NBA Teams That Will Be Most Active on Trade Market This Summer
Trade speculation is rampant during the NBA offseason—for good reason.
Every team is, ostensibly, granted a fresh slate each summer. Breaks in the action allow them to decide what's next. Where are they headed? Where do they want to go?
Squads can kick around rebuilds. They can chase instant turnarounds. They can stage overhauls. They can cut salary. They can leverage cap space into additional assets. They can lust after superstars.
Not every exploration is successful. Some teams aren't attempting to do much, or even anything. Others are content to use free agency as their primary tool for change. But a bunch of squads will lean on the trade market to help meet their offseason goals—whatever they may be.
This exercise will not assume tear-downs. The Charlotte Hornets don't make the cut just because Kemba Walker will be a hot commodity. Teams without clearly available assets aren't included either. The New Orleans Pelicans don't own the non-Anthony Davis pieces to be chopping-block aggressors, while the Memphis Grizzlies have yet to indicate they'll part with Mike Conley or Marc Gasol.
And finally: Those with no discernible aim will not be considered, since the scope of their priorities will vary based on whether they opt for a rebuild or try upping their playoff profile. Go ahead and call this the "Los Angeles Clippers Paradigm."
Wild Cards
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Boston Celtics
Although team president Danny Ainge will continue sending daily, sometimes hourly, "Brow?" texts to Dell Demps, the Celtics won't be waltzing into the summer looking to break bread with anyone.
Yes, Ainge is capable of anything. Last August's Kyrie Irving trade proves as much. But the Celtics have the second-best record in the Eastern Conference despite Gordon Hayward's playing just five minutes all year and Irving himself missing extensive time with a knee injury. They aren't in asset-acquisition mode anymore. They have the incumbent star power and high-end prospects to straddle both short- and long-term championship contention.
Bake in a dearth of filler salary—Jayson Tatum is their fourth-highest paid player right now—and even the most unnecessarily obsessive trade overtures won't make sense until February's deadline.
Of course, Ainge is still Ainge. He'll keep his eyes peeled for any superstar who reaches the auction block, be it Anthony Davis or, even less likely, someone such as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, etc.
Cleveland Cavaliers
If LeBron James sticks around, the Cavaliers will no doubt gauge the value of whomever they select with the Brooklyn Nets' pick. It may not fall high enough in the lottery to net a superstar-worthy prospect, but a top-10 selection plus some contract calories puts them in the running for someone better suited to their timeline.
All bets are off if James signs or forces a trade elsewhere.
Cleveland could re-up Rodney Hood (restricted) and hope a foundation of him, the Nets pick, Jordan Clarkson, George Hill, Kyle Korver, Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr., Cedi Osman and Tristan Thompson earns a playoff bid. Or it could try selling off all the leftover veterans and start fresh.
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas is among the few teams with the capacity to dredge up $20 million or more in cap space. And owner Mark Cuban's remarks leading into this season's trade deadline could signal a willingness to lease out cap space for draft compensation.
"I would say we are looking to use our cap space actively," he said, per the Dallas Morning News' Eddie Sefko. "We will take back salary to get picks or guys we think can play."
Cap space is in scant supply these days. The Mavericks could fetch a premium by facilitating salary dumps for juggernauts, wannabe contenders, reckless rebuilders and—quasi-spoiler alert—tax-averse squads. But they might also use their money for themselves.
Dirk Nowitzki is expected to return for another season, according to the New York Times' Marc Stein. Harrison Barnes, going on 26, is a tweener building block—young enough to remain part of a reset, but established enough to infer more urgency. Dennis Smith Jr. and this year's first-round pick could be the only players on the roster under the age of 24.
The Mavericks can talk themselves into pursuing a return to the playoffs. They know they're in the micro-minority when it comes to offseason spending power. They already have plans to sniff around restricted free agents like Aaron Gordon, per Sporting News' Sean Deveney. And if they burn their cap space on win-now components, they'll lack the assets necessary to transform into a trade-market buyer—unless they put Smith or this June's draft selection on the table.
Milwaukee Bucks
Avoiding the luxury tax ($123 million) could become a priority for the Bucks depending on whether they re-sign Jabari Parker (restricted) and how much it'll cost them to do so. But they waived Mirza Teletovic while citing his ongoing battle with blood clots. That changes things.
