Predicting the 2018 NBA All-Star Teams
The 2017 All-Star Game is Sunday, and the rosters for each team have been set for weeks.
But what makes the NBA so thrilling is how quickly hierarchies can shift—superstars stumble from their perch, replaced by hungry youngsters who want and deserve more spotlight. It's a never-ending cycle that's never more noticeable than at All-Star Weekend.
Not all change happens overnight, but here's a look at what each All-Star team may look like in 2018. With so many prospects seemingly prepared to leap forward into a more relevant role as early as next season, it's never too early to predict which players are most ready to step into superstardom.
Eastern Conference Backcourt Starter: John Wall
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As jaw-droppingly phenomenal as John Wall has been in 2016-17, averaging career highs in points, assists, steals, true shooting percentage and player efficiency rating, he'll still be just 27 years old next season.
Wall is young enough to continue sharpening tools in his repertoire and become an even more dangerous all-around player. He's already able to attack the basket whenever he feels like it, but improving his three-point shot—long a sore spot in his game—will go a long way toward upping not only his own point total, but also creating space for teammates when he doesn't have the ball.
If Wall can make defenders fear his pull-up jumper (and that's a pretty big if), there won't be a better all-around point guard in the NBA.
Eastern Conference Backcourt Starter: Isaiah Thomas
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Because doubting Isaiah Thomas is officially something people should stop doing, let's put him in the starting lineup of next year's game.
Coming off a season in which he may win the scoring title, the 5'9" two-time All-Star has cemented himself as one of the NBA's most dynamic offensive weapons. Up next is "Contract Year Isaiah Thomas," a horrifying thought for defensive coaches who are already flummoxed by his aggressive drives and the fireworks display he induces behind the three-point line.
He's averaging 33.7 points over his last 15 games—which leads the league—on nearly 50/40/90 shooting splits. This should boggle your brain.
Thomas' per-game numbers may quiet down if Boston acquires another All-Star-caliber talent this offseason, but his efficiency—which already sparkles—will only swell. And there are still areas for Thomas to grow. He's primarily a read-and-react, pick-and-roll scorer, but given all the attention he hoards from opposing defenses, the opportunity to become a double-digit assist playmaker is very real, especially as the youngsters in his supporting cast continue to evolve.
Eastern Conference Frontcourt Starter: LeBron James
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And now it's time for the most obvious pick on this list.
Barring unforeseeable tragic events, it's impossible to hold an All-Star Game without the best player in the world. Even if LeBron James decides to coast through the regular season and sit for one out of every four or five games, it won't matter.
James will be 33 years old, the same age Michael Jordan was when the Chicago Bulls went 69-13 and rolled through to a second straight championship. There's precedent for him to remain on top of the world, and until he does, there's no reason to predict when he will.
Eastern Conference Frontcourt Starter: Giannis Antetokounmpo
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The 2016-17 season continues to be Giannis Antetokounmpo's coming-out party. He was voted an All-Star starter, has strung together a highlight reel for the ages and has generally looked like nothing we've ever seen before.
Now imagine the wondrous possibilities that await NBA fans in 2017-18. Giannis now finds himself at the ripe age of 23, and all of a sudden, he possesses a three-point percentage that's at or near league average (it sits at 28.9 percent) and he's flirting with triple-doubles every single night.
Antetokounmpo has also elbowed his way into the Defensive Player of the Year discussion. He's Milwaukee's best rim protector and begs to guard the other team's top threat in every single fourth quarter. All of a sudden, his breakout year looks like a forgettable stepping stone. Somehow, Antetokounmpo's future looks even brighter than before.
Eastern Conference Frontcourt Starter: Joel Embiid
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All-Star Weekend exists so players like Joel Embiid can leap from a rising cult sensation to an erupting rock star.
If he can stay healthy, Embiid will almost definitely be the best center in the Eastern Conference next season. He's already one of the league's top rim protectors and a valuable part of Philadelphia's rebuild—which didn't gain any traction until he started wrecking people.
Embiid's per-36 minute numbers may become per-game stats as early as next year (28.7 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 3.5 blocks and 4.5 three-point attempts). He'll demand a double-team every time his back is to the basket and will have even better scoring opportunities playing alongside Ben Simmons and whichever guard the Sixers select in this year's draft.
And, of note, he'll only be 23 years old.
Eastern Conference Backcourt Reserve: Bradley Beal
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Bradley Beal didn't make his first All-Star team this year, but he's on track to contend for an All-NBA slot by season's end, averaging an efficient 22 points while lowering his turnover rate despite increased usage.
