Pacers 2016-17 Schedule: Top Games, Championship Odds and Record Predictions
Change isn't always for the better, and the Indiana Pacers could learn that the hard way following an eventful summer.
Team president Larry Bird wasn't content to stick with the status quo after the Pacers exited in the first round of the 2016 playoffs. He opted against signing head coach Frank Vogel to a new deal. He also jettisoned one of the few remaining remnants from better times when he traded George Hill to the Utah Jazz, receiving Jeff Teague in a three-team deal with the Atlanta Hawks.
Even before Vogel's departure, Indiana was clearly in a period of transition. His defense-first philosophy is no longer conducive to playoff success in the NBA, and the roster wasn't built for the league's current emphasis on three-point shooting.
As a result, the Pacers will look a lot different than they did a year ago. Joining Teague will be Al Jefferson and Thaddeus Young. Indiana will be a better offensive team, but that could come at a major cost on the defensive end.
Below is a look at the Pacers' most intriguing matchups for the upcoming season and a prediction for how they'll finish the year.
2016-17 Details
Season Opener: Wednesday, Oct. 26 vs. Dallas Mavericks
Championship Odds: 66-1 (via Odds Shark)
Top Matchups
When: Nov. 14, Jan. 1, Feb. 1 and April 8
Vogel is one of the most successful coaches in Pacers history. He took Indiana to back-to-back Eastern Conference Finals in 2013 and 2014, and his 250 wins are second to Slick Leonard (529). But that didn't stop the Pacers from kicking Vogel to the curb in May.
Vogel is now in charge of the Orlando Magic.
"I really wanted to stay in Indiana forever, but this is a business and you've got to respect the decisions that are made," he said in July, per the Indianapolis Star's Nate Taylor. "I was happy that coach Nate [McMillan] got hired in Indiana."
Although he didn't openly criticize the Pacers regarding the departure, there will likely be a small piece of Vogel looking for revenge when Indiana and Orlando first meet in the regular season. He'll want to show the Pacers they made a mistake in letting him go.
Similarly, McMillan will be under a little extra pressure to show the Pacers are better off without their former head coach.
Many at the time questioned whether replacing Vogel with McMillan was an upgrade for Indiana. McMillan has a .514 winning percentage (478-452) over 12 years as a head coach compared to a .580 winning percentage (250-181) for Vogel. Only once in five tries did McMillan guide a team past the first round of the playoffs.
Rightly or wrongly, fans will judge McMillan and Bird somewhat based on the outcome of the Magic and Pacers' head-to-head matchups this year and where the two teams sit in the standings. In the event Vogel outfoxes his former assistant, skepticism over his firing in Indiana may grow even louder.
Utah Jazz
When: Jan. 21 and March 20
Sticking with the theme of vengeance, Bird didn't exactly pick the most personal way to tell Hill he'd be going to the Utah Jazz. According to Hill, per Scott Agness of Vigilant Sports, Bird left a voicemail to inform him of the news.
Of course, it's not the first time Bird and the Pacers organization have come under fire for their handling of personnel matters.
There's also a perception that the Pacers might not have truly appreciated what they had in Hill. Following the trade, ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton wasn't sold on Teague being an improvement at point guard:
"I'm not sure why Indiana didn't trust Hill in a playmaking role, but now the Pacers have swapped him for a point guard, Teague, who is a weaker defender and outside shooter (both made 40 percent of their 3s last year, but Hill has been more accurate over the course of his career) but has a longer track record as a playmaker.
Because of the whole range of skills, ESPN's real plus-minus sees this as a downgrade for the Pacers. Hill has consistently rated above average, while Teague was slightly worse than average last season.
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ESPN.com's Zach Lowe concurred on Hill's value:
Revenge games always have the potential to be entertaining. Reggie Jackson might as well have won an NBA title with the way he celebrated a win for the Detroit Pistons over the Oklahoma City Thunder last year.
Hill will almost certainly have a chip on his shoulder when he steps on the court against the Pacers. While not generally thought of as a dynamic scorer, the 30-year-old is a 37.6 percent shooter from three-point range. If motivated to do so, he could have a big game on Jan. 21 in Salt Lake City.
Should the Jazz win, maybe Hill could leave a celebratory voicemail on Bird's phone after the game.
Record Prediction
Following their offseason upheaval, projecting the Pacers' 2016-17 season is tricky.
Indiana added a lot of new pieces in Teague, Jefferson and Young, all of whom are proven NBA veterans. Couple that with Myles Turner's continued development, and improving on last year's 45 is more than possible.
But McMillan's teams have won more than 45 games on only four occasions. There are also significant doubts as to whether McMillan is the guy who can install the uptempo game Bird has desired so much. His Portland Trail Blazers and Seattle Supersonics teams were known primarily for their methodical, defensive style.
Not to mention McMillan has to find a way to accommodate Teague, Paul George and Monta Ellis on the floor at once. Then there are the defensive issues that are bound to crop up when putting Ellis and Teague in the same backcourt.
The Pacers should benefit from the fact that the Eastern Conference largely remained stagnant this offseason, with the exception of the Boston Celtics. Few teams are demonstrably better than they were a year ago. Even the Magic, Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks—all of whom were active in the offseason—only took small steps forward on balance.
Fifty wins is probably Indiana's ceiling, since that would've been good enough for the third seed in the East last year. The team's floor is probably around 30-35 wins in a worst-case scenario.
The Pacers will take a slight step backward as a result of swapping Vogel for McMillan but should still get into the playoffs.
Prediction: 43-39
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