How Sacramento Kings Should Approach 2017 NBA Draft
Following last year's DeMarcus Cousins trade, there's a different pre-draft feel for the Sacramento Kings.
There can be no postseason delusions now—no misplaced hopes regarding a .500 record or the eighth seed or competitiveness of any kind. This is a full rebuild in its earliest stages, and though the organization may not be altogether comfortable with its newfound embrace of realism, this is the right place for the Kings to be.
Several more losing seasons loom ahead, adding to the running total of 11 straight.
But at least the losing will be in service of long-term goals. Buddy Hield, Willie Cauley-Stein and Skal Labissiere will take their lumps and, hopefully, learn from them. Head coach Dave Joerger can cultivate identity and instill a collective focus without Cousins clouding everything.
For the first time in over a decade, failure will mean something.
With two top-10 picks and a roster full of holes, the Kings head into the 2017 draft looking to build a foundation.
Here's how they avoid screwing it up.
Best Player Available
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Sacramento has specific needs, which we'll get to shortly.
But in broad terms, this is an organization without a transformative talent at any position. There are no obvious All-Stars on the roster, and you'd even be hard pressed to find a guy capable of starting for most other teams in the league.
I'm not sure there's ever an excuse for drafting by positional need; rookies are too uncertain, their developmental arcs too protracted to assume the small forward you take today will fill a niche right away. Maybe he'll fill it in three years, but by then, who knows what your other deficiencies will be?
Maybe if you're a championship contender somehow picking at the top of the lottery, and you see an NBA-ready option that perfectly addresses a key weakness, you take that guy ahead of a more talented option at another spot. But that's such a specific scenario, and even then, I'm not sure the logic checks out.
The Kings, of course, are in no such position.
They need talent. Everywhere.
So if that means using their two top-10 picks on big men who might compete with Labissiere and Cauley-Stein for minutes, so be it. Draft those frontcourt rookies, and let them fight for playing time.
Sacramento has seen 12 NBA starts from Labissiere, 60 from Cauley-Stein and 55 from Hield. They're hardly entrenched as stars-in-waiting.
This is the advice for every team in the draft, but it especially applies to the need-everything Kings: Best. Player. Available.
Know Your Point Guards
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Having said all that, the Kings should zero in on someone who'll run their offense for the next 5-9 years.
That doesn't mean reaching for the fifth-best point guard if, somehow, the first four picks are all players at that position (though it might be as many as three of the first four). It means doing every scrap of homework on De'Aaron Fox and Dennis Smith, two options likely to be available when the Kings' first pick comes up at No. 5.
Is Fox's shot so broken that he simply can't survive in a league where the pull-up three is a prerequisite to point guard excellence?
Did Smith's bouts of terrible body language and mental checkouts on defense signal questionable leadership?
Both have immense potential.
Fox is obscenely fast, can run a pick-and-roll and defends with tenacity. At the absolute worst, he profiles as an elite game-changing spark plug off the bench—a tempo-pusher who'll speed up the game and wreak havoc. Sort of a Patty Mills with way more off-the-bounce juice and way less shooting. You want more than that from a No. 5 pick, but there's something to be said for a high floor.
If Fox learns to hit a jumper and finishes a bit better at the rim, he's got a John Wall ceiling.
Smith has all the physical tools to be great, with explosive bounce standing out as a defining trait. But he has to improve as an intuitive playmaker, and his competitiveness on defense must get better.
If Jayson Tatum, Jonathan Isaac or another player the Kings like more is available, they should punt on the point guard decision until No. 10. But if, as seems likely, they need to snag their 1 of the future here, they'd better know who they want.
Don't Trade Unless It's a No-Brainer
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It's tempting to discourage the Kings from trading under any circumstances.
A new arena and the relative sanity of moving Cousins hasn't stopped the franchise from projecting an air of instability.
Ailene Voisin of the Sacramento Bee noted how recent front-office additions Luke Bornn and Scott Perry are restoring credibility, but president Chris Granger's resignation signals the Kings are still traffickers in organizational chaos.
Any big swings or asset exchanges make the Kings feel more unstable. That's not fair, but it's where they've put themselves—years away from earning the benefit of the doubt.
If the Lakers hadn't sent D'Angelo Russell to the Brooklyn Nets, per Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical, he would have been worth at least the No. 10 pick. But with him off the market, unless the Phoenix Suns come around dangling Eric Bledsoe for cheap, or some other team offers something undeniable, Sacramento should stand pat.
