How New GM John Lynch Can Get the 49ers Back on Track in 2017 Free Agency

Just call new San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch Hercules.

At least the 45-year-old appears to like his tasks Herculean. For his first-ever front-office gig. Lynch has taken the helm of a 49ers team that might well be the most talent-deficient squad in the NFL.

Make no mistake. The 49ers are bad. Really bad. Really, really bad.

Lynch admitted to Albert Breer of The MMQB that there's much to be done to get the 49ers back in playoff contention, but he's eager to get after it.

"A priest once said to me, 'Think about eating a huge steak, you can't eat it all in one bite. You gotta take one bite at a time.' And that's the way we’re going through it," he said. "You can get overwhelmed in this job, particularly coming in late. 'I got all this to do, how do I do it?' Instead, we're just going about our business each day and taking things as they come. It does feel very natural."

Step 1 in the rebuild starts as February turns to March, with a trip to Indianapolis, Indiana, for the NFL Scouting Combine and the beginning of free agency.

In that latter regard the 49ers are in a good position to be aggressive. Per Spotrac, there's no team in the NFC with more cap space than the Niners—over $80 million to be exact.

Here's a look at the areas Lynch needs to address with all that coin if his first foray into free agency is going to be a successful one.

(In-)House Cleaning

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The biggest decision the 49ers face regarding their own free agents concerns a player who isn't technically even a free agent...

Yet.

It's also not their decision. Beginning on March 2, quarterback Colin Kaepernick will have a week to decide whether to opt out of his contract and become an unrestricted free agent. As Darin Gantt wrote for Pro Football Talk, multiple sources, including Adam Schefter of ESPN and Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News, reported that Kaepernick will do just that.

That move would put the 49ers in the unenviable position of having all of zero quarterbacks on the roster when the new league year begins. It could also open the door for veteran Blaine Gabbert to re-up with the team.

Stop making that face.

I'm not going to sit here and say that the 49ers want to roll Gabbert out in Week 1 the same way they did in 2016. I saw the 27-year-old play last year too.

However, Gabbert is a six-year veteran with 40 career starts who is well-regarded enough in the locker room to have been named a captain last year. The 49ers don't just need starters and difference-makers. They need mentors and warm bodies too.

It's a similar situation with wide receiver Jeremy Kerley. Acquired in a trade just before last season, Kerley caught a career-best 64 passes for the 49ers in 2016. As Jennifer Lee Chan of SB Nation reported, Kerley made it clear that he'd be very interested in remaining in San Francisco under the new regime in conversation with Andrew Siciliano of NFL Network.

"I see a lot of upside to being over there," Kerley said. "Like I said, it’s a great place, they got a lot of great talent. A lot of people don’t understand that we were in a lot of those games. Two-14 was a tough record, but we were in a lot of those games so I think it will be great to go back and be around a lot of those guys that want to win. I think with a new atmosphere it will be good."

Is Kerley a No. 1 receiver? Heavens no. He probably isn't a No. 2 either. But the 28-year-old is a sure-handed veteran who runs the right routes and can even pitch in on special teams.

It's the same with backup running back Shaun Draughn. Inside linebackers Michael Wilhoite and Gerald Hodges. Even ancient kicker Phil Dawson.

Of the 16 unrestricted free agents the 49ers have, there isn't one player the team absolutely needs to retain. But there are quite a few who are worth re-signing—if the price is right.

The Elephant Under Center

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Lynch's tenure as general manager of the 49ers may well be defined by one of the first decisions he's going to face. A decision that could ripple across the entire franchise for years to come.

What to do about the gaping hole on the roster at quarterback.

Assuming Kaepernick opts out, there are a number of avenues Lynch can pursue.

There's the much-discussed reunion of new 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan and Washington Redskins signal-caller Kirk Cousins. Rumors have been circulating hot and heavy in that regard, with Daniel Jeremiah of the NFL Network speculating (via J.P. Finlay of CSN Mid-Atlantic) that a deal could get done as soon as the combine.

