes now.
17. Detroit Pistons (16)
Blake Griffin (sore knee) returned from a three-game absence and did everything he could to reverse the Pistons' downward momentum, scoring 45 points and drilling a season-high nine threes. But Detroit fell to Oklahoma City 123-110 on Friday anyway.
It was Ish Smith who led Tuesday's rally from a 22-point deficit against the Grizzlies, producing a 100-93 win with Griffin hobbled and distraught on the sideline.
The Pistons squeaked into the playoffs on the final day of the season, but Griffin's compromised health means they're probably the least dangerous team in the field.
16. Miami Heat (15)
Dwyane Wade scored 30 points in his final home game on Tuesday, a 122-99 win over the load-managing Sixers, then dropped a triple-double to close out a surefire Hall of Fame career—with the banana boat crew courtside to watch.
The Heat fell two games shy of a playoff berth, but Josh Richardson solidified his position as one of the league's top perimeter stoppers, and the team finished seventh overall in defensive efficiency. If they'd made the playoffs, they would have posed a greater upset threat than Detroit will.
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15. Brooklyn Nets (18)
Will playoff opponents employ switching schemes that negate D'Angelo Russell's skills as a pick-and-roll scorer? Can a Nets offense that likes its mid-rangers a little too much and ranked 22nd in field-goal percentage at the rim generate enough high-value looks to do any damage against postseason defenses?
The answer for now is: Who cares?
Brooklyn is back in the dance, having built a roster with real long-term promise despite not controlling its own first-rounders since 2013.
The Nets closed out their unexpectedly terrific 2018-19 season with three straight wins to reach 42 in all, 14 more than they managed last year.
14. Indiana Pacers (13)
Indiana went 10-14 with the No. 17 net rating after the All-Star break, relying heavily on a stout defense to reach the playoffs as the fifth seed in the East.
That defense, anchored by Myles Turner, should hold up in postseason play. But unless the Pacers make the absolute most of their limited chances from deep (they ranked 29th in three-point attempt rate), points will be tough to come by.
Indy's first-round matchup with the unsteady Celtics will be a popular upset pick, but the talent disparity between these two teams is immense. It'll take a fantastic collective effort from a gritty Pacers squad to advance.
13. Orlando Magic (14)
The Magic punched their ticket to the playoffs with Sunday's 116-108 victory in Boston, completing a second-half push that makes their season-long mediocrity somewhat deceiving.
Since Jan. 31, Orlando is first in defensive efficiency and fourth in net rating. Basically, once opponents stopped hitting every three they took, the Magic's defensive profile improved and the wins piled up. They may not have the offensive punch to make a first-round upset likely, but the Magic's firmly established defensive identity gives them something to build on going forward.
12. Los Angeles Clippers (8)
The Clippers had the No. 17 defense after the All-Star break, the lowest of any West playoff team and just narrowly ahead of the Pacers in that timeframe. Pitted against a Warriors team that just set the all-time record for scoring efficiency in a season, L.A.'s regular-season strategy to simply outscore their opponent doesn't seem ideal.
The Clips traded their best player at the deadline and still won 48 games in a transitional season. They're going to get smoked in the first round, but 2018-19 will still count as an unequivocal success.
11. Oklahoma City Thunder (12)
OKC climbed out of a 14-point fourth-quarter hole to beat the Rockets on Paul George's game-winning three Tuesday. That 112-111 victory, combined with Wednesday's defeat of the resting Bucks, secured the No. 6 spot in the West and a date with Portland in the first round.
The Thunder, suspect on offense all season and under .500 since the All-Star break, looked extremely shaky after a hot start. But at least they finished on a high note, winning five straight to close with a 49-33 record.
If OKC can summon its former defensive prowess and get hot shooting from George, there's a realistic path open to the conference finals. Unfortunately, we've seen neither of those things for a couple of months.
10. San Antonio Spurs
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Last Week: 11
The Spurs won their final three games of the season to secure the seventh seed and a first-round date with Denver. We've seen San Antonio perform like the best offense in the league for a month and then suddenly morph into a defensive dynamo, and it's worth wondering if perhaps both extremes might converge in a series against the inexperienced Nuggets.
The best two-way version of San Antonio could be extremely dangerous.
In a strange way, the Spurs' mid-range affinity could work well in the playoffs. No team bucked the shot-profile trend harder than San Antonio, which finished the year last in attempt frequency at the rim and from deep. Modern defenses are generally built to prevent the types of shots San Antonio doesn't want to take in the first place. At the very least, it could take opponents some time to adjust their defensive principles.
