Top 5 Golden State Warriors Storylines as 2017 NBA Playoffs Approach
The 2015-16 Golden State Warriors fascinated during their stretch run on their quest for an NBA record win total, which they set on the campaign's closing note.
There's a different suspense to the final weeks of this season. The Dubs face a litany of basketball questions last year's more established group had already answered—none bigger than the hobbled 7-foot elephant in the room.
Kevin Durant injury watch is the Bay Area's new pastime. It lacks all the magic of the chase for 73, but its significance extends beyond regular-season success. His MCL sprain and bone bruise put the former MVP in a fight against time, one that can neither be rushed nor delayed.
The progress of his recovery isn't just the biggest storyline for the Warriors; it's the league's most important development the rest of the way. We have dissected that issue here, plus examined Golden State's next four most significant narratives to track ahead of the postseason.
5. McCaw, Clark or Both?
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Last summer's roster sacrifices made in pursuit of Durant left their largest dent at backup shooting guard. Instead of steady veterans Leandro Barbosa and Brandon Rush, the Warriors have had to rely on an undrafted walk-on (Ian Clark) or a second-round rookie (Patrick McCaw).
Both have auditioned for rotation roles throughout the season—sometimes rising up the ranks, at others falling out of them entirely. With more than four months of data produced, there still isn't a clear leader in this role.
"It's depending what we need," head coach Steve Kerr said, per CSN Bay Area's Monte Poole. "I wouldn't say either one is ahead of the other."
Glass-full optimists can paint this as a great thing. From that rationale, the Dubs have a backup 2 guard for any situation. Need shooting? Clark has cashed half of his field goals and 41.4 percent of his triples. McCaw offers superior length, athleticism and playmaking, all in a package rich with defensive potential.
But the glass-empty crowd sees an inability of the pair to separate from one another. Through that lens, Clark is an undersized scoring guard who brings little else to the table. McCaw lacks the physical maturity to handle powerful defensive matchups, and his offense suffers from both inconsistent shooting and passivity.
The sixth wing may not feel like the most important role, but Barbosa, Clark and Rush logged a combined 518 minutes in last year's playoffs—four more than rotation regular Shaun Livingston. The Dubs will need contributions from this spot. It would help if this final month showed where they can comfortably turn to get them.
4. Draymond's DPOY Chase
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Draymond Green has nothing but silver medals to show for the last two Defensive Player of the Year Awards. This could be the season when the hyper-versatile 6'7" "big" man secures some actual hardware.
He leads the league with 2.1 steals per game and sits 14th in blocks at 1.5. It's been over a decade since anyone produced that line. Green also holds the second spots in defensive win shares (4.7) and defensive real plus-minus (5.01, per ESPN.com) and the fourth in opponent field-goal percentage at the rim (43.7 percent). He defends all five positions and holds his matchup 5.7 percentage points below his average.
"I feel pretty good about what I've done defensively," Green told ESPN.com's Chris Haynes. "I think there's some things I can get better at and continue to improve. But overall, I feel like I've been pretty good individually, and I think we've been good as a team."
Green isn't alone in that regard. Kawhi Leonard and Rudy Gobert have had phenomenal individual seasons on elite defensive units as well. The San Antonio Spurs, Warriors and Utah Jazz are the league's three best defenses (in that order), and these three players have more to do with that than anyone.
There are arguments for all three, but this could be Green's to lose. Leonard has to fight against voter fatigue with the last two awards already in his collection. Gobert doesn't have Green's spotlight or All-Star accolades. Still, the race is too close to call as it bears down on the final stretch.
3. Race for No. 1
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The race is on for the Western Conference's top seed—just don't expect a frenzied sprint to the finish line.
This is the final leg of the marathon for the Warriors and Spurs. Both are conscious of the ground already covered and cautious not to overextend themselves before the second season starts. There's a bigger priority on rest than team record, even if that means losing a winnable game or making a marquee matchup unwatchable.
"We still want the No. 1 seed," Kerr told ESPN.com's J.A. Adande. "I'm not going to run guys too ragged to get it. Obviously, we want it, it would be nice to get. But you have to get through the season in one piece."
Home-court advantage has tremendous value. Game 7 hosts have won about 80 percent of their matchups, according to Adande. The odds could be even more against the Warriors, since they almost never win at the AT&T Center.
They currently have a 2.5-game lead on the Spurs. But with another trip to San Antonio looming—one night after playing in Houston—plus a handful of teams coming to the Oracle Arena, maintaining first place won't be easy.
The Warriors will fight for it, just not in a reckless manner. But since Kerr branches out of Spurs skipper Gregg Popovich's coaching tree, the Spurs will do the same.
In other words, don't look for either team to set any land-speed records here. Even if there's a photo finish up ahead, both squads will jog to get there.
2. More MVP Behavior
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There was never going to be an easy way for Stephen Curry to follow his last two seasons. Last year, he became the first unanimous MVP selection and only the fourth player to defend the MVP crown in the past two decades.
He set the bar impossibly high and never had the opportunity to climb up there with the offensive volume he yielded to Durant. All of that placed Curry under an extreme version of today's judgment-rushing microscope, where a cold spell draws the "overrated" label and a shot from the logo makes people wonder if he's back.
Curry never went anywhere. He's had to share more of the offensive spotlight, and he's still one of only four players averaging at least 25 points, six assists and four rebounds.
But he has rarely resembled the cosmic force who kicked the three-point revolution into high gear. Losing ground in counting categories was expected. Declining in efficiency—he's never shot worse from three (40.0 percent) and only once posted a lower field-goal percentage (46.2)—was not.
He's had dominant efforts and duds—sometimes in the same week—making it tricky to tell where he's at and how long he'll stay there.
"His recent rash of missed three-pointers was truly mystifying," ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss wrote. "Is he rolling again? That's too early to say. At the very least, he flaunted an ability to perform like an MVP. The big question for Golden State, beyond when Kevin Durant's returning, is whether Steph's MVP form becomes a habit or occasional surprise."
For everything the Warriors accomplished before Durant's injury, there's still another, unstoppable level they never reached where both MVPs put their superpowers on display regularly.
1. KD's Return
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The Warriors could win the title without Durant at 100 percent. That's how absurdly loaded this roster is.
But if the 28-year-old returns in time to recapture his peak powers, they become prohibitive, take-them-over-the-field favorites in the championship hunt. That's how absurdly skilled the future Hall of Famer is.
"How many different positions can [Durant] play?" Jerry West said, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein. "Most people looked at him like he's [only] a scoring machine, but what about the passing? The rebounding? The shot-blocking? Players like that just don't come along very often."
Pre-injury Durant was the best version the basketball world has seen. He posted personal bests in field-goal percentage (53.7), true shooting percentage (65.1) and blocks (1.6). He was an elite perimeter scorer and effective paint protector, knocking 5.0 percentage points off his opponent's shooting rates. Golden State's net rating drops 8.8 points per 100 possessions without him.
Is that the player the Warriors will get back? And if so, when? There are no more important questions in this NBA season.
He remains without a timeline, though the fact he's traveling with the team seems encouraging. If he winds up missing a month, that only gives him two weeks to find his footing before the postseason tips.
But patience is key here. Golden State cannot rush this return and have him suffer a setback. If that means extending his recovery into the playoffs, that's doable. With or without him, the Dubs won't be tested before the second round at the earliest.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics accurate through Monday, March 20, and used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