Milwaukee can apply for his 2018-19 salary to be excluded from its ledger early in November. He still gets paid, but his cap hit would no longer count toward tax calculations. That, in theory, gives the Bucks a $10.5 million cushion with which to work, erasing the urgency for them to grease the wheels of a Matthew Dellavedova or John Henson trade.
Luxury-Tax Evaders
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Miami Heat
Carrying Wayne Ellington's $8.2 million free-agent hold drags Miami into luxury-tax territory even after declining Jordan Mickey's team option—but only barely.
Assuming the Heat guarantee Rodney McGruder's 2018-19 salary, they're looking at around $126.8 million in hypothetical charges, which leaves them $3.8 million over the $123 million luxury-tax line. That number can and will go down depending on how much Ellington actually costs. Giving him a tick over $8 million would basically be akin to the mid-level exception; he's not worth that in a cash-poor free-agent market.
This number could also go up if the Heat spend into their actual mid-level exception. (They own Ellington's Early Bird rights, so they don't need to use it on him.) And they might as well tap into it.
Miaimi doesn't have any smaller expendable salaries. McGruder, Bam Adebayo and Justise Winslow are the team's only sub-$5 million rotation staples, and they're not players you deal in straight-up dumps. But if the Heat are looking to orchestrate larger contract cuts to avoid the tax or adhere to the hard cap, then one of them could be used to butter up the exit of a more expensive name.
Portland Trail Blazers
Cap holds for free agents Ed Davis ($12.1 million), Shabazz Napier (restricted; $7.1 million) and Jusuf Nurkic (restricted; $8.8 million) will vault the Blazers well past the luxury-tax threshold. Retaining two of them while staying under $123 in total obligations is impossible without dumps on the margins. Re-signing Nurkic alone could take them into the tax.
Maybe the Blazers will be open to bankrolling an absurdly expensive roster. They're in line to secure the Western Conference's No. 3 seed, and Damian Lillard scheduled a covert sit-down with owner Paul Allen in January to make sure the team is all about the now.
Escaping the first round of the playoffs might get the Blazers thinking they're on the verge of party-crashing the Golden State Warriors' and Houston Rockets' reigns atop the West. It helps that they don't have obviously nonessential salary. Evan Turner is playing well at the moment but will remain immovable this summer, while Al-Farouq Aminu and Maurice Harkless are too integral to the team's success.
Still, Portland can only cannonball so deep into the tax. Re-signing Davis, Napier and Nurkic even in a scrimpy free-agent market will cost at least a combined $25 million. And that would take salary obligations into the $140 million range.
That ain't happening. Nor will the Blazers cut bait with all their own free agents. They'll need to find a happy medium. Whether that entails sweetening the pot enough to pawn off Meyers Leonard, swallowing the loss of Harkless or another form of collateral damage doesn't matter. The Blazers have to do something to thin out the fast-rising cost of maintaining their roster.
Toronto Raptors
Tough decisions await the Raptors. They'll start off the summer in luxury-tax territory before factoring in restricted free-agent holds for Lucas Nogueira ($8.8 million) and Fred VanVleet ($1.7 million).
Parting ways with the former will be easy. He hardly plays with Serge Ibaka, Jakob Poeltl, Pascal Siakam and Jonas Valanciunas all in front of him. Severing ties with VanVleet is more difficult to stomach. He's become a crunch-time staple, and DeMar DeRozan-Kyle Lowry-VanVleet lineups have developed into a go-to crutch for head coach Dwane Casey.
Pushing the Cavaliers to the brink in the Eastern Conference Finals or playing into the NBA Finals could afford team president Masai Ujiri some form of carte blanche. But the Raptors traveled great lengths to sidestep the tax this season. Chances are they'll do the same for next year. And they'll need to be extra creative if they want to keep the payroll in check while re-signing VanVleet.
Look for Ibaka and Norman Powell to get some serious run in the summertime rumor mill.
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are in a weird spot.
Next season's bottom line will sit around $126.9 million if they keep their first-round pick and Jodie Meeks and Jason Smith exercise their player options. That's too close to the $123 million line for the Wizards to not try avoiding it—especially after paying into the tax this year.
