What's Plan B If Cleveland Cavaliers' J.R. Smith Doesn't Return?
As the regular season quickly approaches, J.R. Smith remains without a Cleveland Cavaliers contract.
It's widely assumed Smith will return, especially with so few teams having the considerable cap space left to sign the 31-year-old sharpshooter.
Smith wants to get paid. The Cavs absolutely want him back, but are extremely cash conscious after paying $54 million in luxury taxes alone during 2015-16.
And so we wait, with the NBA champions missing their starting shooting guard, perhaps even for the start of the regular season.
Smith won't come cheap, but do the Cavaliers really have a Plan B?
The Importance of "Swish"
Smith is the Cavaliers' best three-point shooter in a league that's progressively moving outside the arc.
He led the team with 2.6 makes per game, connecting on 40.0 percent of his attempts. Smith was even better in the playoffs, upping his success rate to 43.0 percent. At 6'6", he can guard multiple positions and has been more engaged without the ball than at any point of his career.
"He brings a dimension to our team that we just don't have," James said. "He's a two way player. He's a space guy and a great locker room guy. He's been great in the community and things of that nature as well. So we look forward to getting him back."
What makes Smith even more special? His ability to seamlessly catch-and-shoot or play an effective isolation game.
He led the Cavs in catch and shoot three-pointers, converting 169-of-395 for 42.8 percent, via BR Insights. This success rate was good for 11th overall in the NBA among players attempting three such shots or more. Smith also led the Cavaliers in contested three-pointers made (44-of-138) and uncontested three-pointers (160-of-372). The 44 contested treys were more than twice as many as anyone else on the team, easily outdistancing Irving's 21.
Even with taking such an incredible amount of contested looks, Smith was Cleveland's second-most accurate shooter next to Matthew Dellavedova (41.0 percent). When asked to bail the team out of an expiring shot clock or create for himself, Smith delivered. Among players with at least 50 isolation possessions, he ranked second on the Cavs with 1.07 PPP.
Whatever Plan B Cleveland can muster to hold out won't be good enough. The Cavaliers need Smith, perhaps even more than he needs them.
Let's Get Real
Cleveland remains the best fit for Smith, where he's thrived as a 3-and-D guy between Kyrie Irving and LeBron James. His passion and contributions have fit in beautifully on a team needing perimeter athleticism.
Still, other contenders may come calling.
The Boston Celtics, thought to be one of the Eastern Conference's best teams this year, are rumored to be eyeing Smith. Frank Isola of the New York Daily News reports that "several teams" have interest in the former Sixth Man of the Year, noting the Celtics and their $9 million in cap space lead the pack.
This would be a long shot for Smith, who Isola notes is seeking $15 million annually. Cleveland is offering between $11 million and $12 million per year and a starting job. Boston already has Avery Bradley entrenched in its starting lineup, moving Smith back to a reserve role.
A pay cut and backup job? Not going to happen.
The only teams that could offer Smith the $15 million (and, probably, the job) he seeks are the Philadelphia 76ers, Brooklyn Nets and Denver Nuggets, according to spotrac.com. There's no way he leaves James and Cleveland for any of those destinations.
The golden rule revolving the Cavaliers remains; LeBron gets what LeBron wants. Make no mistake, James is a big fan of Smith.
"J.R. is probably the most liked guy on the team," James said at media day. "We all know from you guys and us in the locker room. J.R.'s a huge piece of our team, and without him we don't win a championship."
Smith may not be a Cavalier just yet, but he hasn't left Cleveland, either.
Before Game 2 of the American League Division Series between the Cleveland Indians and Boston Red Sox on Oct. 7, James addressed the Progressive Field crowd. Joining him were teammates Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, Richard Jefferson, James Jones, Dahntay Jones, and of course, Smith. If he's looking to skip town in search of a bigger payday, Smith's certainly doing a good job of hiding it.
