OKC's Blueprint to Survive Loss of a Star Not Easy to Follow for Pelicans, Bucks

It hasn't been the most glittering of starts to the season for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Minus Russell Westbrook, who's still recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery, for their first two games, the Thunder went 0-3 during opening week. And yet, while the first of those losses was to a familiar face in Kevin Durant, OKC doesn't enter this season gripped with the depression of a team still reeling from the former MVP's departure to Golden State in 2016. No, the franchise located in the NBA's third-smallest market didn't plunge into oblivion after Durant left and joined the superteam of all superteams two years ago.

Did we have it all wrong? Was Durant-to-the-Warriors not quite the death knell we thought it might have been—for the Thunder and for the state of competitive balance in the NBA?

It was and it wasn't.

"Normally when you lose a player of that caliber, you just go into the abyss," a Western Conference general manager told Bleacher Report. "Normally you'd be in the lottery for the next five or six years. It would be like a death march. For Oklahoma City, that hasn't happened."

Indeed, the Thunder have remained a playoff contender since Durant's departure and saw Russell Westbrook will his way to an MVP season in 2016-17. They have remained relevant.

But they have also been forced to recalibrate what success is for the franchise. A team built with visions of winning championships now must find satisfaction in the chase rather than the result. As talented as Westbrook and newly re-signed running mate Paul George are, you'd be hard-pressed to find any objective observer confidently argue OKC is a match for the Warriors' or Rockets' star-choked rosters, or the abundance of talent the Celtics can put on the floor.

Chuck Burton/Associated Press/Associated Press/Associated Press

Sobering as that reality might be, having a puncher's chance at a deep playoff run is better than no chance at all, right?

Ask the fans in Cleveland if they would accept that right now.

But what about the next two small-market teams facing the potential death march with their franchise players approaching free agency in 2-3 years? What about the New Orleans Pelicans (Anthony Davis) and Milwaukee Bucks (Giannis Antetokounmpo)?

Should they look at the Thunder's survival plan as a blueprint that they can replicate?

In an ideal world, sure. Relevance is better than rebuilding, in the short term, at least. But both the Bucks and Pelicans have a lot to do if they hope to follow the OKC model.

When Durant left, the Thunder had established a run of success that was the envy of everyone in the league, with the possible exception of the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat of the Big Three era. They'd piled up four Western Conference Finals appearances and one Finals appearance in six years. They'd been to the playoffs six out of seven seasons and won 50 or more games five times (and it likely would have been six if not for a lockout at the start of the 2011-12 season). And they were up 3-1 on the Warriors in the 2016 conference finals before losing in seven games.

In doing all of that, general manager Sam Presti, coach Scott Brooks and then Brooks' replacement, Billy Donovan, created a culture of winning and organizational stability. Presti gambled that these factors would be a lure for stars to join forces with Westbrook—even in a city and market that is otherwise way off the average superstar's radar screen.

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

He was right. Presti opportunistically acquired George from the Pacers in 2017 and then persuaded Carmelo Anthony to waive his no-trade clause to accept a trade from the Knicks. Those moves didn't hurt OKC's effort to keep Westbrook, which they did with a five-year, $207 million extension in 2017.

The Melo era in OKC wasn't exactly a honeymoon, but the Thunder nonetheless won 48 games and made the playoffs (losing to Utah in the first round). This came after Westbrook's MVP campaign in 2016-17, complete with 47 wins and another first-round exit.

But the real coup for OKC was persuading George to stay on a four-year, $137 max deal this past summer. The Thunder are no longer championship contenders, but they're in the playoff mix.

Here's where things get murky. Does the Thunder's survival prove that the 2016 cap-spike fluke that allowed the Warriors to sign Durant was no big deal? And that the Pelicans and Bucks shouldn't worry about the collateral damage if Davis, Antetokounmpo or both decide to go the big-market, superteam route themselves? Davis can become a free agent in 2020; Antetokounmpo in 2021.

Simply out, no and no. OKC's ability to tread playoff waters is admirable but not easy to duplicate minus a star in reserve, a Westbrook willing to stay.

"There are a lot of us in the same situation," a small-market general manager in the Eastern Conference told B/R. "It is tougher in a small market? It always has been."

Especially when you don't have a track record to sell to your homegrown, superstar free agent when his inevitable flirtation with free agency arrives.

In Davis' six seasons in New Orleans, the Pelicans have finished above .500 twice and failed to advance past the second round. With DeMarcus Cousins now in Golden State and other significant roster changes, all eyes will be on the Pelicans this season to see if they've surrounded Davis with enough talent to make a case for him to stay.

For the Bucks, the past two seasons have marked the first in Antetokounmpo's career in which they've finished above .500. They've made the playoffs three times, losing in the first round each time.

In both cases, that's hardly a decade-long run of success like the one the Thunder could present to Durant in their July 2016 free-agent meetings with him. That's hardly taking a 3-1 lead over the league's current superpower in the conference finals. And Durant left anyway.

"So much of this stuff is, you've got to catch breaks and get lucky along the way," the Eastern Conference GM said. "You've got to draft a guy. Then you've got to keep that guy. That's the new scenario now. And now you have Anthony Davis. Does he leave a small-market team?"

Davis' decision to switch agents—hiring LeBron James' agent, Rich Paul of Klutch Sports—did not go unnoticed by the New Orleans hierarchy, league sources told B/R. That decision by itself doesn't mean he's a goner, but it means something.

"If they're competitive, he's not leaving, I don't think," the Eastern Conference GM said.

Michael Wyke/Associated Press/Associated Press/Associated Press

But the real question is: If Davis does leave, how can the Pelicans possibly survive? Essentially, the clock is ticking.

What will Davis and Antetokounmpo choose? The superteam route? The glamour-market route? Both? Or will they choose the most unlikely of options, building a legacy with one franchise (like Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant)?

In Antetokounmpo's case, one person close to him told B/R he "has every intention of staying right there in Milwaukee." The Bucks just opened an opulent, state-of-the-art arena, and Antetokounmpo feels a strong family connection to the organization and the city after the passing of his father, who died of a heart attack last year, the person said.

At the same time, as long as the Warriors reign supreme, the pressure will be amplified on rival teams who already have multiple stars to add more of them as the NBA's arms race continues to escalate. In other words, there will be plenty of suitors and salesmen courting Davis and Antetokounmpo.

"The money that the Warriors are on pace to spend has raised the bar for the other owners," another Western Conference exec told B/R. "If you want to compete with the Warriors, you have to have four All-Stars; you can't just have a good team. You have to throw everything at it, and you still might not have a chance."

And at least to this point, the Pelicans and Bucks won't be able to make nearly the case that Oklahoma City was able to make to Durant about winning, stability and a culture that has stood the test of time. And as things stand today, neither roster has the depth of talent to persist as a playoff contender should their stars leave.

Of course, Durant himself will be a free agent again before both Davis and Antetokounmpo. This past summer, he opted for a two-year deal with a player option for 2019-20, giving him not only the inside track to another championship, but also the ultimate control.

Last month, Durant told reporters he chose not to sign a long-term deal with the Warriors because he wanted to "take it year by year" and "keep my options open."

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Durant's potential departure makes for yet another threat to draw Giannis or Davis to a star-filled lineup.

With some smart maneuvers and, to be honest, a little luck, that doesn't need to keep the Bucks and Pelicans up at night, but the security blanket of the Thunder model is elusive and the clock is ticking.

Ken Berger covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @KBergNBA.