Houston Rockets' Biggest Needs Heading into 2016-17 NBA Trade Deadline
Two things are clear regarding the Houston Rockets’ potential this season: They seem to be a lock for home-court advantage in the first round. But they don’t seem to have much way of moving up.
They have a firm grip on the No. 3 seed, which is better than most Rockets fans could have hoped for entering the season. And they were almost untouchable for a nearly two-month stretch, going 25-4 from Nov. 17 to Jan. 10, the best record in the league, according to NBA.com.
Outside of that span, though, they’re just 13-13 with an assortment of ailments hitting before and after: Patrick Beverley’s knee surgery, Clint Capela’s broken femur and minor illnesses and nicks to Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson.
The Rockets don’t need a major trade, that’s for sure. Nor does James Harden want one. He was unequivocal about that with ESPN.com’s Calvin Watkins: "I love what we have, love it. From top to bottom, we have depth. You can throw any guy in there and they know their role, that's important. I'm going to ride with these guys for sure."
There are, however, minor holes that General Manager Daryl Morey can fill via the trade market, should the right player become available for a decent price. These needs are listed in order of priority, bottom to top.
Players identified by James Herbert of CBSSports.com as potentially on the move, and who fill those holes, are listed speculatively.
5. Another Pull-Up Shooter
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You might be wondering why a team on pace to shatter the record for three-pointers in a season (per Basketball-Reference.com) would be in need of another shooter.
But look at what happens in their losses, and you’ll understand why.
The Rockets mostly rely on two guys to get three-pointers off the bounce: James Harden and Eric Gordon. Harden has 115 unassisted threes, Gordon has 35. When Houston loses Harden averages 2.4 threes on 27.8 percent shooting, and Gordon has 2.4 on 26.3 percent shooting.
Looking at it from the other direction shows the same problem: When Gordon shoots 25 percent or worse from deep, the Rockets are 4-10. When Harden does, they are only 10-8—a little better, but still far below their overall winning percentage.
Houston is decked out with catch-and-shoot three-point shooters, but they need that catalyst who can get the offense started and make everything else. They don’t need a superstar, just someone who can come in cold and drain a couple of threes when things aren’t going well. Bringing back Jason Terry—who, though not listed in the Herbert piece, I can't imagine he's untouchable—from the Milwaukee Bucks could be a cheap deal worth looking at.
Brandon Knight could be available, as he seems to have taken a back seat to Devin Booker and Eric Bledsoe with the Phoenix Suns. ESPN.com’s Trade Machine establishes that Corey Brewer and K.J. McDaniels would make the money work. And just offloading Knight’s contract might be all Phoenix is looking for.
4. Lockdown Perimeter Defender
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Their offense is clicking most of the time, but the Rockets’ defense has us wondering if they're to be a true contender—though they are ranked 14th in defensive rating at 105.8.
The Rockets numbers don’t change in the clutch overall. However, when they’re behind and desperately need stops, those numbers drop to 16th and 107.6, respectively.
Failing a two-way wing being available, a lockdown defender would be a nice boost for the defense.
Adding another lockdown defender who can at least hit an occasional three—but play multiple positions on defense and frustrate the opponent’s best offensive player—could do a lot. Teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder (Andre Roberson) and the Memphis Grizzlies (Tony Allen) are good in the clutch because they have that kind of defender.
Thabo Sefolosha of the Atlanta Hawks is probably the best name available in this regard. His Defensive Real Plus-Minus is third among small forwards, according to ESPN.com. While his offense is currently lacking, he does hit the three at an acceptable rate (34.4 percent for his career), so the Rockets wouldn’t be forced to play four-on-five on either end of the court.
3. Another Two-Way Small Forward
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The Rockets have wings who can help on offense, such as Trevor Ariza and Sam Dekker. Ariza and Corey Brewer can also help on defense. However, they are absent of wings, other than Ariza, who are a plus on both ends of the court:
Player | ORPM | DRPM |
Trevor Ariza | 1.32 | 1.32 |
Sam Decker | 0.39 | -1.16 |
Corey Brewer | -1.78 | 0.7 |
K.J. McDaniels | -1.79 | -0.72 |
Brewer does have his moments but he’s horribly inconsistent. K.J. McDaniels can't find the court after being on the team for two years. Sam Dekker is evolving quickly but doesn't have the lateral quickness to be a premier perimeter stopper. As a result, the Rockets are 22nd in the NBA in net efficiency, according to HoopsStats.com.
