Bold 2026 NBA Free Agency Predictions for LeBron James, James Harden and Other Stars
From the B/R list of top potential free agents this summer, where will the best available players land?
Extensions have become more commonplace, and the league loosened trade rules for under-apron teams, diminishing the power of free agency.
Only three teams project to have significant room under the salary cap in July, and while other franchises may trade into space to join the Los Angeles Lakers, Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets, most of the big-name players will ultimately re-sign with their current clubs.
Among our 10 predictions, the LeBron James era in L.A. with the Lakers comes to an end...
Trae Young
1 of 10
It wasn't surprising that the Atlanta Hawks were looking to trade Young, but the Washington Wizards seemingly came out of nowhere to add the veteran point guard.
The Wizards followed that up with a move for Anthony Davis and lucked into the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft. The tanking is over in Washington, and Young is likely to stick around beyond the coming season.
Instead of earning $49 million, Young is expected to opt out and sign a contract that gives Washington more flexibility while still locking in a healthy raise. The Wizards could offer a four- or five-year deal, but a three-year agreement seems like a reasonable compromise.
Prediction: Young opts out of his $49 million. The Wizards re-sign him at $105.4 million over three years, starting at $32.5 million.
Peyton Watson
2 of 10
The Denver Nuggets have Watson's restricted rights, putting the team in the sole position to decide his fate.
Other teams like the Los Angeles Lakers, Brooklyn Nets, or Chicago Bulls could make a run at Watson with an offer sheet, but the Nuggets have the right to match.
To afford Watson, while avoiding second-apron penalties, look for Denver to trade Cam Johnson and/or Christian Braun this summer. That could enable the team to keep Jonas Valančiūnas at $10 million (with only $2 million guaranteed), while giving Watson a significant raise.
Prediction: Nuggets re-sign Watson at $145 million over five years, starting at $25 million.
Keon Ellis
3 of 10
To keep Peyton Watson in Denver with the Nuggets, the team finds a suitor in trade for Cam Johnson and/or Christian Braun. Jonas Valančiūnas may need to be waived and stretched at $667,000 for three years, rather than receiving his full $10 million from the Nuggets.
The team would need a backup center behind Nikola Jokić, but, per NBA sources, a priority for Denver is a point-of-attack defender in the backcourt. Ellis was solid in that role for the Sacramento Kings before being traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have apron issues and may struggle to fit him into their plans.
Ellis shot extremely well from three-point range from 2023 to 2025 for the Kings. Playing off of Jokić, those numbers should spike back up above 40 percent after hitting 35.5 percent through 29 games with the Cavaliers.
The Los Angeles Lakers could offer more, but the team may need to focus its resources elsewhere, especially if it retains Austin Reaves, Marcus Smart, and Luke Kennard around Luka Dončić.
Prediction: Nuggets sign Ellis at $12.4 million over two years, starting at $6.1 million, player option on the second season.
Ayo Dosunmu
4 of 10
The Minnesota Timberwolves made a trade deadline acquisition from the Chicago Bulls, adding Dosunmu to bolster the backcourt.
When Donte DiVincenzo went down with an Achilles injury that will keep him out most or all of 2026-27, Dosunmu stepped into a larger role with a stunning 43-point performance to help get Minnesota past the Denver Nuggets.
Fresh off those heroics, Dosunmu must cash in financially this summer, but only the Los Angeles Lakers and Brooklyn Nets have enough to offer, unless the Bulls decide to bring him back. If he gets a better offer, he may leave Minnesota, and that's a real possibility.
Still, the more likely path has him back in Minnesota. The team can offer a player-friendly contract with a player option, trade bonus, etc., to offset the best starting salary they can offer while fielding a 14-man roster below the second apron.
Alternatively, the Wolves could shop DiVincenzo's contract plus their No. 28 pick or Joan Beringer, perhaps to Brooklyn, to pay Dosunmu a higher rate, while adding access to the taxpayer mid-level exception at $6.1 million.
The reality for Minnesota, with DiVincenzo injured, is that the team cannot afford to lose Dosunmu if the goal remains competing at the highest level.
Prediction: Timberwolves re-sign Dosunmu at $85.2 million over four years, starting at $19.5 million, with a player option on the final season and a 15 percent trade bonus
CJ McCollum
5 of 10
McCollum was an early playoff hero for the Atlanta Hawks until the New York Knicks embarked on a dominant run that culminated in an NBA Finals berth.
McCollum, 35 in September, doesn't fit the age of Atlanta's core, but he's an experienced veteran scorer who fills a vital role. The Hawks defend well while getting playmaking throughout the starting group, especially Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels.
