Every SEC Football's Team Best and Worst-Case Scenarios for 2016
With SEC media days behind us, it's smooth sailing until preseason camps for Southeastern Conference football teams, and then the 2016 season will be here.
Those long, slogging summer days are almost over, and it's nearly football time in Tennessee…and Alabama…and Mississippi…and everywhere else.
At this point of the offseason, everybody has massive expectations. After all, everybody's still undefeated, right?
If you listen to the conference's media contingent, it's going to be Alabama over Tennessee in the SEC championship game. That's according to this week's media polls released, and even though the scribes and analysts have been right just five times in 24 years, the Crimson Tide are a safe pick.
Can you imagine two of the oldest rivals meeting twice in the same year? It would be the first time the Volunteers and Tide have met for the conference title since there was a championship game, and it would be one of the toughest tickets in all of sports.
But they aren't the only programs with huge expectations. LSU is expected to be stout again, and if Ole Miss can wade through its off-field worries, the Rebels could shine, too. On the East side, Florida is the defending champion, and Jim McElwain's team has to be better on offense than it was a season ago, right?
Also, there are three new coaches in the East with Georgia's Kirby Smart, South Carolina's Will Muschamp and Missouri's Barry Odom. So, there is new life in all three of those atmospheres.
Expectations abound, so let's take a look at best- and worst-case scenarios for each program this year.
Alabama
1 of 14
Best
It would be unwise to discount the defending national champion Crimson Tide just because they've got to replace a bunch of elite players.
They've got to do that every year, after all, and under Nick Saban, it really hasn't mattered. Yes, Alabama will have a new quarterback in 2016 (let the speculation begin), but three of the last four first-year UA quarterbacks won a national championship.
The other one—Blake Sims—lost in the first round of the inaugural College Football Playoff to Ohio State in '14. So, the process works, folks. By now, everybody knows that.
Replacing Heisman Trophy winning running back Derrick Henry won't be easy, and there are a lot of great defensive players gone, but others remain, such as Jonathan Allen, Tim Williams, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Eddie Jackson and many more.
Tampa Bay Times reporter Matt Baker wrote, "The Crimson Tide has had six consecutive recruiting classes ranked No. 1 in the country, so the talent is there. Expect 'Bama to win in Atlanta and appear in the national title game at Raymond James Stadium."
A lot of folks feel the same way. As many believe, "As long as there's Nick, the Tide's the pick."
Worst
Though Saban has proven time after time that it doesn't take a dynamic quarterback to be successful running 'Bama's run-first offense, you can't have somebody who's going to turn the ball over. So, the Tide must have an able field general.
Also, there's a ton of hype surrounding running back Bo Scarbrough, but he has 104 rushing yards to his name in his college career.
The defense is going to be stout; there's too much talent for it not to be. But games in Texas against USC to start the year and SEC road tilts at Ole Miss, Tennessee and LSU won't be easy. If the Tide drop a couple of those games, it's going to be a disappointing year for a program with such high expectations.
It's hard to imagine a program as stable as UA finishing with single-digit victories, but that's possible if the Tide can't find anybody to get the ball to Calvin Ridley and O.J. Howard, especially if Scarbrough or somebody else struggles in the backfield.
Arkansas
2 of 14
Best
Last year, quarterback Brandon Allen went from serviceable starter to a dependable playmaker who threw 30 touchdown passes. With running back Alex Collins shredding defenses, the Hogs turned into a strong offense by the end of the year.
They're both gone, and Arkansas went just 8-5 with them in the fold. So, this year could be tough unless some things fall the Hogs' way.
A new Allen—Austin—is in the saddle at quarterback, and Bret Bielema is always going to have a bunch of capable runners in the backfield. Also, the defense has the potential to be really good.
If all that falls into place, Bielema can find a way to get his team to nine wins, and that would be a huge season in what is expected to be a bit of a rebuilding campaign. Everything set up for the Hogs a season ago, and they lost a shocking game to Toledo early in the year before being hit with the injury bug.
This season is going to be tough to handle, but Bielema is an excellent coach who could shock a lot of people with his low-key squad.
Worst
Allen and Collins are huge losses, and that isn't even mentioning Jonathan Williams, who didn't play a season ago due to injury. Those guys are going to be hard to replace on the Hogs' offense.