Meeks could throw them a bone by opting out, but then they'd still be about $400,000 over the limit. Stretching Smith would be an option at that point, but paying him $1.8 million for three years feels like a waste unless the Wizards have someone nice lined up to accept a very small chunk of the mid-level exception.
Dealing Meeks or Smith into another team's cap space is the more convenient course of action. Washington is light on sweeteners, but a 2022 second-round pick should do the trick for someone like Meeks.
Including whomever they choose with this year's draft choice would be a possibility if they're looking to carve out more breathing room by jettisoning Smith. Both Marcin Gortat and Markieff Morris will be in the final season of their deals as well. Morris could be dealt without using a sweetener if the Wizards want to trim even more salary. Possibly Gortat, too.
The elephant in the room? The future of Washington's three max players: Bradley Beal, Otto Porter and John Wall. A first-round flameout could prompt a more wholesale about-face that seeks to move one of them for depth and cap relief.
Cap-Space Seekers
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New York Knicks
Most teams in New York's situation wouldn't make this cut.
Kristaps Porzingis is recovering from a torn ACL in his left knee. The Knicks will be lucky to have him back by Christmas—despite what one of the doctors charged with his rehab might say. That torpedoes any hope they have of contending for something special next season.
Burning through cap space this summer would verge on pointless even if they had it. And they don't have it.
Kyle O'Quinn may decline his player option ($4.3 million), but Ron Baker ($4.5 million) isn't turning down his. And while Enes Kanter remains undecided on his ($18.6 million) after hiring a new agent, per the New York Daily News' Stefan Bondy, he's not getting that kind of money on the open market. He'll be lucky if he makes $20 million in total on a two-year deal.
Guaranteeing Trey Burke's salary will leave the Knicks with negligible wiggle room if Baker and Kanter both return. They can sneak up to around $12.9 million by stretching Joakim Noah, but paying him $7.6 million for each of the next five years would be a special kind of dumb.
Finding takers for Courtney Lee (two years, $25 million) and Lance Thomas (two years, $14.7 million with non-guarantee for 2019-20) is the more sensible play. Neither should require a sweetener, and trading Lee specifically without taking back salary in return opens up almost $2 million more than waiving Noah would.
Granted, the Knicks remain the Knicks. They could ship out Lee—sending him to the Indiana Pacers for Bojan Bogdanovic's $1.5 million guarantee prior to the draft would be super interesting—and then stretch Noah to access nearly $23 million in play money.
And wouldn't jumping through all the hoops ever to create space ahead of a free-agency class that isn't worth the trouble be sooooo Knicks?
Philadelphia 76ers
Why yes, this does have (almost) everything to do with LeBron James.
The Sixers are apparently on his short list of potential free-agent destinations, according to The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor. And if they want to make room for his max salary ($35.4 millionish), they'll need to shed some of their existing money.
Unloading Jerryd Bayless' expiring contract is the preferred gateway to affording James. Attaching their own first-round pick to his $8.6 million salary without taking back anything in return gets them to $35.2 million. Subbing in Justin Anderson for the draft selection would get them comfortably past $35.4 million—provided they successfully suss out a Justin Anderson believer.
Other avenues can be explored if this doesn't fly. Teams will gladly take on Richaun Holmes (team option), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot or T.J. McConnell (team option). Anderson could be moved in a separate deal if he's not enough of a Bayless buffer.
Miss out on James, and the Sixers won't belong here. They have an easy route to more than $25 million in offseason allowance without offloading other money. They won't need more than that for contingencies.
Opportunistic Buyers
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Indiana Pacers
The Pacers could easily find themselves on the outskirts of this clique. Their appeal as a trade partner rests on the partial guaranteed salaries of Bojan Bogdanovic ($1.5 million), Darren Collison ($2 million) and Al Jefferson ($4 million).
Possible sellers prioritizing cap relief (hi, Charlotte) should pounce on those deals if they're looking to pivot ahead of the draft. All three players still hold value leading into the regular season as expiring contracts if nothing can be hashed out before the league resets its books for 2018-19. Cory Joseph and Thaddeus Young will be in the same boat should they exercise their player options.
