Can the Sixers Win a Series If Joel Embiid Misses Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs?
A Philadelphia 76ers team that seemed to be rounding into shape ahead of an anticipated playoff run suffered a massive setback Wednesday when Joel Embiid collided with Markelle Fultz during a 118-101 win over the New York Knicks. The All-Star center initially hinted on social media that the situation was "not good," and Philly confirmed on Thursday that, in addition to entering the NBA's concussion protocol, he will undergo surgery to repair a fractured left orbital bone in his face.
An official timeline hasn't been announced, but ESPN.com's Zach Lowe reported that he could return in two to four weeks.
Needless to say, this news throws doubt into Embiid's availability for the start of the playoffs (April 14) and the Sixers' ability to make a deep run in their postseason return. It's an unfortunate development for a squad starting to come into its own. Fultz is finally back in the rotation, and Embiid and Ben Simmons have powered Philly to an eight-game winning streak and a 20-6 record since the beginning of February.
At long last, Embiid's much-discussed trust in The Process appeared ready to bear results. It still might, but the Sixers' path to a first-round series win is tougher if he's out of the picture.
Much like the rest of the Eastern Conference, the Sixers' first-round outlook is still unsettled. They sit in fourth place at 44-30, leading the fifth-seeded Indiana Pacers (45-31) by mere percentage points and trailing the third-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers (45-30) by a half-game. Below them, the Washington Wizards, Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks are separated by just a game-and-a-half for the Nos. 6-8 seeds. Depending on how the final two weeks of the regular season shake out, any of those opponents are potentially in play.
As talented as the Sixers roster is, the team is considerably worse at both ends of the floor without Embiid. When Embiid plays, the Sixers score 111.4 points and allow just 99.7 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. When he's out, their offensive efficiency falls to 101.8 points per 100 possessions, and they give up 105.7 points per 100 possessions to opponents. Embiid's primary backup, Richaun Holmes, cannot replicate the impact he has on both sides of the ball.
This will make their road tougher in the first round of the playoffs, no matter who they face.
Even without Embiid to go head-to-head with Hassan Whiteside, the Heat are the most favorable matchup the Sixers could hope for in the first round. Out of the teams they could face, Miami has the worst offense (19th in the league). This will help a Sixers defense lacking its most important piece.
Miami's talent, on paper, is the least impressive of the teams they could face, and the Heat's grinding style of play will be less effective come playoff time, when everyone plays as hard as they do. However, Miami's defense is deep and fundamentally sound, and Erik Spoelstra's postseason track record gives him an advantage over Brett Brown, who will be making his playoff debut as a head coach.
The Pacers could pose some serious matchup problems for Philadelphia if Embiid isn't available to check Myles Turner, who scored 25 points in a win over the Sixers on March 13 even with Embiid playing over 32 minutes.
The Sixers' three-point defense is second-best in the league, holding opponents to 34.1 percent from deep, but Indiana is the eighth-best three-point shooting team in the NBA.
The Pacers don't get to the foul line much (19.3 attempts per game, the fifth-lowest in the league), but the Sixers foul more than any other team projected to make the playoffs. Without Embiid, there are elements of the matchup that could lead to a first-round exit for Philadelphia.
The Wizards have plenty of health concerns of their own, but John Wall is expected to return next week after missing two months with a knee injury. If Wall immediately resumes All-Star form, that might be all it takes to get an inconsistent Washington team back on track.
But the Wizards have other issues as well. Kelly Oubre Jr. has struggled since January after a promising start to the season, and Otto Porter Jr. suffered an ankle sprain on Thursday. Their playoff prospects are just as hard to predict as those of the Sixers.
The Bucks have struggled of late, but Giannis Antetokounmpo had a monster postseason a year ago and figures to do so again no matter who plays for the Sixers. He'll give Simmons all he can handle on the perimeter, and without Embiid to guard him in the paint, Philadelphia might not be able to do much with him there either. However, Milwaukee has consistency issues of its own, as well as a below-average defense (107 points allowed per 100 possessions).
The Sixers should most fear the Cavaliers in a first-round matchup, with or without Embiid. This young Philadelphia team has little playoff experience (none in the case of its stars), and a Cavs team that has made the last three Finals and is led by the best player in the world is not an ideal first test.
A Simmons-LeBron James matchup is exciting on paper, but it has the makings of a rude awakening for the rookie. The Cavs' 29th-ranked defense makes them vulnerable. But their offense is the league's fifth-best, and when Kevin Love returns (concussion protocol), their spacing will create problems for an Embiid-less Sixers defense.
It's difficult to project when Embiid could return to the court, and the Sixers could go one of two ways. Embiid will undoubtedly want to come back as quickly as possible, and the Sixers' medical staff could let him push the limits of the recovery to make his postseason debut.
The more likely scenario, however, is for the Sixers and Embiid to err on the side of caution; next season is the first of a five-year, $146.5 million contract extension for the 2014 third overall pick. With Fultz barely playing this season and Simmons capping off a phenomenal rookie campaign that could end with Rookie of the Year honors, Philadelphia's window for contending is just beginning. The Sixers could chalk this year up as a victory for breaking a five-year playoff drought and retooling for next season and beyond. The next 10 years are more important than the next two months.
The Sixers could conceivably win a playoff series without Embiid if they get the right matchup—like the Heat—but it's no sure thing.
One thing that is certain: The NBA playoffs will be a lot less fun if Embiid doesn't play.
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