J.D. Martinez or Bust: Red Sox Now at Risk of Falling Flat in Critical Offseason

Let's imagine the 2017-18 MLB offseason is a beach. Now let's imagine the New York Yankees are kicking sand in the face of the Boston Red Sox.

Sorry, Massachusetts faithful. That's how it's gone thus far.

The Yankees added a seismic slugger in National League MVP Giancarlo Stanton from a trade with the Miami Marlins. They're poised to assume supremacy in the American League East with a potent lineup anchored by Stanton, American League Rookie of the Year Aaron Judge and catcher Gary Sanchez.

That trio alone could plausibly launch 150 home runs in 2018. By comparison, the Red Sox's entire roster managed 168 homers in 2017, the lowest total in the Junior Circuit.

They also finished 22nd in OPS at .736. In a historic season for long balls, they fell woefully short.

The Red Sox won the division by two games over the Yanks anyway but can't count on repeating the feat. They're in a win-now window. They need thump—no two ways about it.

That's where J.D. Martinez enters the picture. Various rumors have linked the slugging outfielder to the Sox all winter. On January 17, ESPN.com's Buster Olney reported Boston offered Martinez five years and $100 million. The Boston Herald's Michael Silverman put the figure in the neighborhood of $125 million.

"We're hopeful to make a deal," Red Sox chairman Tom Werner told reporters. "As I said, it takes two people to make that deal."

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Martinez is a client of superagent Scott Boras. He clubbed 45 home runs and posted a 1.066 OPS between the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks last season. He'll celebrate his 31st birthday in August, meaning his prime isn't past.

He's not foolish to wait for a contract that vaults past the low end of nine figures and reaches six or more seasons.

Such a contract would sting the club that signs on for the back end. There's no way Martinez will be worth $20 million-plus a campaign in his late 30s.

That's the cost of doing business for teams that have painted themselves into a free-agency-or-bust corner, however, and the Sox decidedly qualify.

Among their top 10 prospects, per MLB.com, four are pitchers and only 19-year-old Cole Brannen (No. 9) is an outfielder. They've traded away a share of the future for current relevance under executive Dave Dombrowski.

Yes, the Sox's outfield, from left to right, is stocked with Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts. Benintendi and Betts, especially, are building blocks for Boston.

The Red Sox could clear room for Martinez by demoting or jettisoning injury-riddled designated hitter Hanley Ramirez, who hit .242 with a ho-hum .750 OPS and is circling the drain of his formerly robust career. Or, they could trade an outfielder, most likely Bradley, and move Betts to center field, where he's played 161 MLB games.

However they make it work, they need to make it work.

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

So far this offseason, the Red Sox have re-upped first baseman Mitch Moreland, an ancillary transaction that pales in comparison to the Yankees' Stanton swap.

They're rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic while New York builds a bigger boat.

Lorenzo Cain recently inked a five-year, $80 million deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. He's roughly a year-and-a-half older than Martinez. He cost a compensatory draft pick, which Martinez won't because he was traded in-season in 2017. Martinez boasts more power, a commodity the Red Sox crave.

Martinez and Boras can roll out a compelling case for a glitzier deal with at least an extra year tacked on. The Sox can't counter from a position of strength.

There are interesting hitters on the market. Outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and first baseman Eric Hosmer could be fits for Boston. They'd come to town with less surefire pop and more uncertainty, however.

Gonzalez's price tag would be lower; so is his ceiling. Hosmer's power is suspect, as he's eclipsed 20 homers in two of his seven big league seasons, and he's also seeking nine figures.

Any way you parse it, Martinez makes the most sense for the Sox. They're the roller skate, he's the key. In this case, the key has most of the negotiating might.

Getting back to the beach metaphor: The Red Sox are standing in the shallows, looking to catch a wave. The burgeoning Yankees are surfing into the sunset.

It's time for Boston to paddle out, or risk getting crushed against the rocks.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.