Predicting Which NBA Teams Will See Biggest Wins Drop-off in 2017-18
There are few better points on the NBA calendar for optimism than October.
But we're here to do our dream-shattering duties with a look ahead at the 2017-18 season's likeliest squads to see the sharpest declines in the win column.
That doesn't mean all of these teams are bad, although some certainly fit that bill. Rather, they're just positioned to be worse than before, due to everything from free-agency departures and underwhelming trade returns to dried-up talent pools and the lack of impact acquisitions.
We have placed our arbitrary cutoff point at five fewer victories or worse, which helped the Boston Celtics and Sacramento Kings narrowly avoid this list. The following six clubs weren't as lucky, though, and we'll explain why.
San Antonio Spurs
1 of 6
2016-17 Record: 61-21
Projected 2017-18 Record: 55-27
Projected Win Decrease: Six
Doubting the San Antonio Spurs is never comfortable and rarely sensible. But plotting them for 55 wins is hardly a slight. Besides, a six-game slide seems reasonable with injury concerns still looming and the offseason failing to deliver a difference-maker.
It's been a tough time for quadriceps in the Alamo City. Tony Parker hasn't played since rupturing his left one in May. Kawhi Leonard's debut has been delayed by an injury to his right one. Last season, the pair provided 33.5 percent of San Antonio's points and 33.6 percent of the assists on a nightly basis. Neither has a timetable for his return.
The Spurs can usually rely on their reinforcements to cover any absences, and that might again be the case. But this roster isn't what it seemed it could be. Despite summer buzz around Chris Paul (per Marc Stein, then with ESPN), Kyle Lowry (per Jabari Young of the San Antonio Express-News) and George Hill (per Young), San Antonio's top addition wound up being volume-scorer Rudy Gay.
Maybe the Spurs' best move was not moving LaMarcus Aldridge, who looks comfortable and dominant. Maybe the absences of Parker and Leonard will mature the supporting cast. Maybe Gregg Popovich keeps coaching circles around everyone, and Manu Ginobili stays a step ahead of Father Time. But that's too many maybes to anticipate another 60-win effort, even if this franchise has a habit of making skeptics look foolish.
"For the Spurs, so much of this season depends on this result that has been foisted upon them—a reality that even the best-laid plans of one of the NBA's best-run teams don't always turn out as expected," Rob Mahoney of Sports Illustrated wrote. "All that's left to do, in typical San Antonio fashion, is make the absolute most of it."
Los Angeles Clippers
2 of 6
2016-17 Record: 51-31
Projected 2017-18 Record: 44-38
Projected Win Decrease: Seven
Losing a player of Chris Paul's ilk would cripple a lot of franchises. The Los Angeles Clippers could be one of the exceptions, thanks to the $173 million investment in Blake Griffin.
While the five-time All-Star isn't held in quite the same regard as his former teammate, he can similarly function as a top-shelf offensive fulcrum. He can be both a primary scorer and playmaker, as evidenced by his 26.7 points and 4.3 assists in only 32.7 minutes per game. Oh, he's striping threes at a 44.4 percent clip now, too. And before you raise any tiny-sample-size alarms, he's been a one-man wrecking crew before.
"If last season's me-time is any indication, Griffin is up to the challenge," Bleacher Report's Dan Favale wrote. "He averaged 23.2 points and 6.4 assists on 50 percent shooting per 36 minutes of court time without Paul, through which the Clippers scored like a top-three offense and posted a positive differential per 100 possessions."
In other words, the floor isn't falling out from underneath the Clippers; not with Griffin guiding the offense, DeAndre Jordan and Patrick Beverley controlling the defense and the second unit perhaps providing more support than ever under head coach Doc Rivers.
But there's no avoiding some backtracking after Paul's departure. He had the second-highest real plus-minus of anyone last season, per ESPN.com. There is no way of filling that void.
If L.A. avoids plummeting into a crater and only subtracts seven from its win column, that's about as good as this can go.
Utah Jazz
3 of 6
2016-17 Record: 51-31
Projected 2017-18 Record: 43-39
Projected Win Decrease: Eight
Last season, the Utah Jazz posted their highest offensive efficiency when George Hill was in the game. Their lowest came when Gordon Hayward took a seat.
Guess which two players no longer reside in Salt Lake City. And guess which attack could be in brutal shape without them.
After scoring 106 points on opening night, Utah has failed to reach triple-digits since. While that's partly due to pace (only the Memphis Grizzlies play slower), it speaks to a dearth of firepower. Rodney Hood, who's already missed time to injury, leads the way at just 16.0 points per game. Defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert is next at 14.4, then it's Ricky Rubio with 13.8 and his customary sub-40 field-goal percentage.
