SEC Extra Points: What to Make of the Current SEC Championship Odds
Media days are just around the corner, fall camp is a month away and we are inching closer to the kickoff of the 2016 college football season.
Las Vegas and offshore oddsmakers have you covered.
Bovada (via Kevin McGuire of College Football Talk) released its odds to win each SEC division as well as the SEC Championship Game, and there are a few surprises in there:
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The first thing that jumps out to me is the lack of love for defending SEC East champion Florida.
The Gators have 18-1 odds to win the SEC title? The same odds as Auburn and worse odds than Texas A&M?
Really?
I'm not into giving unsolicited gambling advice. But here's some unsolicited gambling advice—throw a few bucks on Florida with those odds.
Head coach Jim McElwain and Co. have one of the best defenses in the country that includes stars like lineman Caleb Brantley, linebacker Jarrad Davis, safety Marcus Maye and cornerbacks Jalen Tabor and Quincy Wilson.
That's a foundation that Auburn, Texas A&M and Ole Miss—all with better SEC title odds than the Gators and with more difficult paths to the SEC Championship Game out of the SEC West—simply can't boast.
That's not to say that those three SEC West teams won't be competitive. They will be. But Florida has a much better foundation to build off of, an easier path to Atlanta and has already tasted that success in McElwain's first year as a head coach
Do the Gators have questions?
Of course.
The offensive line was an abject disaster down the stretch last year, Kelvin Taylor was a reliable running back and the quarterback situation is still somewhat of a question heading into the 2016 season. But the struggles of the line last year should help the youngsters grow; the trio of Mark Thompson, Jordan Cronkrite and Jordan Scarlett should be able to shoulder much of the load on the ground, and Luke Del Rio looked solid in the spring game when he completed 10 of 11 passes and tossed two touchdowns.
But it seems like the failed Treon Harris experiment during the final eight games of 2015 has left a sour taste in the public's mouth, which seems hesitant to buy into the Gators. Don't fall into that trap. They'll be the primary contender to presumptive favorite Tennessee in the SEC East. If they get to Atlanta, they'll only be 60 minutes away from cashing in on those long odds.
The other primary thing that jumps out is the expectation for LSU to bounce back from two subpar seasons for head coach Les Miles.
There are plenty of reasons for that buzz, including the return of several key defensive players, the presence of new defensive coordinator Dave Aranda and Heisman Trophy contender Leonard Fournette at running back. But LSU has its detractors—present company included—who aren't buying into this team being much different than last year's squad due to a rigid and ultraconservative offensive philosophy.
What isn't debatable, though, is that the high expectations that exist nationwide for the Tigers puts even more pressure on Miles—who nearly lost his job last November when his crew dropped three games and fell out of the national title race.
Would 9-3 with a loss to Alabama and no SEC West title keep Miles safe? At this point, I'd lean toward "no" due in part to the fact that those 7-2 odds to win the SEC title have raised expectations to a point where last year's late-season fade route is almost an afterthought this offseason.
Lastly, Vanderbilt should absolutely not be the least likely team to win the SEC East and the SEC title.
In fact, it shouldn't be anywhere near the cellar.
The Commodores finished fourth in the SEC East last year, boasted a defense that finished fourth in the nation in red-zone touchdown percentage (38.78 percent) and sixth in third-down defense (28.16 percent).
With a solid defense, a 1,000-yard rusher in Ralph Webb who accomplished that with virtually no help from his passing game and a newly established starting quarterback in Kyle Shurmur heading into fall camp, the Commodores aren't the worst team in the SEC. At worst, they're the fourth-best team in the East heading into the season.
It's Settled
Tennessee settled the sexual assault lawsuit brought forth by eight women for $2.48 million, according to Nate Rau and Anita Wadhwani of the Tennessean. According to the report, that figure includes legal fees.
As a result of the settlement, head football coach Butch Jones, athletics director Dave Hart and other administrators will not be deposed or face questioning for various aspects of the case. While the settlement doesn't put to rest the Title IX aspect of the case, it does put one huge aspect of the scandal in the rearview mirror and eliminates a few of the possible distractions that could have popped up this year for the Vols.