But they aren't the biggest losses.
That would be the massive offensive line (led by Sam Pittman, who departed to join Smart's staff at Georgia), which must replace three starters off last year's squad.
"We've got three or four moving parts that will factor into where it ends up," Bielema told ArkansasOnline.com's Matt Jones.
That's not good news for a team that plays at TCU and rotates Florida onto its schedule from the East. When you factor in the rugged West schedule, it's not difficult to see a losing record in Fayetteville. If that happens, Bielema's seat could heat up.
Auburn
3 of 14
Best
Welcome to the Auburn roller coaster, which is on top of the world one season and in the dumps the next.
Last year, it was the latter. The Tigers opened the year with lofty expectations and a dark horse Heisman Trophy mention in quarterback Jeremy Johnson. Once Johnson proved he wasn't the answer, AU needed a bunch of luck to beat FCS opponent Jacksonville State and went on to go 7-6.
Following on the heels of an 8-5 2014 season that saw Gus Malzahn's fall from grace a season after he took the Tigers to the national championship game in his first year as head coach on the Plains, the coach could be in trouble if he doesn't turn things around.
The Tigers have a bunch of talent, especially at running back and on both lines of scrimmage. If a quarterback can step up, AU has sustained enough recruiting success everywhere else to be a load in the West.
That season opener against Clemson would be extremely difficult in the best of years, and this probably won't be that for Auburn. But winning nine is a possibility. To do that, AU would have to win two out of Clemson, LSU, Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss.
It will be tough, but not impossible. Much improved quarterback play is a must.
Worst
Yes, there's a lot of talent, but that quarterback conundrum is a messy one. Between Johnson, Sean White and a newcomer in former Florida State signal-caller John Franklin III, Malzahn has to find somebody who can run his offense.
That means getting back to a run-oriented, fast-paced, read-option attack that keeps defenses on the field and guessing. The past couple of seasons, poor play calling has led to wonders about whether the offense is too gimmicky to be consistently successful in the conference.
New defensive coordinator Kevin Steele was an interesting hire, too, and even if the veteran assistant pans out, it's difficult to imagine he'll be an upgrade over Muschamp.
The schedule is extremely tough, and if the Tigers don't win a couple of toss-up games such as home against Arkansas and at Mississippi State, the season could go south quickly. If that happens, a bowl game isn't even a certainty.
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Florida
4 of 14
Best
There is a lot of buzz surrounding Gainesville with new offensive stalwarts in transfer quarterback Luke Del Rio and JUCO transfer running back Mark Thompson.
Florida linebacker Jarrad Davis had big praise for the new signal-caller at SEC media days, and even though McElwain hasn't named a starter yet, it sure sounds like Del Rio has the upper hand, according to the Orlando Sentinel's Edgar Thompson.
"He's very confident. He goes out there and he knows what he needs to do. He knows how to get things done. He’s somebody that doesn’t step down from any challenge either. To have that in your quarterback, he’s gutsy, but at the same time the risks seem like they always pay off with him. He makes a lot of big plays out there with his arm, and that's awesome to see.
"
Thompson is a big, bruising runner (6'2", 242 lbs) who could control games on the ground. Though the Gators still have some offensive line issues, they should be improved over last year's rag-tag group.
With the defense expected to be stellar yet again, it's not hard to see Florida repeating as SEC East champions. After all, they own Tennessee until the Vols prove they can get over that 11-year hump, and Georgia has some issues, too. The Gators could be in Atlanta again if things fall right.
Worst
The Gators were anything but world-beaters toward the end of last season, limping to the finish line with a woeful offense devoid of playmakers.
Things may not get a lot better this season if Del Rio and Thompson fall short of expectations. After all, Del Rio hasn't been able to latch on at Alabama or Oregon State, so there are no guarantees he'll be the answer to the question marks in Gainesville.
Throw in the uncertainty surrounding receivers Antonio Callaway and Treon Harris, and UF has some issues with potential big parts of its offense.
Davis and Jalen Tabor are dynamic playmakers on defense, but losses of players such as Vernon Hargreaves III and Jonathan Bullard won't be easy to replace. It's hard to see Florida finishing lower than third in the division, but that's a possibility if the Gators slump in McElwain's second season.
