2016-17 NBA Season Predictions for Each Chicago Bulls Player
The Chicago Bulls' faux makeover was one of the offseason's biggest stories. Seemingly never before in the annals of NBA history had a front office tried more to obtain players who work against the philosophy of the coach it hired (for his philosophy) just the year before.
And yet the starting five of Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson and Robin Lopez have played 40 minutes together between the preseason and regular season, according to NBAWowy.com. The offensive rating was 111 in those minutes; the defensive rating was 90.
So if small sample sizes and the preseason are your things, get giddy.
The Bulls' 105-99 opening-night win against the Boston Celtics at the United Center was a surprise. However, the C's were short-handed and on the second game of a back-to-back, so fans should savor it, but also temper enthusiasm.
The truth is, the Bulls are still mostly a mystery, but we're going to try and project the stats and role of each Bull here. A quick bookkeeping note: The sum of the stats will seem "too high" because not every player plays every game.
Rankings are according to the players' projected production and value.
End of Bench
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15. Paul Zipser (SG/SF)
Paul Zipser was the Bulls' second-round pick in this year's draft. The 22-year-old German had a solid preseason, showing a well-rounded skill set. He has a smooth-looking shot, defends the 2, 3 and 4 and has surprising skills with the ball. He has a chance to move up on the depth chart, and if he does, these projections will go out the window.
Predicted Per-Game Stats: 3.1 Points, 1.2 Rebounds, 0.4 Assists, 0.2 Steals
14. R.J. Hunter (SG)
The rotation is already unsettled, so adding R.J. Hunter as the ninth new addition to the roster makes it hard to project where he'll fit. The Celtics waived the 28th pick of the 2015 draft, and the Bulls were quick to swoop, announcing Thursday that they signed him to a contract. The 6'5" guard shot just 30.2 percent from three last year, though he has a reputation as a shooter. The Bulls are hoping that pans out.
Predicted Per-Game Stats: 2.7 Points, 1.1 Rebounds, 0.4 Assists, 0.4 Steals
13. Jerian Grant (PG)
Jerian Grant had a solid preseason, with a 16.1 player efficiency rating, according to RealGM. He also shot 41.7 percent from deep, albeit on 12 shots. If he's not in the regular rotation, it would behoove the front office of Gar Forman and John Paxson to send him to Chicago's new NBA D-League affiliate, the Windy City Bulls. With the crowded situation in the Bulls backcourt, he could use the playing time to get some confidence and consistency.
Predicted Per-Game Stats: 3.5 Points, 0.7 Rebounds, 1.5 Assists, 0.3 Steals
12. Denzel Valentine (SG)
The most NBA-ready draft pick from this summer looks to be a regular rotation piece for the Bulls. His court vision (7.8 assists per game his senior year at Michigan State, according to Sports-Reference.com) and three-point shooting (44.4 percent) make him the only Bull who can both shoot and facilitate consistently. An ankle sprain in his preseason debut curtailed him for the duration of the exhibition, though, so he'll start a little slow.
Predicted Per-Game Stats: 6.3 Points, 3.1 Assists, 2.1 Rebounds, 0.6 Steals
11. Bobby Portis (PF/C)
Bobby Portis had a shot at the starting power forward spot, but his preseason was unremarkable. He had the second-most minutes of any Bull, according to NBA.com, but wasn't productive. He shot 32.7 percent from the field and 20.0 percent from deep. He'll get minutes and have his moments, but this year will be up and down for the second-year player out of Arkansas.
Predicted Per-Game Stats: 7.4 Points, 6.1 Rebounds, 1.0 Assists, 0.5 Steals, 0.5 Blocks
Top of Bench
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10. Cristiano Felicio (C)
Cristiano Felicio was every Bulls fan's favorite crush at the tail end of last season. He's a well-rounded big man who rebounds, passes out of the post and defends. His only struggle is consistency. But the larger issue is that he's the fifth big on the depth chart, and that's going to limit his minutes.
