Kawhi Leonard's Brilliance May Not Be Enough for Flawed San Antonio Spurs
SAN ANTONIO — The Spurs arrived at the midpoint of the NBA season with the league's second-best record (32-9), thanks in large part to their ascendant star, Kawhi Leonard.
He has continued a career progression toward becoming one of the greatest two-way players of his generation, something Spurs coach Gregg Popovich can summarize in the simplest terms: "He plays both ends of the court like nobody's business."
And yet, despite Leonard's brilliance and the team's gaudy record, this season's Spurs have evinced flaws that portend potential playoff problems.
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So Far, So Good
San Antonio is currently ranked No. 4 in offensive efficiency (111.7 points per 100 possessions), No. 3 in defensive efficiency (101.8 points allowed per 100 possessions) and No. 2 in both net efficiency (plus-9.8 point differential per 100 possessions) and margin of victory (plus-8.83).
Its two-time defending Defensive Player of the Year (Leonard) has made another major jump in offensive production. His scoring average is up by almost four points per game, from 21.2 last season to 25.1, a quantum leap that puts him in the NBA's top-10 scorers during a season dominated by amazing offensive performance.
Leonard will enter Saturday's prime-time showdown against the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers, having scored 30 or more points in five straight games, something not even Tim Duncan accomplished during his 19 years in silver and black.
"The Klaw" has become one of the most efficient scorers in the game, making 49 percent of his shots (fifth-best among perimeter players) and 41.6 percent from distance, according to Bleacher Report Insights. That perimeter shooting percentage puts him ahead of Kevin Durant (40.1), Kyle Korver (40.1), Steph Curry (39.9) and Klay Thompson (39.0). He is also No. 4 in free-throw percentage (90.9) and ninth in free-throw attempts (288).
Black Clouds
Even before starting center Pau Gasol broke a bone in his left hand during the pregame layup line Thursday night, some defects were evident and cause for alarm.
Chief among these: inconsistency in execution at both ends of the court.
The inconsistency has been so great that it has brought forth Popovich's churlish side more often than one would expect from the coach of a team that was 33-9 as it landed in Cleveland for Saturday's matchup.
Popovich's latest lament followed a win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday in which the Spurs gave up 71 points during the first half before limiting the T-Wolves to 43 in the second half of a 122-114 win.
"Once again, as we've done very often, a tale of two halves," Popovich said afterward. "We're not where we want to be. That's all I know. And no team is where they want to be. Maybe Golden State is. But the rest of us are trying to get there."
San Antonio's defensive breakdowns have occurred far more often than last season, when the Spurs were No. 1 in defensive efficiency with a remarkably stingy 96.6 points allowed per 100 possessions. Minnesota's 71-point first half also marked the seventh time in 41 games a Spurs opponent had scored 60 or more points in one half.
Opponents reached 60 in one half only 10 times in 82 games last season.
Some of the inconsistency came with the offseason roster makeover that brought seven new players to the opening night roster—backup point guard Nicolas Laprovittola has since been waived—and bench rotations have been a work in progress all season.
The roster remains deep but no is longer the versatile, interchangeable unit of the last several seasons, when Boris Diaw could play multiple positions on a productive second unit that included 39-year-old guard/forward Manu Ginobili and two-way guard Patty Mills. Though those two veterans remain, one can't help but notice how "easy" it was to mix and match around the departed Tim Duncan.
It's hardly surprising the Spurs have not been as consistently excellent on defense as they were last season, and it is at the defensive end where Duncan's absence is most evident.
He was an All-Defensive Team selection 15 times in 19 years. Gasol is taller and longer but never once has made an All-Defensive team. Plus, at age 36, his defensive flaws are magnified.
A veteran NBA player personnel executive—whose team evaluated Gasol when he became a free agent last July—was left with an overriding conclusion: Gasol no longer could move his feet and was serially abused in middle pick-and-roll plays.