No matter how much they own them, it's going to be tough for the Gators to go to Knoxville and win. Other tough tests loom, too. So, it's going to be tough to repeat.
Georgia
5 of 14
Best
It was shocking when Georgia finally decided winning 10 games a year wasn't quite good enough and fired coach Mark Richt after years and years of being good but not great.
When the Bulldogs hired favorite son Smart to be the new head coach, they gambled on a guy who has never led a program. But with a championship pedigree built at Alabama and recruiting at the highest level so far, the swagger is back in Athens.
Smart made savvy hires in offensive line coach Pittman and offensive coordinator Jim Chaney, who has a wealth of SEC experience. If Mel Tucker can mold all these star recruits into a quality defense, the Dawgs could be good on that side of the ball.
If Nick Chubb and Sony Michel can get healthy relatively quickly, and if Jacob Eason can be a star in his true freshman season, UGA could overcome a lack of experience with elite talent. If they can do that, the Bulldogs may just capitalize on the momentum and win the East.
Worst
There are a lot of questions about the health of Chubb and Michel. Everybody knows about Chubb's gruesome knee injury suffered last year against Tennessee, and now Michel broke his forearm in an ATV accident that could keep him out a couple of months.
Smart said at SEC media days (h/t ESPN.com's Mark Schlabach) that both runners would be limited when fall practice starts next month.
"It makes it tough," Smart said. "I think it's a little more stressful for the coaches, especially the offensive coaches, on how we handle those first two scrimmages. Our identity is being big and physical and we want to run the ball. Well, our two backs that are best at doing that have two question marks by them."
If Eason is ready, he needs a strong running game to help him along. If he isn't, how much confidence does anybody really have in Greyson Lambert or Brice Ramsey?
Plus there are other questions all over the field for Georgia. There isn't a shortage of talent at all, but with games against North Carolina and at Ole Miss, the schedule isn't really easy. Winning seven games is a possibility.
Smart is in the infancy stages of building a deep, talented squad. But it probably won't be there yet this year.
Kentucky
6 of 14
Best
It's going to be hard to fire Mark Stoops with his massive buyout, but the Kentucky coach really needs to step up his game in 2016 for the pressure cooker to simmer.
Even with all the stellar recruiting he's done to the Bluegrass State, the Wildcats have still yet to make a bowl game under the fourth-year coach. They've gotten off to hot starts each of the past two seasons and then folded when the schedule got tougher.
According to CampusInsiders.com's Brian Stultz, Shoop is determined to fix those late-season issues:
"I think you used the word 'collapse.' I don't think I would ever use that word because they weren't. I just said they were very competitive games. Very good games that could have gone either way. It's very stiff competition from a bunch of teams that have been doing things right for a long time, recruiting great players and doing a lot of things. As a lot of coaches mentioned, there's a lot of close games in here. Certainly we have to do our part to do what it takes to make those plays.
"
There are eight possible wins on the schedule this year with Southern Miss, New Mexico State, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Missouri, Austin Peay and Louisville, and that would be a phenomenal step forward for a program needing a jolt.
Does UK finally have enough defensive depth even though it lost some key players? Will quarterback Drew Barker live up to expectations as a recruit where physically gifted Patrick Towles failed? Can running back Boom Williams stay healthy, and will Stoops let him be the focal point of the offense?
If all those things happen, seven or eight wins is possible.
Worst
Kentucky's defense could have a trio of stars in the secondary with Derrick Baity, Mike Edwards and Chris Westry, but there isn't a lot of proven depth elsewhere.
When you take away the sure-fire contributors from the front seven on any SEC team, it's tough to see the unit being very good. Also, even though the SEC East is down, it's hard to think UK will pose much of a threat to the top three in Tennessee, Florida and Georgia.
If the Wildcats mess around and fall behind Vanderbilt or Mississippi State or even South Carolina, those games will be tough to win, and Stoops' ice could get a lot thinner. Also, UK is a Barker or Williams injury away from being devoid of proven playmakers on offense.