A spark on a surging Wizards team, the soon-to-be 24-year-old is armed with a velvety outside shot and a reliable stock of in-between moves that he unfurls like a slider. Defending him in space was nearly impossible even before his game began to trend toward the free-throw and three-point lines, an optimistic revelation that should only increase his efficiency.
If he can stay healthy and continue to harness the sneaky athleticism and tight handle that propel him wherever he wants to go, Beal will be one of the three best shooting guards in the league next season (if he isn't already).
Eastern Conference Backcourt Reserve: Kyrie Irving
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Kyrie Irving should be able to stamp his ticket to All-Star Weekend every year he's LeBron's teammate. Point guard is a deep, superstar-laden position, but nobody's weaknesses are hidden as smoothly as Irving's in Cleveland.
There's no pressure to set up teammates or execute a defensive game plan. All Irving has to worry about is scoring, which is exactly what he was put on Earth to do. He's operating in an offense that's nearly five possessions per 48 minutes faster than last year when he's on the floor, and the result is even more opportunities for Irving to do damage in the open floor.
Among players who've logged at least 100 plays in isolation, the only two who are more efficient than Irving are Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Morris. Being that he'll still be just 25 years old next year, the game's most exciting ball-handler figures to keep getting better. And if/when James starts to decline, Irving's opportunity to stuff the stat sheet will only increase.
Eastern Conference Frontcourt Reserve: Jimmy Butler
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It doesn't matter what team Jimmy Butler plays for next year. Whether it's the Chicago Bulls or not, the 27-year-old has proven his value as an All-Star-caliber forward.
Butler has already smashed through the shackles Chicago's anti-three-ball philosophy have strapped on his wrists. As a result, he is in the middle of a career year one season after he showed almost no statistical growth.
Butler is one of the 15 best offensive players in the league and a top-10 talent when you factor in his versatility on the other end. He ranks third overall in ESPN's real plus-minus—behind only Chris Paul and Draymond Green. He ranks seventh in steals, and only three players in the entire league have attempted more free throws.
It's scary to think about how effective Butler would be in a modern NBA offense, surrounded by shooters in his backcourt and frontcourt. But even if the Chicago Bulls don't trade him, we already know what Butler can do in an antiquated system.
Eastern Conference Frontcourt Reserve: Paul George
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After a slow start, both individually and from his team's perspective, Paul George is back to looking like a consistent superstar.
The Indiana Pacers have done their franchise player no favors by surrounding him with poor shooters and pigeonholing him at small forward—though that might be some of his own doing. But he's made the best of an awkward situation by splashing opponents with some unguardable offense and handcuffing himself to their top perimeter weapon.
The Pacers could go through a facelift this summer, with the opportunity to open up max cap space and add players who complement George's game. Myles Turner's development into one of the league's top pick-and-pop big men should help, too. He's still in his prime, and few at his position are better. That shouldn't change anytime soon.
Eastern Conference Frontcourt Reserve: Kristaps Porzingis
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In his third season, Kristaps Porzingis may finally be New York's leading man. Derrick Rose, who's an unrestricted free agent, and Carmelo Anthony, who's been cast as a selfish malcontent, may be in different cities.
Porzingis has repeatedly said that those two draw a ton of defensive attention and make life easier for him, but there's still no reason for his usage percentage to plateau or his free-throw rate to decline as it has. The 21-year-old has paradigm-shifting gifts that can't be maximized until he's a first option, surrounded by shooters, fluid two-way wings and a point guard who doesn't have tunnel vision.
There's a good chance he'll flourish as the true face of that franchise next year. And with that should come the first All-Star appearance of many.
Eastern Conference Wild Card: Kyle Lowry
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Kyle Lowry is either the first- or second-best point guard in the Eastern Conference today and should be a starter in this year's All-Star Game. But he isn't a lock to maintain this level of play in 2017-18.
He'll be 31 years old next year and is averaging a league-leading 37.6 minutes per game.
Decline is as expected as it is understandable. But Lowry is also freaking incredible and, assuming he re-signs with the Raptors this summer, the driving engine of a pseudo-contender's elite offense.
Lowry can't be overlooked. He's shooting a career-high 41.9 percent from beyond the arc, and the Raptors are 14 points per 100 possessions better when he's on the floor than when he's off—a figure nearly twice as high as last season.
If Lowry doesn't make it, look for Kemba Walker, teammate DeMar DeRozan or even someone like Marcus Smart or Dennis Schroder to swoop in and take their game to the next level.
Eastern Conference Wild Card: Aaron Gordon
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The biggest surprise by far on this entire list, Aaron Gordon has never sustained any stretch of play that would indicate he's a budding All-Star. But that doesn't mean he can't.
