Ranking Golden State Warriors' Biggest Threats Post-Free Agency
The Golden State Warriors can be their own worst enemy, since their primary vulnerability is a tendency to get careless and because the gap between them and everyone else keeps growing.
They virtually sleepwalked to 58 wins last season, then only sweat sporadically during a 12-5 playoff charge to their third NBA title in four years. And that group had to endure 66 combined injury absences from Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson.
The 2018-19 campaign not only gives these four All-Stars a clean health slate, it will also add a fifth to the equation whenever DeMarcus Cousins' Achilles tendon allows him to contribute.
Plus, this group will get extra spacing once Jonas Jerebko arrives and might perk up from the youthful energy of rookie Jacob Evans and the young bigs filling the minutes vacated by Zaza Pachulia and JaVale McGee (and likely David West).
In other words, "threat" is a relative term here.
That said, the Dubs aren't without competition—not with several potential roadblocks lurking in the West and a pair of possible powers rising in the East.
We have ranked Golden State's biggest obstacles here by talent, production, upside and how they match up in a potential postseason series.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 6
Los Angeles Lakers
LABron James—need we say more?
The Lakers need (at least) one more star to really get interesting, and unless they manage to pry Kawhi Leonard away from the San Antonio Spurs, that player isn't likely coming before next summer.
The need to maximize future salary-cap space has also led to an interesting roster construction, as the only signee who can function as a high-level shooter is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
Then again, this is still LeBron James. He may have more help now than he did last season, when he carried the Cleveland Cavaliers to 50 wins and a Finals berth. He's a miracle worker on the hardwood, and he's always worth tracking even if his club isn't an obvious contender.
New Orleans Pelicans
Subtracting Cousins and Rajon Rondo hurts, but the Pelicans pivoted to some intriguing alternatives.
The Anthony Davis-Nikola Mirotic-Julius Randle frontcourt trio can fit multiple styles and should allow last season's third-fastest team to push the pedal even harder. Elfrid Payton represents a passer and defender to go with Jrue Holiday, who has a chance to score at a career rate for the second straight season.
The wing rotation remains underwhelming, though, and Davis no longer has an All-Star running mate. This group could create problems for opponents any given night, but it may not have enough to consistently perform at or near an elite level.
Toronto Raptors
Was anyone more thrilled to see James leave the East than Toronto? Its last three playoff runs were short-circuited by James, and those struggles were dire enough to result in a coaching change and significant trade rumors.
But with James out, the Raptors should feel emboldened to run it back (or maybe make a power move for Kawhi). Last season, Toronto paced the conference in wins (59) and net efficiency rating (plus-7.6). It also split its series with the Boston Celtics and took three of four contests with the Philadelphia 76ers.
Still, unless a major move is coming, the Raptors look more like a shadow contender than a full-fledged powerhouse. The DeMar DeRozan-Kyle Lowry tandem hasn't always delivered in previous postseason journeys, the frontcourt might require a modern makeover, and the wings are lacking a dynamic two-way player.
5. Utah Jazz
2 of 6
After an even-better-than-it-sounds 48-win season, the Utah Jazz have spent their summer keeping the band together. Derrick Favors, Dante Exum and Raul Neto all returned from free agency, with the former citing the club's late-season stampede as a primary reason for sticking around.
"It was very important," Favors said, per John Coon of the Associated Press. "I saw what we had and what we could accomplish in a full season when everyone's healthy."
From January 19—the night Rudy Gobert returned from a left knee injury—through the end of the regular season, the Jazz posted a 30-8 record and a league-best plus-10.8 net rating. During that stretch, their defense paced the Association by 3.6 points per 100 possessions.
The Jazz also thrice throttled the Warriors in that time by a combined 89 points. Golden State failed to reach triple digits in any of those contests, something that only happened 12 times all season.
Utah's defense might have as high a ceiling as any unit outside of Golden State's offense. The Jazz were impenetrable at points last season and could be more ferocious next season with a full year of Jae Crowder and clean bills of health for Exum and Thabo Sefolosha.
So, why aren't the Jazz higher than No. 5? Because they had a single player average more than 14 points per game, and it was 43.7-percent-shooting rookie Donovan Mitchell. Even if he can bring his efficiency up to levels rivaling his impressive volume, it's tough to tell where else this team can turn for consistent points.
Once this defense met a comparable rival in the Houston Rockets offense during the conference semis, Utah's offense was exposed. Over their five-game defeat, the Jazz managed the round's fewest points (98.6), most turnovers (16.0) and second-lowest net rating (minus-9.9).
4. Oklahoma City Thunder
3 of 6
Year one of the Russell Westbrook-Paul George pairing for the Oklahoma City Thunder was more successful than most think. The end results may not have shown it—one more victory than the previous season, another first-round exit—but the proof was in the process.
OKC had multiple elite flashes, particularly before Andre Roberson went down. The Westbrook-George-Roberson-Steven Adams quartet had an eye-popping plus-12.9 net rating over 583 minutes. And a lot of that came alongside an uncomfortable Carmelo Anthony, who struggled as a support scorer and provided little resistance the other way.
Once Anthony inevitably departs, a process ESPN.com's Adrian Wojnarowski and Royce Young reported is in the works, the Thunder should find a better-fitting fifth Beatle. Jerami Grant could increase the unit's athleticism and defensive versatility. Alex Abrines would give the offense more breathing room. If Terrance Ferguson takes a sophomore leap, he might do all of the above.