Indiana has to keep at least a few of these players. Ditching Bogdanovic, Collison and Jefferson for cap space leaves little in the way of appetizing assets—especially if Joseph and Young opt for free agency. Future draft picks aren't that valuable following Victor Oladipo's breakout, and Myles Turner should be considered off-limits.
Strike before the draft or keep two of their expiring contracts, and the Pacers will be able to send out more than $20 million in imminent cap relief. What they do with that will be up to them. Either they read into this season's jump and shop around for impact players, or they contemplate absorbing an unsavory long-term pact in exchange for draft compensation.
Los Angeles Lakers
Wild-card status was absolutely in play for the Los Angeles Lakers. So much about their approach is tethered to what they do in free agency.
Will they be aggressively looking to dump the final two years and $36.8 million of Luol Deng's agreement to chisel out two max-contract slots without having to renounce Julius Randle? Will they be trying to pry an All-Star from a deteriorating situation to sell Paul George and/or LeBron James on their future?
In the event they swing and miss, again, on the free-agency front, will they look to expedite their rebuild by hocking any combination of their burgeoning youngsters?
It doesn't seem like the latter is a real possibility. The Lakers have a nice foundation in place with Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma and this year's Cavaliers pick. Randle would be a part of their foundation as well if they elect to re-sign him.
Letting this core marinate should they miss on all their top free agents is the rational alternative. But the Lakers are itching for a star. If they don't think Ball, Ingram, Randle or any other incumbent will make that leap by the end of next season, the trade market becomes the most realistic way for them to land their first whale.
Flat-Out, Unconditional Buyers
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Denver Nuggets
Ducking the luxury tax will top the Nuggets' to-do list if Darrell Arthur (duh²) and Wilson Chandler (honestly have no idea) pick up their player options—assuming, of course, they don't delay Nikola Jokic's payday.
Declining his club option throws him into restricted free agency, at which point, presumably, Denver would back up the max-contract freight train. Paying Jokic roughly $25.3 million for 2018-19 takes the Nuggets past $130 million in total salary if Arthur and Chandler stay put and they keep their first-round pick. And that's before factoring in Will Barton's cap hold ($6.7 million).
Belly-flopping into the luxury tax for a squad that, in all likelihood, won't be working off a playoff berth is out of the question. But the Nuggets, unlike other teams, will have a ton of money tied up in expiring deals.
Arthur, Chandler and Kenneth Faried all become valuable salary-matching fodder over the offseason. Attach them to a pick and some of the team's young players, and Denver has the tools to entice prospective sellers—resources the front office will have to use after whiffing on its postseason chase.
Phoenix Suns
General manager Ryan McDonough's offseason game plan has made the rounds approximately infinite times since he laid it out in January, but here's the skinny once more:
"There are certain core pieces that are starting to solidify," he told AZCentral.com's Scott Bordow. "I think we'd be foolish or naive to wait forever or be overly patient. We've been, I think, relatively disciplined with contracts we've given out in terms of length and dollars, but yeah, we're planning on being one of five or six teams with a decent amount of cap space, and we'll see if we can improve the team."
Parlaying cap space into a marquee name wouldn't preclude the Suns from making waves on the trade market. If anything, it'd convince them to redouble their efforts.
Devin Booker is extension-eligible this summer. TJ Warren's four-year, $50 million deal kicks in next season. The NBA's second-youngest team is about to get more expensive. Now is the time to work the phones before they have too much tied up in Booker, Warren and Brandon Knight—and before their best dispensable assets wash out.
Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley are entering the final year of their deals. Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss are raw enough for the Suns to advertise them as pleasant mysteries with untapped upside. They have Miami's pick this year and in 2021. Milwaukee's selection—protected for Nos. 1 to 10 and 17 to 30—could convey in June as well.
Josh Jackson and the Suns' own pick (probably top-three) even come into play. They won't shop them around the league willy-nilly, but both qualify as superstar magnets.
If an A-lister with multiple years left on his deal reaches the chopping block—think Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, John Wall, etc.—Phoenix has the asset clout to cobble together some interesting packages.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com or Basketball Reference and accurate leading into games on Friday. Salary and cap-hold information via Basketball Insiders and RealGM.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