Stoops has experienced enough recruiting wins to have some nice players in Lexington, but there aren't enough household names on the roster to believe UK will make a bunch of noise. Fourth in the division may be a ceiling, but if some things don't fall right, the Wildcats could struggle yet again.
That would make for some very difficult decisions for athletic director Mitch Barnhart, and they'll be counting down the days till basketball season again.
LSU
7 of 14
Best
Like a whole lot of SEC teams, LSU has quarterback issues, especially if Brandon Harris doesn't make significant strides in his junior season.
The 6'3", 206-pounder has the arm and legs to be a force in offensive coordinator Cam Cameron's offense, but he must put it all together. If he does, he'll team with perhaps the nation's most talented player in running back Leonard Fournette, who is a one-man wrecking crew.
Add a passing game to Fournette, and the runner will be unstoppable. When you toss in a talented, experienced defense led by one of the hottest, young defensive coordinators in the game in first-year assistant Dave Aranda, who Les Miles plucked from Wisconsin, and that could be a recipe for a championship.
There is depth and experience, and the team should be playing with a chip on its shoulder after Miles was nearly ousted a season ago. Things are lining up for the Tigers to unseat Alabama at least temporarily in the West.
If they don't do it, they may be looking for a new coach next year, wrote CBSSports.com's Dennis Dodd:
"The administration has already drawn up sort of a template for us to go by for 2016: beat Alabama, win the SEC West and play for the conference championship for the first time in five years. When Miles didn't do any of that last year, he came within 30 minutes of being fired. That administration decided at halftime of the regular-season finale against Texas A&M that Miles was too expensive ($15 million buyout), too popular (with the fans) and too good to can.
"
LSU should be really good; like College Football Playoffs good. That all hinges on Harris.
Worst
The Tigers are too talented to not be really good, but just how good do they have to be this year to settle any lingering unrest?
As envious as folks on the Bayou are of Saban, especially since he was once the head coach at LSU, the season (for better or worse) really hinges on beating Alabama. If that happens, it's difficult to see the Tigers failing to get to Atlanta, and, from there, that could mean bigger things.
But Harris is shaky, and Cameron has yet to prove he can develop a quarterback at LSU. The defensive line is all back from a season ago, but the young linebacking corps hasn't proven anything in game situations.
Alabama, Ole Miss and perhaps even Texas A&M are capable of derailing all the positive buzz being discussed by folks when it comes to the Tigers' prospects. It's hard to envision them winning fewer than 10 games with all that talent.
But is that going to be enough to make the Tigers happy? Or is this year win big or bust?
Mississippi State
8 of 14
Best
There's a reason why Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen is a coveted name when jobs come open around the country.
Urban Meyer's former offensive coordinator has built a reputation for himself in Starkville, a place that isn't the easiest to recruit to or win. A lot of the reason for that was the success of recently departed senior quarterback Dak Prescott, who set records and turned the Bulldogs into a conference stalwart.
With him gone, it's going to be extremely tough to replicate the success.
Thankfully for MSU, it returns star receiver Fred Ross and running back Brandon Holloway, a pair of players who could help ease the burden for the next Bulldogs quarterback.
A.J. Jefferson and Richie Brown will be stars on new coordinator Peter Sirmon's defense, and the Bulldogs have surprised in the past when people thought they'd struggle. Winning eight or nine games will be really tough, but Mullen probably has some tricks that could possibly make that happen.
Especially if he finds a capable signal-caller.
Worst
Replacing Prescott is going to be next-to-impossible.
You can't just create another a player to fill the role of a player who was perhaps the most recognizable, decorated athlete in your program's history quickly and without a hiccup. Four guys—Nick Fitzgerald, Damien Williams, Elijah Staley and Nick Tiano—are vying for that job.
While it's going to be tough to match Prescott's production, his leadership may prove just as difficult to replicate. Ross is trying to do that, according to GridironNow's Kevin Connell.
"Dak is one of the hardest-working guys I know. It's crazy to see how hard he works that he still has energy left to do what he has to do. So just from the leadership standpoint, I've just taken some things from him as far as hard work and just going hard each and every day because I've seen him do it, so I know it's possible.
