5 Low-Cost Targets for New York Knicks in NBA Free Agency
The New York Knicks have problems. Lots and lots of problems. And the biggest problem of all is that there's no easy solution to all of their problems.
They have a superstar in Carmelo Anthony who is unhappy. They have Joakim Noah locked into a very large, very bad contract. And they just opted to keep Phil Jackson, who created most of this mess, as the president of basketball operations for two more years.
Good times.
The Knicks' biggest mistake over the years has always been trying to hit the home run instead of appreciating the value of a single (if you'll pardon the cross-sports metaphor). There may or may not be news of a major trade or signing out of the Big Apple this summer, but a large part of the team's future will be the little things.
Specifically, which players could they sign who fit the team's needs and exceed their contract value? Finding a few of them could start reversing the Knicks' trajectory.
Defining "low cost" is difficult with another large bump in the salary cap. It's a capitalism thing. When money is greater than supply, inflation happens. So, while some of these free agents may end up making eight figures a season, bear in mind that's not excessive at this point.
Still, each of these guys is obtainable for about $12 million or less (about half the going rate of a max contract). And each could outperform their deal. I listed them here in order of risk, with the safest choice being first and the highest potential rewards last.
5. JaMychal Green, PF
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JaMychal Green is a 6'9" power forward who shoots 38.2 percent from three and plays solid defense. He's not going to lead the Knicks offense, but he could help revolutionize it.
He can both defend well and help stretch the court for Kristaps Porzingis and/or any penetrating point guards the Knicks might add through the draft or free agency.
Green also posted a respectable 0.57 Defensive Real Plus-Minus, per ESPN.com, and yielded just .82 points per possession when he was the primary defender on the play, per SynergyTech.com, which places him in the 88th percentile.
Green started most of the season for the Memphis Grizzlies, but he's come off the bench the last three games of the postseason as Zach Randolph has stepped back into the starting lineup. Green has responded with a solid 11.0 points per game, 56.5 field-goal percentage and 50 percent from deep while adding 4.3 boards in 24.8 minutes.
Green is about as safe a signing as the Knicks could make. He won't put up stellar numbers, but he would have a positive impact with his all-around play and professionalism.
4. James Johnson, SF/PF
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James Johnson was fantastic last year for the Miami Heat, averaging 12.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks in 27.4 minutes. His Player Efficiency Rating was 17.0, and his true shooting percentage was 56.4.
On the defensive end, he guarded multiple positions and gave up only 0.81 points per possession, per Synergy, which ranked in the 90th percentile.
James Herbert of CBSSports.com opined: "Johnson outperformed his $4 million deal with Miami and is now in line for a raise. The question is whether potential employers believe that he will be able to stay in the amazing condition he was in with the Heat."
Herbert continued:
"Johnson had always showed flashes of the multidimensional game that was so crucial to Miami this season, but his career year was the result of him getting in the best shape of his life. There aren't a lot of players who can do the things Johnson did this year -- he played some center, ran pick-and-rolls and guarded every position, sort of like a budget version of Giannis Antetokounmpo.
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The risk, then, is whether you get that Johnson. Was this just contract-year Johnson, or is the player you signed going to be the same who plays next year?
A defensive presence who can shoot threes (34.1 percent) and be a complement to Porzingis is a plus. Johnson can also play the 3 or 4 and would fit together with Carmelo Anthony (if they don't trade him) as well.
3. Nikola Mirotic, PF
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There's little question that Nikola Mirotic's performance has been inconsistent in Chicago. There are times when he looks like he could be an All-Star, and then there are times you wonder how he's even playing in this league. His win/loss splits are about as extreme as you'll see.
Over his career, according to Basketball-Reference.com, he's averaged 12.0 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.4 assists on 60.6 true shooting in wins, and 9.2 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.1 assists and 48.6 percent true shooting in losses. His personal offensive rating is 114 when his team comes out on top and 96 when it doesn't. His defensive rating suffers from the same disparity—98 in victory, 111 in defeat.
While he's not a "great" defender, he's decent when engaged, but he's only engaged when his shot is falling. Otherwise, he tends to get moody and lost, pouting when he should be paying attention to what the other team's offense is doing.
The Jekyll-and-Hyde performance is why Mirotic might scare off teams from offering a big salary. But there are a couple things going in the Knicks' favor.
Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg coached the two years that Mirotic's career stagnated. It's possible that with some decent coaching, Mirotic can improve.
Coach Jeff Hornacek, even with the Knicks, has done a decent job with player development (see: Hernangomez, Willy). While he was with the Phoenix Suns, Hornacek coached Most Improved Player winner Goran Dragic. So, we know that he can help.
It's still a bit of a gamble, but one that, if it pays off, could result in a valuable contract. Then again, Knicks fans might have had their fill of Bulls castoffs by now.
2. Dion Waiters, SG
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The question and fear concerning Dion Waiters will be if "Waiters Island" was a real thing or not. Waiters unquestionably had the best season of his career. But even saying he had the best "season" of his career is overstating things.
It's probably more accurate to say he had the best stretch of his career. And to be fair, he was downright good for a 22-game stretch, scoring 18.9 points per game and contributing 4.9 assists while shooting 46.1 percent from the field and 44.2 percent from deep. His effective field-goal percentage was 54.6, and his true shooting percentage was 56.0.
The catch here is that stretch goes against everything else in his career, which is why the Heat got him for $2.9 million. Before this season, Waiters shot just 41.1 percent from the field and 33.4 percent from deep. He was your typical, high-volume (23.2 percent usage), low-efficiency (48.8 true shooting percentage) scorer.
Technically, Waiters has an option for next year at $3 million, but he and everyone else knows he's played himself into a better contract than that. There's the rather large risk, though, that Waiters Island will sink.
1. Trey Burke, PG
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Trey Burke was the ninth pick of the 2013 draft. Technically, the Minnesota Timberwolves picked him, but he was part of a draft-day deal that sent him to the Utah Jazz in exchange for Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad. After three years of failing to find his way there, Utah dealt him to the Washington Wizards for a 2021 second-round pick.
Last season, Burke averaged 14.6 points and 5.1 assists per 36 minutes, shot 44.3 percent from deep and 45.5 percent overall. He is not particularly great in the pick-and-roll, according to Synergy, but his 0.771 points per possession is in the 43rd percentile.
Where he stands out is as a shooter. He finished with 1.431 points per possession, which put him in the 99th percentile. On defense, he gave up .92 points per possession when he was the primary defender, which is not great but is good enough for the 45th percentile.
There are some massive caveats to that.
His Real Plus-Minus was third-worst of any point guard in the NBA, per ESPN. His DRPM was the fourth-worst in the league. Physically, he's undersized (6'1", 191 pounds), and he doesn't have elite athleticism to compensate (as noted on his Insider page).
But he does do that one thing really well—hit open shots. And if the Knicks are looking for someone who can come off the bench, play off another guard and keep themselves in games, there is a good chance that Burke could have himself a breakout year. There's also not likely to be a huge bidding war for him.
Since he's a restricted free agent, the trick will be determining the minimum the Knicks can offer him where the Wizards don't feel inclined to match. The sweet spot will probably be right around $8 million. And if the Knicks can get a rotation piece for that in today's market, that would be a steal.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
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