"I would not be shocked at all if we saw a Kirk Cousins to San Francisco trade go down at that point in time," Jeremiah said, speaking to San Diego's Mighty 1090 radio.

ESPN's John Clayton also told KNBR Radio that he expects Lynch to at least kick the tires on a trade for Jimmy Garropolo of the New England Patriots, a contract-year passer who shined in limited duty last season.

“I think they will be involved in Jimmy Garoppolo, but I think there’s going to be a really good battle on that one,” Clayton said. “Because I think when you look at the Garoppolo trade, it’s going to be very similar to the Alex Smith trade of a couple years ago.”

If the Niners can make that deal for what they received for Smith (two second-rounders) then it's absolutely worth pursuing. But numerous reports, including from Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, have stated the Pats want at least a first-round pick or aren't interested in dealing Garoppolo at all.

And that's the rub with these potential acquisitions. In addition to signing that shiny new quarterback to a deal in excess of $100 million, the 49ers would be giving up significant draft capital—capital that's sorely needed by the Niners right now.

Let's be honest. This team isn't a quarterback away from competing for a playoff spot. And while Cousins enjoyed some success in D.C. and Garoppolo showed flashes of potential last year, neither quarterback impresses as being worth mortgaging a team's future.

Between contract and compensation, that's exactly what Lynch would be doing.

As Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area reported, Shanahan said on KNBR's Murph and Mac Show the 49ers will be patient under center.

“You’re not trying to commit everything to one year,” Shanahan said. "Yes, you want to win right away. That’s the goal of everybody. But you don’t want to do that at the expense of hurting your future. You don’t want to gamble. You want to be aggressive in everything, but you got to do what’s right. You have to build your team the right way and that’s what I mean by being patient.”

That may be why Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee opined recently that he expected the team to add a potential "bridge" starter like Brian Hoyer or Matt Schaub, while looking to the draft for their starter of the future.

In this writer's opinion, that's the way to go. This isn't to say that there's a sure-fire franchise quarterback in the 2017 draft. More that I'm just not confident that Cousins or Garoppolo are good enough to surrender a first-round pick and upwards of $20 million a season to get them.

Whether it's by making the big splash or taking the slow-and-steady route, the decision Lynch and the 49ers make at quarterback will set the tone for everything else they do this spring.

Choose wisely.

Go Deep at Wide Receiver

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There are a few areas in which Lynch would be well-served to get aggressive, to use all that cap space the 49ers have amassed to their advantage.

One is making sure that whoever the quarterback is for San Francisco in 2017 has better targets at their disposal than Jeremy Kerley.

To be blunt, San Francisco's receiving corps is a hot mess. But they have the resources at their disposal to change that.

The crown jewel of this year's free-agent crop at wideout is Chicago's Alshon Jeffery, a prototypical No. 1 receiver with two 1,000-yard seasons on his NFL resume who just turned 27.

By no means is it assured the Bears will let Jeffery hit the open market. But if they do, Vinnie Iyer of The Sporting News believes the Bay Area could be a good fit.

"Can new coach Kyle Shanahan and new general manager John Lynch convince Jeffery to come out West with an uncertain QB situation," Iyer asked? "That's the trick, but there's no doubt Shanahan, after working with Julio Jones and the Falcons, knows it's critical to have an attention-demanding target to set up complementary, versatile receivers in his diverse passing offense."

Jeffery isn't Jones (who is?), and both durability and a PED suspension last year add risk to throwing big money his way. But if Lynch wants to be aggressive in free agency there isn't a wide receiver hitting the open market who can sniff Jeffery's upside.

Terrelle Pryor might were he getting anywhere near free agency, but the Browns have even more resources than the Niners to make sure that doesn't happen. Kenny Britt of the Los Angeles Rams and Kenny Stills of the Miami Dolphins are both coming off career years, but it was one year.

