NBA Teams with Most to Gain and Lose in Free Agency
Obviously, free agency matters for every team in the NBA.
But for some, like the Portland Trail Blazers, it won't move the needle much. Rip City already has an overcrowded roster with no legitimate holes, and it shouldn't be looking to bring in any new acquisitions unless they come after major trades. Other squads—the Milwaukee Bucks and Memphis Grizzlies, for example—will only be interested in pursuing their own restricted free agents before diving deep into the open market and looking for bench-bound steals.
Of course, the summer months are a bit more stressful for organizations that don't fall into either of those categories. It's those that drew the microscope here.
Plenty have a lot to lose. They could see key players depart for new locations, which forces them into rapid declines down the standings in their respective conferences.
But on the flip side, a handful of teams are looking to use free agency as a springboard toward bigger and better things. Whether they're changing the franchise culture or parlaying cap space into massive additions, they don't want to come out of the year's hottest months in the same shape they entered.
5th Most to Gain: Brooklyn Nets
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The previous braintrust for the Brooklyn Nets took a short-sighted approach that crippled the franchise for years. It traded away a plethora of draft picks for an aging core that never experienced any success in the postseason, and the Sean Marks regime is still trying to recover.
Fortunately for the Nets, Marks is on the right track.
This offseason has already seen the general manager make a number of impressive moves. He used his team's gobs of unfillable cap space to acquire D'Angelo Russell from the Los Angeles Lakers by also absorbing Timofey Mozgov's contract. He added Jarrett Allen with the No. 22 pick of the 2017 NBA draft. And already, Brooklyn's youthful core of Russell, Allen, Caris LeVert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson contains far more upside than even the staunchest homers could've imagined a few months ago.
But he's not done yet.
Brooklyn can't quite offer a max deal this summer, and that's fine. No player worthy of a max was going to consider playing home games in the Barclays Center. It does, however, have the financial flexibility to land a few more impact players and continue dragging itself out of the Eastern Conference's basement.
Overpaying for a scorer such as Dion Waiters, J.J. Redick or Danilo Gallinari is a solid decision, if only because doing so lends legitimacy to an up-and-coming franchise. That level of acquisition won't make the Nets a playoff threat, but at least it will continue the upward trajectory and provide an example to the youngsters populating so many spots on the depth chart.
Brooklyn doesn't have many wins to gain in free agency. But it does have the ability to continue its culture change.
5th Most to Lose: Golden State Warriors
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If there were any serious risk of Stephen Curry or Kevin Durant fleeing the Golden State Warriors after teaming up to win a championship, the Dubs would have more to lose than any other team in the Association. Of course, neither of the two superstars is likely to take a meeting with another team, much less consider departing with any degree of seriousness.
But Golden State isn't out of the woods entirely.
Right now, James Michael McAdoo is a restricted free agent. Matt Barnes, Ian Clark, Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, JaVale McGee, Zaza Pachulia and David West are all hitting the open market in unrestricted fashion, which leaves precious few players on the active roster.
The Warriors should be able to figure this all out. Curry and Durant are almost guaranteed to rejoin Klay Thompson and Draymond Green in early July, and that gives the defending champions a core four that can take down any collection of talent assembled throughout the NBA. More ring-chasing veterans will also flock to the Bay Area, eager to bolster their jewelry collections by playing alongside established greatness.
But this is still a potentially problematic offseason. Iguodala is a serious flight risk, and Livingston has earned the right to chase money from a team with the cap space to actually pay him what he's worth, especially now that he's coming off a postseason in which his role consistently declined.
Nothing is guaranteed in the NBA, and the Warriors have a lot to lose if they're unable to bring together another high-powered bench.
4th Most to Gain: Sacramento Kings
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If the Brooklyn Nets are working to change their culture, the Sacramento Kings are traveling down the same road at a quicker speed. Even after getting a middling return for DeMarcus Cousins—no matter what your thoughts on Buddy Hield may be, just look at the market that's been set for other high-caliber players—the management has started gathering an impressive collection of talent.
With Hield, De'Aaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Justin Jackson, Skal Labissiere, Harry Giles, Willie Cauley-Stein and Georgios Papagiannis, there's significant upside at literally every position. Who's to say a five-man unit of Fox, Hield, Jackson, Giles and Cauley-Stein won't one day be a fearsome lineup?
And despite the roster's increasingly crowded nature, the Kings still have some cash to blow this offseason. They could very well add a few veterans to the youthful depth chart and begin making an immediate push up the Western Conference standings.
"The Kings need more talent and veteran leadership on the roster. Temple is the only player over 30. Big man Kosta Koufos is 28 and everyone else on the roster is 24 and under when the season opens in October," James Ham wrote for NBC Sports Bay Area.
