2016 NBA Free Agency: Everything You Need to Know from Day 4
Kevin Durant's decision to join the Golden State Warriors nuked the NBA news cycle, which makes it easy to overlook the fallout headed the Oklahoma City Thunder's way.
Now clearly something less than a present title contender, the Thunder must act quickly to salvage their future. And that starts with figuring out where Russell Westbrook's head is at. Shortly after Durant announced his intentions on The Player's Tribune, Westbrook's focus was...elsewhere:
If his holiday hasn't been interrupted already, Westbrook will soon get a call from OKC general manager Sam Presti, at which point he'll either preserve or further demolish the Thunder's shot at ongoing relevance. With his own unrestricted free agency looming in 2017, Westbrook has the power to finish the one-two punch Durant started.
Losing a second superstar for nothing would be devastating, so Presti needs to quickly assess whether or not Westbrook would consider an uncertainty-eliminating extension. Bad news on that front: Extending now, before yet another salary cap spike in 2017, makes little financial sense for Westbrook.
It's still an option, though, per Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com: "The All-Star guard is slated to earn $17.8 million this season, is eligible to add up to $8 million to his contract and can add years to the deal and take himself off the free agent market in 2017."
That market will feature a salary cap of roughly $107 million, which would significantly increase the payout on Westbrook's next maximum-salary deal. Turning down an extension would also, of course, leave Westbrook free to choose from among many deep-pocketed, possibly better-positioned suitors.
Royce Young of ESPN.com reports the Thunder aren't especially concerned with Westbrook jumping ship a year from now: "Those inside the Thunder organization were long concerned about outside forces swaying Durant to leave; they don't feel that way about Westbrook. As one team source said, this will only make Westbrook want to stay more."
That's a nice sentiment, but Oklahoma City can't lean too hard on an ultra-competitive Westbrook sticking around just to prove he can lead his own team to glory. Especially not when the financial incentives make preserving unrestricted free agency so appealing.
Yes, it's possible Westbrook might value the security of signing a long-term deal sooner. That immediate $8 million bump next season is also significant. But the allure of total freedom in 2017, with the cap spiking again, makes an extension the weaker option.
That means Presti may soon be forced to contemplate trading a star player a year sooner than necessary, which he's done before. Twice.
It's kind of his thing, and he's taking a predictably positive, proactive approach, per Ben Golliver of Sports Illustrated:
If the Los Angeles Lakers were willing to part with D'Angelo Russell or Brandon Ingram and a first-rounder, maybe that would be worth pursuing. Or perhaps the Boston Celtics would surrender starting-caliber talent and those Brooklyn Nets picks in 2017 and 2018.
Then again, maybe the Thunder already made their forward-looking move when they swapped Serge Ibaka for Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova and Domantas Sabonis. Looking back, that draft-day deal looks a lot more like a contingency plan than a win-now-to-keep-KD gambit. In fact, that move could have been made with the possibility of losing both Durant and Westbrook in mind.
Remember, too, that the Thunder may not be able to expect a dollar-for-dollar return on any Westbrook trade. Other teams know his free-agency status.
If you're the Lakers, why give up anything if you think you can sign Westbrook outright in a year—especially when adding him sooner would hurt your lottery odds by improving your 2016-17 record? And if you're Westbrook, why would you want your next team to weaken itself in the process of acquiring you?
No matter what they do—negotiate to keep Westbrook, move him or look for other trade options to bolster the roster around him—the Thunder are operating with little leverage.
Durant gave the the franchise nine years. Westbrook, so far, has given eight. Bad luck and injuries were the only things preventing those two from winning multiple rings in Oklahoma City.
However this shakes out, the Thunder will long be haunted by the massive size of the championship window they failed to climb through. And while it may be of small consolation, they can at least approach their dealings with Westbrook with some control over the outcome.
There are many painful aspects of Durant leaving that will sting Oklahoma City for years to come, but the greatest hurt may come from what was, in the end, total powerlessness to keep him. By addressing the Westbrook situation now, the Thunder can avoid similar impotence next summer.
The Warriors Kept Working
Fitting Durant's two-year, $54.3 million deal into the books meant the Warriors had to make some additional moves.
By renouncing their rights to Festus Ezeli and Harrison Barnes, then trading Andrew Bogut to the Dallas Mavericks, Golden State quickly created room under its cap for Durant's new salary. With Barnes agreeing to a four-year, $94 million offer sheet with the Mavs, per Stein, Dallas managed to import 40 percent of a starting lineup that won 73 games last year.
Barnes and Bogut proved to be the most replaceable components of that lineup, but hey, not bad, right?
They even grabbed former Warrior and MVP sibling Seth Curry, an unrestricted free agent late of the Sacramento Kings, for two years and $6 million, per Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical. So, you know...close enough.
Dallas is hoping Barnes turns out to be more than a fifth option, but little in the four-year veteran's track record suggests he'll live up to his salary. Bogut, on the other hand, is a terrific value. He'll make just $11.1 million on the final year of his deal in 2016-17.
Continuing the Dallas-Golden State asset swapping, the Warriors agreed with Zaza Pachulia on a one-year, $2.9 million pact using their room mid-level exception, per Shams Charania of The Vertical. With him slotted in as the presumed starting center, Golden State now boasts a seven-man rotation of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Durant, Draymond Green, Pachulia, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston.