Long-term needs will be addressed at No. 8 and No. 23 in the draft, presumably with guard and center support. The Hawks can pay McCollum and use their non-taxpayer mid-level exception near-$15 million to chase a starting-caliber center, perhaps Deandre Ayton.
The Hawks have the means to trade, which could reshuffle their needs, but McCollum on a short-term, lucrative deal makes sense for both sides.
Prediction: Hawks re-sign McCollum at $40 million over two years with a team option, starting at $20 million.
Coby White
6 of 10
The Charlotte Hornets originally sent three second-round picks to the Chicago Bulls for White. That was reduced to two with White initially dealing with a calf injury, but the Hornets added the scorer for a reason.
Through 21 games in Charlotte, White averaged 15.6 points per game, shooting a strong 39.1 percent from three. He was the hero in the team's first play-in game against the Miami Heat, but the Hornets fell short in their final game against the Orlando Magic.
Charlotte has languished in obscurity for several years. The franchise is building something fun to watch, and with White back, two first-round picks (Nos. 14 and 18), and good health, it should return to the playoffs this coming season.
Prediction: Hornets re-sign White at $70 million over three years, starting at $21.5 million
Jalen Duren
7 of 10
It's easy to get down on Duren for his postseason numbers. The Detroit Pistons faced two seven-game series this postseason, falling to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Through 14 games, Duren averaged 10.2 points on 51.4 percent shooting, significantly lower than his 19.5 points at 65 percent over the regular season.
Still, Duren was a first-time All-Star and earned All-NBA Third Team honors. He'll turn 23 in November and will grow from the difficult times he had through the postseason. The Pistons could lose him to the Lakers or Bulls via offer sheet, but that's a significant step back for the franchise.
Instead, look for a healthy contract below the max that is enough for Duren to risk turning down. Unless the Lakers, Bulls, or Nets make a max offer, the Pistons should find a number that works for both sides.
Prediction: Pistons re-sign Duren at $200 million over five years, starting at $34.5 million.
James Harden
8 of 10
Harden needed to approve the pre-deadline trade from the LA Clippers to the Cleveland Cavaliers after re-signing with the Clippers for one season with a player option. While prearranged deals aren't technically legal, teams and players often have working understandings.
Harden's $42.3 million player option for 2026-27 has only $13.3 million guaranteed. Instead, he'll opt out to re-sign at a lower number on a multi-year deal. Cleveland should be able to navigate below the second apron while retaining the veteran guard.
While the Cavaliers were exposed against the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals, don't lose sight of how strong the franchise was since acquiring Harden, and that this was the team's best postseason performance since LeBron James left for the Los Angeles Lakers.
Prediction: Harden opts out of his $42.3 million. The Cavaliers re-sign him at $66.6 million over two years, starting at $32.5 million.
Austin Reaves
9 of 10
Reaves could be a flight risk for the Los Angeles Lakers, specifically if the Nets or the Bulls make substantial offers.
If not, the Lakers have the leverage to find a compromise number that is too much for Reaves to turn down, while providing L.A. with additional flexibility to build around Luka Dončić.
Reaves' contract can start at a $41.3 million max deal. Other teams can only offer up to four years with five percent raises for a total of $177.4 million. The Lakers can pay for five years with eight percent raises, but $239.3 million is higher than the franchise would like.
The compromise number would come in just below what he might earn elsewhere. If Reaves receives a massive offer sheet, he will have to consider it, which could pressure the Lakers to increase their bid.
Prediction: Lakers re-sign Reaves at $156.8 million over four years, starting at $35 million.
LeBron James
10 of 10
The Los Angeles Lakers face a significant decision with James. Even as he nears 42, he continues to be one of the most powerful players in the association.
Still, building properly long-term around Dončić is the priority. The Lakers have high hopes to take a step forward this summer, and that's without James. If their plans fail, that could lead to one more season with the future Hall of Famer.
Meanwhile, Steve Kerr agreed to continue coaching the Golden State Warriors. Steph Curry will get an extension with the franchise, focusing on the short-term run with Jimmy Butler, who should be healthy from a knee injury well before the All-Star break, Draymond Green, and Kristaps Porziņģis.
James doesn't make sense for room teams like the Chicago Bulls or Brooklyn Nets. A sign-and-trade from the Lakers would require a three-year deal and trigger apron restrictions. The chance to finish his career in Golden State with Curry will be James' path forward.
The next question would be, can the Warriors get the Lakers to send them Bronny James in trade?
Prediction: Warriors sign James at $30.8 million over two years with a player option, starting at the $15 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception. Bonus: Porziņģis re-signs on a two-year contract with a player option. The amount depends on player movement, as low as $7.5 million in the first year to fit within the Warriors' means.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X/Twitter @EricPincus.
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