San Francisco Giants: MLB Player Comps for Each Top Spring Training Prospect
The San Francisco Giants may not have any elite prospects, but they do have some good ones.
Some even look like major leaguers, in fact. And we can prove it.
We're going to compare the six best prospects in camp with the Giants this spring with their major league doppelganger. This will require weighing things like body type, production and general playing ability.
Please note that we'll only be discussing prospects in the Giants' major league camp, either as members of the club's 40-man roster or as non-roster invitees. Prospects in minor league camp, such as Bryan Reynolds and Chris Shaw, don't count—better luck next year, fellas.
Joan Gregorio: Michael Ynoa
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Joan Gregorio is a tall, long-limbed right-hander with stuff, but one who's had trouble getting on track and may now be facing a future as a reliever.
So, he's basically Michael Ynoa.
Ynoa was a hotshot prospect whom the Oakland A's signed for $4.25 million in 2008. His road to the major leagues was then delayed by injuries and up-and-down results first as a starter and as a reliever. Minus the hotshot prospect part, Gregorio's pro career has proceeded similarly.
More to the point, Ynoa is one of few pitchers in recent memory who compares physically to Gregorio, who's listed at a giant 6'7" but a slender 180 pounds. And Gregorio's stuff is reminiscent of Ynoa's.
Gregorio's heat sits in the low-to-mid 90s and plays up thanks to his extension. He also has a slider that Baseball Prospectus says "flashes plus," and a changeup that Baseball America claims "took a big step forward" last season.
The big challenge for Gregorio on the mound is the same one Ynoa faced: repeating his delivery and throwing strikes. It's not so easy when you're so tall with such long limbs.
Because he's already 25, the clock is ticking for Gregorio to find a role he's suited for. At this point, he's most likely to end up in the majors the same way Ynoa did with the Chicago White Sox in 2016—as a wild but nasty fastball-slider relief pitcher.
Not very exciting, to be sure, but useful.
Steven Duggar: Tyler Naquin
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The sixth-round pick the Giants used on Steven Duggar in 2015 is already starting to look like a steal.
The Clemson product broke out last season, moving from right field to center field and hitting .302 with 10 homers and 14 steals. This was him putting his quality tools to work.
If nothing else, the 6'2", 195-pound Duggar is exactly the same size as Cleveland Indians outfielder Tyler Naquin. However, the comparisons go deeper than that.
Duggar resembles Naquin at the plate, showing good discipline with a left-handed swing built to hit hard line drives to all fields. He also has a similar profile on defense, where he covers ground with good speed and can make throws with his strong right arm.
The questions about Duggar have to do with how his skills will be tested as he gets closer to the majors.
The book on him at Baseball Prospectus, for example, questions if his raw strength will translate to in-game power and whether that could nix his on-base talent. He also doesn't apply his speed as well on the bases as he does in defense, and he may not have an "innate nose for the ball" in center.
Naquin's power has turned out fine, but he can be looked at as a similarly flawed basket of tools. For instance, his patience invited strikeouts, and he was a terrible fielder despite his speed and arm strength.
Still, flaws didn't stop Naquin from contending for the Rookie of the Year in 2016. Maybe a similar breakthrough is in Duggar's future.
Ty Blach: Joe Saunders
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Ty Blach made a name for himself when he outdueled Clayton Kershaw at AT&T Park last September. But don't let that fool you into thinking he's the Kershaw type.
He's more the Joe Saunders type.
Since Saunders last pitched in the majors in 2014, you might need a refresher on what he was like. Although he was a decent-sized lefty at 6'3" and 215 pounds, he only worked around 90 mph with his fastball. He was more about using his plus command and his array of secondaries, most notably his above-average changeup, to keep hitters off-balance.
That's how Blach is going to work.
The 26-year-old is solidly built at 6'2" and 200 pounds, but he only recently pushed his fastball velocity north of 90 mph. As the Baseball America book on him outlines, Blach is more a case of the difference between a pitcher and a thrower:
"He has long been a favorite of Giants coaches for his intelligent approach to pitching and his excellent work ethic. He lacks a plus pitch, but his changeup is above-average and his control allows him to keep hitters off balance.
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In short, he's what they call a "crafty left-hander."