"
Is it probable, though? How tough is it going to be for MSU to battle in the West without Prescott, not to mention Ross' right-hand man, receiver De'Runnya Wilson. When Fred Brown was dismissed in April, Ross became the sole receiving weapon.
With MSU's tough West schedule, it won't be easy to get to six wins. Throw in a cross-country trip to BYU, and that isn't a cakewalk win, either. It's going to be an uphill battle to get to eight victories.
Missouri
9 of 14
Best
The Tigers had to replace legendary coach Gary Pinkel, and they are coming off one of the worst offensive seasons in SEC history a season ago. So, what's the best-case scenario for first-year coach Barry Odom?
Right now, that would be to provide a little stability to a tumultuous program (more on that later).
Nobody is expecting the Tigers to contend for the SEC East in 2016, but sophomore quarterback Drew Lock needs to be much better, and MU needs to find a couple of dependable playmakers on an offense that was historically putrid a season ago.
If they can do that, the defense is good enough to keep them in plenty of ball games. Odom is known for being a defensive genius, and he's got a ton of talent such as Terry Beckner Jr., Charles Harris and Harold Brantley. The latter is doing much better after missing last year after a car accident.
"He's made a lot of progress," Odom told the Columbia Daily Tribune's Blake Toppmeyer. "It’s day to day for him just getting back and always learning, reteaching himself how to run, to change of direction. He had a significant number of surgeries that has taken some time to get over."
As bad as Mizzou could be, it could start the season 5-0 after games against Southeast Missouri, Arkansas State, Connecticut, Kentucky and South Carolina. Vanderbilt, BYU, Mississippi State and Arkansas are winnable, too.
So, it isn't impossible to see seven wins, but that would be a huge success for Odom's first year given the issues inherited.
Worst
Few programs in the nation have as much turmoil as Missouri right now, especially after athletic director Mack Rhoades left for another program under fire (Baylor) just this week.
USA Today's Dan Wolken noted just how eye-opening Rhoades' decision was when it comes to the challenges Mizzou now faces:
"The same Baylor that just fired everyone—president, athletics director, football coach—after an investigation into how the school handled sexual assault complaints involving athletes. The same Baylor whose football program is going to lose two years of recruiting when the next coach comes in, setting it up for a significant fall from the national contender status it has grown accustomed to over the last few years. The same Baylor that is going to face years' worth of lawsuits, potential donor issues, enrollment struggles and potentially involvement from the Big 12 and NCAA. So if Baylor is a complete mess at the moment, what does that make Mizzou?
"
The reality is, it's going to be tough for Mizzou to make a bowl game, even with the favorable schedule. There are too many offensive question marks, especially considering the Tigers may have to replace its entire offensive line.
Last year, MU went 5-7 and won just one SEC game. The Tigers will improve on that conference record this year, but, at worst, the final record could wind up the same.
Ole Miss
10 of 14
Best
Let's say Hugh Freeze and the Rebels can use all this negative attention on the NCAA investigation and the NFL draft night comments and from former offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil to their advantage.
Maybe they'll band together with an "us-against-the-world" mentality. Even if the hammer winds up dropping in the future, it could be a big year on the field for the Rebels. And in a best-case scenario world, maybe all this talk about sanctions is overblown.
Keeping things strictly on the field, Ole Miss has the conference's best quarterback in Chad Kelly, who has a stable of talented receivers to throw to. While the offensive line is a major question mark again, the Rebels should be improved running the football this year.
If they can forget about the off-field woes, you can combine that offense with a "Landsharks" defense that still has a slew of playmakers despite losing Robert and Denzel Nkemdiche. The defensive line is loaded, and defensive back Tony Conner could be an All-America candidate.
Freeze has built Ole Miss to the point where it has the talent to make its first trip to Atlanta to play for the SEC title. If the Rebels can get past LSU and Alabama and do that, they'll make a case for bigger things if they can win the conference.
This team has that potential.
Worst
Everything could come crashing down in Oxford.
That may seem dramatic, but it's possible. The tone was certainly ominous this week at SEC media days when Freeze told the Clarion-Ledger's Daniel Paulling and other reporters:
"Whatever we did wrong, we should be held accountable if there are things. We should. In and around our program. And we will be. But the time for that to be decided is not in articles or me trying to have another interview. Like I said from the beginning, the time and day for us to be held accountable is coming. I don’t know when.