Gordon's athleticism knows no bounds. He's already defending five positions at a high level and is one of the better finishers in the league. Instead of playing him as a small-ball 4, the Orlando Magic continue to plug him in as a large small forward beside two traditional bigs (Serge Ibaka, Bismack Biyombo, Nikola Vucevic, etc.) and guards who can't shoot.
But next season, Gordon's fourth in the NBA, that same team may finally understand how dangerous short-term fixes can be. Assuming he becomes Orlando's full-time starting power forward, Gordon will be able to display his gifts on a nightly basis, and one beneficial side effect will be Orlando's winning percentage.
Western Conference Backcourt Starter: James Harden
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The front-runner for MVP, James Harden is racking up impressive individual numbers while setting up teammates on the Houston Rockets. His supporting cast of outside shooters should be around next season, but even if they aren't, he can still knife his way to the free-throw line whenever he wants.
He can also drain step-back jumpers, slip pocket passes on the money and sprinkle soft lobs whenever the defense tires of watching him put the ball in the basket himself.
Harden is averaging 29.1 points and 11.3 assists per game, which leads the league. He also leads the league in win shares (10.9) and cut the percentage of his shots that are long twos in half from last season.
Harden's skill set makes teammates better without cutting into his own individual statistics. He is Houston's star and glue guy at the exact same time, and that won't change next season.
Western Conference Backcourt Starter: Stephen Curry
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The most erroneous narrative born during this NBA season's first few months was the pseudo-demise of Steph Curry's meteoric superstardom. Nothing scares opposing fans, coaches and players more than his right wrist. Curry will remain an unguardable supernova for at least a few more years before he smolders on for however long he wants as the game's most threatening catch-and-shoot weapon.
Just over 40 percent of all his shots are open threes, and every time he inexplicably springs free, you wonder if whoever's guarding him has internet access or owns a television. Do they know what's coming and don't care, or was a mistake simply made earlier in the play?
Even though Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Kevin Durant are teammates, the priority should be to stop Curry at all costs.
Western Conference Frontcourt Starter: Kevin Durant
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Whether he's in Oklahoma City, Oakland or Budapest, Kevin Durant is the world's purest scorer. He gets buckets from anywhere and 30-point efforts don't require any real assistance. But this version of KD, on the most stacked team he's ever played for, is automatic slaughter.
He's never operated with this much space, at this tempo, and surrounded by so many unselfish players. He relinquishes the ball with confidence, all knowing he'll either get it back in an even more advantageous situation or his other four teammates will leverage his gravity to create an efficient look among themselves.
As one of the five best all-around players in the entire world, he's a lock to start in next year's All-Star Game.
Western Conference Frontcourt Starter: Kawhi Leonard
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Kawhi Leonard's resume, reputation and two-way dominance make him a virtual lock to start in the next five All-Star Games. He's an all-time individual defender who's morphed into one of basketball's most unstoppable individual scorers.
Leonard discovered the free-throw line this year, an eye-opening development that's allowed him to increase his true shooting percentage while even more playmaking responsibilities are heaped onto his plate.
The scary thing is that Leonard might be even more effective if the Spurs unleashed him as a small-ball 4 more than they do. According to Basketball Reference, 92 percent of his minutes have been at small forward, which is the most time he's logged at that position in his entire career.
Leonard still makes it all look easy, though. He's a mid-range assassin, with C.J. McCollum being the only player more accurate on at least 200 attempts this season. There's a chance Leonard is already the best player in the world. That may be a universally accepted fact next season, when he's still just 26 years old.
Western Conference Frontcourt Starter: Karl-Anthony Towns
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The third year of Karl-Anthony Towns' boundless career could very well play out like the back half of John Wick: Chapter 2. After he was a unanimous pick for Rookie of the Year, Towns entered his sophomore season prematurely crowned as a legitimate MVP candidate who was already prepared to carry Minnesota to the playoffs.
Instead, he's badly struggled on defense, and the Timberwolves are headed to the lottery. But Towns' individual numbers will still numb your brain. He's averaging 24 points, 12 rebounds and three assists per game, and despite a rise in his usage rate, Towns' turnover percentage has slightly dropped and he's upped his efficiency.
He's still on track to make the Hall of Fame, and the narrative will be on his side next year if/when Minnesota figures out how to close tight games.
Western Conference Backcourt Reserve: Russell Westbrook
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Russell Westbrook can't play any better than he currently is. He stretches every muscle, bone and tendon in his body to the breaking point every second he's on the court.
Nobody zips to the rim like Westbrook. Nobody pulls up on a dime and hovers straight in the air like a floating Statue of Liberty before knocking down a jumper. He has "Best Player in the Universe" nights more often than not, but he also turns 29 next year and it won't be easy for Oklahoma City to solve its shooting problem over the summer.