The last thing Lynch needs from his first big signing is a player who never repeats the numbers that got him paid.

The 49ers could also go the veteran route with the addition of DeSean Jackson or Pierre Garcon of the Redskins. But those signings only make sense if Lynch adds a "now" quarterback like Cousins or Garoppolo. Otherwise by the time you have a signal-caller groomed his top target will be in decline and San Fran will be right back where they started.

Free agency usually isn't about the individual so much as it is the position and the value—an attempt to fill a need in the former with the best of the latter.

There's an exception to every rule, though. If Lynch has ambitions of significantly upgrading the receiving corps in free agency there's really only one path to take—roll the dice and go get Alshon Jeffery, preferably with a deal that's structured to provide an "out" after two or three years.

You can't take the cap space with you, and the potential payoff is well worth the risk.

Defensive Overhaul, Part 1 (Ingram Style)

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There's one other young free agent besides Jeffery who appears such an excellent fit in San Francisco that Lynch shouldn't think twice about doling out $10+ million a season to secure his services.

That player is Los Angeles Chargers edge-rusher Melvin Ingram.

As Chris Biderman wrote for USA Today, Shanahan and Lynch confirmed on KNBR that the 49ers intend to move toward replicating the scheme of their NFC West rivals in Seattle under new defensive coordinator Robert Saleh.

"Playing against Seattle over the years, and knowing how hard that system is to go against," Shanahan said, "And it's not necessarily how hard it is, it's how sound it is. They make you earn everything. It's always an eight-man front. It's very tough to run the ball against. And they're very sound in their coverages. You can get some completions and things like that, but they make you work all the way down the field."

Now, even if you believe (as Lynch reportedly does) that young defensive ends Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner will thrive in the new one-gap scheme, there's still one key piece missing.

A true "Leo"—the weak-side pass-rusher who is as much an outside linebacker as a defensive end. It's a role usually filled by an undersized (by 4-3 DE standards) player who relies more on quickness than power to get after the quarterback.

As Biderman's colleague Rob Lowder pointed out, it's a role that would fit Ingram's skill set to a tee.

"He had eight sacks in 2016 and a career-high 10.5 in 2015," Lowder said. No 49ers have finished with more than 6.5 sacks since 2013. Ingram also excels in stopping the run and in pass coverage. An effective edge-rusher is among the most important positions on the field. Ingram, 27, could be a bedrock in the front seven for seasons to come—if the price is right."

That price isn't going to be cheap by any stretch of the imagination. Edge-rushers in their prime command top dollar, and Ingram is the best of this year's bunch this side of Jason Pierre-Paul.

But the "Leo" spot is a key to Seattle's "Under" front, and Ingram also offers the versatility to line up as a SAM (strong side) linebacker.

That's a nice bonus, because....

Defensive Overhaul, Part 2 (Calling All Linebackers)

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Sweet Mother of God the San Francisco 49ers need linebacker help.

It wasn't that long ago that the 49ers had one of the NFL's best defenses. The heart of that defense was the fearsome inside linebacker tandem of Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman.

Then Willis retired. His perceived replacement (Chris Borland) stunningly followed suit after just one NFL season. And after leading the NFL in tackles in 2015, Bowman lasted four games last year before rupturing his Achilles—his second devastating lower leg injury since January 2014.

The 49ers allowed more yardage on the ground per game last year than in any season in franchise history. Between that staggeringly awful stat, the schematic shakeup and the fact Bowman can't be counted on to be ready for training camp...

Did I mention the 49ers need linebacker help?

Unfortunately, there aren't any "go get that guy" free agents for the 49ers to pursue here. Zach Brown of the Buffalo Bills led the AFC in tackles last year and would be (in theory) a good fit on the weak side. But Brown's career 2016 season was the first time in five years that he has topped 100 stops.

Lawrence Timmons of the Pittsburgh Steelers has hit that benchmark in six of the past seven seasons. But it's unlikely that a 30-year-old veteran who has spent his entire career in the 3-4 defense of a perennial contender will be open to switching schemes and playing out his career with an also-ran.