"
Yikes.
If something big happens in the midst of the season or just before it, it may not bode well for the Rebels to stay focused on on-field things.
Also, there are still offensive line issues, and no running back has proven he can carry the load for Freeze as of yet, either. If Ole Miss doesn't get those two issues fixed, it will be yet another season of watching the conference championship game from home.
South Carolina
11 of 14
Best
First-year Gamecocks head coach Muschamp got awful news when one of his true leaders and quality players—senior linebacker Skai Moore—was lost for the season with a neck injury.
That made a tough job even more difficult.
But it's not all bad news in Columbia. Though trying to rebuild what legendary coach Steve Spurrier allowed to falter his final two seasons won't be easy, there are some building blocks, at least. The roster isn't particularly talented, but freshman quarterback Brandon McIlwain looked like he had special potential in the spring.
Sure, it was just a spring game, but it embodied some hope in Columbia. Throw in the possibility that the Gamecocks could be 4-0 with wins over Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, East Carolina and Kentucky when Texas A&M comes to town, and things could be going in the right direction in a hurry for Muschamp.
There are seven wins on a relatively easy schedule for Carolina without much of an upset. If the Gamecocks can win a game or two they aren't supposed to, it would be a wildly successful first step of a rebuild for Muschamp.
Worst
Did we mention Spurrier didn't do a particularly good job recruiting his past couple of years?
South Carolina's defense has been downright abysmal the past two seasons, and that's something Muschamp and coordinator Travaris Robinson will try to rectify this year. Unfortunately, it's not an overnight fix.
Muschamp may not be, either. He failed at Florida, going 28-21 in a four-year stint that saw him fired. That was why a South Carolina program that had longer than anybody else to hire a coach made a puzzling decision by showing faith in him. Will it pay off?
If there aren't signs this year, there will be questions, wrote The State's Josh Kendall: "Nobody is saying there’s any chance Muschamp’s job is in jeopardy in the next year, but there is a real issue at the heart of this conversation and that is this: The Gamecocks’ new coach won’t get the benefit of the doubt usually afforded new coaches."
Yes, Clemson awaits at the end of South Carolina's schedule, as always. But the Gamecocks are going to have to be awful not to find six wins on an easy schedule. If they don't get bowl-eligible, there will be reason to worry.
Tennessee
12 of 14
Best
There are so many people predicting Tennessee to win the SEC East, it's time to get nervous if you're a Vols fan. After all, this is a team that lost four games a season ago, right?
That's true, but coach Butch Jones's team also led all those games late, and they return perhaps the best mixture of talent, experience and depth in the conference. That distinction is between them and LSU.
Quarterback Joshua Dobbs, running backs Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara, defensive end Derek Barnett, linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin and cornerback Cameron Sutton are just a few of the talented players who are All-SEC candidates.
That's why there are big aspirations.
"It's not where you start, it's where you finish," Jones said according to WBIR.com's Luke Slabaugh. "One of the things we've talked to [our recruits] about is getting Tennessee football back to relevance, getting Tennessee football back in the conversations where it belongs."
The schedule gets a little better for the Vols this year, but their season will be determined in a four-game stretch that includes games at home against Florida, at Georgia, at Texas A&M and home against Alabama in consecutive weeks from Sept. 24-Oct. 14.
Win three of those, and it's not out of the question UT could win the East. If the Vols get past that game, they've got the players to make it to the College Football Playoff. Yes, it's a big step, but there are a lot of reasons for hope.
Worst
Tennessee has won some pretty big games in the past couple of years, but the Vols still haven't beaten Florida or Alabama, and there are no guarantees that will happen this year, either.
Also, the "Battle at Bristol" neutral-site game against Virginia Tech is no gimme.
With massive expectations come a heavy burden, and the Vols have to get used to being the favorites. With all the experience and leadership on the roster, it looks like they're poised to handle it, but if there's some early-season adversity thrown in the spokes, what happens?
Jones has recruited extremely well, but he's yet to prove he's a great coach. Collapses against Oklahoma, Florida and Arkansas a season ago are reasons for pause. If the Vols clam up in close games again this year, there are plenty of reasons to worry.