That could make it fair game to compare Blach to some of the best crafty lefties from years past. But rather than invoke names like Tom Glavine, Mark Buehrle or Mark Mulder, let's let him be like Saunders first and revisit the discussion as needed.
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Andrew Suarez: C.J. Wilson
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Picture Ty Blach with better stuff, and you've got Andrew Suarez. Picture Suarez, and you've basically got C.J. Wilson.
Like Blach, Suarez owns a minor league walk rate of under two batters per nine innings. But where Blach has whiffed only 6.2 batters per nine innings, Suarez has whiffed a solid 7.9.
The difference is in the stuff. Suarez sits in the low 90s and can climb into the mid 90s with his fastball velocity, with different movements to boot. He also throws a slider, changeup and curveball. There may not be a plus pitch in the bunch, but they play up thanks to their movement and his command of it.
Due to the strong presence of the word "command," Wilson isn't a perfect comp for Suarez. The former Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels lefty retired with a career 3.8 BB/9, reflecting his on-again-off-again struggle to control the ball.
But on a good night, Wilson would be in complete control of an arsenal of stuff similar to what Suarez is working with. He would work in the low-to-mid 90s with velocity, and hitters would have to be on the lookout for a four-seamer, sinker, cutter, curveball, changeup or slider.
Just as Wilson wasn't perfect, Suarez won't be either. While he's mostly in control, Baseball Prospectus offers this caveat: "There’s some 'funky lefty' in the delivery that tends to make him a little wild in the zone."
Christian Arroyo: Matt Duffy
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Any Giants fans who are missing Matt Duffy can take comfort in knowing that a similar player is on his way.
Christian Arroyo is different from Duffy in one respect: he doesn't look like he's built out of twigs. Even Duffy's listed size of 6'2" and 170 pounds seems generous. Arroyo is a solid 6'1" and 180 pounds.
Where they begin to look similar is at the plate.
Arroyo has been productive hitting for average, compiling a .294 mark in four seasons since being taken in the first round of the 2013 draft. He has a short yet strong swing that produces hard line drives from foul line to foul line. It's not unlike the stroke that Duffy showed off in his breakout 2015 season.
The red flags in Arroyo's offensive profile are his lack of discipline and questionable power. The first one is likely permanent, which would doom him to a life as a high-AVG, low-OBP hitter as Duffy has been.
Like there was in Duffy's, however, there might be some untapped power in Arroyo's bat. His bat speed can generate some solid oomph. The key to making that oomph show up more often will be getting under more balls. To wit, over half his batted balls in 2016 were on the ground.
Another thing Arroyo has in common with Duffy is that he's a natural shortstop who has found himself in defensive no man's land. But the answer looks to be third base. It's a good place to hide his iffy range and to make the most of his hand and arm strength.
Tyler Beede: Ryan Vogelsong
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Tyler Beede was asked after the Giants drafted him in the first round in 2014 to compare himself to some major league pitchers. He picked out three names: Michael Wacha for stuff, and Matt Cain and Ryan Vogelsong for demeanor.
Three years later, it's the Vogelsong comp that rings true the most—and not just for demeanor.
After struggling in 2015, Beede got back on track with a 2.81 ERA in 24 starts for Double-A Richmond in 2016. The big key was his fastball velocity returning to the low-to-mid 90s on average and upwards of 95 at the max.
The 23-year-old's heat comes with different looks, to boot. He throws a sinker and cutter in addition to his four-seamer. For off-speed, he has a curveball and a changeup.
If this five-pitch mix sounds familiar, that's because it's exactly the same as Vogelsong's. And when he broke out as an All-Star in 2011, the 39-year-old was also sitting in the low 90s and occasionally climbing above 95.
Of course, Vogelsong was rarely a dominant pitcher despite his kitchen-sink repertoire. That's likely Beede's future as well. His 3.3 BB/9 in the minors is testament to command that's short of plus. His 7.5 K/9 is testament to a pedestrian ability to overpower hitters.
But where Vogelsong was able to use his sheer pitching smarts to overcome similar shortcomings, Beede should too. Command and stuff are great, but trickery can be just as good.
Data courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball and MLBFarm.com.
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