Super Bowl Odds 2017: Prop Picks, Spread Projections for Patriots vs. Falcons

In a little over a week, the NFL will be kicking off its final game of the 2016 season. Only the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons still have a chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy, and they'll face off next Sunday in Super Bowl LI.

This is a game that features two of this year's top quarterbacks in Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. It's also a game that features the league's highest-scoring offense and the league's top defense in points allowed. The Falcons averaged 33.8 points per game in the regular season, while the Patriots allowed just 15.6 points per contest defensively.

The game should also feature some prime betting opportunities.

We're here to take a look at Super Bowl LI and the latest odds, per OddsShark. We'll make our predictions for the game and examine some of the top picks and props for Super Bowl Sunday.

Super Bowl LI

What: New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons

Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas

When: Sunday, February 5

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

National TV: Fox

Live Stream: Fox Sports Go

Line: NE -3

Over/Under: 59

Prediction: New England 27-24

Picks and Props

Patriots and Falcons UNDER 59 Points

It's no surprise that this year's Super Bowl features a historically high over/under. As we already mentioned, the Falcons boast the league's top-scoring offense. The Patriots weren't too far behind during the regular season, scoring an average of 27.6 points per game.

If these two teams meet their season averages, the total would be over 61.

However, we're going to take the under here, and there are a couple of reasons for this, including the stellar Patriots defense we have seen this season.

New England is rated first in overall defense by Pro Football Focus and allowed an average of just 15.6 points per game during the regular season. No team allowed fewer points this year. The Patriots allowed more than 25 points only once.

Last weekend, the Patriots defense held the Pittsburgh Steelers—a team rated fifth in overall offense by Pro Football Focus—to just 17 points.

The other reason we're going with the under is because Atlanta's defense is playing incredibly well at exactly the right time. While Atlanta allowed an average of 25.4 points per game in the regular season, the defense has allowed just 19.3 points per game over the last four weeks of the regular season and the playoffs.

The Falcons, remember, are led by a defensively driven head coach in Dan Quinn.

"I remember him saying this defense was good enough to reach the Super Bowl," rookie linebacker De'Vondre Campbell said of Quinn, per Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com. "He showed us he believed in us."

We believe this Super Bowl will feature quite a bit of defense and will keep the final score south of the 59-point total.

Devonta Freeman UNDER 57.5 Yards Rushing

One interesting prop we found over at OddsChecker.com involves Falcons running back Devonta Freeman and his total rushing yards. The over/under is set at 57.5 for the entire game.

We like Freeman a lot as a player and believe the Falcons will lean fairly heavily on the run in order to keep Brady off of the field as much as possible. However, there are a couple of reasons why we're going to take the under here.

The first is that the Patriots feature one of the league's better run defenses. New England is rated second against the run by Pro Football Focus and allowed an average of just 88.6 yards per game on the ground in the regular season.

The second reason is that the Falcons feature a split backfield. Freeman is going to have to share carries with Tevin Coleman, so even if the team is able to have some success on the ground, we cannot pencil Freeman in for the bulk of the carries.

Freeman had fewer than 58 yards rushing eight times in the regular season and in both playoff games.

If the Falcons struggle to consistently move the ball on the ground, expect the team to switch to screen and swing passes in order to compensate. This may lead to more total yardage for Freeman, but it's unlikely to boost his rushing total.

Tom Brady OVER 300.5 Passing Yards

Another intriguing prop over at OddsChecker.com has an over/under for Brady's passing yards set at 300.5.

While we do like what the Falcons are doing on defense right now, we're going to go with the over here. There are two big reasons for this.

The first is that while the Falcons are steadily improving on defense, they are still far from an elite unit. Only four teams allowed more than the 266.7 passing yards per game the Falcons allowed during the 2016 regular season.

Even with the Falcons defense all over him for much of the game, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers still managed to produce 287 yards in the NFC title game.

Coincidentally, 287 is also the number of yards Brady threw for against the Houston Texans in the divisional round. In what was his worst performance of the entire year, Brady completed less than 50 percent of his passes and tossed two interceptions. However, Brady still found himself 14 yards shy of the 301-yard threshold.

The Texans are rated fifth in overall defense by Pro Football Focus. The Falcons are rated 14th.

Simply put, the Patriots offense runs through Brady. If the Patriots have any hope of matching points with the Falcons, Brady is going to have to throw early and often. This should lead to a notable output, win or lose.