"They have a chance to be really good," ESPN.com's Zach Lowe wrote. "The Thunder hit a winter groove after a rocky start and might have continued apace had Andre Roberson not ruptured his left patellar tendon. ... They get more time to jell now. They are short on shooting, but that's not a new problem."
Last season's Thunder went 4-3 against the Warriors and Houston Rockets. The Westbrook-George duo is potent enough to hang with anyone on its biggest nights, and the defense can switch almost everything when Roberson and Grant man the 4 and 5 spots.
There are big enough concerns to keep them out of the top three—depth, shooting, consistency from their stars—but also reasons to believe they'll build off their quietly successful season.
3. Philadelphia 76ers
4 of 6
From 2015-16 to 2016-17, the Philadelphia 76ers nearly tripled their win total. Of course, that only meant the process-trusters went from 10 victories to 28.
The real breakout came this past season, when the Sixers nearly doubled those 28 triumphs with 52, 16 of which came in the club's final 16 contests. Philly followed that up with its first playoff series success since 2012, a feat made all the more magical when considering the franchise's most important players are 24-year-old Joel Embiid and 21-year-old Ben Simmons.
Add 24-year-old Dario Saric and 20-year-old Markelle Fultz to the equation, and Philly's future looks as bright as any. But if there's a way to upgrade in the present, Philly feels close enough to accelerate the operation.
"We are star-hunting or star-developing," head coach Brett Brown said, per Dan Gelston of the Associated Press. "You're not going to win a championship any other way."
The Sixers are in the Leonard sweepstakes, but they'd rather walk away than overpay, per Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Getting him, though, would add an ideal complement to Embiid and Simmons, as he offers championship experience, world-class perimeter defense and the ability to function as either a No. 1 scoring option or a floor-spacing safety valve.
Even if Philly stands pat, it should step forward. So many members of this squad have ample room for internal growth—none greater than Fultz, last summer's No. 1 pick who had his rookie year ravaged by shoulder and shooting problems. Newcomers Zhaire Smith and Landry Shamet will expand the club's athleticism and perimeter-sniping.
But the Sixers are less polished than the two remaining teams, which has been evidenced by their turnover woes and erratic shooting.
2. Houston Rockets
5 of 6
This hasn't been the smoothest summer for the Houston Rockets. Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute—two pivotal pieces of their sixth-ranked defense—found new homes in free agency. Clint Capela, perhaps the biggest reason Houston became such successful stoppers, lurks in restricted free-agency limbo.
But we would caution against penalizing the Rockets too severely in the court of public opinion.
Not even two months ago, this group had a 3-2 advantage in the Western Conference Finals. No one contributed more to the Rockets' winning ways than James Harden and Chris Paul, both of whom are under contract for at least the next four seasons. Regardless what else happens this offseason, Houston will retain the two driving forces of a top-10 all-time attack.
And don't forget, the summer is far from finished. Houston already found one three-and-D replacement in James Ennis, per Yahoo Sports' Shams Charania. The Rockets also retain control of Capela's situation and are optimistic they'll iron out an agreement eventually, per Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle.
"Obviously, losing Trevor and losing Luc, it's going to hurt," head coach Mike D'Antoni told ESPN.com's Tim McMahon. "You don't replace that, but we'll figure it out. ... There's different ways to go. We're going to be good. Like Chris is saying, we're going to run it back at Golden State. We'll see. We'll be ready."
The Rockets were without question the Dubs' primary threat last season. Houston bested everyone in wins (65) and net rating (plus-8.4), sprinted through the first two rounds with a Golden State-like 8-2 record and had the champs on the ropes before Paul's hamstring failed him at the worst possible time.
The Rockets moved down a spot for two seasons. The losses of Ariza and Mbah a Moute will make it harder to strike the two-way balance needed to knock off the Warriors. Plus, the top team on our list boasts both superior depth and fewer playoff obstacles.
1. Boston Celtics
6 of 6
The Boston Celtics were already one of last season's most dominant teams, which probably shouldn't have been possible—not when Gordon Hayward was lost for the year on opening night and Kyrie Irving joined the inactive list in early March.
But their absences created openings for youngsters Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier to burst through. The 24-and-under trio occupied the top three playoff scoring spots for the Celtics, who had 2-0 and 3-2 leads in the Eastern Conference Finals before LeBron went berserk.
The 2018-19 Shamrocks should get the best of both worlds—the veteran All-Stars and the three up-and-comers all together. Not to mention sturdy support pieces such as Marcus Morris and Aron Baynes, the less heralded neophytes like Semi Ojeleye, Guerschon Yabusele and No. 27 overall pick Robert Williams, or restricted free agent Marcus Smart, who seems likely to stick around even if only on his qualifying offer.
That's an awful lot of firepower, especially in the LeBron-less East.
"The Celtics [are] poised to sit atop the East for years to come," Tim Bontemps wrote for the Washington Post. "The team that lost to James and the Cavaliers in each of the last two Eastern Conference Finals will be favored to, at minimum, make it that far for the foreseeable future."
The Celtics can seamlessly switch on defense, and they'll be stronger around the basket if Williams forces his way into the rotation. They also have a history of giving the Warriors fits, having forced one of their five-lowest scoring efforts each of the last two seasons.
They should also be loaded with scoring options. Irving has averaged 22.0 points for his career. Hayward is at 20.2 since the start of 2014-15. Tatum and Brown both supplied 18-plus per night in the postseason. And let's not forget, head coach Brad Stevens strategizes as well as anyone.
The Celtics aren't on the Warriors' level, but their ceiling sits the closest.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
