Predicting Oakland Raiders' Stat Leaders in 2017
For the Oakland Raiders, the value in the win column means the most in chasing a division title, but a few individual performances will catch your eye during the 2017 season.
Quarterback Derek Carr seems ready to participate in another full offseason program with new weapons added to the offense. Wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson, tight end Jared Cook and running back Marshawn Lynch should elevate an already dynamic unit.
Now factor in the growth of developing players such as running backs Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. New offensive coordinator Todd Downing has inherited a top-five offense with so much room for creativity.
Oakland ranked dead last in sacks in the previous campaign, but defensive assistant John Pagano's pass-rush schemes should intensify pocket pressure at the very least, which, in turn, increases the probability of sacks and interceptions.
Oftentimes, numbers only tell a partial story when dissecting an NFL season. However, it's good to see production in plain sight with yearly statistics. For the upcoming season, we'll project full stat lines for leaders under each major category.
Passing Leaders
1 of 5
Derek Carr: 4,178 passing yards, 34 TDs, 8 INTs
Connor Cook: 279 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
EJ Manuel: N/A
Don't focus on the top name under this statistical group. We already know the offense goes as far as Carr can drive them downfield. Pay close attention to his predicted stat line, specifically career-highs in passing yards and touchdowns.
General manager Reggie McKenzie has done a good job in adding more talent around his franchise quarterback every year after the 2014 campaign. This offseason followed the same trend. At tight end, Clive Walford with Cook allow the offense to utilize two-tight end sets in the red zone, which provides two big-body options for Carr.
Patterson's ability to beat defenders in open space potentially adds more yards after the catch. Furthermore, Richard's production as a receiver in the previous season should help him earn more looks in the flat without running back Latavius Murray in the huddle.
Against teams like the New York Jets in Week 2 and the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16, backup quarterback Connor Cook may be able to see the field in garbage time.
Rushing Leaders
2 of 5
Marshawn Lynch: 196 attempts, 902 yards, 14 touchdowns, 4.6 yards per carry
DeAndre Washington: 98 attempts, 510 yards, 4 touchdowns, 5.2 yards per carry
Jalen Richard: 87 attempts, 473 yards, 2 touchdowns, 5.4 yards per carry
After a year off, Lynch will return to the NFL to lead the Raiders backfield in rushing yards and touchdowns. Expect the coaching staff to start Beast Mode off with a lighter workload—about 10-12 carries in the first half of the season before the schedule hits a tough five-game stretch after the Week 10 bye.
Lynch should average almost a touchdown per game behind this offensive line and within an explosive overall unit. Oakland will have plenty of opportunities to set up jumbo packages inside the opponent's 10-yard line.
In their sophomore seasons, Washington and Richard will see slight bumps in attempts and production as ball-carriers, which eats into Lynch's overall production.
Fortunately, the Raiders don't need their 31-year-old featured back to carry an immense load. Oakland's three-back rotation keeps its ball-carriers fresh and allows the young assets to develop with a decent amount of carries per contest.
Receiving Leaders
3 of 5
Amari Cooper: 87 catches, 1,210 yards, 7 touchdowns
Michael Crabtree: 90 catches, 1,089 yards, 8 touchdowns
Jalen Richard: 41 catches, 413 yards, 4 touchdowns
In 2016, wide receiver Amari Cooper improved on his drops. In 2017, he may see variety in where he lines up under Downing. Regardless of pre-snap position, he's entering his third season with Carr, which bodes well for the AC-DC connection. The two-time Pro Bowler will see career-high totals in catches, yards and touchdowns.
Wideout Michael Crabtree will continue to lead the offense in touchdowns. He's a savvy veteran who knows how to create separation in the end zone. Since signing with the team during the 2015 offseason, No. 15 has led the club in scores, with 17 over the past two seasons.
Despite the two new receiving options, how does Richard reach the top three among pass-catchers in 2017?
Last season, wide receiver Seth Roberts ranked third in receptions (38), receiving yards (397) and tied for second in touchdowns (five). There's a good chance Patterson wins the slot position battle. If not, the newcomer will take catches away from his competition. The front office's decision to add Cook restricts Walford, who ranked fourth in receptions and yards in the previous campaign.
Last year, Murray caught 33 passes as a reliable receving back. Without him, and with the need to keep Lynch fresh for postseason football, Richard will soak up more targets. Washington should see an uptick in receptions as well. However, the former undrafted rookie out of Southern Mississippi flashed an uncanny ability to evade defenders in the open field.
Look for Washington to build on his strong end to the previous season as a ball-carrier. Richard will take over as the primary short-option threat for catch-and-run situations.
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Sack Leaders
4 of 5
Khalil Mack: 16 sacks
Bruce Irvin: 10 sacks
Mario Edwards Jr.: 5 sacks
It's a tough stretch to envision the defense evolving into a top-10 unit overnight. Instead, there'll be incremental improvements. Starting with defensive end Mario Edwards Jr. going through a full season, the pass rush could take the next step under Pagano.
In his fourth season, Mack seems poised to log a career-high number of sacks for a single season. Despite slow starts when it comes to bringing down quarterbacks, he's finished strong in November and December over the past two years.
In 2016, Pagano helped Los Angeles Chargers rookie Joey Bosa achieve Defensive Rookie of the Year honors after a 10.5-sack campaign. He also put together a strong front seven as a defensive coordinator for his previous team.
If Pagano brings his effective 3-4 alignment schemes with him, Bruce Irvin, Mack and Edwards would benefit in sack numbers and tackles, resulting in a loss of yardage.
Interception Leaders
5 of 5
Reggie Nelson: 4 INTs
David Amerson: 3 INTs
Gareon Conley: 3 INTs
Don't be fooled by safety Reggie Nelson's five interceptions during the previous campaign. Four of the five turnovers occurred on last-ditch efforts before halftime or the end of games. Nonetheless, he's going to hold on to his starting position at free safety for a significant part of―if not―the entire season.
As the last line of defense, Nelson's four interceptions will lead the team in that category. Expect cornerback David Amerson to bounce back from a mediocre year. Gareon Conley's ability to play in the slot and on the outside will create several opportunities to rack up takeaways.
Whether Conley matches up against a quicker receiver on the outside or takes snaps as the slot cornerback in nickel situations, he exhibits enough ball-tracking skills to force turnovers. Based on raw capabilities alone, he's clearly the most versatile cornerback on the depth chart, which allows the coaching staff to place him in different situations with confidence in his ability to influence the game.
Stats provided by NFL.com and Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.
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