There's a decent chance Westbrook's efficiency will drop while his usage rate rises even higher. And it's also possible that the Thunder won't make the playoffs next year. Those two factors aren't enough to keep him out of the starting lineup, but Steph Curry figures to still be the better player.
Western Conference Backcourt Reserve: Chris Paul
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It's a little bland to choose Chris Paul instead of a younger spark plug like Devin Booker, Zach LaVine or C.J. McCollum. But who honestly believes Paul won't bounce back next season and play at an All-Star level after he was inexplicably left off this year's team?
Yes, he'll be 32. But this side of LeBron James, who's been more consistent and intelligent than Paul? He still operates a top-flight offense and is the best defender at his position.
Even though he's been out with a thumb injury these last few weeks, he still holds a massive lead over every other player in ESPN's real plus-minus and the Los Angeles Clippers are 20.9 points per 100 possessions better when he's on the floor than when he sits—a plus/minus net rating that nearly doubles his career average.
Paul is currently shooting the ball better than he ever has, and he leads the NBA in win shares per 48 minutes. It's hard to project when he'll fall off until the day he actually does.
Western Conference Frontcourt Reserve: Anthony Davis
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Leaving Anthony Davis out of the starting lineup feels sacrilegious, but the Western Conference frontcourt pool is no joke, and the three players above him could/should all be on superior squads next season.
Davis is also, sadly, injury-prone and plays for a franchise that still doesn't know if it should play him at power forward or center. That said, he's still the best 23-year-old in the world, and a quick look at his Basketball Reference page might make you feel lightheaded.
Davis' defense has tightened up this year, and it's disappointing when he doesn't score more than 25 points. He's a supreme talent.
Western Conference Frontcourt Reserve: Draymond Green
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Draymond Green is arguably the best help defender since Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan in their primes. He also symbolizes the primal rage that will likely spur Golden State to a third straight NBA Finals.
There's no falling asleep at the wheel when Green is in the car.
To boot, he might be the most indispensable cog on a team that has two first-ballot Hall of Famers and three of the greatest shooters who ever lived. He moves the ball, shoots threes and breathes a fire that won't be going out anytime soon.
Western Conference Frontcourt Reserve: Nikola Jokic
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Nikola Jokic is the breakout center of the 2016-17 season—over everyone including Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns. The way he transformed Denver's unimpressive offense into a jubilant pass-and-cut affair is remarkable.
Can you name another player you'd rather have as a teammate in a pickup game? Jokic's passes belong in a museum, and his stellar play has convinced Denver management to try to win sooner than later—see the trade that sent a first-round pick out for Mason Plumlee.
He already has the third-highest true shooting percentage in the league and a knack for controlling the glass. The best part? He turns 22 this month.
If this is Jokic's ceiling, he's already worthy of All-Star consideration. But assuming his development continues into 2018, it's difficult to picture him not making it to the midseason showcase.
Western Conference Wild Card: DeMarcus Cousins
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The sudden emergence of a three-point shot allowed DeMarcus Cousins to lift his game to an unreachable level this year. He'll only be 27 years old next season and has already proven he can make an All-Star team despite playing for a franchise that's the Bizarro San Antonio Spurs.
The temperamental issues that have plagued his entire career still linger, and his teammates don't always look like they're having a good time. But extravagant numbers are extravagant numbers, and Cousins puts them up with more regularity than anybody at his position. He's scored over 30 points 21 times and has logged 33 double-doubles.
Cousins led the league in usage rate last season, and this year it's somehow climbed nearly two points higher. Assuming Cousins doesn't take a significant step backward next season, his spot in the All-Star Game should be considered safe.
Western Conference Wild Card: Blake Griffin
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Injuries have robbed Blake Griffin of appearing in an All-Star Game every year of his career. He hasn't been an All-Star since 2015 after cracking the roster his first five seasons.
Griffin is still really good! He'll only be 28 years old next year, and assuming he and Chris Paul re-sign with the Los Angeles Clippers this summer, he will play for a well-oiled machine that's built to roll through the regular season.
Declining athleticism and the potential for yet another surgery are potential road blocks he'll have to navigate around, but no big man can match what Griffin does in the open floor—his combination of vision, ball-handling and physical strength is unparalleled.
Until the day defenses don't have to double-team Griffin in the post, he's a superstar. If new injuries do pop up and he's unable to play in enough games to justify a spot, look for someone like Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson, Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert, LaMarcus Aldridge or Harrison Barnes to slide right in.
All advanced statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com unless otherwise noted.