That's probably why draft buzz around the 49ers has them focusing early on the linebacker spot. In his latest mock draft at Pro Football Focus, Steve Palazzolo went so far as to slot Alabama's Reuben Foster (this year's top ILB prospect) to San Fran at No. 2 overall.

If Lynch makes personnel additions at linebacker in free agency, it will more likely than not have to be either an aging veteran like D'Qwell Jackson, formerly of the Indianapolis Colts, or a replacement-level talent like Keenan Robinson of the New York Giants.

With Michael Wilhoite, Gerald Hodges and Nick Bellore all hitting free agency, San Francisco's depth at the position could be ravaged just like at quarterback. The team is going to need bodies.

There is, however, one exception. A veteran player with a puncher's chance at hitting the open market who appears a solid fit on paper.

This isn't to say that Oakland's Malcolm Smith is a world-beater. Among 59 qualifying inside linebackers last year at Pro Football Focus, Smith graded out 50th. There's a reason the general consensus is the Raiders will let the 27-year-old test free agency.

But that grade, as bad as it may look at first glance, is actually better than either Timmons or Jackson received in 2016. Smith also has several years of experience playing in the 4-3 "Under" employed by the Seahawks...including Super Bowl XLVIII MVP honors back in 2014.

Just as under center, the "patient" approach may be best. Find a reasonably priced veteran who can tide the team over until the Niners can develop some younger talents to take their place.

Bargain-Bin Options

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It's fun for fans to imagine their favorite team checking off every box on their offseason wish list in a splurge of splashy spending.

That's rarely how things work out, though—unless you're the New York Giants in 2016. Usually teams find themselves looking through the second and third-tier free agents after missing out on a primary target or two.

Even if the 49ers were somehow able to fill every need I've listed here with the high-end replacements I mentioned, the Niners will still be combing through the bargain bin. There are just too many holes on the roster to fill them all with front-end free agents.

Here's a handful of reasonably-priced options Lynch might want to consider.

Robert Woods, WR, Buffalo Bills

In four NFL seasons Woods has yet to hit even 700 receiving yards. However, the quarterback situation in Buffalo hasn't exactly been ideal, and Woods is still only 24 years old. Frankly, his youth and potential may be enough to trigger demand for his services that will bump his salary well outside what one would expect given his modest production.

Austin Pasztor, OT/G, Cleveland Browns

One of San Fran's myriad issues in 2016 was a line that ranked 26th in pass protection and 31st in run blocking, according to Pro Football Focus. Pasztor isn't going to instantly fix that, but in 15 starts at right tackle for the Browns last year the 26-year-old wasn't terrible. Add in that he can play guard, and Pasztor could be a sneaky good addition.

Josh Bynes, LB, Detroit Lions

No one is going to confuse Bynes with Lavonte David any time soon. But Bynes is in the prime of his career, the 27-year-old has started 19 games for the Lions the past two seasons, and he quietly ranked among the top 15 4-3 outside linebackers in the NFL, per PFF, in about 375 snaps for Detroit in 2016. As depth or a stopgap starter, the 49ers could do worse.

Alex Okafor, DE/OLB, Arizona Cardinals

Okafor tallied eight sacks for the Cardinals in his second NFL season, but hasn't sniffed that kind of success since. The 26-year-old isn't going to solve San Francisco's issues in the pass rush, but he's young and has demonstrated at least some aptitude at collapsing the pocket. Better a youngster like this than an aging retread playing out the string.

Valentino Blake, CB, Tennessee Titans

A five-year veteran, Blake's already on the third team (and second first name) of his NFL career, and the 26-year-old ranked a so-so 72nd among NFL corners last season at Pro Football Focus. Still, while corner isn't a position of dire need on a 49ers team filled with them, NFL squads are always on the lookout for cheap depth in the secondary.