Predicted Per-Game Stats: 4.8 Points, 4.9 Rebounds, .7 Assists, 0.4 Blocks
9. Isaiah Canaan (PG)
Easily the best-shooting guard on the roster, Isaiah Canaan drilled 176 threes last year, so that's going to get him in games. He's a defensive liability, though, and doesn't create plays for others. Expect to see him more when a playmaker like Butler, Wade or even Valentine is running the show.
Predicted Per-Game Stats: 8.1 Points, 1.3 Rebounds, 1.6 Assists, 0.3 Steals
8. Michael Carter-Williams (PG)
The Bulls obtained Michael Carter-Williams in a preseason trade with the Milwaukee Bucks for the low, low price of Tony Snell. It's hard to say who won, though. Carter-Williams is the better player, but Snell is the better shooter, and that's the skill the Bulls need most. One thing is clear: MCW is the Bulls' primary backup point guard. He will add defense and passing, and he looked good in his debut.
Predicted Per-Game Stats: 11.4 Points, 4.7 Assists, 4.5 Rebounds, 1.2 Steals, 0.3 Blocks
7. Doug McDermott (SF/PF)
The most evident thing from preseason play? Head coach Fred Hoiberg is going all-in on Doug McDermott. The third-year player out of Creighton logged 42 more minutes than any Bull and also scored the most points. He has a reputation as just being a "shooter," but he's showing he can score in a variety of ways. He is still a major liability on defense, lacking the lateral quickness to guard most 3s or length to guard 4s.
Predicted Per-Game Stats: 13.1 Points, 1.0 Assists, 3.7 Rebounds, 0.3 Steals, 0.1 Blocks
6. Nikola Mirotic (PF)
Nikola Mirotic is in the final year of his contract already, and a lot of the glossy veneer from his rookie season is fading. He had a dreadful preseason, averaging 7.5 points on 34.1 percent shooting and 4.7 boards in 21.4 minutes. When he's down, he's virtually unplayable, but when he's up, he can carry an offense. There is no in-between with this guy.
Predicted Per-Game Stats: 13.7 Points, 6.7 Rebounds, 1.6 Assists, 0.9 Steals, 0.7 Blocks
5. Robin Lopez (C)
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Lopez is the Bulls' new starting center. Joakim Noah left to join his buddy, Derrick Rose, with the New York Knicks after Rose was traded, in part, for Lopez.
In a lot of ways, Lopez, with his high energy, wild hair and genuine personality, is the best possible replacement for Noah. Negatively, Lopez doesn't have the same level of defense or passing that Noah offered. However, he does have much better health, having missed just 15 games in the last four years.
Stability is something the Bulls need with a revolving door for a lineup the last six seasons.
The 7'0", 255-pound big man has a career PER of 16.9 and .135 win shares per 48 minutes. Those aren't spectacular numbers, but they are above average.
Lopez's greatest contribution should be a consistently solid, stabilizing force, which is something you can't measure.
He does finish well around the rim (187-of-302 in 2015-16), so look for the Bulls to take advantage of that with their array of quality passers. And as he demonstrated with his six offensive rebounds in the season opener, he'll be giving his teammates a lot of second chances.
Predicted Per-Game Stats: 11.1 Points, 8.9 Rebounds, 1.4 Assists, 1.7 Blocks
4. Rajon Rondo (PG)
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Rondo is the most difficult new piece to figure out. He may also be the most important new piece there is, will have the ball in his hand the most and seems to be emerging as the vocal leader of the team.
K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune spoke with Rondo about the challenges heading into the season, and Rondo conferred:
"Me personally, I would like our communication to get better. But that's going to take time and guys trusting each other, playing with one another and getting out (of their) comfort zone.
Not everybody's a talker. (But) in the locker room we talk a lot, so it shouldn't be hard to translate on the floor.
"
If Rondo can "eat" enough of Hoiberg's offense to "metabolize" it and make it his own, things will be interesting. It won't be the Golden State Warriors out there, but maybe it doesn't have to be.