Another 9-4 season is a possibility, but if that happens, there will be more than a few grumbles on Rocky Top.
Texas A&M
13 of 14
Best
Kevin Sumlin has experienced a rocky couple of years in College Station, but even though the Aggies aren't as loaded at quarterback as they were last year, they've still got plenty of talent.
When Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray both transferred, major red flags were raised. But A&M got a commitment from senior transfer Trevor Knight, and if he can return to the form of his redshirt freshman year at Oklahoma, there is plenty of talent everywhere else for A&M to shock a lot of folks.
Knight told the media he has a little experience in the SEC, according to AL.com's Michael Casagrande, recalling wins over Alabama in the 2013 Sugar Bowl and against Tennessee the past two years.
"I've played against a few SEC teams so I think that's a good thing coming into this conference being familiar with the type of offenses and the type of defenses and even getting to go to Neyland Stadium last year and play Tennessee," Knight said. "That was a great atmosphere so I've gotten a little taste of it."
If he can regain form, he has easily the most talented receiving corps in the league. With all those talented defensive players (led by Myles Garrett) entering year two under coordinator John Chavis, it could be a big year.
Say what you want about Sumlin's off-field worries, but the Aggies have the talent to get to double-digit wins.
Worst
If the wheels came off a bit off the field, how will things be on it?
Knight's reputation really has been built off that Sugar Bowl win, and that was more than three years ago. Just because he's experienced and has a lot of talent around him doesn't guarantee that he'll be successful. If he falters, there could be real quarterback issues in College Station.
There's also not a proven running attack, and the back seven of A&M's defense is largely unproven despite having a bunch of highly rated recruits.
Personnel and coaching questions abound, and there is the possibility that this could be Sumlin's final year if he doesn't get the program back on firmer footing.
The West schedule is always going to be difficult with Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss looming. This isn't the year to draw Tennessee, either, and even though the Aggies have that game at home, it won't be easy.
Lose those four games, and the questions remain. Lose more than that, and there could be trouble.
Vanderbilt
14 of 14
Best
After a first-year disaster in Nashville, coach Derek Mason's team showed a little bit of life a season ago.
The Commodores still finished 4-8 but played very close games against Western Kentucky, Ole Miss and Florida in narrow losses. They also found a potential quality quarterback in freshman Kyle Shurmur and a star running back with Ralph Webb.
Webb will carry the load again this year, and if Vandy can find a couple of able targets for Shurmur, the son of long-time NFL assistant Pat Shurmur could develop into a problem for SEC defenses. Add in the fact that VU's defense improved dramatically when Mason took over as his own coordinator, and the team is intriguing.
Will the Commodores be good enough to get to a bowl game? Their goal needs to be fourth in the East right now.
That season opener against South Carolina is huge for the direction of the program. Win that game, and a bowl is possible. They'd have to beat Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky, Kentucky, Tennessee State and Missouri, most likely, but that isn't hard to fathom.
Georgia Tech nor Auburn are sure losses, either.
Vanderbilt isn't a blip on most people's radar, nor should they be yet. But they also shouldn't be taken lightly. Making a bowl game is the ultimate goal, and that would be a commendable ceiling this year.
Worst
Vanderbilt's brand of bad is putrid by SEC standards, and the Commodores are very capable of being very bad.
Nobody is going to praise Mason's recruiting, especially after he followed James Franklin, who did as well as anybody ever has luring prospects to VU. But Mason needs to prove his chops on the sideline.
He made some terrible decisions in 2014, but he seemed to learn from them a season ago. It remains to be seen how far those will take him and his team.
Shurmur must prove to be a playmaker under center, and it's vital that Vanderbilt find some offensive weapons to go along with Webb. The junior running back is a centerpiece, but he can't do everything himself.
VU's schedule isn't that easy, and if the 'Dores lose to the Gamecocks to start the year, another four-win season is possible. If that happens to Mason, he'll have a difficult time explaining a positive direction of the program.
All information gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information gathered from 247Sports unless otherwise noted. All stats gathered at CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted.
Brad Shepard covers SEC football and is the Tennessee lead writer for Bleacher Report. Follow Brad on Twitter @Brad_Shepard.
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