Where Fans Should Want Superstar Free Agents to Land Among Top Destinations
Ever wonder whether the most popular destinations for the NBA's top free agents align with where you should want them to go?
If so, congratulations! You're in the right place.
This is not an ode to cool-points landing spots. Some superstar should definitely have the gall to join the upstart Atlanta Hawks, but we're not in the business of reinventing offseason trends.
Potential destinations are chosen with cap sheets in mind. There will be no push for sign-and-trades here. Landing spots are also picked without taking the incumbent fanbase into consideration. We cannot expect Boston Celtics fans, for example, to root for Kyrie Irving's departure.
That doesn't mean we'll cheer for every superstar to find new digs. We won't. This is strictly about balancing what's possible with what would be the most entertaining and meaningful outcome.
Don't Bother Going Here
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DeMarcus Cousins, Golden State Warriors
DeMarcus Cousins is leaving the Warriors if he has any sort of market. They don't own his Bird rights and won't have cap space to work with even if Kevin Durant leaves. The most they can pay him in 2019-20 is $6.4 million—unless they find a way to open the non-taxpayer's mid-level exception ($9.2 million).
Placing him among all the other superstars goes a touch too far. He's playing more minutes of late, but he's not yet 30 games into his return from a ruptured Achilles injury or being used like a franchise lifeline.
This season is about staying on the floor. His next stop will determine where he belongs in the NBA's player hierarchy.
Landing Spot Worth Rooting For: Los Angeles Lakers
Al Horford, Boston Celtics (player option)
Turning down a $30.1 million player option isn't in Al Horford's best immediate interests. He turns 33 in June and isn't matching that annual value on another deal.
Hitting free agency in search of a longer contract that pays him more over the big picture is in play. But he probably only does that if he's re-signing with the Celtics. Their title window has to suffer major hits—plural—for him to find a better situation. Kyrie Irving's departure alone doesn't qualify.
In the incredibly unlikely event he does head elsewhere, the Los Angeles Clippers are super intriguing. They have the flexibility to sign one of the top five or six names and work out a sub-max multiyear deal for him without offloading Danilo Gallinari.
Shoot, even if Los Angeles treats him as a consolation prize after striking out on every other marquee talent, the fit is almost perfect. The Clippers play without ego or entitlement, just like him, and he's the rare big who can, if head coach Doc Rivers wants, log time beside Montrezl Harrell.
Buuut if he did leave: Los Angeles Clippers
Notable Exclusions: Marc Gasol (player option), Tobias Harris, Khris Middleton (player option), Kristaps Porzingis (restricted), D'Angelo Russell (restricted), Nikola Vucevic
Jimmy Butler (Player Option): Los Angeles Lakers
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Some fans would revel in the Lakers signing no one. Let's not be those people.
Team president Magic Johnson and general manager Rob Pelinka deserve to take their lumps. They did not surround LeBron James with the usual dose of shooting, instead opting for, ah, what's the word—oh, yeah, playmakers.
Surprise, surprise: It didn't work. The Lakers will miss the playoffs and have successfully junked a year of LeBron's prime.
They've also nuked their appeal to free agents.
"The Lakers need to project stability going into yet another critical offseason if they hope to attract a second superstar to pair with James," The Athletic's Bill Oram wrote. "After Paul George ignored the Lakers last summer, most league insiders believe the biggest names in this year's loaded class of free agents will follow his lead."
This might come off as an exaggeration if it didn't track so damn well. Pore over the list of this summer's top free agents, and the Lakers don't feel like quasi-favorites for anyone. Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard are long shots. Klay Thompson isn't happening. Reuniting Kyrie Irving with James would be objectively hysterical, but actively cheering for it bends the boundaries of plausibility.
Even Jimmy Butler comes off as a little ambitious. The Lakers are expected to give him chase, per the New York Times' Marc Stein, but he wasn't interested in joining forces with James as of October, according to The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor.
Los Angeles basically needs to hope that Butler tires of the truncated pecking order with the Philadelphia 76ers. That's...not exactly foolproof. Butler has found his groove after a feeling-out process. He is third on the team in usage rate since the Tobias Harris trade—and second during crunch time.
For the sake of seeing LeBron play basketball beyond the first round before he begins his 2022 farewell tour in Cleveland, we should hope something changes. The Lakers need a star, and Butler, relative to pretty much everyone else, is more gettable. And admit it: You want to see how he reacts to James' regular-season defense.
