Pac-12 Championship 2017: Stanford vs. USC Breakdown, Predictions
Neither the Stanford Cardinal or USC Trojans are in the running for the College Football Playoff, but that won't make their clash in Friday's Pac-12 championship any less intriguing. A conference title is nothing to take lightly, particularly for USC since it hasn't won the league since 2008.
That was three years before the conference created a championship game, something Stanford has won three times since then, including in 2015 over the Trojans.
Stanford comes in as the North champion, finishing in a tie for first with Washington with a 7-2 league record but holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. USC went 8-1 to win the South by two games over Arizona State.
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Follow along as we break down the first power-conference title game of the 2017 season.
When: Friday, Dec. 2 at 8 p.m. ET
Where: Levi's Stadium; Santa Clara, Calif.
Watch: Fox
Live Stream: FoxSportsGo
Head-to-Head Breakdown
| Record | 9-3 (7-2 Pac-12) | 10-2 (8-1 Pac-12) |
| Strength of Schedule | 16th | 26th |
| Total Offense | 394.1 YPG (70th) | 488.6 YPG (13th) |
| Total Defense | 390.3 YPG (60th) | 409.9 YPG (81st) |
| S&P+ Overall Rating (Percentile) | 77.7 (27th) | 83.1 (19th) |
| S&P+ Offense | 32.7 (33rd) | 35.9 (16th) |
| S&P+ Defense | 25.9 (51st) | 26.8 (56th) |
Preview
Stanford and USC's longstanding series with Notre Dame, which features one or the other hosting the Fighting Irish over Thanksgiving weekend, means in many years these teams are forced to start Pac-12 play earlier than the rest of the league. That was the case this season, as USC hosted the Cardinal on Sept. 9 and came away with a 42-24 victory.
Nearly three months later, here we are again. And while a lot has changed for both teams, mostly because of injuries, a lot is still the same.
Stanford has leaned heavily on the running of junior Bryce Love, whose 1,848 rushing yards are second-most in FBS while his 8.6 yards per carry would set the single-season record for players with at least 215 attempts. Love has run for 100 or more yards in all but two games in 2017, the one he missed at Oregon State because of a sprained ankle and the week after, when he had 69 yards on 16 carries while far from 100 percent.
Love's ankle still isn't fully healed yet he's averaged 130.7 yards per game and 6.1 yards per carry with four touchdowns in Stanford's current three-game win streak.
That injury may have been a blessing in disguise for the Cardinal offense, though, since it forced them to become more balanced on offense. That ultimately meant turning to redshirt freshman K.J. Costello at quarterback down the stretch.
Costello completed 61.1 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns—including four against Notre Dame in the regular-season finale—and only two interceptions. Junior Keller Chryst, the starter to begin the season, had eight TDs and four picks and a 54.2 percent completion rate.
Stanford's ball-control offense pairs with a defense that isn't nearly as dominant as past versions but still has enough pieces to be problematic. The most notable are senior defensive tackle Harrison Phillips, who is second in the Pac-12 with 16 tackles for loss, and shutdown cornerback Justin Reid, a junior with five interceptions.
That duo will be integral in slowing down a USC offense that for most of the season has been tough to slow down since there are so many weapons to deal with. The Trojans are one of four teams in FBS to throw for more than 3,500 yards and rush for more than 2,300.
Redshirt sophomore quarterback Sam Darnold hasn't lived up to his massive preseason hype, mostly because of major turnover issues earlier in the season, yet he's still thrown for 3,462 yards and 24 TDs along with five rushing scores. He won't be a Heisman Trophy finalist, but he remains a highly coveted NFL prospect.
"The tape shows an accurate, poised, smart quarterback who is hitting his rhythm well with a young USC offense around him," wrote Bleacher Report's Matt Miller, who has Darnold ranked second on his latest NFL draft big board.
Darnold doesn't have to do it all, not with junior running back Ronald Jones II to hand off to. Jones has run for 1,346 yards and 16 TDs, with 168.5 yards per game and eight scores during USC's four-game win streak. He's averaged 24.5 carries per game in that span compared to 16.3 before that as offensive coordinator Tee Martin has smartly given him more touches.
Throw in a deep receiving corps led by junior Deontay Burnett and rising freshman Tyler Vaughns, and USC's offense is a force to be reckoned with if it doesn't give the ball away, as its 22 turnovers are tied for 109th in FBS.
The Trojans defense is just as star-studded but far less healthy. Only a dozen players have appeared in all 12 games, with most starters missing time at one point or another as USC limped through 12 straight weeks without a bye.
They got this past week off, though, and thus should be refreshed and ready to go while Stanford is playing on short rest for this Friday night tilt.
Prediction: USC 27, Stanford 20
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