Unfortunately for the Spurs' terrific bench, which ranked fourth in the league in net plus-minus, postseasons tend to depend more on the performance of starters and stars.
9. Portland Trail Blazers
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Last Week: 9
The Blazers won't have Jusuf Nurkic in the playoffs, but at least they got CJ McCollum back. The shooting guard, out since March 16 with a knee strain, returned to score nine points in Sunday's 115-108 win against Denver. He's a critical part of an offense that finished the year ranked third in scoring efficiency.
Whatever happens in the postseason, the Blazers (and Damian Lillard in particular) deserve credit for holding strong when injuries hit. The losses of Nurkic and McCollum should have sent Portland tumbling down the standings, but the team went 4-1 in the five games both players missed down the stretch.
The Trail Blazers ranked in the top 10 in defensive rebound rate and opponent field-goal percentage at the rim this year. Whether they can carry those strengths into the playoffs without Nurkic will determine how long they last.
Finally, Moe Harkless contributed his part to Lakers schaudenfreude, ending L.A.'s season with a game-winning dagger. The corner three gave the Blazers a 104-101 win and clinched home-court advantage in the first round.
8. Boston Celtics
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Last Week: 10
With the fourth seed and home-court advantage in the first round sewn up, the Celtics sat just about everyone in their regular-season finale against Washington on Tuesday. Marcus Smart and Jayson Tatum might have been scratched anyway, as both suffered injuries that knocked them out of action during Sunday's loss to Orlando.
While Tatum is progressing fine, the news on Smart is more dire. According to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, Boston's best perimeter defender has a torn oblique and could miss the first two rounds of the playoffs.
The Celtics, and Kyrie Irving in particular, spent a great deal of time downplaying their season's struggles as inconsequential. Boston's inconsistent defense and fragile chemistry weren't causes for concern because the playoffs were all that really mattered—or so the thinking went.
Those of us that wrung our hands over a net rating that dipped into negative territory after the All-Star break weren't as confident in Boston's capacity for switch-flipping. We'll soon see whose assessment was more accurate.
One thing everyone can agree on: Gordon Hayward's late-season improvement bodes well. He's been more aggressive and explosive over the last month than at any point in the season. If he's close to regaining his All-Star form, Boston's postseason outlook improves a ton—even with Smart sidelined.
7. Philadelphia 76ers
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Last Week: 7
The Sixers have been locked into the East's No. 3 spot for weeks now, so it's difficult to judge their stumble down the stretch. If they'd had more at stake, would Joel Embiid have spent so much time resting a sore knee?
Would we have seen Jimmy Butler play like the defensive stopper he's been in the past?
Would the new starting five, which only appeared in 10 games together, have gotten a few more valuable reps?
Caution made sense, but the Sixers now head into the playoffs with a few more question marks than they might have otherwise had. Embiid missed 14 of a possible 24 games after the All-Star break, and the Sixers' net rating during that stretch was a pedestrian plus-0.4.
Though the starting five was dominant in its time together, producing a plus-17.6 net rating, JJ Redick still gives opposing offenses a target to attack, and the Sixers never quite solved their defensive issues against top-end pick-and-roll ball-handlers.
The talent here is overwhelming, but there's reason for some skepticism ahead of a franchise-defining postseason—especially with the possibility of Embiid missing more time.
6. Denver Nuggets
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Last Week: 6
Denver went 3-6 against playoff-bound West opponents after March 1, and its vaunted offense, which ranked seventh overall, tied for 20th in that same span. That's not the biggest sample, but it came down the stretch during a period critical to seeding, and it helps validate concerns that the Nuggets might not be ready for high-stakes play just yet.
Fortunately for Denver, its No. 2 seed assures home-court advantage through the conference finals. A league-best 34-7 mark on their home floor means the Nuggets can probably afford to lose a road game or two due to playoff-debut jitters.
Gary Harris and Will Barton never really hit their strides this season, due largely to injuries. If they summon their best selves in the playoffs, the Nuggets can play with anybody. Paul Millsap will preserve the defensive integrity of a unit that finished a respectable 10th on that end.
5. Utah Jazz
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Last Week: 4
Utah ranked first in defense and third in net rating after Jan. 1, creating a sample of dominant play too large to dismiss.
Not only that, but the Jazz's net rating on the year, excluding garbage time, should have yielded them a league-best 7.8 more wins than they ultimately collected, according to Cleaning the Glass.