When this offense hits a rut, it's unclear who can right the ship. The Jazz can counteract this to a degree by making the other end similarly turbulent for their opponents, as this season's defense might be stingier than last year's third-ranked unit. But as the point production tumbles, it will take some of the wins with it.
"The Jazz do have to score, and teams with good defenses of their own will make it very difficult when Utah has certain groups out there," Jared Dubin wrote for the Step Back. "How they counter units content to leave non-shooters...and hell-bent on stopping Gobert at the rim will go a long way toward determining if this version of the Jazz is a souped-up version of the recent Hornets teams, or something more."
Indiana Pacers
4 of 6
2016-17 Record: 42-40
Projected 2017-18 Record: 31-51
Projected Win Decrease: 11
Wherever Paul George went, the 2016-17 Indiana Pacers would follow. He was an in-prime, top-10ish talent, Indy's most important scorer and defender. When he left the floor, Indy's net efficiency plunged 9.4 points per 100 possessions.
He exited the Circle City this summer and took the Pacers' playoff hopes with him. Indy's fate is now tied to the upsides of Myles Turner, Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis and T.J. Leaf. Maybe one or more eventually breaks out in a big way, but the Pacers sans George are a star-less squad.
"Ultimately, to win big, obviously, you've got to have stars," Pacers general manager Chad Buchanan said, per Nate Taylor of the Indianapolis Star. "At some point, you've got hope one of those guys develops into a star."
That isn't happening this season. Could the Pacers have a player selected to this year's All-Star Game? Sure, but that's only because the Eastern Conference candidates were thinned out by offseason exits (George, Jimmy Butler, Carmelo Anthony) and injuries (Gordon Hayward, Isaiah Thomas).
There isn't a transformative talent capable of changing Indy's fortune, as George once did. History doesn't like Oladipo's chances of thriving in a featured scoring role, and expecting greatness from Turner is asking too much too soon of the 21-year-old.
Atlanta Hawks
5 of 6
2016-17 Record: 43-39
Projected 2017-18 Record: 27-55
Projected Win Decrease: 16
We didn't have to use our crystal ball for this prediction. Kent Bazemore did the prognosticating for us.
"It's going to be a tough year," he said after Atlanta's third loss in four tries, per Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Bazemore has been a Hawk since 2014-15, which makes him an elder statesman on the revamped roster. Dennis Schroder is the only other remaining member of that team—a 60-win powerhouse if your memory is foggy—as Atlanta is in the infant stage of an overhaul.
Rookie John Collins will be a highlight-reel regular as a fearless finisher with explosive hops. Taurean Prince has intriguing two-way potential and the diverse skills of a glue guy. Schroder, 24, is young enough to stick around for the youth movement or seasoned enough to fetch a good price on the trade market. To that end, Atlanta has a handful of movable vets who could extract some value in deals.
But this is a foundation-laying year. And that means the loss column is about to swell like a nasty bug bite.
Chicago Bulls
6 of 6
2016-17 Record: 41-41
Projected 2017-18 Record: 24-58
Projected Win Decrease: 17
Is there an NBA franchise in more disarray than the Chicago Bulls? While that's a subjective question without a definitive answer, the fact it makes you think is almost unbelievable, since the Phoenix Suns have already axed former coach Earl Watson and banished starting point guard Eric Bledsoe over a cryptic tweet.
But at least the Suns can say they haven't lost two players to an in-practice punch. Remarkably, the Bulls cannot. Third-year forward Bobby Portis hit fourth-year forward Nikola Mirotic after a shoving skirmish, leaving the former with an eight-game suspension and the latter with facial fractures and a concussion.
And somehow, that isn't Chicago's biggest problem. As ESPN.com's Nick Friedell put it, "The issue for the Bulls' braintrust is that aside from Lauri Markkanen...much of the rest of the roster looks like it is comprised of G-League players."
The Bulls' best player is either the 20-year-old Markkanen (who has three NBA games under his belt) or scoring guard Zach LaVine, who's working his way back from a February ACL tear. Chicago's leading scorer is Justin Holiday, a 28-year-old journeyman with a grotesque 35.3 field-goal percentage. Its highest-paid player is Robin Lopez, who holds career averages of 8.8 points, 5.5 rebounds and 22.9 minutes.
The team hasn't had a losing record since 2007-08. That streak might snap before the All-Star break, which, to be fair, is part of the larger rebuilding strategy. But fans should brace themselves for a frigid winter, even by Windy City standards.
The Bulls' win decrease will be real, spectacular and the Association's worst in 2017-18.
Unless otherwise indicated, all are stats from Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