Runner-up: Philadelphia 76ers
Kevin Durant (Player Option): New York Knicks
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Forgive the absence of creativity here. The Kevin Durant-to-New York noise is so loud it feels inevitable.
"Let us be frank, with the caveat that the choice lives inside the head of one guy who can and does change his mind: Insiders around the league think Kevin Durant is leaving the Warriors for the Knicks," The Athletic's Ethan Strauss wrote back in February. "Most people within the Warriors either think Durant is leaving or profess not to know one way or the other."
Soon after that piece went live, Durant ended an extended media reprieve by going in on reporters and, unprompted, mentioning the Knicks and the Kristaps Porzingis trade.
Players are people, too. Frustrations boil over during the course of a regular season, and Durant is under a more magnified microscope than most. The speculation surrounding his future is exhaustive and, for someone who perhaps hasn't even made up his mind yet, flat-out annoying.
Wish upon a star for Durant to join the Knicks anyway. The NBA is a more interesting place when The Mecca has a championship contender, and the subsequent maneuvering involved is bound to make for great bar-stool debates.
Might another star follow Durant to New York? How would he handle playing on a team chock-full of youngsters and unknowns? Does his arrival force them to make all-in moves, or could he have the patience LeBron James pretended to have upon returning to Cleveland and joining Los Angeles?
More than anything, though, we have the receipts. Think of the content that invariably follows Durant joining the Knicks after saying he has, well, "nothing to do with the Knicks."
Fibbing, lying, deflecting or whatever you want to call it is his prerogative and right. Meme-ing his hypocrisy would be ours.
Runner-up: Brooklyn Nets
Kyrie Irving (Player Option): New York Knicks
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Don't root for Kyrie Irving to join the Knicks because of the Knicks. The franchise has not done anything to deserve one, let alone two, superstar free agents. The development of their own players is largely unimpressive, and any brights spots they've had usually end up falling by the wayside amid inconsistent visions and half-hatched plans.
This isn't even about Knicks fans, who have absolutely waited long enough to cheer on a watchable basketball team. No, this is about convenience.
The NBA needs another superteam-type threat—not a rebranded version of an entrenched megapower, but a fresh one. These from-scratch coups make the offseason more fun and the 24/7/365 rumor mill worthwhile, and New York is better positioned than anyone to create the next fad contender.
Waiving Lance Thomas and renouncing restricted free agents Luke Kornet and Emmanuel Mudiay leaves the Knicks with almost $68 million in cap space if they win the draft lottery. That's a hair below the $70.9 million needed to sign Irving and Kevin Durant. They can make up the rest by offloading some combination Damyean Dotson (non-guaranteed), Frank Ntilikina and Allonzo Trier (team option), or by tumbling far enough down the draft order.
No other offseason buyer is that close to dual maxes. The Clippers are the biggest threat, and they'll need to move Danilo Gallinari or Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams to make it happen.
Durant and Irving turn New York into an automatic Eastern Conference contender, almost regardless of who's around them. But more fireworks would have to follow.
Anthony Davis turns into a realistic trade target if the Knicks own the No. 1 pick and are assured of Durant's and Irving's arrivals. They'll have the asset ammo to chase other names if that scenario doesn't pan out. Maybe Durant and Irving are even open to the possibility of teaming up with Zion Williamson.
If nothing else, it'd be nice for Madison Square Garden to once again host relevant NBA games—and to see how nothing-to-do-with-the-Knicks Durant and ask-me-July-1 Irving handle the New York media.
Runner-up: Los Angeles Lakers
Kawhi Leonard (Player Option): Toronto Raptors
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Kawhi Leonard is the closest we can come to ignoring the most plausible scenarios. He doesn't seem like the type to place defining stock in market size and sway.
Sure, he's believed to have eyes for the Clippers, per Stein. And his exit from San Antonio suggests he lusts for a certain level of clout. But if any superstar free agent is going to throw a curveball, it'd be him.
Imagine him taking a meeting with the Atlanta Hawks and joining John Collins, Trae Young and potentially two top-six prospects. Or teaming up with Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert in Utah. Or committing the next three to four years of his career to Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis in Dallas.
Hashtag, amazing.
