Top Factors That Could Sink Oakland Raiders This Season
At this point in the offseason, there's widespread optimism for most fanbases. After the Oakland Raiders secured the rights to running back Marshawn Lynch, locals and analysts bought stock in the Silver and Black as Super Bowl contenders in 2017.
We can all see how well the season can pan out for the Raiders with an iconic running back joining a 12-4 team with a young quarterback whose production placed his name among the top passers in the league for the 2016 campaign. Don't forget a pair of 1,000-yard receivers on the perimeter. By the way, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Khalil Mack, leads the league in sacks (26) over the past two seasons.
There's enough production, positivity and hometown mojo to feel the excitement leading up to the 2017 season.
However, only one team walks away with the Lombardi Trophy in February; the other 31 teams ultimately fall short. Despite their status as a legitimate contender, what could possibly go wrong for the Raiders in the upcoming year?
Ken Norton-John Pagano Experiment Goes Awry
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The Raiders provided a not-so-subtle hint that defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. needed help with a struggling unit. Oakland allowed the most yards per play (6.1) during the previous season.
On Tuesday, new defensive assistant John Pagano revealed his objectives for the defense.
"I have a job to do, and Coach Del Rio told me what I needed to do," Pagano said. "The first thing was to improve our overall communication as a defense, and it starts in the back end."
He further emphasized the need to cut down on big plays allowed over the top.
"The No. 1 thing we got to be able to do, you got to eliminate those explosive plays. It's a focus that you have to hit in our OTAs right now and in the offseason," Pagano said. "You can't let the ball get over your head."
After watching cornerbacks David Amerson and Sean Smith struggle to keep the action in front of them last season, you have to wonder if the secondary has the personnel to fix the issue. Rookie Gareon Conley has the agility and athleticism to match up with deep threats, but how quickly will he pick up the defensive scheme and play significant snaps?
Unless Pagano instructs the back end, how do the players respond to two different voices on the sideline? The defensive assistants have to bark orders in unison or risk relaying a convoluted message to the field.
Donald Penn Shows His Age
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At 34 years old, offensive tackle Donald Penn is the third-oldest Raider on the roster behind kicker Sebastian Janikowski (39) and long snapper Jon Condo (35).
It's a young man's game, but Penn put together his second Pro Bowl-worthy season in 10 years as a pro. He only allowed one sack, but it sticks in the back of his mind due to the injury repercussions of the play—Derek Carr going down with a broken fibula.
Without a clear-cut replacement at left tackle in line, the Raiders will rely on Penn, in his 11th season, to protect the team's crown jewel in the pocket against talented pass-rushers such as Von Miller, Justin Houston and Joey Bosa.
Oakland already has a question mark at right tackle and can't afford to see a drop-off on the opposite side. The AFC West would feast on Carr if the offensive line crumbles on the edges.
Beast Mode's Tank Empties Early
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For the first half of the season, the Raiders may limit Lynch's touches to preserve his body for a strong finish. Despite missing the entire 2016 campaign, he still ranks No. 4 in rush attempts (2,144) among all ball-carriers between the 2007 and 2016 seasons.
To the locals in Oakland, Beast Mode takes a superhuman form. However, he's still vulnerable to wear and tear throughout a four-to-five-month season. Lynch will run behind a stellar offensive line, but it's more important for him to reach his peak performance at the right time.
Ideally, Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington should see heavier workloads in September and October. It's beneficial to instill confidence in the second-year players in case Lynch misses a few games during the season or goes down with an injury.
We all expect Lynch's excitement in playing for his hometown team to carry him through the year, but his body has to respond with his will on the field. As the featured bruising back, he's going to take plenty of hits in the trenches and at the goal line.
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Reggie McKenzie Overlooks Middle Linebacker Void
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During organized team activities, middle linebacker Cory James has taken first-team reps, per San Francisco Chronicle reporter Vic Tafur. Barring an impressive training camp performance for the second-year player, the current front-runner at the position should make fans wary.
General manager Reggie McKenzie has struggled to find the right piece at middle linebacker over the past few seasons. Perry Riley Jr. filled in adequately for 11 games during the 2016 season, but he remains a free agent.
As noted above, Pagano talked about building strong communication among his defenders. It's crucial to field a middle linebacker who can set up, adjust and relay the coaching staff's calls from the sideline.
Ben Heeney and James have five starts apiece at linebacker. Inexperience at a leadership position on defense could hurt the team's communication progress early in the season. Fortunately, McKenzie should have multiple free-agent veteran choices late in the offseason.
Mario Edwards Becomes Mr. Unreliable
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The Raiders run defense ranked No. 13 in 2015 and allowed seven teams to eclipse 100 rushing yards. The unit ranked No. 23 in the previous season and surrendered 100-plus yards on the ground in 11 regular-season games.
While it's a group effort to stop the run, interior defensive lineman Mario Edwards Jr.'s absence significantly hurt the front line. The Raiders' 2016 second-round pick, Jihad Ward, couldn't fill the void as a reliable run-stopper or interior pass-rusher in a starting role.
In a short time, Edwards has shown the ability to occupy blocks and fight through offensive linemen to produce stops, which also helps pass-rushers reach the quarterback.
On the other hand, Edwards has missed as many games (16) as he's played through his first two seasons. The fact that he's already suffered two significant injuries, one neck and one hip, could indicate further difficulties in staying healthy through a full season.
We know what Edwards brings to the defense, but how long can he stay available?
Insurmountable Pressure to Deliver Super Bowl to Oakland
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When Ice Cube makes an appearance on ESPN's First Take to say the Raiders owe Oakland a Super Bowl, you know there's extra heat on this team to deliver the goods.
After NFL owners approved the Raiders' move to Las Vegas, the team has an uncertain window to win the Super Bowl while still taking live snaps in Oakland.
Every year players set out to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, but this season means something completely different for the Raiders. After several poor seasons in the AFC West cellar, the team reclaimed its contender status, but the locals may not see the full benefits after supporting the franchise through rough times.
With Lynch, an Oakland native, on the roster, expectations and optimism have reached Super Bowl-or-bust levels. The added pressure can either produce champions or cause this budding team to fold.
The Raiders will have a legitimate shot at going out with a bang, but individuals have to maintain composure and play within themselves. None of the players should feel like they're auditioning to save the town. There's no need for hero football—play with pride and poise.
Stats provided by NFL.com and Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.
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