"Expect the Kings to be active on the open market. They also make an attractive trade partner with their ability to absorb contracts. It should be a wild couple of weeks in Sacramento as the Kings look to improve their roster."
4th Most to Lose: Indiana Pacers
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Even if the Indiana Pacers are unable to find a new home for Paul George that nets them a reasonable return and he remains on the roster for 2017-18, they could go sliding in the wrong direction rather dramatically.
Jeff Teague is an unrestricted free agent, and there's no guarantee he returns for a second season in blue and gold. The team is already preparing for his departure with a rather unorthodox idea. According to Gregg Doyel of the Indianapolis Star, "For Pacers rebuild, source says Kevin Pritchard is considering Lance Stephenson as the point guard. Lance has lost 10-plus lbs, looks great."
That's simply not a recipe for remaining in playoff contention. But that's not even where the potential trouble stops.
In 2016-17, C.J. Miles drilled 41.3 percent of his triples while taking 5.4 attempts per game from beyond the arc. And he was even better in spot-up situations. Just take a peek at the top-five scorers in spot-up points per possession, looking only at the 183 players who suited up in at least 40 games and took no fewer than two relevant shots per appearance:
- C.J. Miles: 1.34 points per possession
- Stephen Curry: 1.33
- Otto Porter Jr.: 1.31
- Kemba Walker: 1.30
- Kyle Lowry: 1.28
That's not a bad list of names to be atop, but Miles could be plying his trade in a new location next season. He's also an unrestricted free agent, and losing him would push Indiana's offensive proficiency down into a lower tier, regardless of what happens with their other prominent players.
3rd Most to Gain: Philadelphia 76ers
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Markelle Fultz. Joel Embiid. Ben Simmons. Robert Covington.*
The primary pieces are assembled, but now comes the tough part: moving away from just trusting The Process and actually using The Process to win games. To do so, the Philadelphia 76ers can't be content stockpiling youth, but instead have to acquire a few veterans who can help catapult them up the Eastern Conference standings.
J.J. Redick, for example, could be a perfect addition. As The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor explained, he'd find himself in an ideal situation with a team that's already rumored to be pursuing him:
"Multiple league sources I’ve spoken to expect the Sixers and Nets to make a hard push at Redick. Were he to go to either of those teams, Redick could receive an opportunity unlike anything he’s had before. He is one of the greatest 3-point shooters in league history, and is coming off a season in which he averaged a career-high six 3-point attempts per game. That’s a lot of triples, but it’s not enough. Even Sixers swingman Robert Covington averaged more last season, at 6.1 per game, and he shot only 33.3 percent. A gunslinger of Redick’s caliber should be averaging about 8.5 treys, in the same range as Klay Thompson or Eric Gordon.
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Money, whether it's being used in pursuit of Redick or another veteran, should be no object.
The Sixers are swimming in cap space, and they can afford to hand a shorter deal with a gargantuan salary to a player who isn't quite worth that much cash. Given how many rookie contracts they have occupying key parts of the depth chart, they're one of the few teams with the luxury of overpaying without severe repercussions.
Ultimately, the win total isn't what matters most in Philadelphia. Far more important is establishing an upward trajectory that puts this downtrodden franchise back in the playoffs sometime in the near future.
3rd Most to Lose: Toronto Raptors
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If the Toronto Raptors want to retain a snowball's chance in hell of dethroning the Cleveland Cavaliers, they simply can't afford to lose Kyle Lowry. Even though DeMar DeRozan has developed into a tremendous scoring option out of the Canadian backcourt, he's nowhere near as important as the starting point guard.
With Lowry on the floor, the Raptors outscored the opposition by 6.5 points per 100 possessions during the 2016-17 campaign. When he sat, that number plunged to minus-1.6, per nbawowy.com. And it gets worse, because in the 1,384 minutes played with DeRozan on and Lowry off, Toronto was actually on the wrong end of a minus-2.6 net rating.
Cory Joseph and Delon Wright have some untapped potential, but they can't possibly replicate the production of a man who sits on the fringes of the league's top 10. Whether he's in that select group is up for debate; his impact on the team shouldn't be.
Toronto also has to worry about Serge Ibaka's free agency, though it seems like he'll re-sign with the team in expeditious fashion. P.J. Tucker and Patrick Patterson are also unrestricted free agents who can either be replaced by incumbent options or brought back on relatively inexpensive deals.
But this is all about Lowry.
Lose him, and Toronto's days as a threat to earn one of the East's top seeds are all but over.
2nd Most to Gain: Miami Heat
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For the Miami Heat, the time to strike is now.
Goran Dragic, who's arguably the most important piece in head coach Erik Spoelstra's offense, is already 31 years old. Hassan Whiteside is 28, which means a decline—a moderate one, don't worry—could be imminent as he begins moving away from his athletic prime with a game that's reliant on his physical tools.