Silver Linings
Of course, the Spurs didn't expect Gasol to defend the pick-and-roll like Duncan. They just expected him to score more than Timmy had in his final season.
And he has: Shooting 51 percent from the field and 46.5 percent on 43 three-pointers, Gasol averages 11.7 points per game, third on the team behind Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge (17.6).
But when Popovich needs stops in crunch time, athletic 7-footer Dewayne Dedmon often has been on the court rather than Gasol. Veteran David Lee started in Gasol's spot during Thursday's game and pulled down 16 rebounds. He likely will start against the Cavaliers.
A Friday report in The Vertical by Adrian Wojnarowski indicated that Gasol had surgery to repair his fractured fourth metacarpal, which means Lee should expect to start at least 15 games.
Gasol's absence will give Popovich longer looks at Lee, Dedmon and 6'10" rookie Davis Bertans. After Aldridge, they are the only players who can be considered legitimate bigs. Lee, a banger who doesn't need the ball as often as Gasol, seems like a solid fit on the front line with Aldridge and Leonard.
Aldridge's presence in the post, where he employs a slick turnaround jumper with fade, plus a killer up-and-under move, demands serious defensive attention. That makes him the antidote to the double-teams Leonard has begun to see nearly every time he catches in half-court sets. Bertans is a stretch 4 who has made 26 of 66 shots from range and is also capable of keeping teams honest against Leonard.
Defensive lapses and general inconsistency aside, the Spurs' primary problem is what Duncan's absence has meant to the team's overall mental toughness. Fighting through flaws involves mental discipline and agility.
Duncan always showed his teammates how it was done.
"Even as we witnessed the erosion of what Tim could do to dominate a game, physically, he could still maintain just the mental stability of the team," said former teammate Brent Barry, who played on the Spurs' 2005 and 2007 championship teams.
"You could unwaveringly rely on Tim in those moments when mental toughness was demanded and plays had to be made.
"Now, the moments Manu and Tony [Parker] could offer up similar play has come down as they have gotten older. Of course, each can still make a play, but can they sustain six minutes, or so, or a quarter like that? Manu can still have two steals, a dunk, one drive, but that ceiling that once seemed unlimited for him has come down a bit."
Parker is a master of running Popovich's offense—the Spurs coach has compared him favorably to Avery Johnson as a floor general—but also has missed 10 games this season. Popovich has rested him twice, but Parker also has been bothered by nagging soreness in his left foot and ankle. That has given rookie Dejounte Murray opportunity to get some valuable experience, and the 20-year-old from the University of Washington seems like a quick study.
He scored a season-high 24 points on just 11 shots against the Nuggets on Thursday. Murray is an athletic 6'5", with long arms and good defensive instincts. That is going to give Popovich something to think about when the Spurs match up in the playoffs against Western Conference teams with productive point guards.
The Spurs are on course for yet another season with 60 or more wins—they have had five of those, including last season's franchise-record 67-15. However, they face the prospect they once presented to teams like the 60-plus-win Phoenix Suns of 2004-05 and 2006-07: a Western Conference superteam that was even better.
"For sure, they're a great team," said an Eastern Conference scout who has worked for several NBA teams over the past 25 years.
"But it always depends on the year. It just happens that Golden State and Cleveland are loaded. The Spurs are loaded in many respects, but some of their key guys are older. Tony Parker is not Tony Parker any more. Manu can't do as much as he used to.
"When you have Curry, Thompson and Durant in their primes and you're contesting that with Kawhi, in his prime, and these other guys who are aging, well, you're in trouble."
Leonard's season-to-season improvement since his 2011-12 rookie season has been a rocket ride, and he explains it as a willingness to fail in order to succeed. If he understands that his next meaningful step is approximating Duncan's quiet leadership in maintaining the requisite mental stability during the most stressful playoff moments, the Spurs have a chance to calm the troubled waters of the playoffs.
All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Stats are courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
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