Cleveland has the potential to offer the money he wants, or at least come to an agreement somewhere in the ballpark. A starting role where he's proven to thrive is waiting, along with the ability to receive passes from one of the greatest players of all time. There's also the motivation to get a deal done by Oct. 25, when the Cavaliers open the season and accept their championship rings.
It would be an absolute shame if Smith isn't there, given all he meant to the team's Finals run. Thus, his return is all but guaranteed, even if we may have to wait awhile to experience it.
Temporary Plan B, if Necessary
Smith will be back, but when? Tristan Thompson's holdout lasted all the way to the start of the regular season a year ago, something James seems annoyed over having to go through again.
"I hate coming into another season – two years in a row – with one of my big guns not here," James said via Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com. "So, for a leader of a team and for me personally, I just hate to deal with this s--- again. It's just too big of a piece to our team to have to deal with in another training camp."
Thus, the Cavaliers and head coach Tyronn Lue have to approach the season with a backup plan in mind.
The first option is Iman Shumpert, who's currently starting at shooting guard in the preseason. Last year was perhaps his worst as a pro, as he averaged a career-low 5.8 points on 37.4 percent shooting from the field and 29.5 percent from three. Shumpert missed 28 games, primarily following September wrist surgery. His typically stellar defense was lacking, as opponents routinely caught him napping for easy backdoor cuts.
Lue even went as far as to label Smith, not Shumpert or James, the Cavs' best defensive player at the time.
While the 26-year-old Shumpert could easily regain his defensive form, there's little chance he becomes the catch-and-shoot weapon Smith is.
The good news? Shumpert has come into the preseason looking like a different player. He told Bleacher Report on media day that he was down 12 pounds from last year's 220-pound frame and was completely healthy. In 32 minutes of action over two preseason games, he has chipped in 10 points, four rebounds, five assists, two steals, two blocks and is shooting 4-of-7 from the field (57.1 percent) and 2-of-3 (66.7 percent) from deep.
"Shump is just ready to step in," Irving said via Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. "As a professional, it's his job as well as our job to make sure we all integrate ourselves -- whoever is out there. As a two-guard for us, he's been working on his jump shot a lot and coming into this preseason definitely impacting the ball like he does defensively. He understands that and he's filling in for J.R. right now. He's our starting two-guard right now."
On the right team, Shumpert is good enough to start. With the way the Cavaliers operate and their need for a floor-spacer on the wing, however, he's better coming off the bench.
Behind Shumpert, the shooting guard position becomes a barren wasteland of question marks. Cleveland currently has Jordan McRae, DeAndre Liggins, Dahntay Jones and Markel Brown on their training camp roster.
None are even a guarantee to make the team, with McRae the only member with a chance to crack the rotation.
Shumpert is a fine spot starter, and can hold the Cavs over for awhile. But this team still desperately needs its free-styling three-point gunner, if only to get the rest of the position's depth chart back in order.
Stray Bounces
Felder Watch
The preseason can be a mixed bag (especially with resting stars), but one player is worth tuning in to watch right now.
Kay Felder, Cleveland's rookie point guard, has looked NBA ready from the start. He's averaging 11.0 points, 2.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists in 25.8 minutes over three games. With no Mo Williams (retirement) or Dellavedova (free agent), Felder may have gotten the backup job out of necessity, but already looks like he can handle it.
Shooting Perfection
Channing Frye has yet to miss a three-pointer this preseason, starting a perfect 6-for-6.
At 6'11", expect the Cavs to use him at center a lot this season, pulling opposing big men out of the paint and opening up driving lanes for James and Irving.
Future Reinforcements
More wing help should be coming for Cleveland next summer. Cedi Osman, a Cavs second-round pick of 2015, is hoping to wrap up his Euroleague career.
"I hope that the season will be successful for every member of the team and that I will be ready to play in the NBA next season. That’s my goal," Osman wrote, via Eurohoops.net. He also expressed his love for NBA 2K, noting that he "usually" picks the Cavs.
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