It's reasonable to wonder how Rudy Gobert will sustain his defensive dominance when the opponent's playoff game plan drags him out into space on every possession. And while there's room for skepticism about Utah's ability to create enough good looks against postseason defenses (again), this team's regular-season excellence is undeniable.
It's been a long time since we saw a fifth seed in the West as dangerous as the Jazz.
4. Toronto Raptors
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Last Week: 5
The Raptors wrapped with 58 wins after closing the year on a 7-1 run. Though they fell one shy of last season's franchise-best total, there's little doubt this is the most dangerous club in team history.
Marc Gasol's addition juiced the offense, spiking Toronto's assist percentage and pulling two disparate attacks—the Raps played one way with Kawhi Leonard on the floor and another without him—into a more unified whole.
Other than Milwaukee, no team was steadier from October to April, as the Raptors concluded the year with just one losing streak of three games or more. They also strung together six runs of four wins or more, finishing fifth in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
This is a weakness-free outfit led by a superstar who might have been holding back during the regular season. Leonard's defense wasn't quite as smothering as usual, and that could change in the playoffs. As a consolation, he produced the highest scoring average of his career this season, overwhelming opposing wings with a bully-ball isolation game that led to his fourth season shooting over 70 percent at the rim in the last five years.
3. Houston Rockets
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Last Week: 3
The league leader in wins and net rating since March 1, the Rockets head into the postseason as hot as anybody.
Houston's only home loss after the All-Star break came against the Warriors on March 13, and it could get a chance to avenge that defeat as soon as the conference semifinals.
One potential point of concern: The James Harden-Chris Paul-Clint Capela trio wasn't nearly as dominant this year as it was in 2017-18. Last season, those three produced a plus-12.1 net rating when sharing the floor. This year, they managed just a plus-5.2—still a fine number, but nowhere near the high bar they set a season ago. With rotations sure to shorten in the playoffs, that group's importance will only increase.
Houston, led by an all-timer of a takeover run from Harden, roared back from an 11-14 record in December. It'll be fascinating to see the tactics defenses employ to slow Harden down in the playoffs, but if we've learned anything this year, it's that no strategy can keep Harden under control for long.
2. Milwaukee Bucks
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Last Week: 2
Giannis Antetokounmpo should win MVP, and the Bucks' overall statistical resume is unquestionably the best in the 2018-19 regular season. They just completed one of the 20 best average margins of victory ever recorded. They finished in the top three on offense and defense which, based on historical precedent, means a title is a foregone conclusion.
Two obstacles prevent them from finishing the season atop our rankings.
Health is the first, as Milwaukee saw virtually its entire rotation miss time over the past couple of weeks. Antetokounmpo is working through calf and ankle injuries. Malcolm Brogdon probably won't be back from a torn plantar fascia until the second round, and his effectiveness after over a month off isn't certain. Nikola Mirotic is still out, and Tony Snell hasn't played since March 24 because of a sore ankle. Those guys matter.
The second reason should be familiar. It's a creeping sense that another team has been holding out on us all year, biding its time, waiting until the games matter enough to engage "full go" mode.
If the Bucks weren't dinged up, it'd be tempting to close the year with a tie at the top. But they are, and there's also the small matter of a dynastic superpower that's about to start trying on a regular basis.
1. Golden State Warriors
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Last Week: 1
The Warriors head into the postseason healthier*, hotter and in possession of an extra gear nobody's sure Milwaukee has. If anything, the concerns surrounding the Bucks cut the other way; it's possible their scheme-influenced regular-season dominance is as good as it gets, and that playoff opponents will have the time they need to develop better counter measures than we saw during the year.
Golden State did its share of coasting, but the metrics that matter suggest it's still the league's best team when it wants to be. The Dubs defended at a rate that would rank first in the league whenever Draymond Green was on the floor. When Green shared the court with Andre Iguodala, which he will in every postseason minute that matters, the Warriors' defensive rating is a whopping 5.3 points per 100 possessions stingier than Milwaukee's overall league-leading figure.
And even with their typical bouts of turnover-itis and lackadaisical play, the Warriors still topped the NBA in offensive efficiency.
Oh, and Stephen Curry can see now. He caught fire from deep after wearing contact lenses in a game for the first time on March 24, and meanwhile, Kevin Durant is thriving in a more pass-happy role. Quietly, KD set a career high in assists per game this season, with 5.9.
That all seems like a bad sign for playoff defenses.
* Keep a very close eye on Curry's right ankle, which he sprained on Tuesday. It doesn't appear serious, but everyone knows a hobbled Steph would be a problem.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Cleaning the Glass and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted. Accurate through games played Thursday, April 11.
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