So while it's important for Miami to retain Dion Waiters and continue building up Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow, it would also behoove the team to pursue a big-name free agent. Danilo Gallinari and Blake Griffin are just a few examples of potential upgrades who should serve as legitimate targets.
The Heat continue to have plenty of appeal while Pat Riley runs the show, and they should—at the very least—land meetings with their primary targets. But just imagine what might happen if they fail to sign any marquee players and head into 2017-18 with a starting five comprised of Dragic, Richardson, Winslow, Josh McRoberts and Whiteside?
That's simply not enough talent to compete for anything more than a low-level playoff seed in the Eastern Conference, and it could encourage the front office to start shopping key pieces. Dragic, in particular, isn't compatible with a long-term project, and he could easily be traded for future assets.
All it takes to change the entire mentality is one big signing.
2nd Most to Lose: Los Angeles Clippers
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Chris Paul is already gone, thanks to a trade with the Houston Rockets that was first reported by The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski. And while that brought a surprising amount back in return—Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Sam Dekker and Montrezl Harrell should all have sizable roles in 2017-18—it doesn't prevent the Los Angeles Clippers from feeling the pressure.
Blake Griffin might be following Paul out the door, as he'll have a number of competitive organizations coming after him. Though it might be appealing to serve as the Clippers' unquestioned leader with all pressure to win alleviated, filling that role requires turning down pursuits from the Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Miami Heat and others.
And then there's J.J. Redick, who has served in an integral role with his sharpshooting habits over the last few seasons.
"I haven't even mentioned the name JJ Redick. JJ Redick is walking. He is not gonna be back," ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst explained on SportsCenter after Paul was traded, as transcribed by CBS Sports' Jack Maloney. "That was the worst kept secret in the NBA for the last couple of months."
Re-signing Redick and Griffin could've allowed the Clippers to pair them with DeAndre Jordan and remain moderately competitive. But losing both and entering 2017-18 with a potential starting five comprised of unproven pieces, Beverley and Jordan?
That spells trouble.
Most to Gain: Boston Celtics
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The Boston Celtics are set up in an almost unfairly strong position.
This isn't just because they have a bevy of first-round picks and young up-and-comers to dangle in front of other teams on the trade market. Should they fail in their pursuit of Paul George, they can still make plenty of noise while chasing after true free agents.
If Boston chooses to renounce rights on all its free agents, cut ties with its non-guaranteed players (Jordan Mickey and Tyler Zeller), rescind Kelly Olynyk's qualifying offer (Wojnarowski reports this is a strong possibility) and then dump a few salaries, it can create max space. And from there, it can get its hands on a player of Blake Griffin or Paul Millsap's caliber.
But if it's not willing to take that much dynamite to the roster, it can still go after second-tier free agents such as Danilo Gallinari. Options abound, and they all make Boston that much better. Even if we dive into the worse of these two scenarios, the Celtics should be breathing down the neck of the Cleveland Cavaliers—at least during the regular season.
A lineup of Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Gallinari and Al Horford is terrifying. It becomes even more goosebump-inducing if Gallinari is replaced by Millsap/Griffin, or if George is somehow thrown into the mix when general manager Danny Ainge acquiesces to the Indiana Pacers' demands.
Either way, Boston has room to improve upon its 2016-17 level, and it was already operating rather well.
Most to Lose: Utah Jazz
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Gordon Hayward and George Hill are two pieces the Utah Jazz can't afford to lose. Unfortunately, they're both unrestricted free agents who will inevitably be heavily pursued by other organizations until they put ink to paper.
Per nbawowy.com, the Jazz posted the following net ratings in relevant situations:
| Hayward On/Hill On | 9.3 |
| Hayward On/Hill Off | 0.8 |
| Hayward Off/Hill On | 5.9 |
| Hayward Off/Hill Off | minus-2.5 |
That's troubling enough.
But the Jazz could also lose Joe Ingles, who emerged as one of the league's most underrated players while becoming a two-way standout in 2016-17. Shelvin Mack and Jeff Withey, two pieces who provided a bit more depth in Salt Lake City, are also unrestricted free agents.
Were it not for health, Utah would've emerged as a serious contender for one of the three best seeds in the Western Conference. But the pesky injury imp kept nipping at its heels throughout the year, and now the window is perilously close to slamming shut.
If everyone returns, Utah can put a scare into the Golden State Warriors—so long as they also stay healthy and see improvement from young contributors such as Dante Exum and Rodney Hood. But if Hayward and Hill depart, there's no easy way to replace their production, especially since the Jazz haven't emerged as a hot landing spot for top-tier free agents.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball Reference, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com.