The Kings should keep their pair of selections and give themselves as many cracks at a franchise-changer as possible.
Get Your Big Board Right: Pick No. 5
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Things can change, and we don't know who'll be available for the Kings' first selection, but it always helps to have your hierarchy established ahead of time.
Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball will be off the board for certain. Here's how the Kings should have their prospects ordered at No. 5, excluding those two surefire top-three selections.
1. Jonathan Isaac, F, Florida State — Isaac is a 6'11", multi-positional forward with a 7'1" wingspan, a defensive motor and the potential to develop his three-point shot into a true weapon. He's thin, isn't a killer one-on-one threat and might get pushed around a bit early on. But he plays hard, has clear offensive skill and looks like an ideally versatile defender in the modern, switch-happy NBA.
2. De'Aaron Fox, G, Kentucky — The busted jumper is scary, but Fox is a blisteringly fast transition pusher who has legitimate point guard instincts.
3. Josh Jackson, F, Kansas — A 6'8" athletic stud with the physical tools to change the game on both ends, Jackson does everything well but score efficiently. He can be a playmaker from the wing and defend several positions, but if he doesn't improve a mechanically iffy shot and finish non-dunks around the rim better, he might be more of a role player than a star. The upside is immense, though.
4. Jayson Tatum, F, Duke — The scary comps for Tatum include Rudy Gay and Danny Granger—two scoring forwards whose shot creation made them more about volume than efficiency. And the Kings saw Gay perform up close for a couple of years, so they know what they might be getting into. But Tatum is a fluid initiator of his own offense, and there's a good chance he can develop other areas of his game to contribute in several ways.
5. Dennis Smith, G, North Carolina State — We already hit the athleticism and energy tradeoff, so maybe the stats should take on the focus now. ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton has Smith as the No. 4 overall prospect, based largely on a wins-above-replacement figure that tops Fultz's rookie-season projections. If Joerger lights a fire under him, Smith's first pro season could feature numbers as good as the 18.1 points, 4.6 rebounds and 6.2 assists he produced as a freshman.
Get Your Big Board Right: Pick No. 10
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If anyone from the No. 5 section is available at 10, the Kings should take him. Pretty simple.
Otherwise, here's how they ought to order their options for their other lottery pick.
1. Lauri Markkanen, F, Arizona — Essentially a 7-foot guard, Markannen doesn't defend or rebound well, but he'd be a devastating offensive weapon on a Kings team that needs one. The Arizona product is a lights-out shooter from deep (42.3 percent as a freshman) who can spot up, attack closeouts with a surprising off-the-dribble game and even come off screens. If the Kings nab a ball-handler at No. 5, he and Markkanen could form an offense-defining pick-and-pop duo. He might even be worth a look with Sacramento's fifth pick.
2. Malik Monk, G, Kentucky — Scoring matters, right? The Kings could add the 6'3" Monk to a backcourt that already includes Buddy Hield and then just hope one of them develops facilitating instincts. Monk shot 39.7 percent from deep in college and has combo-guard potential—complete with serious athleticism and deep range. Even if the Kings take a point guard at No. 5, Monk's upside makes him worthy here.
3. Frank Ntilikina, G, France — Ntilikina will almost certainly be gone here, as the New York Knicks and Dallas Mavericks both have eyes for the raw 18-year-old point guard. But if he's available somehow, the Kings could do worse than committing to his cranked-up defensive motor and super high ceiling.
4. Donovan Mitchell, G, Louisville — Nearly 21, it'd be nice if Mitchell were more fully formed. But the athleticism and defensive chops are locked in, which means the point guard skills and shooting stroke can take their time developing. Avery Bradley feels like a good comp here, and more offensive diversity could make Mitchell an even better player than the Boston Celtics guard. Plus, Sacramento needs someone who'll get after it on D.
5. Zach Collins, C, Gonzaga — OG Anunoby and Luke Kennard are options here, but Collins could be a true anchor on both ends. Though there's less call for a post-up scorer than ever these days, Collins showed low-volume flashes of a perimeter game (47.6 percent from long range on 21 attempts) and can score facing up. On D, he moves well and may be able to handle quicker forwards, but he must get stronger. He and Labissiere would give the Kings a couple of exciting frontcourt weapons.
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