But we have to maintain a certain degree of realism. Many will even view Leonard staying with the Toronto Raptors as its own pipe dream. It isn't.
Sources told TSN's Josh Lewenberg that "behind the scenes, many Toronto Raptors officials have become increasingly confident in the team's chances of re-signing Kawhi Leonard this summer." Contending for a title can have that effect.
Fans outside of Toronto—and, obviously, Los Angeles—should be on board with Leonard's return. It keeps an Eastern Conference power intact at a time when others might break up in some form. Kyrie Irving could leave the Celtics. Jimmy Butler and/or Tobias Harris could leave the Sixers.
Plus, Leonard's return is in the best interests of chaos on the superstar trade market. Paul George already re-signed with a team that wasn't on his original wish list. If Leonard does the same, more squads should be inclined to roll the dice on players not considered long for their city.
Picture what that might mean for the Anthony Davis sweepstakes alone.
Runner-up: Los Angeles Clippers
Klay Thompson: Golden State Warriors
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Lame? Maybe. But rooting for Klay Thompson to leave the Warriors is a losing battle.
Golden State expects him to re-sign, as Strauss noted in January. And Thompson told ESPN in February, unsolicited, that he wants to retire with the Warriors.
Going against the grain is fun. Thompson is an ideal addition for the plucky Clippers. Everyone should sign up to watch him play beside Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis in Dallas or next to More Aggressive Steve Nash in Atlanta. It'd also be cool to see him go off the beaten path, to a team that's more likely use him as a No. 1 option.
Still, resisting his inevitable return to the Warriors is futile. We might as well lean into it.
Next season's circumstances make this easy. Durant's expected departure frees the Warriors to revisit their 2014-15 and 2015-16 roots, with Thompson, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green as the fun-having engines. Who knows, perhaps Harrison Barnes even declines his player option and signs at the taxpayer's mid-level for old time's sake. (He won't.)
Anyone praying for the Warriors' title window to completely close after this year will disagree. They are party poopers. Superteams are good for the NBA when they don't turn every season into a carousel of recurring pointlessness.
Sending Durant to the Knicks humanizes the Warriors enough. Supporting Thompson's return both preserves their proximity to the championship conversation and allows us to see what he'd look like in a role even larger than the one he assumed in 2015-16.
Runner-up: Dallas Mavericks
Kemba Walker: Utah Jazz
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Kemba Walker will not be in the market for a new home if he deeply cares about securing the bag after playing out a bargain four-year, $48 million extension.
The Charlotte Hornets can offer him a five-year deal worth $221.3 million should he make an All-NBA team. They'll still be able to give him a $189.7 million pact if he misses out. Other suitors cannot offer him more than $140.6 million over four years.
Remove money from the equation, and this isn't even a decision. Walker needs to leave the Hornets. Whether they eke out a postseason bid this season doesn't matter. They're not positioned to drastically improve over the next couple of years. They're not slated for serious cap space until 2021, and they don't have the trade assets to swing a conventional blockbuster.
Intriguing possibilities abound if Walker prioritizes basketball fit.
Dallas is expected to make him a top target, according to the Charlotte Observer's Rick Bonnell. The Indiana Pacers will have max space (if they please) and an eventual partnership with the injured Victor Oladipo waiting. Walker becomes a nice contingency for the Lakers if they whiff on everyone else who made this list.
Utah is a cooler destination. The Jazz need another player with an elite offensive floor game to pair with Donovan Mitchell. They're fourth in half-court efficiency since the All-Star break but 15th overall on the season, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Walker is a dream solution. Most of his shot attempts come as pull-up jumpers, but he's a viable option off the ball. He has little trouble shedding defenders on the rare occasions Charlotte is able to run plays for him outside the point of attack, and he's shooting better than 41 percent on catch-and-fire threes since 2015-16.
Affording Walker won't be a problem. The Jazz create the necessary money by waiving Derrick Favors and Raul Neto, depending on where they land in the draft order. Chasing a cheaper wing is safer, since that invites them to keep Favors, but they're the one free-agent player that becomes a bona fide championship threat after adding Walker.
Everyone else—including the Lakers—falls short without making other moves.
Runner-up: Dallas Mavericks
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com or Basketball Reference and accurate leading into games on March 27. Salary and cap-hold information via Basketball Insiders and RealGM.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by SLC Dunk's Andrew Bailey.