For Jones, that's important, because from a pure football perspective, he'd be the primary person associated with the football program who conceivably could be distracted during the ongoing case.
The question I have for Tennessee is why did it come to this?
In the grand scheme of things, $2.48 million isn't that much money for a $126.6 million athletic department when you subtract legal fees and divide it among eight people. The plaintiffs also released a statement acknowledging that the university "has made significant progress in the way they educate and respond to sexual assault cases." If that's what it took to settle the case, why did Tennessee take so long to provide those concessions and let this drag on essentially all offseason?
Tennessee has rightfully been cast in an extremely negative light by the case during a year in which sexual assault allegations—particularly the Baylor case which resulted in the dismissal of head coach Art Briles—have been at the forefront of the national conversation.
The program could have saved itself a lot of national embarrassment by taking action a long time ago.
Sudden Depth
When former Oklahoma running back Alex Ross signed with Missouri last month as a graduate transfer, it was a welcome addition at a position that the Tigers desperately needed immediate help.
Why? At the time, it looked like junior college transfer Natereace Strong wouldn't make the required grades until January.
Yeah...about that.
According to Gabe DeArmond of PowerMizzou.com, Strong has qualified academically and enrolled at the school.
Suddenly, Missouri's ground attack seems to be in good hands with Ross' home run-hitting ability and Strong—a 6'1", 210-pound former 4-star prospect at Hinds Community College—who is a pure all-purpose back that can handle the work between the tackles.
Will it lead Missouri back to a bowl game?
That hinges on the offensive line's ability to protect and quarterback Drew Lock taking the next step. But Strong's presence on the roster provides a little stability to a position that desperately needed it about a month ago.
Year of the Linebacker
While the quarterback position might be at its most depressing state in recent memory, the linebacker position is the polar opposite.
NFL.com's Lance Zierlein ranked the top linebackers to watch during the 2016 college football season, and his list contains a distinct SEC flavor. His rankings were as follows: Florida's Jarrad Davis (No. 1), Alabama's Reuben Foster (No. 4), Tennessee's Jalen Reeves-Maybin (No. 5), Vanderbilt's Zach Cunningham (No. 6) and LSU's Kendell Beckwith (No. 9).
The SEC boasts half of the top 10 linebackers in the country—without including Arkansas' Brooks Ellis, Mississippi State's Richie Brown, Alabama pass-rusher extraordinaire Tim Williams, Auburn graduate transfer T.J. Neal, Texas A&M's Otaro Alaka or Georgia's Lorenzo Carter and Davin Bellamy.
I could list more, but I think you get the point.
While many will peg this as the "year of the running back" in the SEC with guys like Fournette, Georgia's Nick Chubb, Tennessee's Jalen Hurd, Auburn's Jovon Robinson in the fold, it's actually the "year of the linebacker."
And that battle isn't even close.
Quick Outs
- Ryan Krasnoo of Sports Illustrated reported on Wednesday that, as a result of Michigan renewing its rivalry with Notre Dame, the Wolverines will be forced to cancel its scheduled home date with Arkansas. While it's great for the sport to have Michigan and Notre Dame square off, it would have been nice to see Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema return to Big Ten country.
- Auburn and Southern Miss announced games in Auburn on Sept. 29, 2018, and Sept. 26, 2020. While many will peg this as a "cupcake," the Golden Eagles were 9-5 last year and somewhat of a regional rival that would love nothing more than to knock the Tigers off. It's a solid out-of-conference matchup in seasons in which Auburn is still waiting to fill the Power Five mandate that the SEC requires.
- Alabama linebacker Adonis Thomas, a redshirt freshman and former 4-star prospect from Lawrenceville, Georgia, will leave the program in search of more playing time, AL.com's Matt Zenitz reported. Thomas wasn't listed on my Bleacher Report colleague Christopher Walsh's post-spring depth chart projection, and would likely have been relegated to special teams work in 2016. Thomas is too talented to ride the pine, so it's no shock that he's seeking greener pastures. When you win five straight recruiting national titles like Alabama has, sometimes you can't keep all of your prospects happy.
Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com unless otherwise noted. Recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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