Though the Warriors could probably fill spots 8-15 with Oracle Arena parking attendants and fan contest winners, they won't have to. Last year's first-round pick Kevon Looney is still around after missing virtually all of his rookie year. He may get a look along with 2016 draftees Damian Jones and Patrick McCaw.
There will also probably be a handful of ring-chasing veterans looking to link up with what, on paper, appears to be the most formidable roster in league history.
Tim Duncan Makes Us Sad, While the Spurs Pivot
Wojnarowski reported San Antonio Spurs legend and league icon Tim Duncan is leaning strongly toward retirement.
Let us all observe a moment of silence for one of the greatest careers in NBA history.
San Antonio didn't spend too much time mourning; Duncan wouldn't have wanted it that way. It moved quickly, agreeing on a two-year, $30 million deal with Pau Gasol, per Wojnarowski.
Though Gasol won't come anywhere close to matching Duncan's impact on defense, his IQ, passing acumen and professionalism make him a fine fit. Pairing him up front with LaMarcus Aldridge won't be ideal against Golden State's revamped Death Lineup (which needs a new name now, by the way), but there just may not be an answer for the Warriors' closing unit.
Better to stockpile talent and worry about matching up with the scariest small-ball attack ever assembled later.
Let's Not Panic About Dwyane Wade
Yes, Dwyane Wade still plans to meet with the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday, per NBA.com's David Aldridge. And yes, the Miami Heat lifer is still technically an unrestricted free agent.
But it still boggles the mind to imagine Wade playing out what is almost certainly the very end of his prime anywhere else. Getting a two-year, $40 million offer from the Heat, per Michael Wallace of ESPN.com, helps assuage any concerns of a South Beach exit for the 12-time All-Star.
At the same time, Miami lavished big money on Hassan Whiteside, lost Luol Deng to the Lakers and hasn't landed the marquee free agent it generally guns for. Wade has never been his team's highest-paid player, and he's sacrificed money in each of his last two contracts.
He won't get a better short-term chance to win in Milwaukee, but it's at least understandable that he'd use the Bucks to make Miami sweat a little. This will likely resolve with Wade coming back, but you can kind of feel the tension, can't you? He did go to college at Marquette, after all.
The Knicks Are Being...Smart?
Reasonable minds could come down on either side of the Derrick Rose trade, but if you were among those hating it, you could justify that by noting it's generally correct to assume whatever the New York Knicks do is a mistake.
New York's actions since that move have, however, made it harder to take that default Knicks-are-nuts position.
They snagged Brandon Jennings on a one-year, $5 million deal Monday, per Vincent Goodwill of CSN Chicago. Then they followed it up with a Lance Thomas contract for four years, starting at $6.1 million per season, according to Ian Begley of ESPN.com.
Those are terrific values, especially if Jennings' play improves as he gets further away from his Achilles tear and Thomas' three-point shooting progress last year was real. Either way, they're low-cost, relatively low-risk moves. Renouncing Langston Galloway to fit Thomas' deal could be fairly criticized, but Galloway was subject to the Arenas rule, which meant he was a prime target to receive a backloaded four-year deal worth in excess of $60 million.
It's hard to be sure matching that would have made sense for the Knicks.
Now, it's still fair to criticize the Knicks' overall vision. Instead of adding veterans on reasonable deals (albeit ones that might be slightly too long) like Joakim Noah and Courtney Lee, perhaps they should be seeking young players in Kristaps Porzingis' age range to develop a long-term core.
But if we view New York's moves independently of that (possibly) shrewder alternative, most have been pretty reasonable.
This concludes the praising-the-Knicks portion of our program.
It's been weird.
Full Recap of Day 4 Deals
Every Day 4 deal with some non-signing-related tidbits thrown in:
- Kevin Durant agreed on a two-year, $54.3 million contract with the Warriors. He announced his decision on The Player's Tribune. Stein had the financials and the report that the second year will be a player option.
- Harrison Barnes and the Mavericks agreed on a four-year, $94 million max offer sheet, per Stein.
- Lance Thomas agreed to a four-year deal with the Knicks, starting at just $6.1 million per season with 7.5 percent annual raises, according to Begley.
- Pau Gasol agreed to a two-year, $30 million contract with the Spurs, per Wojnarowski.
- Tarik Black will stick with the Lakers after agreeing to a two-year, $12.85 million contract, per Charania.
- Ramon Sessions agreed to a two-year, $12.5 million contract with the Charlotte Hornets. Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer broke the story, while Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today reported the terms.
- Spanish guard Sergio Rodriguez will return to the NBA, joining the Philadelphia 76ers on a one-year, $8 million deal, per Charania.
- Seth Curry agreed to sign with the Mavericks for two years and $6 million, per Wojnarowski.
- The Warriors picked up Shaun Livingston's $5.8 million option for 2016-17, per Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated.
- Roy Hibbert agreed to a one-year, $5 million contract with the Hornets, per Wojnarowski.
- The Los Angeles Clippers used the bi-annual exception in agreeing to a two-year, $4.5 million deal with Luc Mbah a Moute, per Wojnarowski.
- Brandon Jennings agreed to a one-year, $5 million deal with the Knicks, per Stein.