If a two-way 3 hits the market, the Rockets should seriously contemplate making a play, even if it’s the L.A. Lakers' resurgent (and mercurial) Nick Young, who is having his best season yet. P.J. Tucker could also be available from the Suns.
Tucker (33.3 percent from deep, minus-.062 ORPM, plus-0.37 DRPM) offers decent play on both sides of the court, and would thrive in Houston's system with so many wide open looks early in the shot clock. He's 47.6 percent from deep in the first nine seconds of the shot clock.
2. Defensive Rebounder
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There’s a basketball adage that a defensive possession doesn’t end until you secure the rebound. The Rockets are letting their opponents extend too many possessions.
Houston’s 76.5 defensive rebounding percentage ranks at 15th in the league. As a result, they’re also giving up 13.0 second-chance points per game. Those numbers place them at an “average” ranking (which isn’t where you want to be if you’re a contender). But two other stats are even more troubling.
First, the Rockets are 23rd in contested defensive rebound percentage. Second, James Harden is leading them in defensive rebounds with 7.0. It’s not a positive sign when your best rebounder is your point guard.
Both of those numbers suggest that late-game playoff situations could spell doom. One of the most disheartening things in a pivotal playoff game is to get the critical “stop”, only to watch your opponent secure the rebound.
Players who could help and are allegedly available include Taj Gibson, Nerlens Noel and Serge Ibaka, though, the asking prices would vary. All three of them are obtainable without sending a core piece of the current rotation.
1. Rim Protector
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The Rockets have a major problem with rim protection. They give up a 64.7 field-goal percentage within five feet of the basket, which puts them last in the NBA.
That’s in spite of the fact that opponents shoot just 55.5 percent when resident rim protector Clint Capela is the closest defender within six feet of the basket. But there is only so much a single, young center can do.
A lot of the damage when he's on the court is because he's pulled away from the in-high pick and rolls, and the other bigs don't cover for him. When Nene is the closest defender, opponents shoot 69.6 percent. When it’s Ryan Anderson, they shoot 66.8 percent.
There is a need for a second defensive big in late game situations, and for when Capela needs to take a blow. Fortunately for the Rockets, the same three players mentioned in the defensive rebounding section would also fit this bill.
One very intriguing name they should consider is Serge Ibaka, who the Orlando Magic are allegedly shopping. Watkins reported that the Rockets are considering him:
"There is also some interest in Orlando power forward Serge Ibaka, who apparently is on the trade block. Ibaka scored 28 points in 40 minutes in the Magic's loss at Houston on Tuesday night. Ibaka would bring a defensive presence and another shooter that could fit into Mike D'Antoni's offense. In late December when the Rockets lost starting center Clint Capela to a fractured fibula, ESPN's Marc Stein reported Houston entertained acquiring Sacramento center Kosta Koufos.
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Ibaka is a 38.5 percent three-point shooter. And while his defense isn’t on the level it once was, he’s still better than most and can protect the rim. Opponents shoot 1.2 percentage points below their season averages when he’s the closest defender within six feet.
The Rockets would have tremendous versatility with him playing alongside Capela in a four-out, one-in offense, or with him at center alongside Patrick Beverley, Harden, Gordon and Ariza in a super-super-stretchy lineup that can still hold its own defensively.
Brewer and McDaniels are enough to make the money work. Houston also has enough assets between its own 2018 first-round pick, the Denver Nuggets' 2017 second-round selection and the Portland Trail Blazers' second rounder (per RealGM.com). Then there's a litany of rights to overseas players that can probably grease the wheels—particularly since Orlando may be afraid of losing Ibaka for nothing after they overpaid to get him.
Stats for this article were provided by NBA.com, Basketball-Reference.com, and ESPN.com, and are current through Feb. 8.
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