There will be challenges, certainly, but having three guys who create with the rock isn't all bad. It's just an issue of how well they play together, and Rondo seems to be the key to that. There's a chance for him to have a bit of a renaissance season.
Predicted Per-Game Stats: 11.2 Points, 8.9 Assists, 5.7 Rebounds, 2.1 Steals
3. Taj Gibson (PF)
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Gibson is the only player left from the squad that made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2011. The Bulls tried to trade him at the deadline last year, per Johnson, and he could be on the move this time around.
There is also the possibility that his spot among the starters is only temporary until Mirotic remembers how to put the ball in the net.
Gibson is your prototypical "hard-hat, lunch-pail" blue-collar worker on both ends of the court. He's a diligent and capable defender who can defend the isolation play (72.5 percentile last season) or the post-up.
He has a jump shot to about 15 feet, and he's efficient at the rim.
He's not without his flaws. He can try too many moves when trying to post-up; he's susceptible to having the chair pulled out from under him because of it, and he'd be better served passing out of the post more often.
But he's a complete player with an expiring contract who would make most teams better.
Predicted Per-Game Stats: 11.3 Points, 7.2 Rebounds, 1.3 Assists, 0.6 Steals, 1.2 Blocks
2. Dwyane Wade (SG)
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Wade in a Chicago uniform still looks odd.
Especially when he's inexplicably shooting threes.
Last season, he made 7-of-44 from deep. Through the 166 minutes he's played this year (including the preseason), he's gone 11-of-27 (40.7 percent). There is going to be some regression, but we shouldn't be too surprised.
Vincent Goodwill of CSN Chicago tweeted in September that Hoiberg was encouraging Wade to shoot threes. People mocked.
Who's laughing now? Huh?
To be fair, it's been five years since Wade topped the 30 percent mark from deep, and he's 28.6 percent for his career. However, he's also been taking most of his shots off the bounce over that time. These new three-point looks are coming with no defenders in the same solar system.
Eventually, defenders will realize that Wade can hit a completely uncontested three and start accounting for that, but in doing so, the narrative about not being able to stretch the court dissolves a little bit.
Beyond that, Wade might be getting a little long in the tooth, but he still does a lot of things well. An underrated aspect of the "Three Alphas" (Wade, Rondo and Butler) is that they are all effective and willing passers. Wade is also an exceptional rebounder for his position. Those skills haven't dropped off much as Wade has aged.
He is one of only three players in NBA history who has career averages of 35 points, seven rebounds and seven assists per 100 possessions, according to Basketball-Reference.com. The other two: LeBron James and Michael Jordan.
Wade also knows how to be the "second-best" player on the team, having had that experience with James.
Predicted Per-Game Stats: 18.8 Points, 4.3 Assists, 4.1 Rebounds, 1.0 Steals, 0.5 Blocks
1. Jimmy Butler (SF)
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Butler doesn't care what you think about the Bulls, according to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times:
"No, I don’t pay attention to it. But I hear what people say. And people may come up and say to me, ‘Yo, y’all going to win X amount of games.’ I understand everybody’s entitled to their opinion. I think the first amendment says that. That doesn’t mean I have to take any of their nonsense.
I don’t care to tell you the truth. Their opinion isn’t going to put no food on my table, no way. It isn’t putting any clothes on my back. So I’ll be completely content with the group of guys that are out there with me that are actually helping put food on my table and clothes on my back.
"
Maybe that's a good thing for Butler, the kid from Tomball, Texas, who had to overcome obstacles his whole life didn't seem suited for "favorite" status. Now back to being overlooked, it seems he rediscovered that chip on his shoulder again, and he's better that way.
He's the best player on the team, and Wade and Rondo both embrace that.
If Butler stays healthy, the Bulls should be a playoff team, particularly if he can continue to mesh well with the other two Alphas.
Predicted Per-Game Stats: 22.1 Points, 5.8 Rebounds, 5.1 Assists, 2.0 Steals, 0.6 Blocks
All stats for this article were obtained from NBA.com or Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise cited.
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